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Optical (Blu-ray/DVD) and Digital (EST/UV) Sales Thread

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Old 02-09-2012, 10:41 AM   #1456  
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Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
Things are only going to get worse for DVD, and like you say, Blu-ray is consistently not there to pick up the slack. It can barely keep up with its own pace. Hopefully next week we can finally see double digit YoY gains for the underperforming format.
Next week should be monster gain for Blu-ray. The box office lead-in is overwhelmingly in favor of 2012.
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Old 02-09-2012, 10:56 AM   #1457  
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Next week should be monster gain for Blu-ray. The box office lead-in is overwhelmingly in favor of 2012.
So then next week should also be a monster gain for EST too right?
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Old 02-09-2012, 11:13 AM   #1458  
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Umm I think that's why he said "if they deliver" like they did with thier other hit products. Because "if" it's a hit like those products? It can make big changes.
So then he was implying that Apple TV has been a failure?

Because it hasn't changed HD content consumption despite being a mere $100 add on for HDTVs.

But yet a $1500 TV with the same basic functionality will? Hmm....
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Old 02-09-2012, 11:31 AM   #1459  
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Anyone ever wonder why, in year 2012, we STILL don't get weekly EST numbers from any industry source?
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Old 02-09-2012, 11:39 AM   #1460  
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Anyone ever wonder why, in year 2012, we STILL don't get weekly EST numbers from any industry source?
They are probably too low just like Blu-ray or HD DVD sales in 2006 and 2007.

Plus there is no centralized independent industry aggregator doing weekly revenue reporting like there is for physical sell through or rental sales AFAIK or we have not seen those reports.

There are some reports on digital EST sell through Top 10 lists from iTunes Cinemanow and Rentrak for VOD but none of though have revenue figures or index numbers attached to them. Those are on the Digital Evolution coverage page in the weekly Home Media Magazine issues.
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Old 02-09-2012, 08:26 PM   #1461  
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Blu-ray had three new releases with pretty high marketshare this week.

Blu-Ray Unit Marketshare 2/05/12

57% Drive
54% In Time
55% The Thing
Let's see what the market share for those titles will be next week and the weeks that follow.

Here are the corresponding DVD shares:

43% Drive
46% In Time
45% The Thing

Which format will have "legs"? Time will tell, stay tuned
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Old 02-09-2012, 08:30 PM   #1462  
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Next week should be monster gain for Blu-ray. The box office lead-in is overwhelmingly in favor of 2012.
I smack my head HARD at the people who continuously focus solely on BO lead-in. The trend is that it has not been indicative of new release strength for the last 2 weeks of comparisons.

Make that 3.

What looks like weak releases a year ago was actually quite strong thanks to Alice in Wonderland, an important catalog release, Let Me In, a cult horror favorite, and Beverly Hills Chihuahua, a popular DTV release.

They combined for ~500,000 units.That is several times more units than you'd expect from just $12M.

The TF3 3D edition is about the only help this week got in terms of understated releases.

Last edited by cakefoo; 02-09-2012 at 08:35 PM..
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Old 02-09-2012, 08:31 PM   #1463  
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History will PROVE that bd% will go down and dvd% will go up after the first week.
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Old 02-10-2012, 08:18 AM   #1464  
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Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
Let's see what the market share for those titles will be next week and the weeks that follow.

Here are the corresponding DVD shares:

43% Drive
46% In Time
45% The Thing

Which format will have "legs"? Time will tell, stay tuned
Well we shall see. But the trends should extend more than eight weeks and include the times we see the percentages including off the BD Title Share chart and not just when they hit the Top 20 Sellers chart where the DVD volumes would tend to be bigger because of sales.
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Old 02-10-2012, 09:39 AM   #1465  
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Well we shall see. But the trends should extend more than eight weeks and include the times we see the percentages including off the BD Title Share chart and not just when they hit the Top 20 Sellers chart where the DVD volumes would tend to be bigger because of sales.
I'll repeat - - - -

The 3 Blu-rays you mentioned were under $19.99.

Not to mention
2 out of the 3 included a DVD
3 out of the 3 included a Digital copy/ UV

Pretty startling? Blu-ray requires the need of a DVD or DC/UV just to sell. It needs to be $20 or less. A 20% (about $4) premium over the DVD apparently pays for the Blu-ray disc and DC/UV? Seems like they are losing money on the Blu-ray SKU. Pretty embarrassing.
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Old 02-10-2012, 10:25 AM   #1466  
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Well we shall see. But the trends should extend more than eight weeks and include the times we see the percentages including off the BD Title Share chart and not just when they hit the Top 20 Sellers chart where the DVD volumes would tend to be bigger because of sales.
My research on top 20 behavior shows that any abnormal spikes in marketshare most of the time tends to be due to a sale on the Blu-ray, not the DVD. A recent example would be the clearance sales on poor selling titles like Panda 2 and Rise of the Planet of the Apes. They were priced nearly 1/2 off their original sale price a mere 2 weeks after going on sale, as initial sales were reportedly poor.

Again, the DVD titles have clearly shown to have the legs compared to Blu-ray. And "legs" in this case means behavior after week one and during its reign in the top 20 while sales are still strong. Comparing market share below top 20 is rather pointless anyway, as sales tend to be trivial. Besides, those of us who are not insiders are not privy to top 50 or top 100 data.
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Old 02-10-2012, 11:39 AM   #1467  
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My research on top 20 behavior shows that any abnormal spikes in marketshare most of the time tends to be due to a sale on the Blu-ray, not the DVD. A recent example would be the clearance sales on poor selling titles like Panda 2 and Rise of the Planet of the Apes. They were priced nearly 1/2 off their original sale price a mere 2 weeks after going on sale, as initial sales were reportedly poor.

Again, the DVD titles have clearly shown to have the legs compared to Blu-ray. And "legs" in this case means behavior after week one and during its reign in the top 20 while sales are still strong. Comparing market share below top 20 is rather pointless anyway, as sales tend to be trivial. Besides, those of us who are not insiders are not privy to top 50 or top 100 data.
Your research considered only titles on the Top 20 Sellers chart which biases the results to titles that have larger DVD volumes so they show up on those charts and to recent releases in the first eight weeks of release. The majority of other titles that do not reach the volumes to hit the Top 20 Sellers chart but we still have BD marketshare info from the BD Title share chart was not considered in your analysis.

But we have the Blu-ray unit marketshare off the BD Title Share chart that gives additional Blu-ray unit marketshares beyond what shows up on the Top 20 Sellers list which by definition has large DVD unit sales as few titles without larger magnitude DVD sales show up on the overall DVD+BD Top 20 sellers chart.

That's a future project for us to look at but you can see that many Blu-ray titles have larger BD unit marketshare over time long after release when you consider that data.
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Old 02-10-2012, 11:45 AM   #1468  
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Long term sales at volumes below the 30,000 of so units of the #20 title still can add up to substantial volumes and that's where I think and have been told where Blu-ray sales have more legs than DVD. But that's well beyond the normal 8 week period where DVD sales fall off a cliff and go into the great grey goo. Many evergreen Blu-ray titles sell for more volumes and have greater legs than DVD versions as the Blu-ray ownership base is still growing.
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Old 02-10-2012, 12:02 PM   #1469  
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Long term sales at volumes below the 30,000 of so units of the #20 title still can add up to substantial volumes and that's where I think and have been told where Blu-ray sales have more legs than DVD. But that's well beyond the normal 8 week period where DVD sales fall off a cliff and go into the great grey goo. Many evergreen Blu-ray titles sell for more volumes and have greater legs than DVD versions as the Blu-ray ownership base is still growing.

I am only interested in which format has legs after week one and have sales strong enough to be in the top 20. Weaker sales or titles should have similar characteristics so there's no point in worrying about titles that didn't make the cut.

Furthermore, after 8-12 weeks the ownership base is affected and the goal is to compare leg / share behavior under the same base. What's the point in saying that Blu-ray has more legs because it gains 6-7% market share every year on DVD? That's rather obvious isn't it?
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Old 02-10-2012, 12:47 PM   #1470  
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Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
Long term sales at volumes below the 30,000 of so units of the #20 title still can add up to substantial volumes and that's where I think and have been told where Blu-ray sales have more legs than DVD. But that's well beyond the normal 8 week period where DVD sales fall off a cliff and go into the great grey goo. Many evergreen Blu-ray titles sell for more volumes and have greater legs than DVD versions as the Blu-ray ownership base is still growing.
Wow!! Blu-ray titles have more legs than DVD! Blu-ray new release sales poised to blow past DVD in market share in 2012! Blu-ray catalog sales increasing as the tsunami in blu-ray player sales brings hoards of first time buyers!

Only problem with that is blu-ray sales growth went from 68% in 2010 to 19% in 2011, to 9% so far this year, even with all the givaways studios have been bundling in to revive sputtering growth.

Last edited by mikemorel; 02-10-2012 at 12:50 PM..
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