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Format War May Be Over, but High-Definition DVD Still Faces Challenges [ABI Research]

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Old 04-23-2008, 04:19 AM   #1  
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Default Format War May Be Over, but High-Definition DVD Still Faces Challenges [ABI Research]

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NEW YORK - (Business Wire)

[...]

One of the primary challenges facing Blu-ray, says principal analyst Steve Wilson, is that many consumers are not fundamentally dissatisfied with the quality delivered by their conventional DVD players, when “upconverted” to play on high-definition TVs. “We are starting to see an increase in the number of DVD players with built-in upconverters, and the video processing is getting better with each new generation,” he says. “Today about 35% of all DVD players sold include upconversion. ABI Research expects that figure to climb to about 60% by 2013.”

Further, the state of the Blu-ray player market is not all that encouraging. The Blu-ray installed base today is heavily tilted towards Sony’s Playstation 3. Says Wilson, “The studios better hope that people are playing movies on their Playstations. Otherwise there’s very little installed base. In 2008 about 85% of the Blu-ray players in the market will be found in PS3s; the dedicated consumer electronics and PC-based types of Blu-ray players won’t catch up in terms of market share until about 2013.”

[...]
please read the rest of the article/press release here:

http://www.earthtimes.org/articles/s...r,361825.shtml
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Old 04-23-2008, 11:40 AM   #2  
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Let's hope they are wrong about this:
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Meanwhile consumer electronics manufacturers are maintaining high prices for dedicated players. “The studios had hoped to have settled the war,” Wilson concludes, “but I think they’re going to be disappointed when they don’t see the volumes of players going up they way they would have liked.”
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Old 04-23-2008, 11:45 AM   #3  
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Let's hope they are wrong about this:
I think at this point the studios and the BD mfg are coming to be at odds with each other now as the studios want a huge installed base of BD players so they can sell the BD movies, but the CE mfg have stated numerous times that they want to keep BD player prices as high as possible for as long as possible.

What the CE mfg need to understand is they are the tail in the tail wagging the dog scenario. They cannot do this much longer without the studios slowing/cutting off BD movies which would kill any dreams for the CE mfg to sell the numbers of BD players they hope to sell.

Time will tell how this plays out.
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Old 04-23-2008, 12:08 PM   #4  
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Finally, an article based in reality. I agree with it 1000000000%

None of those problems have a hope of ever being solved if everyone keeps denying them.
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Old 04-23-2008, 12:28 PM   #5  
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He mentions that consumers are not fundamentally dissatisfied with their current DVD players.

Well, if consumers being content with their current situation effected technology movement, then we would still be watching TV in black and white.
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Old 04-23-2008, 12:29 PM   #6  
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Finally, an article based in reality. I agree with it 1000000000%

None of those problems have a hope of ever being solved if everyone keeps denying them.
This is what I have been saying. People need to stop making excuses IMO.
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Old 04-23-2008, 12:35 PM   #7  
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He mentions that consumers are not fundamentally dissatisfied with their current DVD players.

Well, if consumers being content with their current situation effected technology movement, then we would still be watching TV in black and white.
You could still watch color programming on B&W TVs. You can't watch BDs on existing DVD players.

He says that consumers are not fundamentally dissatisfied with DVD, and I totally agree with him. I do think people were fundamentally dissatisfied with VHS (or video cassettes in general), and look how rapidly it was totally blown away when a superior product appeared. (It didn't even have superior picture quality in the beginning.)
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Old 04-23-2008, 12:37 PM   #8  
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(It didn't even have superior picture quality in the beginning.)
It must have done, many on here are adamant the primary reason for DVD adoption was superior PQ Not that I know of anyone myself. My prime example always is RF/Composite/S-Video/RGB SCART. Anyone fussed about PQ would in Europe have always used the latter (before component and later HDMI become prolific, thats been more with HD here) in the US I believe S-Video was your top cable standard.

They didn't though, most people were perfectly happy using their composite cables. Showing PQ clearly at the bottom of the barrel of priorities.
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Old 04-23-2008, 12:46 PM   #9  
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It must have done, many on here are adamant the primary reason for DVD adoption was superior PQ Not that I know of anyone myself. My prime example always is RF/Composite/S-Video/RGB SCART. Anyone fussed about PQ would in Europe have always used the latter (before component and later HDMI become prolific, thats been more with HD here) in the US I believe S-Video was your top cable standard.

They didn't though, most people were perfectly happy using their composite cables. Showing PQ clearly at the bottom of the barrel of priorities.
Composite cables showed a clear difference too. No one double dipped their collection just to have chapter selection with no rewinding.

And it took 5-6 years for DVD to overtake VHS. The theory that the majority doesnt dictate where technology goes applies with DVD aswell.
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Old 04-23-2008, 12:49 PM   #10  
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Maybe so, but surely people aren't so stupid that they'll fork out a few hundred on a new player they have to rebuy their movies for for improved PQ, but won't fork out a fiver or so for a cable that will allow them to get the best image out of what they've got.
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Old 04-23-2008, 01:01 PM   #11  
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Composite cables showed a clear difference too. No one double dipped their collection just to have chapter selection with no rewinding.

And it took 5-6 years for DVD to overtake VHS. The theory that the majority doesnt dictate where technology goes applies with DVD aswell.
It did take 5-6 years for DVD to overtake VHS, but the handwriting was clearly on the wall from the beginning. DVD rose sharply while VHS fell sharply, until those two lines finally met 5-6 years in. It was painfully obvious even before that point what was going on.
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Old 04-23-2008, 01:08 PM   #12  
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It must have done, many on here are adamant the primary reason for DVD adoption was superior PQ Not that I know of anyone myself. My prime example always is RF/Composite/S-Video/RGB SCART. Anyone fussed about PQ would in Europe have always used the latter (before component and later HDMI become prolific, thats been more with HD here) in the US I believe S-Video was your top cable standard.

They didn't though, most people were perfectly happy using their composite cables. Showing PQ clearly at the bottom of the barrel of priorities.
If you still have any original vintage DVDs, the quality was really bad, even by the standards of the day. Not just because of the existing transfers done for VHS, but edge enhancement and compression artifacts made some of them look abyssmal. It was better than VHS in some ways, but worse in others, and generally a wash. And then a lot of original DVD players didn't even have s-video output. That was a special feature to look for.

But people took to DVD anyway, because it was a superior product. Picture quality just kind of came on its own, as the technology grew into its potential.
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Old 04-23-2008, 01:14 PM   #13  
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It did take 5-6 years for DVD to overtake VHS, but the handwriting was clearly on the wall from the beginning. DVD rose sharply while VHS fell sharply, until those two lines finally met 5-6 years in. It was painfully obvious even before that point what was going on.
That mainly has to do with the fact that DVD players cant play VHS movies.

Anyways, according to the article the vast majority(probably 90%) of DVD owners dont even have upscalers. ewww.
I really dont think they are 'content' with the picture.. they just dont know any better or the price of HD content is stopping them.
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Old 04-23-2008, 01:18 PM   #14  
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well, if they don't have upscalers, and won't pay the price for the upgrade, by that logic Blu-ray is screwed.
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Old 04-23-2008, 01:20 PM   #15  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dare View Post
If you still have any original vintage DVDs, the quality was really bad, even by the standards of the day. Not just because of the existing transfers done for VHS, but edge enhancement and compression artifacts made some of them look abyssmal. It was better than VHS in some ways, but worse in others, and generally a wash. And then a lot of original DVD players didn't even have s-video output. That was a special feature to look for.

But people took to DVD anyway, because it was a superior product. Picture quality just kind of came on its own, as the technology grew into its potential.
I don't have too many older DVD releases, however I believe it was a different case in the UK to the US. The only DVDs I have from pre 2000 all have a great PQ Starship Troopers looks fantastic (and pretty much all our DVDs were Widescreen releases instead of pan and scan you suffered).
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