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IMO: Can You Really Compare HDM to DVD?

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Old 03-25-2008, 05:36 PM   #76
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You flamebaiting again Lee? I didn't see any offensive material in my post.
-That's what I was accussing you of! Best to just drop it.

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All I found from a Panny guy was this:

I don't know how this has any impact on my post in the first place. Anyway, he is a CEM exec, and just like the Sony taking over DVD in 3 years, what else is he going to say? "Now is a bad time to buy our stuff"

I have to add, for all the flack Bravestime got for posting a Blog, his post is now being used as reference material.
Oops . . . My Bad . . Said by the Sharp guy:

Quote:
Bruce Tripido, associate vice president for marketing at Sharp's entertainment division, said, “If this time around – and hopefully we've all learned something from the first time around – the technology consortium that owns the technology makes a conscious decision to protect it, and ensures that any company that's going to manufacture takes a license and protects royalties, then I think the price compression should happen at a reasonable rate.”
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Old 03-25-2008, 05:44 PM   #77
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Oops . . . My Bad . . Said by the Sharp guy:

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Bruce Tripido, associate vice president for marketing at Sharp's entertainment division, said, “If this time around – and hopefully we've all learned something from the first time around – the technology consortium that owns the technology makes a conscious decision to protect it, and ensures that any company that's going to manufacture takes a license and protects royalties, then I think the price compression should happen at a reasonable rate.”
This sound reasonable to me. What is the "reasonable rate" is the big question.
We might as well go back to the blog for this:
Quote:
Indeed, the head of Sony's American electronics operations, Stanley Glasgow, recently said he expected a $400 player would cost $300 this Christmas – a 25 per cent drop – and might be under $200 by the end of 2009.
Pretty much in line with my thinking.
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Old 03-25-2008, 05:47 PM   #78
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What worries you? The fact Sony were so right? Or the fact that HD DVD was dropped so fast that the same could happen to Blu-ray if it fails to take off as intended in the near future?
I don't know if it scares Kamspy, but it sure worries me.
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Old 03-25-2008, 05:51 PM   #79
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This sound reasonable to me. What is the "reasonable rate" is the big question.
We might as well go back to the blog for this:

Pretty much in line with my thinking.
Think that will be a low enough price to give BD a real shove towards mainstream?

Oh . . . BTW - for BD's future . . . pick one:

Niche
Mainstream.

I pick Niche.

Just a single word answer please. One or the other. We can discuss after you choose.
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Old 03-25-2008, 05:53 PM   #80
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Think that will be a low enough price to give BD a real shove towards mainstream?

Oh . . . BTW - for BD's future . . . pick one:

Niche
Mainstream.

I pick Niche.

Just a single word answer please. One or the other. We can discuss after you choose.
I already picked niche in the poll.
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Old 03-25-2008, 06:11 PM   #81
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I already picked niche in the poll.
OK - good to know.

So you agree BD has many hurdles to jump over and BD is not the only competitor in the race . . . .that is a question by the way.
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Old 03-25-2008, 06:21 PM   #82
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OK - good to know.

So you agree BD has many hurdles to jump over and BD is not the only competitor in the race . . . .that is a question by the way.
How much time is BD going to have before some super format comes along? That is the biggest problem for BD, which for me isn't a problem, I'd just get the new superior tech or techs. If BD had 5 or so good years from now to work with it could be the dominate format sold however. How long before a BD player is not priced much higher than a decent DVD? When that day comes, why would most buy a DVD player instead of a BD player?
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Old 03-25-2008, 06:29 PM   #83
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How much time is BD going to have before some super format comes along? That is the biggest problem for BD, which for me isn't a problem, I'd just get the new superior tech or techs. If BD had 5 or so good years from now to work with it could be the dominate format sold however. How long before a BD player is not priced much higher than a decent DVD? When that day comes, why would most buy a DVD player instead of a BD player?
I think that SD DVD has a long established place in the market, whereas BD is still so young that if something comes along to replace it you would be quickly limited in players, etc., like we are seeing with HD DVD players.

Now the HD DVD movies already mfg and in retailers hands are going away today from the largest HDM retailer (BB).

What happens if BD doesn't take off relatively quickly? Will it happen this fast with BD as it is happening with HD DVD?

Remember, that if you are collecting/buying a lot of movies on BD and it goes away, you will then have to buy the movies yet again on that new format you stated you will buy. How many times will you buy the same movie?

I personally think the window is much smaller for BD to take hold than many here think, before the studios (other than Sony Studios) lose interest. I believe that the player prices are the key to eventually getting lower BD movie prices, but BD movies will likely cost much more than the player ever would if you buy a lot of BD movies.

Call me impatient, but I own two BD players and i am being much more conservative with buying movies right now. I want to SEE both the CE companies AND the studios SHOW ME they are serious about making BD a long term format.
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Old 03-25-2008, 06:47 PM   #84
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Youre referring to economy of scales to reduce cost. And having 2 formats prevented that.
According to the wikipedia entry Beta finally bowed out when they could no longer compete price wise since VCR CE companies had enough of a market share to incorporate large reductions in manufacturing costs.
I am saying that it is hard to compare the recent phenomenon of BD vs adoption of VHS as a standard as the price disparity for adoption was so great. Never have I seen DVD or HDM for 100 bucks nor blank single DVD's for 12-20 a pop (and that was 80's money).

I can not subscribe to your claim that a format war prevents a manufacturer from lowering prices due to manufacturing scale. To my memory, by the time BETA packed it in their recorders were around 300 bucks, so they went down to less than a third of the intro price fairly quickly. And again, that was mostly due to technology being able to lower the parts count in the machines, for both formats.

I guess if you are trying to say that BD will now become affordable because there is no longer a war, I just don't see it that way. As with tape, surely the manufacturer(s) will be able to develop new chips and components that allow for lower manufacturing cost. That is something that would happen anyway, even with two formats, IMO. The threat is that without competition, manufacturers may not invest enough money to develop those new components expeditiously, again IMO.
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Old 03-25-2008, 06:55 PM   #85
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I think that SD DVD has a long established place in the market, whereas BD is still so young that if something comes along to replace it you would be quickly limited in players, etc., like we are seeing with HD DVD players.

Now the HD DVD movies already mfg and in retailers hands are going away today from the largest HDM retailer (BB).

What happens if BD doesn't take off relatively quickly? Will it happen this fast with BD as it is happening with HD DVD?
This is true but what can be or would even want to be done if a superior format/tech pops up at this early stage of BD?

Quote:
Remember, that if you are collecting/buying a lot of movies on BD and it goes away, you will then have to buy the movies yet again on that new format you stated you will buy. How many times will you buy the same movie?
This has and will always be a problem with a physical format.

Quote:
I personally think the window is much smaller for BD to take hold than many here think, before the studios (other than Sony Studios) lose interest. I believe that the player prices are the key to eventually getting lower BD movie prices, but BD movies will likely cost much more than the player ever would if you buy a lot of BD movies.
Lose interest in favor of what? The DVD market is already almost fully tapped. Downloads, PPV and VOD are already out and have been going for years. As studios get the cost to release BDs down, why would they not?

Quote:
Call me impatient, but I own two BD players and i am being much more conservative with buying movies right now. I want to SEE both the CE companies AND the studios SHOW ME they are serious about making BD a long term format.
You admit BD need in the marketplace is iffy. Do you expect companies to pour everything they have into an unproven market and risk disaster. As the market grows you will see a lot more.
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Old 03-25-2008, 06:58 PM   #86
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How much time is BD going to have before some super format comes along? That is the biggest problem for BD, which for me isn't a problem, I'd just get the new superior tech or techs.
There won't be a new format for at least 10 to 15 years if not longer - like Super HD (4K)

BD's biggest problem is the competition - HD from CBL/OTA/SAT/TELCO. Everyone is fighting it out for the consumers HD dollars - don't kid yourself.

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If BD had 5 or so good years from now to work with it could be the dominate format sold however. How long before a BD player is not priced much higher than a decent DVD? When that day comes, why would most buy a DVD player instead of a BD player?
Your business model says BD will replace DVD . . . at the same prices?: What's the point?

Do you have any linkable proof that the consumer in general - J6P - wants to buy BD the same way he bought DVD? Cause all my links say the opposite.
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Old 03-25-2008, 08:12 PM   #87
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We are definitely NOT on the same page when it comes to the definition of niche. Not if that is your definition.

Do you know the difference between a Vertical market and a Niche market? Because you seem to be confusing the two.
Im actually reading off my textbook, and heres the wikipedia definition if you want.
"By definition, then, a business that focuses on a niche market is addressing a need for a product or service that is not being addressed by mainstream providers."
Thats the pretty common definition. I dont know what you think 'niche' means.
So either both BD and HDTV are niche, or you consider both of them to be mainstream. Take your pick.

Last edited by ssjLancer; 03-25-2008 at 08:15 PM..
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Old 03-25-2008, 08:16 PM   #88
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Im actually reading off my textbook, and heres the wikipedia definition if you want.
"By definition, then, a business that focuses on a niche market is addressing a need for a product or service that is not being addressed by mainstream providers."
Thats the pretty common definition. I dont know what you think 'niche' means.
Show me the definition of "mainstream"

From Wiki (Niche Market)

Quote:
Niche market ventures may become profitable even though they are by nature small in comparison to the mainstream marketplace, due to the benefits of specialization and focus on small identifiable market segments; even without the benefit of economy of scale. Niche markets may be ignored or discounted by large businesses due to what they consider to be small potential; this in turn is part of the process that makes the niche market available to smaller businesses. The key to capitalizing on a niche market is to find or develop a market niche that has customers who are accessible, that is growing fast enough, and that is not owned by one established vendor already.
When we discuss "niche market" when it comes to home video - if LD doesn't come into your mind then we have nothing to discuss.

Last edited by Lee Stewart; 03-25-2008 at 08:21 PM..
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Old 03-25-2008, 08:19 PM   #89
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Below.
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Old 03-25-2008, 08:21 PM   #90
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Niche market ventures may become profitable even though they are by nature small in comparison to the mainstream marketplace
Yup, and didnt you say only 30% of people own an HDTV?
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and that is not owned by one established vendor already.
Guess that puts BD out of the niche status, since multiple vendors own it.

So yeah, unless you consider both BD and HDTV to be niche. Or you consider both of them to be mainstream. Take your pick.
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