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Upconversion players vs HD DVD, Blur-ray

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Old 11-20-2007, 08:27 AM   #16  
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Originally Posted by BobY View Post
It's a bit Apples and Oranges comparing SACD/DVD-A with HD.

CD sounded plenty good enough to most people and there was no consumer push for better audio systems that would allow anyone to hear the difference between CD and SACD/DVD-A.

There is an enormous marketing push in CE for HD displays, to the point where it won't be long before you simply can't buy a display that isn't HD unless it's a bottom-of-the-barrel small screen. The difference between SD and HD is pretty obvious and if it doesn't cost any more to get HD, likely that's what consumers will do.

AFAIK, standalone SACD players were mostly high-end gear and the typical reasonably-priced SACD/DVD-A players were marketed as DVD players, which didn't even register on the radar of typical consumers buying audio players. A very poor marketing approach which delivered the obvious results.
Although I see that opinion stated often here regarding SACD/DVD-A and how it compares to the current situation with HD DVD/Blu-ray, I disagree completely. There are many similarities and the market results so far parallel exactly. SACD and DVD-A were fighting to replace CD which is in about 100% of homes. Blu-ray and HD DVD are fighting to replace DVD which is in about 100% of homes in the US. CD and DVD are considered good enough by most that use them and both are losing market share to downloads and other methods of delivery to the home. None of the new high quality formats have made a dent in the mainstream formats. All SACD and DVD-A hardware I am aware of also played CD and all Blu-ray and HD DVD hardware also plays DVD so backward compatibility was seen as key. Just make a list of all things and see all of the similarities.

SACD even included a hybrid disc in their attempt, which didn't really help just like the HD DVD hybrid won't help. DVD-A was also marketed as a DualDisc with DVD-A on one side and CD on the other, just like the failed HD DVD/DVD combo discs. High quality audio formats to replace CD or high quality video formats to replace DVD, the market is a tough one to develop. With two formats fighting for the market, either market is absolutely impossible to develop.

With 5,000 SACD releases and 1,500 or so DVD-A releases, the next generation HD disc formats have a long way to go to catch up. There have been easily over 20,000,000 SACD players sold and many million DVD-A players worldwide, perhaps that many as well. So the next generation HD disc players are way behind in hardware as well. The general public knows little about any of the formats but what they did know was the market canít sustain two formats so they wait for the outcome before being involved. I have no reason to believe the market for HD disc is any greater than the market for high resolution audio discs. If both HD DVD and Blu-ray survive for 5 years, look for the outcome to be exactly the same, small niche status for both in my opinion. Most that continue to use SACD/DVD-A do so with dual format players and if Blu-ray/HD DVD dual format players are ever affordable, that might also be a repeat.

Personally, I only believed SACD or DVD-A could co-exist with CD but do very well with the high end enthusiast and whatever market segment cares about high quality audio, it isnít as minuscule as many here believe. SACD could have been a bigger success than it is which is now basically the high end classical and jazz music fan, without DVD-A around. I believe the same situation exists for Blu-ray, it canít replace DVD, nor can HD DVD. Although the news media is giving more coverage to the Blu-ray v. HD DVD format war than it did to the SACD v. DVD-A format war, if the pathetic sales results continue, that will change. CD replaced LP for the mass market and DVD replaced VHS for the mass market quickly. I donít agree with the approach that the new formats have to replace the old to be a success and beefed up 5Ē shiny discs canít replace the existing 5Ē shiny discs, there just canít be enough of a difference to the average person. CD and DVD are good enough so incremental improvements must accept a smaller market and should be able to do so profitably if that is the approach used and if only one format attempts to develop the market. Two formats continuing are DOA as far as profits are concerned. No profits obviously eventually means little or no software.

I donít doubt that the group that hangs out here cares more about HDTV than high quality audio but that isnít true for the audio forums. I care about both and havenít seen any difference in the overall response from the market or from consumer electronics companies. HD DVD having only one hardware manufacturer basically is different since SACD and DVD-A attracted many for both formats, but that might have more to do with the Toshiba hardware fire sale approach than a lack of interest in competing. Toshiba has quickly made competition not worthwhile for almost all others. Of course without the hardware fire sale approach, HD DVD would already be out of the game.

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Old 11-20-2007, 09:34 AM   #17  
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That's a very well-reasoned argument and I won't say you're definitely wrong, but you miss the key factor I already pointed out:

There was no mass marketing push whatsoever for SACD or DVD-A toward consumers and there was almost no chance that they would hear any difference between CD (which sounded great to them) and either SACD or DVD-A. In many, many cases, CD was the consumer format for portable audio players, boom boxes and car audio, not for critical listening, and it was unlikely anyone would hear any difference under those listening conditions with the typical quality of such audio equipment.

HDTV on the other hand, has the most enormous marketing push since Color television. Soon you will not be able to buy any kind of display other than HD. Cable companies are pushing HD. Satellite companies are pushing HD. OTA networks are pushing HD.

And average consumers *can* see the difference. I have never seen anyone, including those who have no interest in or knowledge of technology, who hasn't been impressed by HD content on a large HD display. Yes, they consider normal DVD's "good enough" because they aren't interested in something they perceive will cost a lot of money, even though they clearly recognize it is better.

The same thing was true of color TV when it came out--people clearly saw it was better, but it was much more expensive than black&white and there was little color broadcasting. Once prices dropped and networks were transmitting a lot of programs in color, consumers embraced it wholeheartedly.

What are consumers going to do when they go to the store to replace their old TV and find the only TV's available are HDTV's for the same price or less than they paid for their old TV? Not buy a TV?

What are consumers going to do when they go to the store to replace their old DVD player and find the only players available are HD DVD players for the same price or less than they paid for their old player? Not buy a player?

What are consumers going to do when they go to the store to purchase a DVD and find it's only available as an HD DVD TWIN for the same price as an SD DVD? Not buy the movie?

Replacing disc rentals/sales with downloads is still pretty far off--only about half the households in the US currently have broadband and it's still not as convenient for many people as picking up a movie when shopping. Broadband adoption in rural America is very low and America continues to lag most industrialized countries in broadband penetration.

Just to touch on a few unrelated issues:

I once again say your claim of 20,000,000 SACD (plus some millions of DVD-A players) sold is ridiculous. Yes, they may have sold that many *DVD Players* capable of playing SACD and DVD-A, but to suggest that they are all being used for SACD/DVD-A playback is absurd and the disc sales prove that. IIRC from my previous post on the subject, if your numbers were true, the disc attachment rate for SACD works out to something like 1/10th of one percent, or one disc soid for every 20,000 players. That makes the attachment rate of Blu-Ray and HD DVD look spectacular by comparison.

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Of course without the hardware fire sale approach, HD DVD would already be out of the game.
I have to chuckle. Without the hardware fire sale on the PS3 (lest we forget, loss of 2 Billion dollars), Blu-Ray would never have been *in* the game and without the disc fire sale approach (buy-one-get-one-free), Blu-Ray's disc sales advantage would be eroding rapidly.

You also need to keep in mind that whether you think either format can replace DVD or not, it was the stated intention of the BDA to replace DVD and that is what their long-term business model is based on. You may be happy with Blu-Ray being a high-end niche market for discriminating videophiles with money to spend, but the members of the BDA are not and will pull the plug if they conclude that's where they are headed.

You could take some consolation that Sony will probably hang in there for a while, as they do with all of their failed formats--they still make UMD movies and cameras that accept MemoryStick. On the other hand, they've pretty much bailed out of SACD at this point.

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Old 11-20-2007, 09:49 AM   #18  
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There's was no consumer push for HDTV either - it was forced on us by the goverment (who are repaying a debt owed to big business and not out of any noble ideals). Your point about cost is - to me - the overriding factor in HD's overall acceptance. Right now the cost is still WAAAAAYYYYY to high, much as SACD's hardware/software were. HD-DVD is at least smart enough to try to get the price down on both the hardware and software end. But until the TV's, players and most importantly software are priced at what SDTV, DVD players and DVD movies are priced at now the general public will be generally apathetic to it.
I'm sorry, but you're confused. There is no government mandate whatsoever for HD. The government mandate is only for digital television and the vast majority of that will be SD.

The push for HD is by the CE manufacturers, the networks and the content providers. You don't think the reason we have color TV is because of consumer demand, do you? Technology progresses, new things become possible and companies try to profit from that by offering products to consumers. Consumers either embrace the products or not.

As far as pricing, I'm really not following that at all. Today I can buy a bigger screen HDTV for less than I spent on my old CRT TV several years ago and an HD DVD player for less than I spent on my DVD player several years ago. Yes, the price of the discs needs to come down and it will.

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But what doomed SACD and DVD-A was the format war. The same thing will do in HD-DVD and/or Blue Ray.
I disagree. What doomed SACD and DVD-A was an almost total lack of awareness/interest in the consumer market. The consumer market is already far more aware of and interested in HD than it ever was regarding SACD or DVD-A and it's still early in the game (after all HD content from sources other than broadcast have only been available for about a year).
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Old 11-20-2007, 10:01 AM   #19  
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I love my universal SACD, DVD-Audio DVD player and even though the manufacturers marketing was a disaster and hence both of these superior audio formats never really took off, I do enjoy them and hope that at least a few labels will continue to make disks. With that being said, the Blu-ray vs. HD DVD "format war" has gotten much more press and has received much more consumer attention. If either or both of these two competing formats hopes to replace the standard DVD they must bring the price point to a reasonable level on both the equipment as well as the media for the average consumer to consider it as well as show the benefits of them both being a superior audio and video format with emphasis on the ability to play the current standard DVD. I have always enjoyed being an early adopter, although it has been costly, when it comes to new and innovative audio or video technology and equipment (remember quadraphonic audio, laser disc, El Cassette?). No matter if either format wins or looses or if they both fail, I for one will have both Blu-ray and HD DVD to use as long as the equipment works and media is available. It would seem to me that it would be in both camp's best interest to find a solution where there is one standardized format that will benefit all of the manufacturers involved, the movie studios and the consumer.
I believe that as long as this war continues, with all of the misleading information, trickery, and one camp saying their product is superior we all will end up being the loosers.
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Old 11-20-2007, 12:21 PM   #20  
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That's a very well-reasoned argument and I won't say you're definitely wrong, but you miss the key factor I already pointed out:

There was no mass marketing push whatsoever for SACD or DVD-A toward consumers and there was almost no chance that they would hear any difference between CD (which sounded great to them) and either SACD or DVD-A. In many, many cases, CD was the consumer format for portable audio players, boom boxes and car audio, not for critical listening, and it was unlikely anyone would hear any difference under those listening conditions with the typical quality of such audio equipment.

HDTV on the other hand, has the most enormous marketing push since Color television. Soon you will not be able to buy any kind of display other than HD. Cable companies are pushing HD. Satellite companies are pushing HD. OTA networks are pushing HD.

And average consumers *can* see the difference. I have never seen anyone, including those who have no interest in or knowledge of technology, who hasn't been impressed by HD content on a large HD display. Yes, they consider normal DVD's "good enough" because they aren't interested in something they perceive will cost a lot of money, even though they clearly recognize it is better.

The same thing was true of color TV when it came out--people clearly saw it was better, but it was much more expensive than black&white and there was little color broadcasting. Once prices dropped and networks were transmitting a lot of programs in color, consumers embraced it wholeheartedly.

What are consumers going to do when they go to the store to replace their old TV and find the only TV's available are HDTV's for the same price or less than they paid for their old TV? Not buy a TV?

What are consumers going to do when they go to the store to replace their old DVD player and find the only players available are HD DVD players for the same price or less than they paid for their old player? Not buy a player?

What are consumers going to do when they go to the store to purchase a DVD and find it's only available as an HD DVD TWIN for the same price as an SD DVD? Not buy the movie?

Replacing disc rentals/sales with downloads is still pretty far off--only about half the households in the US currently have broadband and it's still not as convenient for many people as picking up a movie when shopping. Broadband adoption in rural America is very low and America continues to lag most industrialized countries in broadband penetration.

Just to touch on a few unrelated issues:

I once again say your claim of 20,000,000 SACD (plus some millions of DVD-A players) sold is ridiculous. Yes, they may have sold that many *DVD Players* capable of playing SACD and DVD-A, but to suggest that they are all being used for SACD/DVD-A playback is absurd and the disc sales prove that. IIRC from my previous post on the subject, if your numbers were true, the disc attachment rate for SACD works out to something like 1/10th of one percent, or one disc soid for every 20,000 players. That makes the attachment rate of Blu-Ray and HD DVD look spectacular by comparison.



I have to chuckle. Without the hardware fire sale on the PS3 (lest we forget, loss of 2 Billion dollars), Blu-Ray would never have been *in* the game and without the disc fire sale approach (buy-one-get-one-free), Blu-Ray's disc sales advantage would be eroding rapidly.

You also need to keep in mind that whether you think either format can replace DVD or not, it was the stated intention of the BDA to replace DVD and that is what their long-term business model is based on. You may be happy with Blu-Ray being a high-end niche market for discriminating videophiles with money to spend, but the members of the BDA are not and will pull the plug if they conclude that's where they are headed.

You could take some consolation that Sony will probably hang in there for a while, as they do with all of their failed formats--they still make UMD movies and cameras that accept MemoryStick. On the other hand, they've pretty much bailed out of SACD at this point.
I don't agree that Sony has lost 2 billion on the PS3. I do agree the number must be huge. What you should be able to understand is that Sony sold many millions of PS3 consoles at prices of about $500. The quantity of HD DVD players sold before the fire sale approach was basically zilch. What HD DVD player price would be required to sell at quantities approaching the PS3? $50, $25, $5?

Of course I can tell the difference between CD and SACD and SACD offers surround sound as well so every consumer can tell the difference, and easily, period. The difference between DVD and these next generation formats, not so easily determined. I didn't say all 20,000,000+ SACD players are being used for SACD, only that the figure was sold. Just like the several hundred thousand HD DVD players sold are not all being used for HD DVD.

My hope remains that Warner will make the proper decision and end the lunacy of having two formats. At least Warner has basically admitted recently based on quotes I have read that two formats aren't what consumers want and they have ended the TotalHD nonsense before launch. Warner made many of the best DVD-A's I own, but basically threw in the towel except for a rare release after continued losses on the format. No possible profits can be made by being neutral with these two so we have the motivation for Warner to do something. I doubt that I am alone with my opinion that Warner moves to HD DVD exclusively and we have a stalemate, but a move to Blu-ray and we have a winner.

I own all of the formats, use all of the formats and have a good basis for my opinions.

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Old 11-20-2007, 03:06 PM   #21  
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I doubt that I am alone with my opinion that Warner moves to HD DVD exclusively and we have a stalemate, but a move to Blu-ray and we have a winner.
And I as do many others agree that if Warner moves to HD DVD we will have a winner.
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Old 11-20-2007, 03:18 PM   #22  
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[...]

My hope remains that Warner will make the proper decision and end the lunacy of having two formats. At least Warner has basically admitted recently based on quotes I have read that two formats aren't what consumers want and they have ended the TotalHD nonsense before launch. Warner made many of the best DVD-A's I own, but basically threw in the towel except for a rare release after continued losses on the format. No possible profits can be made by being neutral with these two so we have the motivation for Warner to do something. I doubt that I am alone with my opinion that Warner moves to HD DVD exclusively and we have a stalemate, but a move to Blu-ray and we have a winner.
Interesting. Probably most red supporters would disagree and most blue supporters would agree with that statement.

Funny how blu-ray supporters actually seem to be convinced, that HD DVD cannot win whatever happens.
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Old 11-20-2007, 04:34 PM   #23  
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Interesting. Probably most red supporters would disagree and most blue supporters would agree with that statement.

Funny how blu-ray supporters actually seem to be convinced, that HD DVD cannot win whatever happens.
Warner moving to HD DVD still leaves Disney/Buena Vista, Sony/Columbia, MGM and Fox not supporting HD DVD, therefore it isn't enough for HD DVD and the result is basically a draw, seems easy to see to me. The huge advantage Blu-ray already has in hardware and software can't be overcome by HD DVD just by a Warner move to HD DVD. There have been no exclusive studios change sides and I believe none will until the format war is over and a 50/50 split won't motivate the Blu-ray exclusives to change to trigger the end in favor of HD DVD. The Blu-ray hardware advantage will never be overcome in that scenario either. In fact if Warner craps in the marketplace by choosing HD DVD, the scramble will be all players trying to get a jump start in the next greatest thing, these two formats will be going nowhere and everybody will admit it after another 6 months of these pathetic sales results. That's how I see it all playing out.

Now, if Warner chooses Blu-ray, the software sold gap grows, more retailers choose to support Blu-ray exclusively and the momentum will have HD DVD gone before Christmas 2008 or HD DVD will be nothing more than a tiny fraction in comparison to Blu-ray, the sales split would be about 90 - 10.

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Old 11-20-2007, 05:39 PM   #24  
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The original thread started about whether or not Joe Sixpack will be content enough with up-conversion of SD DVDs to avoid stepping into the HD media war. Not whether he will choose Blu over up-conversion or HD DVD over up-conversion. But once again it ended up with the blu(s) against the red(s)and the same arguments we've heard over and over.

My take is Joe doesn't want to be burned by purchasing the wrong format. Joe would be hard pressed to tell a BetaMax from a shoebox but he's heard the story enough times: the guys who bet on the wrong horse lost. Joe doesn't want to be considered a loser.

IF you buy that arguement then HD DVD has the advantage IF they can convince Joe to buy their unit because it does a good job of upconverting the SD DVDs he can purchase for a few bucks so they look good on his new screen which is HD (anybody seen any ED screens lately?) AND VERY IMPORTANTLY it doesn't cost an arm and a leg.

To me Joe wants his VCR back, one unit plays movies AND RECORDS his favorite shows with few wires and fewer incompatability issues. And make it so it self sets the time. The constant flashing 12:00 is a constant reminder of his inability to deal with all this new stuff.

It would be cool if the big guys started looking at producing what Joe wants instead of seemingly taking their cues from some guys from Detroit and the auto industry. Those of us on these boards aren't going to buy enough of either format to make the studios etc. enough money to keep either format.
My Humble Opinion,

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Old 11-20-2007, 06:44 PM   #25  
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I don't agree that Sony has lost 2 billion on the PS3.
Then take your disagreement up with Sony, it's the loss figure they announced to the financial world for their game division and they attributed it to PS3.

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What HD DVD player price would be required to sell at quantities approaching the PS3? $50, $25, $5?
Irrelevant. The vast majority of PS3's were bought by gamers who wanted to play games, not watch Blu-Ray movies, and that is born out by the disc attach rate (still less than 1 disc-per-player on average). No one could possibly expect standalone HD DVD or even Blu-Ray players to sell as well as the PS3--an eagerly awaited entry into an existing market.

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Of course I can tell the difference between CD and SACD and SACD offers surround sound as well so every consumer can tell the difference, and easily, period. The difference between DVD and these next generation formats, not so easily determined. I didn't say all 20,000,000+ SACD players are being used for SACD, only that the figure was sold. Just like the several hundred thousand HD DVD players sold are not all being used for HD DVD.
I'm sure you *can* tell the difference. I presume everyone who bought an SACD player for the purpose of playing SACD's can tell the difference, or why buy one?

Most consumers don't have surround systems for listening to music and most of them would not hear the difference on their stereo systems (or care if they did)--remember, consumer's love MP3's, the biggest thing to happen in consumer audio since electronic amplification.

On the other hand, the difference between SD and HD on a large HD display is unmistakable. I've never seen anyone *not* notice or comment positively on it. Obviously that doesn't mean they want to spend money on HD, but they certainly appreciate that HD is palpably better.

You're probably correct that not 100% of the HD DVD players sold are being used for HD DVD playback, but with a disc attach rate significantly greater than 1 disc-per-player, the percentage is far better than either SACD or Blu-Ray.

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My hope remains that Warner will make the proper decision and end the lunacy of having two formats.
We agree on something!

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I doubt that I am alone with my opinion that Warner moves to HD DVD exclusively and we have a stalemate, but a move to Blu-ray and we have a winner.
You are probably not alone in your opinion, but it isn't shared by the CEO of SONY who says, on the record, it's a stalemate already.

I doubt I am alone in my opinon that if Warner moves to HD DVD exclusively, Blu-Ray is on the ropes and it won't be long before Blu-Ray exclusive studios drop their exclusivity (interestingly, before SONY CEO Stringer made his "stalemate" comment, Disney had already voted in favor of approval of HD DVD TL51 and TWINs in the DVD Forum, while all other BDA members abstained).

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I own all of the formats, use all of the formats and have a good basis for my opinions.

Chris
I own all the formats that won and didn't bother with the ones I knew were going to be losers, so I have a good basis for my opinions, too.

Who's right? We'll have to wait and see, but I certainly feel good about my view.
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Old 11-20-2007, 09:21 PM   #26  
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As this thread had devolved into yet another HD DVD vs. BD debate, I will add my $0.02.

Why is the low-cost BD player a game box? Not just any game box, but the most expensive game box ever invented? That makes zero sense.

Does a high-def disc player require a Cell chip? A Celeron, perhaps, but not a 200 gigaflop Cell processor. Does a high-def disc player need a 40GB hard disk? Is it a DVR or disc player? Does a high-def disc player require 256MB of RAM? Does a high-def disc player need a 300 million transistor 3d graphics engine and 256MB of graphics RAM?

This requirement that the floor for a BD player be dictated by the lowest price for a PS3 simply makes no sense.

If you took out the parts of a $400 PS3 not required for BD playback, you could end up with a reasonably priced stand-alone BD player.
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Old 11-21-2007, 05:20 AM   #27  
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You are probably not alone in your opinion, but it isn't shared by the CEO of SONY who says, on the record, it's a stalemate already.


I own all the formats that won and didn't bother with the ones I knew were going to be losers, so I have a good basis for my opinions, too.
I just picked out these two funny statements you made out of the bunch of funny statements. Of course what Stinger said was the Paramount defection took a sure Blu-ray win and left things in this mess. He never said if Warner chooses Blu-ray, we have a stalemate. We still have a huge Blu-ray lead in hardware and every single week without fail we have a Blu-ray win in software sold. Warner moves to Blu-ray it is over regardless of how the HD DVD fans interpret what he said. I read here that they interpret being outsold 2-1 is a success and Blu-ray is on the ropes as a result.

You own all the formats that won, but you don't own SACD. I don't know how anybody could conclude that the outcome of the SACD v. DVD-A format war was anything other than an SACD win. Like many wars, neither the winner nor loser escaped unscathed but SACD continues with many more releases and the company that released the most DVD-A titles, 5.1 Entertainment has not released a single title in well over a year. I am sure more SACD titles have been released than HD DVD titles since HD DVD launched. If you own neither, then of course you sat that format war out which explains a good part of your lack of understanding regarding what happened.

Of course the average owner of an HDTV will make upscaled DVD work as long as the format war continues. I don't know the percentage, but the market for Blu-ray expands greatly with a Blu-ray victory. The confusion and reluctance to get involved ends and the only reasons for HDTV owners to avoid Blu-ray becomes a true belief that upscaled DVD is the better value. All consumers make choices, that is why we have Chevrolet and Cadillac. My prediction from the beginning of this format war was that in 5 years, we would have HDTV in about 70% of homes in the US and if we have two HD disc formats, a small percentage will own one or both, 10% tops. With a few years of only one format, half of the 70% will own the winner.

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Old 11-21-2007, 10:06 AM   #28  
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I just picked out these two funny statements you made out of the bunch of funny statements. Of course what Stinger said was the Paramount defection took a sure Blu-ray win and left things in this mess. He never said if Warner chooses Blu-ray, we have a stalemate. We still have a huge Blu-ray lead in hardware and every single week without fail we have a Blu-ray win in software sold. Warner moves to Blu-ray it is over regardless of how the HD DVD fans interpret what he said. I read here that they interpret being outsold 2-1 is a success and Blu-ray is on the ropes as a result.

You own all the formats that won, but you don't own SACD. I don't know how anybody could conclude that the outcome of the SACD v. DVD-A format war was anything other than an SACD win. Like many wars, neither the winner nor loser escaped unscathed but SACD continues with many more releases and the company that released the most DVD-A titles, 5.1 Entertainment has not released a single title in well over a year. I am sure more SACD titles have been released than HD DVD titles since HD DVD launched. If you own neither, then of course you sat that format war out which explains a good part of your lack of understanding regarding what happened.

Of course the average owner of an HDTV will make upscaled DVD work as long as the format war continues. I don't know the percentage, but the market for Blu-ray expands greatly with a Blu-ray victory. The confusion and reluctance to get involved ends and the only reasons for HDTV owners to avoid Blu-ray becomes a true belief that upscaled DVD is the better value. All consumers make choices, that is why we have Chevrolet and Cadillac. My prediction from the beginning of this format war was that in 5 years, we would have HDTV in about 70% of homes in the US and if we have two HD disc formats, a small percentage will own one or both, 10% tops. With a few years of only one format, half of the 70% will own the winner.

Chris
Hmmm, Stringer made his statement recently, not in response to Paramount/Dreamworks, and he said the situation currently *is* a stalemate as things are (Warner neutral). You were the one who said if Warner goes HD DVD exclusive, it's a stalemate.

Unless Stringer is being uncharacteristically honest and not spinning as usual, then his statement may be a sign of something worse than a stalemate for Blu-Ray. Either way, your opinion is not shared by the CEO of SONY, the prime force behind Blu-Ray.

Come on Chris, you are smarter than that--to just keep repeating the BD propaganda points:

Fact: The huge Blu-Ray lead in Hardware (as a result of PS3) has not led to a significant Blu-Ray lead in disc sales--they are still struggling to get back to 2:1 (using Nielsen's questionable numbers).

Fact: In the past several weeks, Blu-Ray has only been able to maintain their existing disc sales lead through special offers and giveaways of discs. There is no doubt they would have lost "Transformers week" if it wasn't for special promotions enacted specifically to blunt the success of Transformers. It's a fine strategy, buy please don't tell me they fooled you and you believe it represents a sign of strength for Blu-Ray disc sales--you're the one who keeps bringing up "fire sales" as a sign of desperation.

Fact: Warner has stated repeatedly and precisely that they have no plans to go exclusive with either format and that they will be examining how things go in 2008.

Fact: The studios don't give a whit about disc sales right now because neither format is selling enough discs to make any money. A less than 2:1 sales lead means nothing at this point. Any studio with accountants and a Sales and Marketing department is looking at player sales and attach rates, because that is the data that will give them an idea what future disc sales might be.

SACD may have won over DVD-A, but they are both losers, that's why I don't have either format (well, actually my DVD player will play them, but I haven't the slightest interest in them).

According to the RIAA stats, in 2006, DVD-A discs far outsold SACD discs, you can look that up in my previous post on the subject. Yes there may be more SACD titles, but it's not adding up to better sales. In the RIAA 2006 consumer profile, they list SACD with 0% market share--obviously it's not zero, but it was too low for them to bother. DVD-A was listed at 1.3%. Even vinyl LP's significantly outsold SACD, but LP's only sold half of what DVD-A did.

I understand perfectly what happened, two formats that were of zero interest to average consumers were introduced and they both failed to achieve significant market share. The same thing could happen with HD DVD and Blu-Ray, but my point is, there is a huge market push for HD aimed at average consumers, something that didn't exist at all with either Hi-Def audio format. SACD and DVD-A were targeted at a tiny niche market, that's where they stayed and that is exactly what will happen to Blu-Ray if Blu-Ray wins.

I serously doubt the average consumer would consider Blu-Ray a better value than upscaled DVD, but a $100 HD DVD player that also upscales SD--that's a good value.

Last edited by BobY; 11-21-2007 at 10:18 AM..
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Old 11-21-2007, 10:29 AM   #29  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wiley View Post
The original thread started about whether or not Joe Sixpack will be content enough with up-conversion of SD DVDs to avoid stepping into the HD media war. Not whether he will choose Blu over up-conversion or HD DVD over up-conversion. But once again it ended up with the blu(s) against the red(s)and the same arguments we've heard over and over.

My take is Joe doesn't want to be burned by purchasing the wrong format. Joe would be hard pressed to tell a BetaMax from a shoebox but he's heard the story enough times: the guys who bet on the wrong horse lost. Joe doesn't want to be considered a loser.

IF you buy that arguement then HD DVD has the advantage IF they can convince Joe to buy their unit because it does a good job of upconverting the SD DVDs he can purchase for a few bucks so they look good on his new screen which is HD (anybody seen any ED screens lately?) AND VERY IMPORTANTLY it doesn't cost an arm and a leg.

To me Joe wants his VCR back, one unit plays movies AND RECORDS his favorite shows with few wires and fewer incompatability issues. And make it so it self sets the time. The constant flashing 12:00 is a constant reminder of his inability to deal with all this new stuff.

It would be cool if the big guys started looking at producing what Joe wants instead of seemingly taking their cues from some guys from Detroit and the auto industry. Those of us on these boards aren't going to buy enough of either format to make the studios etc. enough money to keep either format.
My Humble Opinion,

Wiley
What!!! You want THEM to actually make what people REALLY want

All joking aside, you are right about this devolving into a format war discussion. The real battle may be the common joe who doesn't want to take a risk but is willing to "upgrade" to a upconverting player vs we fanatics who want the latest and greatest. Doubt very much that either format will replace SDVD any time soon. Anyone remember SVHS???

Ed
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Old 11-21-2007, 11:36 AM   #30  
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Ok, I'll cast my vote.

As an "ordinary consumer", I have absolutely no need for either HD or BD, other than the amusement I get from following the "war".

I "upgraded" to an upscaling DVDR for under $150. Why? Because I wanted the ability to archive older VHS and 8mm tapes as well as to archive some broadcast content. The machine serves both the upscaling and recording functions more than satisfactorily.

For day-to-day program recording, most of which does not need to be archived, I simply use my DVR box. So basically, I have what Wiley was talking about; simple recording, archive capability and improved picture.

Finally, since a great deal of what I watch is NOT HD (SD content) quite naturally I'm well aware of the pq difference between SD and HD. I am also aware of the pq difference between standard DVD, upscaled DVD and HD DVD, and frankly I so no personal cost/benefit purpose to either HD or BD.

One consumer's opinion.
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