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TVPredictions.com - Blu-ray vs. HD-DVD: No Winner at CES

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Old 01-10-2007, 10:11 PM   #16  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FourK
Now who is going to pay twice as much for a player(XA2)that doesn't offer twice the performance of the A2 brucey?

BTW I got that question from the HD DVD fanboy playbook, specifically PFC5. So I look forward to an attempt at any kind of response, should be amusing.

I also never gave "the question" any merit.

But I'll answer it anyways - Looks to me like in most cases the only people buying the XA2 are people who already own HD DVD players. Kinda funny that these people have already spent money on a player and are all of a sudden willing to spend $999 [(an outrageous sum) <also from the HD DVD fanboy playbook] on another HD player. Finally to top it off, this approach does nothing to increase the install base, nor promote increased software sales, because you're just selling to the same people again.

Cheers
It is nice that you think I wrote the "playbook" for HD-DVD fans. That is quite a compliment. Thank You!

I cannot take create for an awful lot of people using comon sense though which is all I am using to make my position known to help others understand it all. Believe me, when i first started getting involved in this debate, MOST here were favoring BD, and I was one of the few who thought that price was what would decide the format more than anything else.

Of course Sony helped out the HD-DVD "cause" a great deal and is mostly resonsible for the sea change here and most other forums with the delays, and poor BD movies they started releasing and the Samsung player not having as good a PQ for twice the money.

They can both be great formats, but the BD hardware is incomplete. Sony et al, have planned it that way so they could cash in quickly on new player upgrades from the BD loyals, extreme planned obsolesence with the 4 BD profiles (3 for video with 1 for audio only too), very high prices for the hardware, and Sony making so many mistakes about what consumers want.

Believe me, the HD-XA2 will NOT be a real big seller IMO for the same reasons the overpriced BD players are collecting dust on retailers' shelves. It will probably sell better than the BD players because it IS a COMPLETE player with EVERYTHING but the kitchen sink in it (or DTS-HD MA decoders which is held up by DTS group themselves). I am drooling over the HD-XA2, but I probably will not buy one until probably next year, but by then there most likely will be a better model out.

The masses will be going for the A2 & A20 until the Chinese players come out. If BD doesn't match these low priced Chinese mfg HD-DVD players then I think the end for BD will only be a year after that. And no, 1080p doesn't really matter and I think you are smart enough to know this is true. It is coming out in the A20 model basically for marketing purposes and it was taken from the BDA playbook.

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Old 01-10-2007, 10:20 PM   #17  
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I hope that the panic attack (by the HD DVD diehards you mention) is temporary and that Universal makes some sort of substance announcement soon. I think all HD DVD fans were disappointed in Lionsgate's aggressive BD posture and maybe some of the panic stems from the alleged AACS hack last week and think it had an effect on the studio's posturing there. I don't think it did but that's just my opinion.
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Old 01-10-2007, 10:25 PM   #18  
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I think the concern about Universal not announcing specific new titles is not a concern. Remember how high Universal is in the HD-DVD management group. Maybe they just didn't think it was appropriate to be undercutting the actual hardware announcements for HD-DVD players for a HARDWARE event.

BD had no choice but to emphasize the software side of things because they really had no news on the HARDWARE side of things. Well they did have the LG Dual Format Player but that was a negative for the BD format IMO.
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Old 01-10-2007, 11:04 PM   #19  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FourK
Now who is going to pay twice as much for a player(XA2)that doesn't offer twice the performance of the A2 brucey?
First of all, there's no need to be condescending.

To answer your question, the mid- to high-end consumer who wants the best SD upconverting along with HDMI 1.3 and 1080p/24 (the 24fps part has been set for Feb/March via FW.)

There are those who will see the value and pay for the better player. If my A1 dies, the XA2 is the player I'd choose, though that may change once the Meridian player is announced, depending on what they bring to the table.
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Old 01-11-2007, 01:45 AM   #20  
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Originally Posted by PFC5
It is nice that you think I wrote the "playbook" for HD-DVD fans. That is quite a compliment. Thank You!

I cannot take create for an awful lot of people using comon sense though which is all I am using to make my position known to help others understand it all. Believe me, when i first started getting involved in this debate, MOST here were favoring BD, and I was one of the few who thought that price was what would decide the format more than anything else.

Of course Sony helped out the HD-DVD "cause" a great deal and is mostly resonsible for the sea change here and most other forums with the delays, and poor BD movies they started releasing and the Samsung player not having as good a PQ for twice the money.

They can both be great formats, but the BD hardware is incomplete. Sony et al, have planned it that way so they could cash in quickly on new player upgrades from the BD loyals, extreme planned obsolesence with the 4 BD profiles (3 for video with 1 for audio only too), very high prices for the hardware, and Sony making so many mistakes about what consumers want.

Believe me, the HD-XA2 will NOT be a real big seller IMO for the same reasons the overpriced BD players are collecting dust on retailers' shelves. It will probably sell better than the BD players because it IS a COMPLETE player with EVERYTHING but the kitchen sink in it (or DTS-HD MA decoders which is held up by DTS group themselves). I am drooling over the HD-XA2, but I probably will not buy one until probably next year, but by then there most likely will be a better model out.

The masses will be going for the A2 & A20 until the Chinese players come out. If BD doesn't match these low priced Chinese mfg HD-DVD players then I think the end for BD will only be a year after that. And no, 1080p doesn't really matter and I think you are smart enough to know this is true. It is coming out in the A20 model basically for marketing purposes and it was taken from the BDA playbook.
I didn't mean to imply you wrote the playbook, but you should definitely trademark your "twice the money" question.

If price is the be-all-end-all, why aren't we all driving KIA's?


"Sony et al, have planned it that way so they could cash in quickly on new player upgrades from the BD loyals"

How can you possibly say that when so many HD DVD owners are going G2, in well under a year at that?


So you finally admit that HD DVD players DO NOT have all the advanced audio codecs built-in. Thank you.
As complete as the premium Toshiba's are, they do not have the media networking features that the Pioneer does. As you like to point out, Toshiba doesn't make AV Receivers (or if they do they're a non-player anyway). Most of the BDA CE's have big business hopes in the AVR market, and it makes sense from their pov to push these features in their AVR's rather than the players. I don't think it has anything to do with obsoleting first gen players on purpose. As far as interactivity goes, BD is getting spanked. But alot of us don't care, it'll come around eventually, I certainly can wait. Besides, how the hell did Warner putting pip in some of their movies suddenly make it the must-have feature for all HiDef discs? Same goes for U-control. Compared to DVD, BD is advancing quite nicely IMO.

On the Chinese thingy, doesn't this bother you, just a bit maybe? There is no money in dvd players, how do you compete with $30 players from copycat companies who completely avoid DVD Forum licensing fees. You can't, and the innovation is gone. I'm all for cheap prices and affordable goodies as much as the next guy but this to me is a little dangerous when the innovators can't compete and leave the game. Where does that leave HT enthusiasts? Honestly, who cares about mass market if the HT crowd isn't being served first. Are we going to get to the point where we can't buy groundbreaking innovations like SED because everyone owns a 50" Hungwang from Walmart? I'm not saying this is going to happen, but it's part of the reason that BD's higher hardware prices aren't a deal breaker for me.


"It is coming out in the A20 model basically for marketing purposes and it was taken from the BDA playbook."

Speaking of the BDA playbook, is HD 51 for marketing purposes as well? I think not...
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Old 01-11-2007, 02:02 AM   #21  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bruceames
I hope that the panic attack (by the HD DVD diehards you mention) is temporary and that Universal makes some sort of substance announcement soon. I think all HD DVD fans were disappointed in Lionsgate's aggressive BD posture and maybe some of the panic stems from the alleged AACS hack last week and think it had an effect on the studio's posturing there. I don't think it did but that's just my opinion.
Why? Universal has been outstanding for HD DVD in both support & quality and when it comes to them, I wouldn't sweat it one bit. As far as disappointment in the other studio's plans, no argument from me.
When I first heard the 360 add-on could hook up to a PC, I did wonder how secure it would be. But I think the AACS group soothed out any concerns that might have come up from studios.
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Old 01-11-2007, 02:06 AM   #22  
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Originally Posted by FourK
So you finally admit that HD DVD players DO NOT have all the advanced audio codecs built-in. Thank you.
As complete as the premium Toshiba's are, they do not have the media networking features that the Pioneer does.
All of the standalone HD DVD players have built in decoders for Dolby Digital Plus and Dolby TrueHD (lossless.) They also support the lossy core of DTS HD MA, though it's rumored that support for the full lossless signal will be enabled with a FW upgrade soon.

All HD DVD players must support network features on discs, as well as FW updates over the network connection (which is mandatory for the player to sport an HD DVD logo.) The Pioneer network connection is only for FW updates and will not be compatible with BD-Live.

You need to check your facts a little better.
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Old 01-11-2007, 03:07 AM   #23  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FourK
I didn't mean to imply you wrote the playbook, but you should definitely trademark your "twice the money" question.

If price is the be-all-end-all, why aren't we all driving KIA's?
Cars are a necessity for most people in this day and age. Yes people will buy a variety of makes/models, but how many buy Porche, BMW, Rolls Royce, etc? Now how many will buy Chevy, Ford, Toyota, etc.?

Almost everyone universally agrees that standalone player prices need to get under $300.00 to even get double digit penetration with the masses. There was actually a recent link that at the bottom it said this, but it was no surprise to most here. The point where you REALLY get acceptance and penetration is at $200.00 though. The one who gets there first will likely win the war unless the other is real close to that price also. IMO

Quote:
"Sony et al, have planned it that way so they could cash in quickly on new player upgrades from the BD loyals"

How can you possibly say that when so many HD DVD owners are going G2, in well under a year at that?
Easy. They are doing it for a variety of reasons but it is a choice, NOT because they cannot play the newer interactive features because the 1G players cannot play them. The current BD players WILL REQUIRE this to play the newer features that are the only possible reason to have the additional storage capacity. THAT is the difference!!!!!! The BD companies are laughing at BD fans and calling them CHUMPS in the board room meetings you can almost count on that. I am sure they are having quite the laugh about it actually.

NONE of the current BD players are even Profile1.1 never mind Profile2, so they will be doorstops for ANY interactive online features at the very least. I recently posted a link explaining the various BD Profiles that will be coming. Since you used the automobile analogy, lets try this one out:

What if the Toyota cars could only go 65 MPH, but Toyota was trying to convince/lobby Congress to raise the speed limit to 85MPH, and they KNEW that this was going to happen because of their lobbying efforts. Would you be ticked off that they STILL planned to sell you cars that only ran at 65MPH for the next year and if you wanted to keep up in traffic then you would have to buy a new car? How about the resale value of your current BD player (er, I mean Toyota car)? How much would it be worth after it becomes known as the doorstop that it is?

Quote:
So you finally admit that HD DVD players DO NOT have all the advanced audio codecs built-in. Thank you.

As complete as the premium Toshiba's are, they do not have the media networking features that the Pioneer does. As you like to point out, Toshiba doesn't make AV Receivers (or if they do they're a non-player anyway). Most of the BDA CE's have big business hopes in the AVR market, and it makes sense from their pov to push these features in their AVR's rather than the players. I don't think it has anything to do with obsoleting first gen players on purpose. As far as interactivity goes, BD is getting spanked. But alot of us don't care, it'll come around eventually, I certainly can wait. Besides, how the hell did Warner putting pip in some of their movies suddenly make it the must-have feature for all HiDef discs? Same goes for U-control. Compared to DVD, BD is advancing quite nicely IMO.
Why does this surprise you that I admit to something that is a fact? Have I led you to believe that I live in a fantasy world? The reason they do not have the DTS-HD MA decoders in them is because the decoders are STILL not available from the DTS group yet. You want to blame HD-DVD for this?

The fact is that NONE of the standalone BD players have ANY of the new HD audio decoders and we are still not sure that even the PS3 has the FULL DtHD decoders in it. It currently does not matter even if it does, because there is only ONE DtHD BD disc out there called Legends of Jazz. I imagine this will not be a big seller, but what do I know? I am not a fan of jazz myself.

So let me get this right. You WANT to pay much more for that BD player AND want to need to buy a new ubber expensive HDMI 1.3 receiver with the new HD audio decoders in that receiver to help support the BD companies receiver division? Or are you saying that you can just understand WHY those BD companies are doing what they are doing? Either way I find it SHOCKING that you are fine with this when there is an alternative and you can tell those bastards HELL NO! It baffles me that all the BD fans are so worried about the BD company's bottom line more than their OWN bottom line.

Knowing that the BD drive in the PS3 only costs $125.00 (iSupply provided this and many BD fans said the prices were too high on the cost list), and the BD standalone players do NOT have ANY of the New HD audio decoders yet they have an MSRP approximately TWICE the MSRP of the HD-DVD players that DO have those decoders in them.

Quote:
On the Chinese thingy, doesn't this bother you, just a bit maybe? There is no money in dvd players, how do you compete with $30 players from copycat companies who completely avoid DVD Forum licensing fees. You can't, and the innovation is gone. I'm all for cheap prices and affordable goodies as much as the next guy but this to me is a little dangerous when the innovators can't compete and leave the game. Where does that leave HT enthusiasts? Honestly, who cares about mass market if the HT crowd isn't being served first. Are we going to get to the point where we can't buy groundbreaking innovations like SED because everyone owns a 50" Hungwang from Walmart? I'm not saying this is going to happen, but it's part of the reason that BD's higher hardware prices aren't a deal breaker for me.
There are Chinese made SD DVD players now for $30.00, but I do not see that stopping the better companies from making better players even now that SD DVD players are basically a commodity. Look at Denon. They sell much better and more expensive SD DVD players and one player costs over $3,500.00 FOR A SD DVD PLAYER! Also remember that Oppo is a Chinese manufactured player and it is one of the most highly rated group of players out there.

These cheaper Chinese players WILL bring the HD-DVD players to the masses, and BD better be preparing the same approach or the curtains WILL fall on BD within a year after the CHinese players DO come, and they are coming mark my words.

It will not stop innovation for those who want it just like it has not stopped it for SD DVD players now. Oh and yes, they WILL pay the licensing fees or else those players will be stopped at Customs entry and will be confiscated. Trust me on that. Cigarette companies are already having this done to people importing cigarettes from overseas and they are NOT counterfeit cigarettes either. they are just a different formula used over in Europe vs what they sell in the USA. And everyone hates the cigarette companies now and they STILL get Customs to confiscate the "contraband".

Quote:
"It is coming out in the A20 model basically for marketing purposes and it was taken from the BDA playbook."

Speaking of the BDA playbook, is HD 51 for marketing purposes as well? I think not...
Yes it is for marketing purposes more than anything else. How else do you explain King Kong being a 3 hour movie with a 24bit/48khz DD+ soundtrack at 1.5mbps and STILL being about the BEST HD disc out there in ANY format?

1080p & 50GB storage is marketing pure and simple. Just because BD fans fell for it does not make it necessary. Again KK, PROVES that 30GB with VC-1 is all that is needed for 99% of the movies out there. Who wants to pay TWICE the price so they do not have to get up off their A$$ to switch discs when they take the bathroom break for a couple of movies?

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Old 01-11-2007, 03:34 AM   #24  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PFC5
Maybe they just didn't think it was appropriate to be undercutting the actual hardware announcements for HD-DVD players for a HARDWARE event.

BD had no choice but to emphasize the software side of things because they really had no news on the HARDWARE side of things. Well they did have the LG Dual Format Player but that was a negative for the BD format IMO.
Oh come on, don't get all plazman-like on this or I may have to throw up.

Maybe I'm imagining things but wasn't CES 2005 the big title announcement from HD DVD? I seem to remember being pissed that Blu-ray didn't announce any titles whatsoever. Maybe I'm wrong.

Anyway, if CES is "all about hardware", (which by the way is ridiculous) why is Microsoft, a SOFTWARE company, one of the biggest presences at these shows, and why the hell is Bill Gates doing the keynote year after year?

CES 2007 BD HARDWARE:
Sony "Sapphire" 1 prototype BD player -see below
Sony "Sapphire" 2 prototype BD player- low key yes, but why brag about two players if they are not yet ready to and especially after the lessons learned with all the embarrassing delays on their first machine? Not to mention the fact the frickin BDP-S1 just launched a month ago.
Sony VAIO XL3 Media PC c/w BD drive/burner
Sony VAIO RM VGC-RM1 Hi-def Video Editing System c/w BD drive/burner
Samsung BD-P1200 standalone player
Sharp DV-BP1 standalone player
Hitachi BD reference recorder standalone
Daewoo BD player *unconfirmed*
LG BH-100 FrankenBlu standalone player c/w strap-on HD DVD playback
LG GGW-H10N FrankenBluBurnin PC drive c/w strap-on HD DVD playback
Pioneer BDR-202 PC drive/burner
Pioneer BDC-202 PC drive/burner
LITEON LH-2B1S External BD drive/burner
LITEON LH-2E1S PC BD drive
HP BD135 Internal/External BD drive
LaCie d2 External BD burner
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Old 01-11-2007, 06:21 AM   #25  
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Originally Posted by I WUV HD
All of the standalone HD DVD players have built in decoders for Dolby Digital Plus and Dolby TrueHD (lossless.) They also support the lossy core of DTS HD MA, though it's rumored that support for the full lossless signal will be enabled with a FW upgrade soon.

All HD DVD players must support network features on discs, as well as FW updates over the network connection (which is mandatory for the player to sport an HD DVD logo.) The Pioneer network connection is only for FW updates and will not be compatible with BD-Live.

You need to check your facts a little better.
I guess I haven't worded my posts very well.

On the Advanced audio codecs, my point was, that no HD DVD player decodes DTS HDMA. And until they do, people shouldn't say they do.

Regarding the Pioneer, I was pointing out that it has a feature that the XA2 "best HD player" does not. So what may be the best HD player to you is not the best HD player to everyone.

"The Pioneer network connection is only for FW updates, streaming media content to/from home networked devices and will not be compatible with BD-Live."
^ Fixed...
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Old 01-11-2007, 09:19 AM   #26  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FourK
Why? Universal has been outstanding for HD DVD in both support & quality and when it comes to them, I wouldn't sweat it one bit. As far as disappointment in the other studio's plans, no argument from me.
When I first heard the 360 add-on could hook up to a PC, I did wonder how secure it would be. But I think the AACS group soothed out any concerns that might have come up from studios.
I'm not worried about Universal but I would like them to say something reaffirming their commitment to HD DVD and to throw out at least a smattering of release dates, just to put my HD DVD breathren at ease.
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Old 01-11-2007, 11:58 AM   #27  
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Originally Posted by FourK
On the Advanced audio codecs, my point was, that no HD DVD player decodes DTS HDMA. And until they do, people shouldn't say they do.
Are people making that claim? I've never seen anyone claim that the HD DVD players will decode DTS HD MA, though rumors persist that it's only a matter of time.

On the otherhand, how many players, standalone or game console, currently have functional decoders? One - the PS3.

Quote:
Originally Posted by FourK
Regarding the Pioneer, I was pointing out that it has a feature that the XA2 "best HD player" does not. So what may be the best HD player to you is not the best HD player to everyone.

"The Pioneer network connection is only for FW updates, streaming media content to/from home networked devices and will not be compatible with BD-Live."
^ Fixed...
Streaming content can be accomplished with an XBOX 360 or HTPC, as well. Anyone interested in streaming content (and possessing the necessary knowledge to set it up) probably already has something in place to make it possible. Either way, that's hardly better than supporting the format's future network-based content.

No, I'd be more worried about the "high-end" BD player that will be obsolete once the new profiles become active. It's a shame the BD forum didn't feel it necessary to mandate certain features, allowing for several different profiles, which in turn allows for mass confusion among consumers. It's also a shame that they don't bother to post on the box of these 1st gen players that "many features that will be implemented in the future will notwork on this player."
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Old 01-11-2007, 12:11 PM   #28  
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Originally Posted by FourK
Anyway, if CES is "all about hardware", (which by the way is ridiculous) why is Microsoft, a SOFTWARE company, one of the biggest presences at these shows, and why the hell is Bill Gates doing the keynote year after year?
Microsoft hasn't been "just a software company" for years - try to keep up.

HD DVD announced new partners for software in the adult and anime industries. They announced that there will be over 300 new HD DVD titles released this year alone. They also announced new hardware partners, including a company that was formerly BD-exclusive (LG.) They have covered virtually every price-range with their new partnerships withMeridian, Onkyo, and the Chinese manufacturers who are responsible for putting cheap SD DVD players on the shelves a few years back.

Oh yeah, and they also announced a new TL51 disc technology.

BD announced a bunch of titles that will be coming out through summer of 2007. Oh and the hardware you listed below, which was really nothing new in terms of innovation, brand, or design. Where are the new BD partners? Where are the BD players with BD-Live? Where are the BD players with built-in advanced audo decoders? Where are the innovations? Where's all the advanced content (aka BD-J) that was promised? Do we have to wait till CES 2008 to see all of the advanced features BD will eventually have (that HD DVD's had since day one?) Or maybe just CEDIA 2007?
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Old 01-12-2007, 01:22 AM   #29  
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I wonder what all the hard cord HD-DVD fans will say if it loses the war. Or what Blu-Ray fans will say if it loses the war. Personally, I think all you people in here(including myself) are beginning to sound like a politician running for the office. Let's stop being so radical. PEACE!
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Old 01-12-2007, 01:28 AM   #30  
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Quote:
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I wonder what all the hard cord HD-DVD fans will say if it loses the war. Or what Blu-Ray fans will say if it loses the war. Personally, I think all you people in here(including myself) are beginning to sound like a politician running for the office. Let's stop being so radical. PEACE!
I know what I'll say:





KHHHHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAANNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN!!!!!!!
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