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I Still Predict Slow Adoption of HD-DVD & Blu-ray

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Old 11-17-2006, 04:03 PM   #1  
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Default I Still Predict Slow Adoption of HD-DVD & Blu-ray

Although I think there is a market for HD-DVD and Blu-ray, I cannot see these 2 formats taking any significant market share from standard DVD. Just way too many reasons that HD-DVD and Blu-ray will go the way of SACD and DVD-Audio in the music industry, so I'd hold off on rebuilding any movie collections if I were you.

The 3 biggest reasons? Copy protection of HD-DVD/Blu-ray, porn industry won't switch to HD due to high production costs, and advantages of HD-DVD/Blu-ray over standard DVD is not enough to make consumers abandon their investment in DVD. Throw in the fact that holographic or other technology may trounce these 2 formats in a few years, and that is enough for me to stay away from yet another pet project that Sony will leave me holding the bag with in a few years. Remember the 12" laser disc?

Last edited by doggie; 11-17-2006 at 04:05 PM..
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Old 11-17-2006, 04:55 PM   #2  
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Wow.. you're really going out on a limb, aren't you?

Seriously - I think everyone knows its not going to take over overnight. Maybe it will be like laserdisc and just be an interim solution for us until the next thing is out, but I think one format will remain for awhile. Until TV's support a higher resolution, there isn't a need for anything to replace this as its small enough and can support the maximum resolution TV's support.
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Old 11-17-2006, 07:59 PM   #3  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by doggie
Although I think there is a market for HD-DVD and Blu-ray, I cannot see these 2 formats taking any significant market share from standard DVD. Just way too many reasons that HD-DVD and Blu-ray will go the way of SACD and DVD-Audio in the music industry, so I'd hold off on rebuilding any movie collections if I were you.

Meanwhile, you miss out on the fantastic HD movies available right now.

Even if they stopped releasing movies on HD DVD tomorrow, I would still feel like my $500 was well spent. I currently have 56 HD DVDs (with 8 others pre-ordered) and I have no regrets (well, LW2.)

If you worry too much about a technology becoming obsolete, you'll never buy anything. Eventually everything gets replaced with somethine newer and better. It's the nature of the beast.

Life is short. Why not enjoy HD now?

Last edited by Steeb; 11-17-2006 at 08:10 PM..
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Old 11-18-2006, 03:27 AM   #4  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by doggie
Although I think there is a market for HD-DVD and Blu-ray, I cannot see these 2 formats taking any significant market share from standard DVD. Just way too many reasons that HD-DVD and Blu-ray will go the way of SACD and DVD-Audio in the music industry, so I'd hold off on rebuilding any movie collections if I were you.

The 3 biggest reasons? Copy protection of HD-DVD/Blu-ray, porn industry won't switch to HD due to high production costs, and advantages of HD-DVD/Blu-ray over standard DVD is not enough to make consumers abandon their investment in DVD. Throw in the fact that holographic or other technology may trounce these 2 formats in a few years, and that is enough for me to stay away from yet another pet project that Sony will leave me holding the bag with in a few years. Remember the 12" laser disc?
How is Copy protection of HD_DVD/Blu-ray different than what we've had before?
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Old 11-18-2006, 07:52 AM   #5  
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I assume the OP is referring to the inability to rip the content for copying...it's only a matter of time.
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Old 11-18-2006, 08:38 AM   #6  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Steeb
I currently have 56 HD DVDs (with 8 others pre-ordered) and I have no regrets (well, LW2.)
What's wrong with LW2? I got into that movie and thought the PQ was even better than in LW. Pesci get on your nerves?

My only regret is Spartacus, but I may give it another shot as maybe I just wasn't in the mood. Mood-wise, I've noticed that PQ, for the same title, can look better on some days than others. Go figure.
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Old 11-18-2006, 09:02 AM   #7  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by doggie
Although I think there is a market for HD-DVD and Blu-ray, I cannot see these 2 formats taking any significant market share from standard DVD. Just way too many reasons that HD-DVD and Blu-ray will go the way of SACD and DVD-Audio in the music industry, so I'd hold off on rebuilding any movie collections if I were you.

The 3 biggest reasons? Copy protection of HD-DVD/Blu-ray, porn industry won't switch to HD due to high production costs, and advantages of HD-DVD/Blu-ray over standard DVD is not enough to make consumers abandon their investment in DVD. Throw in the fact that holographic or other technology may trounce these 2 formats in a few years, and that is enough for me to stay away from yet another pet project that Sony will leave me holding the bag with in a few years. Remember the 12" laser disc?
I think there is (and will be exponentially more) a huge demand for HD, and the only people who think it's no big deal are those who haven't watched it long enough (or watched it at all) to appreciate its clarity over SD. The HDTV prices just need to continue to fall and j6ps will buy at an exponential rate. I've said that $499 is a magic price point for a 32" LCD HDTV. Once people have their sets, they will want to take advantage of HD, especially when they are enticed by under $200 HD player prices (the add-on is there now, if they happen to have an xbox360). Maybe by next xmas (and definately by the xmas after), these price points will be reality.

But in any case, HD on DVD is here to stay. Sales are very good so far for such an infant format and projections for HD player penetration/HDTV pentration are strong.

And remember, an HD DVD is basically just an "enhanced" DVD, and is not anything drastically different. There will be single-sided combos out next year and I think that they will be eventually be priced the same (as non-combo new releases), meaning that HD DVD will be essentially picking DVD up off its feet so they can continue to grow together...while the inflexible, non-integratable and overpriced BD collects dust on their way to betaland.

Last edited by bruceames; 11-18-2006 at 09:12 AM..
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Old 11-18-2006, 09:29 AM   #8  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bruceames
What's wrong with LW2? I got into that movie and thought the PQ was even better than in LW. Pesci get on your nerves?

I like the movie. What I don't like is the aliasing/stair-stepping that occurs throughout the movie. I actually stopped watching ten minutes in because it was so distracting.

The straw that broke the camel's back was the scene where Riggs is getting out of the straight jacket. There's aliasing all over his face, the desk near him, etc... Lame.

LW2 is my one and only regret.
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Old 11-18-2006, 10:44 AM   #9  
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I'll have to check it out again, but I didn't notice that when I watched it a couple of months ago.
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Old 11-18-2006, 10:57 AM   #10  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bruceames
I'll have to check it out again, but I didn't notice that when I watched it a couple of months ago.

It's similar to what happens a few times in Enter the Dragon. The difference is it was way more noticeable on LW2. Bummer, too. I haven't seen it in years and was looking forward to enjoying it.
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Old 11-18-2006, 12:10 PM   #11  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bruceames
I think there is (and will be exponentially more) a huge demand for HD, and the only people who think it's no big deal are those who haven't watched it long enough (or watched it at all) to appreciate its clarity over SD. The HDTV prices just need to continue to fall and j6ps will buy at an exponential rate.
Its shocking how true the opposite of that is true. You have to remember that the average person doesn't put any emphasis at all on quality. They want to just buy a tv, plug it in, and watch tv. They've seen HD in the stores, they like HD, they want HD, but they don't buy HD. Price is one factor, but lack of knowledge is another. People stick to what they know and are hesitant to try to learn new things until they finally realize that its not just some new fad, but its simply how things are. There are many people who are finally just getting a computer to start to explore online life. Adoption is a slow process. HD is an extremely slow process.
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Old 11-18-2006, 12:28 PM   #12  
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DVD launched in March of 1996 and sold only 315k players that year.
http://www.thedigitalbits.com/articl...advdsales.html

I bet the Toshiba HD DVD player along with the xBox add-on player sell well over 600k before the end of the year.
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Old 11-18-2006, 12:34 PM   #13  
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It will come much faster than you think, Mr. P. 50% saturation of HDTV in 3 years will be a reality, and that is not "an extremely slow process". Also, you have been underestimating the "average" person. The average person for our concerns is those who would next be buying an HDTV (and later HD DVD/BD players). To say that the average person doesn't care at all about quality is ridiculous. They may not be as "picky" as we are, but they are not total morons that couldn't care less if a 3rd generation VHS tape were playing or a DVD.

HDTV is not just a fad anymore. $499 HDTVs is not a fad price.

Maybe some Okies from the Skoggies don't care about quality, but most people really do.
(no offense intended please)

Last edited by bruceames; 11-18-2006 at 12:45 PM..
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Old 11-18-2006, 04:28 PM   #14  
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I think Mr. P thinks of HD adoption as a slow process because he has had one for 3-4 years and has watched how slow it has been up to this point.

I think if he looks at the online stores and the B&M online offerings, he will see just how scant the current offerings seem to be getting for CRT based SDTVs. I was kind of shocked in the last couple of days at how many fewer tube SDTVs are out there now, AND that the prices for them are starting to go UP for the CRTs. This tells me that more & more new TVs bought are HDTVs or at least digital TVs now, and tube SDTVs that people are already familiar with are going to get MORE expensive and HDTVs are still getting LESS expensive.

I can see tube SDTVs pricing themselves out of the market within 2-3 years, just based on what I saw happen in the last 6 months. It was kind of shocking to me that average prices for 32" CRT SDTVs costing more than they did 6 months ago, and 32" LCD HDTVs coming within $150.00 of the SDTV pricing.

Bruce:

I think 50% HDTV penetration in 3 years is a low number based on what I am seeing now. It really surprised me as I was thinking of returning the LCD and getting a 32" CRT for a couple of years.

I predict a 70% HDTV adoption rate (at least one HDTV in a household) within 3 years. This does not mean that people will not keep their SDTVs but will slowly replace them with HDTVs as they break down.
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Old 11-18-2006, 04:39 PM   #15  
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You may be right, PFC5. I hope you are, 70% would be fantastic. Just a few months ago, I would be laughed at for thinking that 50% of (U.S.) homes would have at least one HDTV in three years, but now the estimate seems conservative, as the HDTV prices continue to plummet. I think once the 32" models reach $299 (in maybe two years), all hell will break loose and penetration will occur incredibly fast. Besides, as you say, it will be harder and harder to NOT buy an HDTV, and those who wait for their current TVs to rot will eventually have to buy in as their sets die.

The unknown is what the penetration rate of HD players in those homes with an HDTV. I guess it depends (as on HDTV) on how much and how fast the player prices drop.

Last edited by bruceames; 11-18-2006 at 04:42 PM..
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