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The rumors of Blu-ray's death are greatly exaggerated

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Old 10-30-2008, 08:40 AM   #1  
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Arrow The rumors of Blu-ray's death are greatly exaggerated

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Just like clockwork, whenever the world of digital downloads has some big news, many so called technologist start proclaiming the death of physical media; meanwhile, those who actually understand the business can't help but laugh. Those who proclaim the death of Blu-ray will one day feel as silly as those who proclaimed the death of VHS in the 90's because of the birth of VOD, because here we are over ten years later and JVC just now stopped producing stand-alone VHS decks and combo units still sell -- why, is beyond us though. The reality is that little shiny discs aren't going anywhere anytime soon, and because of the similarities between DVD and Blu-ray -- and CDs for that matter -- the possibility of Blu-ray becoming the next LaserDisc isn't likely. This is because unlike LD -- which was a very successful format by Hollywood's measure -- Blu-ray players will soon (12 to 18 months) push DVD players completely out of the market as the prices continue to diminish. While at the same time, most Blu-ray players play DVDs better than DVD players do. But regardless of DVD vs Blu-ray, what these technology pundits really mean is that the age of digital downloads is upon us and that physical media is dead. And while everyone knows that the death of physical media is inevitable, the time frame is really what's in question. We could just as easily make our own predictions, but instead of taking the risk of looking stupid, we'll quote Reed Hastings, the CEO of Netflix, who when asked if all the new streaming services would negatively affect its DVD business, responded with "the typical streaming customer differed from the typical DVD subscriber; so comparing the two wouldn't make sense."
Link: http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/10/30...y-exaggerated/
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Old 10-30-2008, 08:57 AM   #2  
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i couldn't agree more,and theres and old saying ''what people learn from history,is they learn noting from history''
these fools keep making the same doom&gloom crap year after year,and there wrong everytime.

if you belive them blu-ray was dead 2 years ago,prices will take years to come down...wrong again.these people should be fired from there jobs....i would be by now.

we know what there doing,there pushing there agenda's,they know those blu-discs are gonna be around along time,because people like me that like to collect bd movies are many.i see new titles every week coming to blu-ray,more ce's making bd players,the market growing,yet they leave those details out.

one more thing,if bd was dying,why are more ce's and titles coming out!if bd was dying the worse thing a company could do is keep producing product!
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Old 10-30-2008, 09:03 AM   #3  
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So let me make sure I have this right. The CE manufacturers that produce BD players are going to stop producing SD DVD players in the next 12 to 18 months. Am I reading that correctly? So this is effectively saying that Sony, Panasonic, Samsung, Funai, Denon, and possbily Oppo in the future will not make any SD DVD players after this time period? If this is true then it is surely much faster than I anticipated.
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Old 10-30-2008, 09:10 AM   #4  
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So let me make sure I have this right. The CE manufacturers that produce BD players are going to stop producing SD DVD players in the next 12 to 18 months. Am I reading that correctly? So this is effectively saying that Sony, Panasonic, Samsung, Funai, Denon, and possbily Oppo in the future will not make any SD DVD players after this time period? If this is true then it is surely much faster than I anticipated.
I don't think that's what they're saying. I believe it's more of broad speculation of what could happen as BD player prices drop. If BD player prices drop close to DVD prices, then there would be no need for DVD players. Thus, DVD players are no longer needed to be produced.
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Old 10-30-2008, 09:16 AM   #5  
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Originally Posted by HD Goofnut View Post
So let me make sure I have this right. The CE manufacturers that produce BD players are going to stop producing SD DVD players in the next 12 to 18 months. Am I reading that correctly? So this is effectively saying that Sony, Panasonic, Samsung, Funai, Denon, and possbily Oppo in the future will not make any SD DVD players after this time period? If this is true then it is surely much faster than I anticipated.
Yeah, I have a hard time believing that. I could see BD players pushing more expensive upconverting DVD players basically out of the marketplace (at least the ones found at most big box B&M stores).

But the rest of the article raises some good points. People that claim Blu-Ray is dead, or dying, and then proclaiming downloads as the next best thing just do not add up to me. If Blu-Ray is dead or dying, why are sales up so much? Why are so many new releases selling 8-17% vs the DVD? And where are the revenue numbers that support the notion that downloads are taking off? I honestly believe that many of these "Blog experts" are being paid to give their "opinion". And it goes both ways (I am sure Blu-Ray has their share as well). But if they think Blu-Ray is dead, I wonder what that says about the state of downloads?
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Old 10-30-2008, 09:18 AM   #6  
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Originally Posted by Bravestime View Post
I don't think that's what they're saying. I believe it's more of broad speculation of what could happen as BD player prices drop. If BD player prices drop close to DVD prices, then there would be no need for DVD players. Thus, DVD players are no longer needed to be produced.
- I believe one of those Black Friday deals is a DVD player for $15.

So how are BD players going to replace cheap DVD players when BD players have more (and expensive) parts and higher license fees?

SSDD . . "Just Wait!" BD is going to replace DVD . . .

Oops . . . no pigs flying outside of my window.

Or in other words . . .

Oh Look! ........................... A Unicorn!
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Old 10-30-2008, 09:27 AM   #7  
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I have to ask: Is the primary, short term mission goal for Blu-ray the replacement of DVD?
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Old 10-30-2008, 09:31 AM   #8  
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Originally Posted by Lee Stewart View Post
- I believe one of those Black Friday deals is a DVD player for $15.

So how are BD players going to replace cheap DVD players when BD players have more (and expensive) parts and higher license fees?

SSDD . . "Just Wait!" BD is going to replace DVD . . .

Oops . . . no pigs flying outside of my window.

Or in other words . . .

Oh Look! ........................... A Unicorn!
I didn't say this was going to happen, I was merely expressing my interpretation of the statement.
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Old 10-30-2008, 10:01 AM   #9  
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I have to ask: Is the primary, short term mission goal for Blu-ray the replacement of DVD?
If you mean BD "players" replace SD DVD "players", I think eventually this is likely for most purchases, but BD "movies" cannot replace SD DVD "movies" since they only have 841 BD titles released compared to over 4,000 SD DVD release in this same time frame (and that was with 2 studios not releasing and SD DVDs for about the first year). SD DVD has over 90,000 titles released, so unless studios go crazy with releases SOON, they couldn't possibly replace the SD DVD discs with BD discs ever IMO.

I do think there will likely be a few SD DVD players always being mfg until both formats get replaced in the future, but the choices will diminish IMO. This is because SD DVD players are much cheaper to make for all the reasons Lee stated above.
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Old 10-30-2008, 10:31 AM   #10  
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So how are BD players going to replace cheap DVD players when BD players have more (and expensive) parts and higher license fees?
Does all BD players actually continue to use 2 pick-up heads (one for BD and one for DVD)? Or now just one for both medias?...
http://www.highdefforum.com/717902-post169.html

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Old 10-30-2008, 10:38 AM   #11  
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If you mean BD "players" replace SD DVD "players", I think eventually this is likely for most purchases, but BD "movies" cannot replace SD DVD "movies" since they only have 841 BD titles released compared to over 4,000 SD DVD release in this same time frame (and that was with 2 studios not releasing and SD DVDs for about the first year). SD DVD has over 90,000 titles released, so unless studios go crazy with releases SOON, they couldn't possibly replace the SD DVD discs with BD discs ever IMO.

I do think there will likely be a few SD DVD players always being mfg until both formats get replaced in the future, but the choices will diminish IMO. This is because SD DVD players are much cheaper to make for all the reasons Lee stated above.
I honestly don't think there are any real(alistic) plans at all to 'replace' DVD. BD imo will be part of the needed diversification in the saturated home-video market. It rounds off the top end of the spectrum and does that rather well imo. Those who value the pixels will love BD for its abundance of high quality pixels. Anyone who doesn't give a hoot about pixels, well.... I am not sure, if a market showing so many signs of consumer apathy towards what a HDM format has to offer, would even embrace the format, if the title selection quadrupled and prices matched DVD. Imo at this time there are limitations for any HDM format, that go way beyond 'minor' problems such as pricing strategies or software selection.

As a consequence of this imo "limited" market potential i think it is more important for BD to focus on its core strengths, rather than try to "win by quantity". It can still be a successful multi-million, even billion $ business, that makes it worthwhile for the studios and mfg to participate and compete in it. And observing the market, like the imo limited amount of titles offered on the format, leads me to believe this is the real-world strategy those behind the format are following. 'Exploiting' this special part of the home-video market and using a marketing approach that is suitable for this "niche".

(PS: I am afraid my recent success at improving my htpc's upconverting has reduced the advantage HD has over SD significantly for me... )
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Old 10-30-2008, 11:29 AM   #12  
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Arrow Demise of Blu-ray exaggerated?

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According to London-based analysts FutureSource, the predicted demise of the high definition DVD format Blu-ray has been exaggerated.

Only recently here on HDTVorg we reported that despite emerging as the dominant High Definition DVD format, Blu-ray was coming under pressure as the preferred medium for watching movies.

Two trends have emerged which place the success of Blu-ray in doubt. Firstly, many of us appreciate the quality of Blu-ray but are quite happy to hang on to our collection of DVD's and Secondly, a growing number of manufacturers have long appreciated the potential for 'upscaling' technology as an intermediate solution - a solution which many consumers have adopted.

However, in a new report, FutureSource predicts that 1.8million BD players will ship into the UK and Europe by the close of 2009, a figure that does not include Sony's PS3 games console which has a built-in Blu-ray drive. They beleive that Blu-ray will benefit from the change in consumer spending habits as a result of the recent credit crunch; that they will opt to spend more of their disposable income on home entertainment.

Sarah Carroll, FutureSource director stated : "In times of economic hardship, we’ve seen consumer electronics and in-home entertainment weather the storm; indeed, expenditure in these segments can even increase. Sales of VCRs jumped by 440 per cent during the Eighties recession".
http://hdtvorg.co.uk/news/articles/2008103001.htm
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Old 10-30-2008, 01:25 PM   #13  
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Originally Posted by Robertoy View Post
Does all BD players actually continue to use 2 pick-up heads (one for BD and one for DVD)? Or now just one for both medias?...
http://www.highdefforum.com/717902-post169.html

Roberto
Here Roberto, this will help:

http://www.fineartradiography.com/ho...ay/optics.html
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Old 10-30-2008, 01:45 PM   #14  
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Wow!...thanks

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Old 10-30-2008, 10:08 PM   #15  
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The title of this thread just reminded me of Steve Jobs' keynote a few weeks ago...
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