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DVDEmpire has HD DVD winning 58.14% to 41.86% for Bluray

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Old 12-19-2007, 04:12 AM   #1  
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Default DVDEmpire has HD DVD winning 58.14% to 41.86% for Bluray

How acurate is DVDEmpire to Nelson Ratings?
http://www.dvdempire.com/index.asp?u...ite_media_id=0
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Old 12-19-2007, 05:00 AM   #2  
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I don't know but if those numbers are even close to accurate then It looks like those are just DVD Empire's sales though.
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Old 12-19-2007, 06:44 AM   #3  
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http:///2bz9bq

Guide to Sales Metrics
I have made this little guide to try and define each metric as objectively as possible. I didn’t see anything like this in the High Def FAQ. I felt that since we always debate each other about this information, we should all be on the same page. If you feel I have made any mistakes, omissions, or given any metric unfair treatment, leave a comment and I will try to keep the OP up to date.

Amazon Salesrank
The current rank, within a category (for the purposes of HDM we are speaking of the DVD category), at Amazon.com. This data is interesting but should be taken with a grain of salt. From this data we can usually assert that “Title A” will do better than “Title B” or that a dual release title is selling better on one format or the other. But these ranks should never be confused with sales volume. Prices and sales at amazon may skew sales ranks so they poorly reflect the total HDM market. Much attention is paid to this number because it is the most easily available number to reflect up to the minute consumer purchasing patterns. Sales Rank information can be found at this site and at eproductwars. It is usually contradicted when VideoScan numbers come out. This is Amazon's official word on sales rank. Aurora has provided us with excellent information from an amazon insider about the true nature of sales rank, this post is a must read.

DVD Empire
Is an online retailer which provides live sales ratios of BR:HD DVD. This suffers from the same problems as Salesrank data it is derived from information from a single online only retailer and although it does not line up completely with VideoScan, it generally follows the trend within a few points. Throughout 2007, there has also a bizarre phenomenon when looking at the current week, for some reason HD DVD seems to lead early in the week by a wide margin which is later wiped out later in the week.

VideoScan
A report released on a weekly basis by the market research firm Nielsen. This report covers approximately 60-70% of all media sales in most channels both B & M and online retailers. The information in VideoScan pertains to sales of the previous week Monday through Sunday.
The numbers they report are based on POS receipts. That means that if you go to a store and a movie appears on your receipt, it counts; if you go to Amazon and the movie appears in your shopping cart and you checkout, it counts; if you make a preorder at Amazon or Best Buy, it doesn’t count; if you purchase a player with a disc in the box, it doesn’t count; if you receive movies via a mail in rebate offer, they don’t count.
The most controversial issue about VideoScan figures is they do not include Wal*Mart’s sales figures. Despite the Wal*Mart issue, these numbers are the most accurate available because they provide a broad cross section that includes most retailers and all US HDM products.
These numbers are released to the public on Fridays via Home Media Magazine.
Elemenets of VideoScan
A ratio of “Blu Ray:HD DVD” sales
A top ten listing of units by volume which intermingles HD DVD and Blu Ray
Each top ten is given a number. #1 always receiving a 100, subsequently #2-#10 receive a number less than 100 which indicates the volume sold relative to #1
There is a list of the top 5 for each format.
Each top five is given a number. #1 always receiving a 100, subsequently #2-#5 receive a number less than 100 which indicates the volume sold relative to that format's #1

First Alert
This is like a preview of the VideoScan, it comes out on Wednesdays when Hollywood Reporter usually runs an article mentioning the top few DVDs, the top HD DVD and the top BR as well as some rental numbers.

Total Sales
The actual total sales of a movie or format, this number is not generally available on any kind of schedule. Occasionally it is released by a studio to tout sales of a movie (such as after 300, Transformers, Spiderman 3). Occasionally the number for total format sales will be released or leaked to the public (such as at CEDIA in Sept). These are the most meaningful metrics for software sale but they are also the least available, when they are released they are almost always released by a biased source pushing an agenda and as such the validity is almost always contested when they are released. International software sales are also tracked by GfK and are released to the public through various sources, but not on a regular schedule.

Player types:
Stand Alone Players are dedicated playback devices which are designed to be used in the living room.

Console Players are players which are also video game consoles which are designed to be used in the living room; this category includes Playstation 3 and the XBOX 360 HD DVD Add-on.

Computer Players are computers which have an optical drive capable of reading HDM these are generally not designed to be used in the living room; this includes laptops, desktops, and HTPCs.

Install Base
The number of house holds that have a device which is capable of playing back a specific format of high def media. This number is difficult to track because it requires knowing how many households have multiple players.

Player sales
The number of devices sold which are capable of playing back a specific format of high def media. This number is easily tracked because it simply considers sales. In the North America the leading firm that tracks this information is the NPD Group. Internationally German based GfK provides information for Europe, Japan, and other markets. Information from NPD and GfK is leaked from various media and insider sources on an irregular basis. For console sales information there is vgchartz.com which tracks sales and provides information to the public.

The subtle differences between install base and player sales is that player sales will always be greater than install base, especially as more people buy second players.

Attach Rate
The number of media purchased divided by player sales (because of the difficulty tracking install base).
Attach Rate = (media sales) / (player sales)
This is a bit controversial because the results for this can be dramatically affected by the non-standard methods for calculating this composite number. By excluding stand alone, console, and/or computer player sales, the denominator can be changed to achieve the desired results. This happens because owners of multi-purpose devices (consoles and computers) have different purchasing patterns than owners of dedicated devices.
The other problem with this number is that it typically considers present players and historical media sales. So a jump in player sales causes a significant drop in attach rate. In other words, a sales spike triggers a drop off in attach rates.
In an ideal world with total information, attach rate would be calculated on a periodic basis where install base could be considered over player sales, multi-purpose devices could be handicapped against stand alone players, and you would compare current install base vs. current sales. The formula might look something like this:
Attach Rate = (This weeks media sales) / (Install base SA + Install base Console * Usage rate console + Install base computer * Usage rate computer)
The real world is not ideal. When attach rates are released, they have been released by themselves, meaning that neither the media sales nor the hardware sales have accompanied the release. The typical retort is that the individual or group who released the attach rate has cherry picked which devices they are attaching the media to. The implication is that the actual media or player sales are unfavorable to the agenda of the individual or group who has released the attach rate.
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Old 12-19-2007, 06:50 AM   #4  
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If BR did good last week, we'll hear about it today. If not, we wait until Friday.
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Old 12-19-2007, 06:56 AM   #5  
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Originally Posted by Hip Name Here View Post
If BR did good last week, we'll hear about it today. If not, we wait until Friday.

David Vaughn over at AVS has been giving out the numbers Wednesday night for the last 3 weeks so we should have them tonite.
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Old 12-19-2007, 06:59 AM   #6  
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Originally Posted by Hip Name Here View Post
If BR did good last week, we'll hear about it today. If not, we wait until Friday.
So you notice that to. I notice that when its higher then like 65% the number get "leaked" out on wensday but when its closer like in the 50's the number comes out on Friday so if the number dont come out on friday or get delayed then you pretty much know that HDDVD when this week
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Old 12-19-2007, 07:07 AM   #7  
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I think the answer to the question is that DVD Empire is too small to be any indicator. For some reason, DVD Empire usually has Blu-ray winning by a smaller margin than Videoscan. The week ended Sunday, December 16th should be another close win for Blu-ray based on everything I can gather. I don't know if that DVD Empire weekly figure is the week ended December 16th or not, I didn't try to figure that out.

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Old 12-19-2007, 07:08 AM   #8  
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Originally Posted by Qbfinest83 View Post
So you notice that to. I notice that when its higher then like 65% the number get "leaked" out on wensday but when its closer like in the 50's the number comes out on Friday so if the number dont come out on friday or get delayed then you pretty much know that HDDVD when this week
There's a pattern for sure. Only way we know for sure is if HD DVD did great last week and we see numbers today or Friday.
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Old 12-19-2007, 09:50 AM   #9  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Recherché View Post
How acurate is DVDEmpire to Nelson Ratings?
http://www.dvdempire.com/index.asp?u...ite_media_id=0
Not that DVD Empire represents absolutely anything but you should look again, it's actually 58% for Blu and 41 for HD-DVD
Assuming you are refering to the December 18th week ?
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Old 12-19-2007, 09:51 AM   #10  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by quexos View Post
Not that DVD Empire represents absolutely anything but you should look again, it's actually 58% for Blu and 41 for HD-DVD
Even if that is the true numbers.. still not bad for a format that is WAAAAY outnumbered, agreed?
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Old 12-19-2007, 09:53 AM   #11  
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Originally Posted by Stew4HD View Post
Even if that is the true numbers.. still not bad for a format that is WAAAAY outnumbered, agreed?
hmm if you admit my microwave is cool and your suck, then agreed for DVD Empire
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Old 12-19-2007, 09:55 AM   #12  
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hmm if you admit my microwave is cool and your suck, then agreed for DVD Empire
argh... ok.. your microwave is much cooler than mine, mine sucks
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Old 12-19-2007, 10:17 AM   #13  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Recherché View Post
How acurate is DVDEmpire to Nelson Ratings?
http://www.dvdempire.com/index.asp?u...ite_media_id=0
Are you slow or something?? Read your own link for Christ's sake. It's Blu-Ray that has the higher percentage, not HDDVD:

Week: BD 58.64% HDDVD 41.36%
Month: BD 62.03% HDDVD 37.97%
Year: BD 62.03% HDDVD 37.97%

(PS: Strange that December is EXACTLY the same as for all of the Year)

PS: I'm getting tired of all the Spam and misinformation threads this morning.
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Old 12-19-2007, 10:26 AM   #14  
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Originally Posted by tomes View Post
Are you slow or something?? Read your own link for Christ's sake. It's Blu-Ray that has the higher percentage, not HDDVD:

Week: BD 58.64% HDDVD 41.36%
Month: BD 62.03% HDDVD 37.97%
Year: BD 62.03% HDDVD 37.97%

(PS: Strange that December is EXACTLY the same as for all of the Year)

PS: I'm getting tired of all the Spam and misinformation threads this morning.
To be fair, the numbers were different at the time he posted the link and they were in favor of HD DVD.

(Not that the numbers on one retailer's site would matter much)
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Old 12-19-2007, 10:38 AM   #15  
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Originally Posted by Nikopol View Post
To be fair, the numbers were different at the time he posted the link and they were in favor of HD DVD.

(Not that the numbers on one retailer's site would matter much)
Thanks Nikopol, at least his report was accurate at the time he made them so I retract that part of that statement.

He still omitted yearly/monthly numbers (unless they were wrong too)
And as you say, numbers from one retailer isn't worth much.
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