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2012 Box office tracking thread

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Old 02-16-2012, 04:40 PM   #1  
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Default 2012 Box office tracking thread

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Reports of the death of the American moviegoer might have been premature. This year, box-office attendance is up an astonishing 14.6 percent from 2011, and revenue ($1.19 billion) is 14.1 percent ahead. That's after admissions plummeted to a 16-year low last year, corresponding with a 3.6 percent decline in revenue.

What's driving the renaissance? Box-office observers attribute the boom to a slate of films that appeal to all age groups, including younger adults and teens, two demos largely AWOL in 2011. "Content is the driver of the resurgence," says Warner Bros. president of domestic distribution Dan Fellman, whose all-ages Journey 2: The Mysterious Island has grossed more than $100 million worldwide.
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/new...-inside-292006
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Old 02-16-2012, 04:48 PM   #2  
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Box office is not booming. That is so stupid. It is up an "astonishing" 14% this year because it was down even more than that last year. Duh.
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Old 02-17-2012, 08:21 AM   #3  
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Yes - up 14.6% from rock bottom.

"attendance is up an astonishing 14.6 percent from 2011...after admissions plummeted to a 16-year low last year"

So attendance is up 14% from the 16 year low.

Which means attendance is still quite horrible.

Amazing - if this was talking about bluray PSound would be pickng it apart.

Instead, he probably posted this as part of his agenda to paint the box office as "booming" but not translating to bluray sales - ergo bluray is horrible - bluray is evil - bluray is killing the industry - bluray killed his dog. Everything else is booming and fine - bluray is the only bad thing in the whole world.

Sorry, but being up 14.6% from a 16 year low isn't "booming" - and it isn't something to brag about. If someone had posted an article like this about bluray it would be getting ripped to shreds here.
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Old 02-17-2012, 08:50 AM   #4  
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All above is true but IO one of the main reason BO was so terrible last year was content - If you make crap films (also for way too much money) you get crap attendance. Also more films have to be targeted for teen audiences as they sem to be the main movir goers.
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Old 02-17-2012, 08:53 AM   #5  
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Box office is not booming. That is so stupid. It is up an "astonishing" 14% this year because it was down even more than that last year. Duh.
Compared to end of 2011 and this time last year, it is definitely improving.

And you have followed the movie business enough to know that breaking existing trends in a different direction is always a big deal.
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Old 02-17-2012, 09:36 AM   #6  
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I for one passed on a lot of movies last year because I didn't have an option to view in 2D. I also didn't buy as many blu-rays as I normally have because of lack of content. No value.
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Old 02-17-2012, 09:44 AM   #7  
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Compared to end of 2011 and this time last year, it is definitely improving.

And you have followed the movie business enough to know that breaking existing trends in a different direction is always a big deal.
It's a big deal that the box office is "recovering" from a slump last year, as people tend to think it could be a permanent downwards trend. But the bigger deal was the slump in the first place. Now box office is back to normal, and that's hardly "astonishing".

If it starts breaking all time attendance records, or at least hits 20 year attendance highs, then we can wheel out the "astonishing" adjective.
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Old 02-17-2012, 09:45 AM   #8  
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Compared to end of 2011 and this time last year, it is definitely improving.
So compared to rock bottom, things are looking good.

That's comforting.

14.6% better than rock bottom = BOOMING!!!!

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Originally Posted by PSound View Post
And you have followed the movie business enough to know that breaking existing trends in a different direction is always a big deal.
Well then at least 2012 won't be rock bottom then. Cheers for Hollywood! Everything is all better!
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Old 02-17-2012, 09:47 AM   #9  
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All above is true but IO one of the main reason BO was so terrible last year was content - If you make crap films (also for way too much money) you get crap attendance. Also more films have to be targeted for teen audiences as they sem to be the main movir goers.
That's an interesting point. I have thought that myself, but then I figured it was because I was just getting older and so it seemed that the movie mix have shifted to a younger audience. I'd like to know if that is really true.
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Old 02-17-2012, 10:41 AM   #10  
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That's an interesting point. I have thought that myself, but then I figured it was because I was just getting older and so it seemed that the movie mix have shifted to a younger audience. I'd like to know if that is really true.
2010 Theatrical Market Statistics

http://www.mpaa.org/policy/industry
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Old 02-17-2012, 02:21 PM   #11  
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Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
It's a big deal that the box office is "recovering" from a slump last year, as people tend to think it could be a permanent downwards trend. But the bigger deal was the slump in the first place. Now box office is back to normal, and that's hardly "astonishing".

If it starts breaking all time attendance records, or at least hits 20 year attendance highs, then we can wheel out the "astonishing" adjective.
YoY comparisons are going to be made. And are going to be valid.
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Old 02-22-2012, 09:52 AM   #12  
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As of 2/20, box office is now up 17.7% over 2011.

And if Hunger Games hits, it could be up by even more by end of Q1.
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Old 02-22-2012, 11:04 AM   #13  
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As of 2/20, box office is now up 17.7% over 2011.

And if Hunger Games hits, it could be up by even more by end of Q1.
What's the average lead time from theater to OD? Would a strong Q1 affect Q2 or Q3 more?
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Old 02-22-2012, 12:10 PM   #14  
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What's the average lead time from theater to OD? Would a strong Q1 affect Q2 or Q3 more?
It depends.

Last year the studios opted to pump some releases that would generally be Q4 into Q3. That (along with Star Wars) is the reason Q3 was unusually strong last year. But last year had a glut of superhero movies. This year it looks like there are less overall comic movies, with Avengers and Dark Knight each looking to be monsters.


The sequel to Hunger Games is not releasing until November 2013, so Lionsgate may not be in a hurry to release it in Q3. They may try and do the Summit technique of a midnight release near a holiday.

EDIT: Short story is early 2012 releases will be Q3 or Q4. Late 2011 releases (like Mission Impossible, Warhorse, most of the Oscar arthouse movies, etc) will be Q2.
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Old 02-22-2012, 03:26 PM   #15  
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What's the average lead time from theater to OD? Would a strong Q1 affect Q2 or Q3 more?
120 to 130 days after theatrical release generally is the ARR time for a new movie to show up on home theater release.

About 4 months from the time it first hits the theater to home video or about two to three months from the end of the major 4-8 theatrical run in most markets.





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