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-   -   Research firm says HD DVD sales will rise (https://www.highdefforum.com/high-definition-news-informative-articles/58712-research-firm-says-hd-dvd-sales-will-rise.html)

1up5dn 12-11-2007 10:43 PM

Research firm says HD DVD sales will rise
 
http://www.tgdaily.com/content/view/35221/113/

Interesting and not surprising. This is the way it has always worked.

Chris....

Chris Gerhard 12-12-2007 02:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1up5dn (Post 446441)
http://www.tgdaily.com/content/view/35221/113/

Interesting and not surprising. This is the way it has always worked.

Chris....

Sure, go ahead and give me one example of a format that started out so poorly and eventually reached mass adoption. Prices are already low and the product isn't selling.

Chris

anythingwt 12-12-2007 02:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris Gerhard (Post 447157)
Sure, go ahead and give me one example of a format that started out so poorly and eventually reached mass adoption. Prices are already low and the product isn't selling.

Chris


The only reason it isn't selling is because people simply don't know about it. Sales will only naturally go up over time.

mshulman 12-12-2007 03:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris Gerhard (Post 447157)
Sure, go ahead and give me one example of a format that started out so poorly and eventually reached mass adoption. Prices are already low and the product isn't selling.

Chris

I'm not sure we can.

But times are different. The big difference today is that you NEED an HDTV to benefit from either format. This requirement alone reduces the target audience by much more than any other previous format has had. Adoption should be expected to be slower. Even slower when you factor in 2 formats.

BobY 12-12-2007 05:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris Gerhard (Post 447157)
Sure, go ahead and give me one example of a format that started out so poorly and eventually reached mass adoption. Prices are already low and the product isn't selling.

Chris

But Blu-Ray discs aren't selling either so your point would be? :confused:

sam9007 12-12-2007 05:55 PM

Why does it say that blu ray is better?

I friken hate that BS!

I have seen both and own HD DVD but i am getting blu ray for my PS3 when i buy it.

THEY are the same!

Except how blu ray is retarded with there 1.0 and 2.0.

bruceames 12-12-2007 09:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mshulman (Post 447251)
I'm not sure we can.

But times are different. The big difference today is that you NEED an HDTV to benefit from either format. This requirement alone reduces the target audience by much more than any other previous format has had. Adoption should be expected to be slower. Even slower when you factor in 2 formats.

I rather consider Blu-ray as the new format and HD DVD as just an inevitable evolution of the existing DVD format necessitated by the advent of HDTV. (Chris) saying that HD optical might fail is the same as saying that HDTV will fail.

1up5dn 12-13-2007 01:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris Gerhard (Post 447157)
Sure, go ahead and give me one example of a format that started out so poorly and eventually reached mass adoption. Prices are already low and the product isn't selling.

Chris

Prices are only low sporadically. Soon, they will be $99 and under on a regular basis then things will start rolling. I would also name DVD as a format that took off somewhat slowly and then took over VHS.

Like these guys are trying to tell you, it really is just an evolution of DVD, not exactly an all new format.

Chris....

Chris Gerhard 12-13-2007 05:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1up5dn (Post 447869)
Prices are only low sporadically. Soon, they will be $99 and under on a regular basis then things will start rolling. I would also name DVD as a format that took off somewhat slowly and then took over VHS.

Like these guys are trying to tell you, it really is just an evolution of DVD, not exactly an all new format.

Chris....

No, DVD took off like a rocket compared to this and by the time players were selling for less than $200, many millions had been sold. The prices for DVD players didn't get as low as quickly as HD DVD player prices have, that part is amazing, but the extraordinarily poor sales have been the impetus for the giveaway prices, the product doesn't sell well even at low prices, but doesn't sell at all at any price comparable to Blu-ray player prices. DVD was the most successful product in consumer electronics product history. Launching in 1997 and selling tens of millions of players by 2001 and over 200 million software units by that time, DVD sold about 40 times the volume HD DVD will sell for the same period. It is a joke to say HD DVD and DVD both started off slowly and DVD reached mass adoption and so will HD DVD. DVD was gaining on VHS immediately, everybody was talking about the format and it was clear it would pass VHS and virtually everybody in the US would own the product. A comparable period for HD DVD and only a tiny group even understands what it is.

This simple article should give you some idea of how far off your comment is.

http://findarticles.com/p/articles/m...39/ai_59426634

A quote from the article:

Quote:

In its first three years on the market, DVD has outsold the VCR five to one (compared to the first three years of VCR sales) and has beat the audio CD four to one.
HD DVD despite prices which are a fraction of inflation adjusted prices for any of those consumer electronics big three products at this time in their lifespan, has only sold a small fraction of the volume DVD sold during the same period.

Chris

Chris Gerhard 12-13-2007 05:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BobY (Post 447409)
But Blu-Ray discs aren't selling either so your point would be? :confused:

My point is simple, the article indicates a belief that HD DVD hardware will start selling and mass adoption will be reached. The OP states this is how it always worked. I know that is false, I just asked for one example in the history of consumer electronics that has a format start so poorly and reach mass adoption. As far as I know, without exception every single example of a second place format in a format war has failed to do that. I have always stated that Blu-ray won't do well as long as we have two formats, but that Blu-ray will always do better than HD DVD in the market. I don't disagree that neither can ever amount to anything as long as this continues.

Chris

Chris Gerhard 12-13-2007 05:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sam9007 (Post 447413)
Why does it say that blu ray is better?

I friken hate that BS!

I have seen both and own HD DVD but i am getting blu ray for my PS3 when i buy it.

THEY are the same!

Except how blu ray is retarded with there 1.0 and 2.0.

Many people that want HD DVD to succeed repeat that line "quality is the same". I own both and believe Blu-ray is better. Same source, same codec, same bitrate, same care used for the transfer and the quality is the same for both, no doubt. Since Blu-ray can use much higher bitrates, Blu-ray objectively has to be better and all sites I have followed that provide subjective reviews indicate that Blu-ray is better on average. My PS3 indicated that "Disturbia", a Dreamworks title that was released on both formats has peak rates for audio/video exceeding 40Mbps, the HD DVD couldn't have exceeded 30Mbps. I haven't seen the "Disturbia" HD DVD and don't know whether AVC was used like the Blu-ray version or VC-1. I am still waiting for scientific evidence that any rate over 30Mbps is wasted and no benefit possible and I don't think that evidence will ever be presented. I doubt if the Blu-ray maximum rate of 48Mbps provides the absolute best possible quality, but I accept that 48Mbps is better than 30Mbps. The higher rate isn't needed with every title, but some have hard to render action scenes, extremely dark scenes or extremely bright scenes that can benefit from the extra bandwidth available. I will immediately concede that the technological advantage for Blu-ray will not have a signficant impact on the format war and certainly won't win the format war for Blu-ray, but I do take exception with the common claim that Blu-ray isn't better. Whether or not the improvement is material is up to each individual and dependent on a lot of factors. It may even be that most people wouldn't care about the quality difference and it may even be that most people don't care that both of these formats are better than DVD.

Chris

Nikopol 12-13-2007 05:52 AM

Chris,
the article states, that they believe we are near the end of the phase of early adoption in the life cycle of HDM. They expect the next phase to start 2008. It states, we the early adopters are not the ones, who decide this "war".

Quote:


[...]

TDG's survey of Americans found that those who already own a high-def DVD player are five times more likely to call themselves "early adopters" than those who don't. They were also more likely to want extra features such as high-tech gaming and top-of-the-line specifications. Because of this, "the remaining early adopters who have yet to buy a high-def DVD player and which (not surprisingly) show a preference for Blu-ray," said TDG in its report.

That crowd isn't the decider of the war, though, it says. The group claims that "mass-market consumers who, while less enthusiastic about technology per se and very price sensitive, are more likely to favor HD DVD," based on the data it received from survey respondents.

[...]
Itīs about having a suitable strategy for the next phase and HD DVD now has the notion of being the "affordable" format.

We will see, how "better" studio support, "better" technology and an expensive game console as the dominating hardware will work for BD in the next round.

Nikopol 12-13-2007 06:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris Gerhard (Post 448010)
Many people that want HD DVD to succeed repeat that line "quality is the same". I own both and believe Blu-ray is better. Same source, same codec, same bitrate, same care used for the transfer and the quality is the same for both, no doubt. Since Blu-ray can use much higher bitrates, Blu-ray objectively has to be better and all sites I have followed that provide subjective reviews indicate that Blu-ray is better on average. My PS3 indicated that "Disturbia", a Dreamworks title that was released on both formats has peak rates for audio/video exceeding 40Mbps, the HD DVD couldn't have exceeded 30Mbps. I haven't seen the "Disturbia" HD DVD and don't know whether AVC was used like the Blu-ray version or VC-1. I am still waiting for scientific evidence that any rate over 30Mbps is wasted and no benefit possible and I don't think that evidence will ever be presented. I doubt if the Blu-ray maximum rate of 48Mbps provides the absolute best possible quality, but I accept that 48Mbps is better than 30Mbps. The higher rate isn't needed with every title, but some have hard to render action scenes, extremely dark scenes or extremely bright scenes that can benefit from the extra bandwidth available. I will immediately concede that the technological advantage for Blu-ray will not have a signficant impact on the format war and certainly won't win the format war for Blu-ray, but I do take exception with the common claim that Blu-ray isn't better. Whether or not the improvement is material is up to each individual and dependent on a lot of factors. It may even be that most people wouldn't care about the quality difference and it may even be that most people don't care that both of these formats are better than DVD.

Chris

"I doubt if the Blu-ray maximum rate of 48Mbps provides the absolute best possible quality, but I accept that 48Mbps is better than 30Mbps. "

The maximum video bitrate for HD DVD is 29.4Mbps. HD DVD white paper, page 17
The maximum video bitrate for Blu-ray is 40.0Mbps. Blu-ray FAQ 3.3 with wrong info about HD DVD btw

Blu-ray has yet to prove, that can use their bitrate advantage to provide a significantly better pq. This could only be done, if the same source would be encoded for HD DVD and Blu-ray each, in some sort of shootout.

The only thing coming close to this was Natures Journey (a 1080i encode btw) and even the producer said, customers would be "hard pressed" to notice any difference in pq. So it is to be expected, that the pq advantage would be so small, only the hardcore enthusiasts with the best displays would notice. This is simply irrelevant for the mass market, the 'philes may b!tch about it though. So imo there is a small potential for an advantage, but itīs rather philosophical than real world.

So far HD DVD has proven it can deliver the same HD experience, even for the hardcore 'philes.

Jim Bob Jones 12-13-2007 07:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris Gerhard (Post 448010)
Many people that want HD DVD to succeed repeat that line "quality is the same". I own both and believe Blu-ray is better. Same source, same codec, same bitrate, same care used for the transfer and the quality is the same for both, no doubt. Since Blu-ray can use much higher bitrates, Blu-ray objectively has to be better and all sites I have followed that provide subjective reviews indicate that Blu-ray is better on average. My PS3 indicated that "Disturbia", a Dreamworks title that was released on both formats has peak rates for audio/video exceeding 40Mbps, the HD DVD couldn't have exceeded 30Mbps. I haven't seen the "Disturbia" HD DVD and don't know whether AVC was used like the Blu-ray version or VC-1. I am still waiting for scientific evidence that any rate over 30Mbps is wasted and no benefit possible and I don't think that evidence will ever be presented. I doubt if the Blu-ray maximum rate of 48Mbps provides the absolute best possible quality, but I accept that 48Mbps is better than 30Mbps. The higher rate isn't needed with every title, but some have hard to render action scenes, extremely dark scenes or extremely bright scenes that can benefit from the extra bandwidth available. I will immediately concede that the technological advantage for Blu-ray will not have a signficant impact on the format war and certainly won't win the format war for Blu-ray, but I do take exception with the common claim that Blu-ray isn't better. Whether or not the improvement is material is up to each individual and dependent on a lot of factors. It may even be that most people wouldn't care about the quality difference and it may even be that most people don't care that both of these formats are better than DVD.

Chris

Although I agree with your general analysis on the Blu-ray/HD-DVD debate, I doubt most consumers give a rat's a*s about bit rates and disc capacity unless the differences are readily apparent in the viewing experience. Although you indicate that you "believe Blu-ray is better", other than pointing to those aforementioned objective facts, I note you did not suggest that you recognized its superiority in the viewing experience. I still maintain that Blu-ray will win this battle because it came out of the gate with tremendous support from the major movie production companies (all but Universal and Paramount which have myopically committed only to HD-DVD) and with major manufacturing giants like Sony and Panasonic. I firmly believe HD-DVD can only win with major and consistent reductions in hardware and software costs. If Blu-ray ever produces a player under the $200 mark, HD-DVD will be in serious trouble. However, I have been wrong in the past-from time to time.

Chris Gerhard 12-13-2007 07:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nikopol (Post 448033)
"I doubt if the Blu-ray maximum rate of 48Mbps provides the absolute best possible quality, but I accept that 48Mbps is better than 30Mbps. "

The maximum video bitrate for HD DVD is 29.4Mbps. HD DVD white paper, page 17
The maximum video bitrate for Blu-ray is 40.0Mbps. Blu-ray FAQ 3.3 with wrong info about HD DVD btw

Blu-ray has yet to prove, that can use their bitrate advantage to provide a significantly better pq. This could only be done, if the same source would be encoded for HD DVD and Blu-ray each, in some sort of shootout.

The only thing coming close to this was Natures Journey (a 1080i encode btw) and even the producer said, customers would be "hard pressed" to notice any difference in pq. So it is to be expected, that the pq advantage would be so small, only the hardcore enthusiasts with the best displays would notice. This is simply irrelevant for the mass market, the 'philes may b!tch about it though. So imo there is a small potential for an advantage, but itīs rather philosophical than real world.

So far HD DVD has proven it can deliver the same HD experience, even for the hardcore 'philes.

Whether or not the difference between Blu-ray and HD DVD are significant depends on what you consider significant. What I stated was I observed the PS3 estimated total bitrate for video/audio exceeded 40Mbps and that HD DVD can't top 30Mbps. The Blu-ray maximum for video/audio is 48Mbps. The difference between 40Mbps available for video and 48Mbps can be used for audio and Blu-ray often uses uncompressed lossless PCM which is a bandwidth hog. I think you agreed with what I stated unless I am missing something.

Chris


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