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How can we expect Blu-ray to succeed?

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Old 12-24-2008, 09:11 AM   #1  
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Default How can we expect Blu-ray to succeed?

http://news.cnet.com/8301-13506_3-10128598-17.html

"
Online research firm Futuresource released a study Monday that discussed the relative success Blu-ray is enjoying right now in Western Europe.
According to the report, Blu-ray disc sales are up significantly in Europe so far this holiday season, and based on its findings, it believes the strong sales will continue through 2009. In fact, it believes European Blu-ray sales will triple during 2009, seeing 2.5 million players enter homes next year. Similar results are being witnessed in the U.S.
But that's not all. A release last week claimed the latest Batman film, The Dark Knight, witnessed sales of 1.7 million Blu-ray units, representing the most popular Blu-ray title of all-time.
Quite impressive, eh? Well, what if I told you that worldwide combined DVD and Blu-ray sales of The Dark Knight totaled 13.5 million units? Suddenly, that 1.7 million Blu-ray unit mark doesn't look so hot next to the 11.8 million DVDs that were sold, huh?
Of course, we shouldn't expect Blu-ray to catch up anytime soon. According to Futuresource in a study it released earlier this year, Blu-ray isn't expected to outsell DVD until 2012. And even then, Blu-ray will control just a bit more than 50 percent of media sales with DVD coming in around 45 percent to 50 percent. In other words, DVDs will still be a major force four years from now.
Based on all that information, can we honestly sit here and say that Blu-ray has a chance at becoming the success DVD is?
I just don't see it."
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Old 12-24-2008, 09:20 AM   #2  
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It may never acheive the same success as DVD but it doesn't need to, to be considered a success, IMO.

I think it is already becoming successful... but I guess it always depends on one's definition of success.
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Old 12-24-2008, 09:30 AM   #3  
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It was sad watching SACD and DVD-A die.

But... I don't think Blu Ray is going there. It's a good one and I think more people are disc-overing it each day.

-Brian
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Old 12-24-2008, 09:46 AM   #4  
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Quite surprising that a version that could be had for $15 & played on a $30 player outsold one for $30 that could only be played on a $300-$400 player on an HDTV. Really, who saw that coming?

There must be a huge market for research firms to sit around and come up with doom & gloom forecasts for Blu ray.

Until HDTV's themselves even reach 100% penetration, there's no way that BD could equal DVD's sucess, even if they gave the players away for free.
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Old 12-24-2008, 10:43 AM   #5  
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The blu-ray figures pale in comparison to the dvd but that is to be expected. DVD has hit its peak and is now starting to steadily decline whilst BD sales are on the rise. I think it has to be realized that it will be a slow process and will take a long time but IM0 it will happen eventually.
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Old 12-24-2008, 12:12 PM   #6  
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What a waste of bandwidth.

We're not past this yet?
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Old 12-24-2008, 02:18 PM   #7  
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I honestly think we are at the same point of transition between BD and DVD as we were with DVD and VHS in about 1999. Just from my memory of what was on the shelf and at certain price points I think BD is doing well, even compared to SD DVD.
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Old 12-24-2008, 04:09 PM   #8  
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So true HD Goofnut.
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Old 12-24-2008, 04:20 PM   #9  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HD Goofnut View Post
I honestly think we are at the same point of transition between BD and DVD as we were with DVD and VHS in about 1999. Just from my memory of what was on the shelf and at certain price points I think BD is doing well, even compared to SD DVD.
Really??? I would say that BD has taken it's best shot with TDK and has come up a cropper. I mean really....1.7 million sold Vs 11.8 million SD DVDs. That's the BEST BD can do with the format's premier title??? Pathetic...if you ask me!!! And you speak of "transition?"
More like BD got the sh*t kicked out of it in this go round.
That's not to say I have anything against BD......well, I do think they could use more catalog titles like maybe.....10,000 more ....
Oh...and the software prices!!! Yeah...they gotta come down....sometime this century.
....just having a little fun..
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Old 12-24-2008, 04:25 PM   #10  
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oh no you do have something against it and 1.7 million is great numbers for 2 and half year format. Also to be comparing a damn 10 year format to a damn 2 and half year format that is really a fair comparison there now isn't it.

Last edited by scsa; 12-24-2008 at 04:56 PM..
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Old 12-24-2008, 05:05 PM   #11  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Louigi222 View Post
Really??? I would say that BD has taken it's best shot with TDK and has come up a cropper. I mean really....1.7 million sold Vs 11.8 million SD DVDs. That's the BEST BD can do with the format's premier title??? Pathetic...if you ask me!!! And you speak of "transition?"
More like BD got the sh*t kicked out of it in this go round.
That's not to say I have anything against BD......well, I do think they could use more catalog titles like maybe.....10,000 more ....
Oh...and the software prices!!! Yeah...they gotta come down....sometime this century.
....just having a little fun..
There were approx. 21 million BD players in the world at the time. That includes the PS3 and SA's.

The 1.7M number was not only world wide - but it also included rentailers like Blockbuster, Netflix, Movie Gallery and all the other world wide rentailers.

You do make an argument for saying - "not very impressive."
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Old 12-24-2008, 05:39 PM   #12  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lee Stewart View Post
There were approx. 21 million BD players in the world at the time. That includes the PS3 and SA's.

The 1.7M number was not only world wide - but it also included rentailers like Blockbuster, Netflix, Movie Gallery and all the other world wide rentailers.

You do make an argument for saying - "not very impressive."
Blu-ray discs accounted for 12.6% of all TDK disc sales worldwide including sell-through and rental. Wow, your idea of "not very impressive" is not the same as mine.

Let's see, it was only last year when the numbers/percentages looked like this for the top selling titles of 2007.

Transformers
DVD - 13.74 million HD DVD - 239,100 (1.7%)

Pirates 3
DVD - 13.20 million Blu-ray - 219,300 (1.6%)

Harry Potter 5
DVD - 10.14 million BD/HD DVD - 179,500 (1.7%)

The Departed
DVD - 8.94 million BD/HD DVD - 171,800 (1.9%)

Bourne Ultimatum
DVD - 7.36 million HD DVD - 162,300 (2.2%)

300
DVD - 12.91 million BD/HD DVD - 472,400 (3.5%)

Now, of course, we have TDK.

The Dark Knight
DVD - 11.8 million Blu-ray - 1.7 million (12.6%)

I guess blu-ray sales increasing from a high of 3.5% for "300" (both BD/HD DVD) in 2007 to 12.6% for TDK in 2008 is not enough in the eyes of some. Once again, I'm left asking myself what would be impressive growth to these people? You'd think if a title sells as many units in a single week in what they thought would take two entire months that alone would be admission enough that it performed well. You'd be wrong of course. Makes you wonder what would constitute as "impressive" in their view.

Source

Last edited by Dave J; 12-24-2008 at 05:43 PM..
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Old 12-24-2008, 05:45 PM   #13  
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12.6% would be impressive had BD not made that. Now the magic number is 20%, if it had made that that then 30% would have been the number to beat.
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Old 12-24-2008, 05:52 PM   #14  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave J View Post
Blu-ray discs accounted for 12.6% of all TDK disc sales worldwide including sell-through and rental. Wow, your idea of "not very impressive" is not the same as mine.
That's because my opinion in this discussion, is based on the number of BD players in the wild.

Yes - I know - the old, dreaded Attach Rate argument.

Quote:
Let's see, it was only last year when the numbers/percentages looked like this for the top selling titles of 2007.

Transformers
DVD - 13.74 million HD DVD - 239,100 (1.7%)

Pirates 3
DVD - 13.20 million Blu-ray - 219,300 (1.6%)

Harry Potter 5
DVD - 10.14 million BD/HD DVD - 179,500 (1.7%)

The Departed
DVD - 8.94 million BD/HD DVD - 171,800 (1.9%)

Bourne Ultimatum
DVD - 7.36 million HD DVD - 162,300 (2.2%)

300
DVD - 12.91 million BD/HD DVD - 472,400 (3.5%)

Now, of course, we have TDK.

The Dark Knight
DVD - 11.8 million Blu-ray - 1.7 million (12.6%)

I guess blu-ray sales increasing from a high of 3.5% for "300" (both BD/HD DVD) in 2007 to 12.6% for TDK in 2008 is not enough in the eyes of some. Once again, I'm left asking myself what would be impressive growth to these people? You'd think if a title sells as many units in a single week in what they thought would take two entire months that alone would be admission enough that it performed well. You'd be wrong of course. Makes you wonder what would constitute as "impressive" in their view.
Well Dave - those are impressive numbers. But my "impressiveness" is based on the attach rate.

So is there any way we can go to the HDM numbers and figure the attach rates for each format?

Or maybe we better not. That one never worked for BD.

Dave: Phonetically . . . Gay Gezunt!

Last edited by Lee Stewart; 12-24-2008 at 05:56 PM..
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Old 12-24-2008, 06:06 PM   #15  
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Donny speaks the truth and so does Dave. I bet when Transformers came out and did that numbers for HD-DVD Lee was saying oh my god those numbers were astounding.
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