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Forbes: With Home Entertainment Sales Spiraling Downward, Studios Turn to UltraViolet

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Old 12-25-2011, 03:39 PM   #76  
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...But from the business and trend perspective, it is rather silly to downplay the potential impact of EST to the Home Video business..
This impact?

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Old 12-25-2011, 03:40 PM   #77  
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I understand where you are coming from as an enthusiast.

But from the business and trend perspective, it is rather silly to downplay the potential impact of EST to the Home Video business.

And your bullet points certainly point out that you are not the demographic who does not want discs. But make no doubt that the demo exists and is likely to grow even as the disc buying trends continue to decline.
My bullet points were about the quality differences between the two delivery models. And I think you're overstating this growing aversion to discs. It's not any more of an aversion than what there would be to books.

The primary appeal to EST seems to be TV shows, because that kind of short range content is more applicable to watching on a moniter, smart phone or ipad.
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Old 12-25-2011, 03:44 PM   #78  
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The primary appeal to EST seems to be TV shows, because that kind of short range content is more applicable to watching on a moniter, smart phone or ipad.
Yup. Digital TV seasons are truly more convenient than they are on disc because there is no need for disc switching.

But digital movies don't have the same advantage since you don't need to switch discs for a movie.
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Old 12-25-2011, 03:45 PM   #79  
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So to recap:

That's a lot to give up in order to lose the "annoyance" of discs. Now that's what I call convenience at all costs.
Couldn't have said it better myself!
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Old 12-25-2011, 03:59 PM   #80  
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$683 million from a non standardized format with a piss poor model is not small to me.
The DEG has been revising that 2010 $683 million EST figure throughout this year. The original DEG Q3 2010 report pegged EST at $432 million up until that point.

The new figures are as follows:

http://www.degonline.org/pressreleas...011_REPORT.pdf

Q1-Q3 2010 - $380.43 million (revised)
Q1-Q3 2011 - $406.22 million

It looks rather doubtful that EST will even reach $683 million by the end of this year.
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Old 12-25-2011, 03:59 PM   #81  
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My bullet points were about the quality differences between the two delivery models. And I think you're overstating this growing aversion to discs. It's not any more of an aversion than what there would be to books.

The primary appeal to EST seems to be TV shows, because that kind of short range content is more applicable to watching on a moniter, smart phone or ipad.
You believe that content sell through for EST is primarily driven by TV content?

Very interesting, particularly in light of Vudu's rapidly growing EST share.
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Old 12-25-2011, 04:02 PM   #82  
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You believe that content sell through for EST is primarily driven by TV content?

Very interesting, particularly in light of Vudu's rapidly growing EST share.
Yeah, that's what I've been led to believe.

Does anyone have the break down of that? I thought most of it is TV shows, and the graph above seems to reinforce that.
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Old 12-25-2011, 04:03 PM   #83  
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Originally Posted by Dave J View Post
The DEG has been revising that 2010 $683 million EST figure throughout this year. The original DEG Q3 2010 report pegged EST at $432 million up until that point.

The new figures are as follows:

http://www.degonline.org/pressreleas...011_REPORT.pdf

Q1-Q3 2010 - $380.43 million (revised)
Q1-Q3 2011 - $406.22 million

It looks rather doubtful that EST will even reach $683 million by the end of this year.

Interesting, thanks for the info!
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Old 12-25-2011, 04:05 PM   #84  
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You believe that content sell through for EST is primarily driven by TV content?

Very interesting, particularly in light of Vudu's rapidly growing EST share.
So you can show the split between TV/movies that Vudu sells and how much money they have generated from each? And what % that contributed to the so-called $683M?
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Old 12-25-2011, 04:07 PM   #85  
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Originally Posted by Dave J View Post
The DEG has been revising that 2010 $683 million EST figure throughout this year. The original DEG Q3 2010 report pegged EST at $432 million up until that point.

The new figures are as follows:

http://www.degonline.org/pressreleas...011_REPORT.pdf

Q1-Q3 2010 - $380.43 million (revised)
Q1-Q3 2011 - $406.22 million

It looks rather doubtful that EST will even reach $683 million by the end of this year.
Interesting. So the IHS estimate of $644M for 2011 may actually be higher than the DEG number comes out to be.

PSound previously took issue between IHS and DEG data. I guess now if IHS is higher they will be the good guys and DEG will be wrong. I mean - whoever has the higher number for EST will be who he sides with.
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Old 12-25-2011, 04:14 PM   #86  
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The DEG 2010 revised estimate should end up short of $644 million, unless Q4 EST sales are typically well above the other quarters, as in OD. But I wouldn't think so, since they're mostly TV shows and EST files make poor gifts to put under the tree.
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Old 12-25-2011, 04:24 PM   #87  
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The DEG 2010 revised estimate should end up short of $644 million, unless Q4 EST sales are typically well above the other quarters, as in OD. But I wouldn't think so, since they're mostly TV shows and EST files make poor gifts to put under the tree.
This brings up another point. As each year passes I expect the 4th quarter for Home Video sales to get less and less % wise for the total year. It will have less and less meaning as people go towards digital.

IMO the studios rely WAY TOO much on the loss leader in strores. I expect less and less loss leader strategy of OD in the future.
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Old 12-25-2011, 04:24 PM   #88  
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Yeah, that's what I've been led to believe.

Does anyone have the break down of that? I thought most of it is TV shows, and the graph above seems to reinforce that.
I have not seen any data on the split between TV shows and movies for EST.

Netflix reports that about half their streaming viewing is TV shows, but that is an entirely different model. Indeed, I would never pay to own "Cheers", but will occasionally watch an episode on Netflix simply because it is there when I want it at no additional cost.

Likewise, we have made our way through all of "The Office" (on Netflix streaming) and really enjoy it. But I would not pay to "own" it.
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Old 12-25-2011, 04:26 PM   #89  
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The DEG 2010 revised estimate should end up short of $644 million, unless Q4 EST sales are typically well above the other quarters, as in OD. But I wouldn't think so, since they're mostly TV shows and EST files make poor gifts to put under the tree.
I think you assuming EST is mostly (or even significantly) TV shows is a faulty assumption.

If there is data to support that, it would be good to see. I just think it is a poor assumption without supporting data. And building opinion off of poor assumptions is a recipe for disaster.
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Old 12-25-2011, 04:33 PM   #90  
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This brings up another point. As each year passes I expect the 4th quarter for Home Video sales to get less and less % wise for the total year. It will have less and less meaning as people go towards digital.
It's already doing that. Historically Q4 = Q1-3, but last year Q4 (for BD) was only 43.2% of the yearly sales. This year it's looking about the same.

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IMO the stuios rely WAY TOO much on the loss leader in strores. I expect less and less loss leader strategy of OD in the future.
I do too. Once they stop being a main driver of traffic to their stores, they can go tell the studios to stuff it. And they'll be screwed.

But having said that, I don't think retailers are really taking it on the chin as much as some people want you to believe. It just seems to be too easy a money for the studios for retailers to be always selling the top moving titles at a loss. I think there is compensation involved.
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