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Old 02-06-2012, 06:40 PM   #1396  
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Old 02-06-2012, 07:02 PM   #1397  
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At least this week the relationship between the DVD and BD YoYs make sense. There is 34% of YoY separating them, which is at least ballpark to normal (42%), but still favoring DVD, deviation-wise.

Not sure what to make of that 14.2% YoY for Blu-ray. It doesn't impress, considering BO is up $25 million for that week from last year. Plus the genre mix looks better for this year as well.

I'll have to check out the December carry over when I get a chance (using Nielsen First Alert of course).

Last edited by bruceames; 02-06-2012 at 07:07 PM..
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Old 02-06-2012, 07:07 PM   #1398  
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I think Kosty is just calling it like he sees it. He may come across as trying to silence dissenting opinion but that's not his intent at all. On the contrary, he welcomes it. But I agree he does use that word a lot, but it's more out of habit and certainly not meant as an insult any more than calling someone an optimist is. But as the same time I can see your guys point as well...
Thank you for the kind words.

Silencing dissent has never been my intention but I've never been shy in expressing my point of view or explaining why I disagree with others.

I also have tried to use the phrase of pessimistic as a more accurate and descriptive expression rather than something like "gloom and doomer" which I have stopped using a while ago in consideration of others point of view.

I certainly would not consider it name calling to say I was more optimistic or positive on Blu-ray's market position or less pessimistic or less negative than others. But I'll try and use the phrase less out of habit and as a routine except when I see it as the most accurate way to describe the differences on more specific things that general.

But when I get challenged on being paid to post or being a PR rep or shill or being a liar when its something I tried to honestly present as accurately and honestly as possible its hard not to be a bit defensive and react by using phrases back in response. But again I understand the above stated point of view and I'll try to be less routine with its use.
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Old 02-06-2012, 07:11 PM   #1399  
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Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
At least this week the relationship between the DVD and BD YoYs make sense. There is 34% of YoY separating them, which is at least ballpark to normal (42%), but still favoring DVD, deviation-wise.

Not sure what to make of that 14.2% YoY for Blu-ray. It doesn't impress, considering BO is up $25 million for that week from last year. Plus the genre mix looks better for this year as well.

I'll have to check out the December carry over when I get a chance (using Nielsen First Alert of course).
Total Box Office is up 11.19% so Blu-ray did better YoY than that metric. Paranormal Activity being DVD delayed helped a bit there.

The Top 20 unit share is also going to be high for Blu-ray.
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Old 02-06-2012, 07:32 PM   #1400  
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Total Box Office is up 11.19% so Blu-ray did better YoY than that metric. Paranormal Activity being DVD delayed helped a bit there.

The Top 20 unit share is also going to be high for Blu-ray.
I forgot about that. And even with that handicapping, the deviations from normal favor DVD. It would immediately come to mind that sales for that title were disappointing.

And now that I check, the title only got a 13% OD share and 25% BD share, and that with being the top box office title for the week at over $100 million?! Wow, that's amazingly low. Sales flat out stunk.

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/top...k-ended-012912

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/top...k-ended-012912

Last edited by bruceames; 02-06-2012 at 07:35 PM..
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Old 02-06-2012, 08:07 PM   #1401  
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I forgot about that. And even with that handicapping, the deviations from normal favor DVD. It would immediately come to mind that sales for that title were disappointing.

And now that I check, the title only got a 13% OD share and 25% BD share, and that with being the top box office title for the week at over $100 million?! Wow, that's amazingly low. Sales flat out stunk.

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/top...k-ended-012912

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/top...k-ended-012912
Or that Real Steel just did better in better genre match for home video sales and over achieved. Paranormal Activity 3 will have most of its DVD sales when its released on that format in a few weeks so its obviously going to have less OD sales now than if the DVD sku was concurrent.
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Old 02-06-2012, 08:21 PM   #1402  
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Or that Real Steel just did better in better genre match for home video sales and over achieved. Paranormal Activity 3 will have most of its DVD sales when its released on that format in a few weeks so its obviously going to have less OD sales now than if the DVD sku was concurrent.
Considering that sales are up only 14%, I'll vote for Paranormal Activity underachieving. If Real Steel overachieved by that much, then it would be up more than that.

But having the top box office title for the week do only 13% on OD? That's pathetic. It got beat by a comedy doing 1/3 the box office and by two other titles that have been out for weeks, both of which did well under $104 million box office. How can you say it possibly achieved?

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Old 02-06-2012, 08:41 PM   #1403  
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Considering that sales are up only 14%, I'll vote for Paranormal Activity underachieving. If Real Steel overachieved by that much, then it would be up more than that.

But having the top box office title for the week do only 13% on OD? That's pathetic. It got beat by a comedy doing 1/3 the box office and by two other titles that have been out for weeks, both of which did well under $104 million box office. How can you say it possibly achieved?
Of course its going to sell less overall OD units when the DVD is delayed. Nothing surprising about that at all.

Not all consumers that are DVD only users are going to buy the sku that counted as a Blu-ray sale so OD sales are going to be less for that title this week. That's hardly surprising.

Plus horror sells less than action as a home video genre I think so any conversion is probably going to be expected to be less. Nor is the style of Paranormal Activity as a series really screaming out as a high definition collectible item.

I really did not say that Paranormal Activity 3 over achieved here at all but I'm just commenting that its OD share is hardly unexpected based on the circumstances.
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Old 02-06-2012, 08:42 PM   #1404  
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Updated thru week ending 1/28/12
Table of Blu-ray sales (HMM and DEG)
numbers are in (revenue) millions.

Code:
2012 total   528.32    -7.5%     408.97   -11.4%     119.25    9.0%    22.6%     589.5   563.0										
Week Date      OD     OD YoY      DVD    DVD YoY       BD    BD YoY  BD Share  TBO2012 TBO2011										

4   1/28     131.95   -13.6%      98.40   -20.2%      33.55   14.2%    25.4%     226.3   201.2
3   1/21     129.39    -2.4%     103.53    -4.9%      25.86    8.9%    20.0%     112.7    60.7
2   1/14     128.65    -5.1%     100.16    -7.7%      28.49    5.6%    22.1%     143.4   116.2
1   1/7      138.33    -8.0%     106.88   -11.6%      31.35    7.0%    22.7%     157.7   134.3


2011 total  8604.20   -13.9%    6608.28   -20.3%    1995.92   17.7%    23.2%    9936.0 10820.9																			

Q4 total    3125.11   -12.4%    2280.75   -19.5%     844.36   15.1%    27.0%    3698.4  3932.2

52  12/31    174.13   -25.6%     130.29   -28.7%      43.84  -14.7%    25.2%      64.3    95.9
51  12/24    482.11   -13.1%     368.59   -16.9%     113.52    2.2%    23.5%     205.6   303.6
50  12/17    369.89   -23.4%     280.58   -26.8%      89.31  -10.1%    24.1%     360.7   635.3
49  12/10    322.48   -14.5%     243.85   -18.6%      78.63    1.5%    24.4%     624.8   535.6
48  12/3     229.49   -23.3%     173.97   -27.5%      55.52   -6.2%    24.2%     282.0   496.0
47  11/26    388.67   -12.4%     300.39   -16.5%      88.28    5.0%    22.7%     194.5   185.3
46  11/19    166.84   -14.3%     127.57   -18.0%      39.27    0.5%    23.5%      41.6   359.0
45  11/12    183.17     2.5%     128.95   -12.0%      54.22   68.3%    29.6%     422.9   251.3
44  11/5     167.53   -16.8%     117.59   -22.8%      49.94    2.0%    29.8%     335.6   414.9
43  10/29    147.15    11.2%      96.66   -11.3%      50.49  115.6%    33.6%     204.5   108.7
42  10/22    156.94     9.5%      95.94   -17.1%      61.00  120.8%    38.9%     370.0    56.0
41  10/15    152.92    -2.4%     106.50   -14.1%      46.42   42.2%    30.4%     343.3   233.0
40  10/8     183.79     9.3%     109.87    -9.4%      73.92   57.7%    40.2%     248.6   257.6

Q3 DEG      1742.79    -4.0%    1320.93   -14.7%     421.86   58.0%    24.2%
Q3 total    1667.09    -4.9%    1298.39   -13.9%     368.70   49.9%    22.1%    1806.3  1609.5										

39  10/1     152.58   -14.3%     109.97   -20.4%      42.61    7.1%    27.9%     352.1   382.7
38  9/24     153.60     5.0%     108.69   -12.5%      44.91  103.6%    29.2%     169.3   112.5
37  9/17     164.69    14.0%     107.37   -14.2%      57.32  197.2%    34.8%     190.8   165.2
36  9/10     128.84     0.0%     102.29   -10.5%      26.55   82.9%    20.6%     189.3    60.3
35  9/3      119.04    -9.5%     100.87   -13.7%      18.17   23.5%    15.3%      65.6    95.1
34  8/27     109.34   -13.1%      91.74   -16.6%      17.60   11.5%    16.1%      12.6    45.3
33  8/20     124.53    -4.4%     101.11   -12.8%      23.42   63.3%    18.8%     100.8    81.2
32  8/13     122.13    -1.8%      98.44    -9.5%      23.69   51.8%    19.4%     118.0   143.9
31  8/6      139.66     1.4%     111.78    -3.6%      27.88   27.9%    20.0%     189.8   133.5
30  7/30     108.78   -18.3%      89.06   -20.2%      19.72   -8.7%    18.1%      56.8   177.2
29  7/23     120.50    -1.9%      97.25    -9.4%      23.25   49.9%    19.3%      88.3    72.7
28  7/16     118.09    -4.8%      94.88   -13.5%      23.21   61.7%    19.7%     267.8    94.7
27  7/9      105.31   -16.7%      84.94   -22.7%      20.37   22.9%    19.3%       5.1    45.2										
		
Q2 DEG      1831      -15.0%    1434      -18.8%     397       9.4%    21.7%
Q2 total    1791.55   -12.2%    1402.94   -16.7%     388.61    9.1%    21.7%    2314.8  2422.0

26  7/2      127.11   -12.3%      96.32   -21.6%      30.79   39.4%    24.2%     102.3   181.4
25  6/25     123.25    -7.7%      98.18   -12.8%      25.07   20.1%    20.3%     205.4    85.8
24  6/18     149.89   -11.2%     114.68   -17.7%      35.21   19.5%    23.5%     208.2   142.8
23  6/11     130.81   -13.6%     103.23   -18.6%      27.58   12.3%    21.1%     305.0   152.6
22  6/4      118.16   -34.1%      96.17   -32.8%      21.99  -39.1%    18.6%      15.8   386.8
21  5/28     113.83   -16.6%      91.37   -22.9%      22.46   24.9%    19.7%     154.4    87.9
20  5/21     111.98   -15.2%      91.84   -18.9%      20.14    7.2%    18.0%      99.8   185.7
19  5/14     111.02   -23.6%      90.00   -26.8%      21.02   -6.2%    18.9%     155.6   113.6
18  5/7      122.05   -25.2%      99.74   -29.5%      22.31   -7.7%    18.3%     141.5   106.1
17  4/30     106.99   -40.6%      86.94   -39.6%      20.05  -44.5%    18.7%       0.0   120.5
16  4/23     217.30    -8.3%     171.47    -0.3%      45.83  -29.4%    21.1%     187.5   841.3
15  4/16     184.50    48.7%     134.40    24.8%      50.10  205.3%    27.2%     314.8     8.1
14  4/9      174.66    21.6%     128.60     5.9%      46.06  107.5%    26.5%     424.5     9.4
										
Q1 DEG      2068      -20.0%    1661      -25.0%     407      10.0%    19.7%		
Q1 total    2020.45   -23.2%    1626.20   -28.4%     394.25    9.4%    19.5%    2116.5  2857.2

13  4/2      192.11   -36.0%     144.16   -44.6%      47.95   20.1%    25.0%     300.9   461.1
12  3/26     135.54   -49.8%     110.21   -50.9%      25.33  -44.1%    18.7%     218.0   335.6
11  3/19     138.72   -46.5%     112.58   -49.6%      26.14  -27.1%    18.8%     154.2   534.3
10  3/12     146.96   -24.4%     116.11   -30.8%      30.85   16.5%    21.0%     177.0   247.2
9   3/5      174.59    -7.2%     132.93   -15.4%      41.66   34.1%    23.9%     112.3   258.8
8   2/26     160.96     4.5%     130.35    -2.5%      30.61   50.7%    19.0%     258.0    74.9
7   2/19     172.68    -8.1%     143.99   -12.7%      28.69   25.0%    16.6%      86.2    80.1
6   2/12     172.00   -19.4%     145.34   -23.1%      26.66    8.9%    15.5%     224.0   211.0
5   2/5      158.26   -16.7%     131.08   -20.8%      27.18   11.1%    17.2%      23.0   114.6
4   1/29     151.21   -14.6%     122.05   -20.9%      29.16   27.6%    19.3%     201.2   151.6
3   1/22     131.62   -16.3%     107.98   -21.0%      23.64   14.8%    18.0%      60.7    61.0
2   1/15     135.49   -17.3%     108.51   -23.9%      26.98   27.0%    19.9%     143.3   137.8
1   1/8      150.31   -14.1%     120.91   -19.5%      29.40   18.6%    19.6%     157.7   189.2

OD = optical disc (DVD + Blu-ray)
YoY = year over year percentage change
TBO = total box office
BD = Blu-ray
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Old 02-06-2012, 09:01 PM   #1405  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
Of course its going to sell less overall OD units when the DVD is delayed. Nothing surprising about that at all.

Not all consumers that are DVD only users are going to buy the sku that counted as a Blu-ray sale so OD sales are going to be less for that title this week. That's hardly surprising.

Plus horror sells less than action as a home video genre I think so any conversion is probably going to be expected to be less. Nor is the style of Paranormal Activity as a series really screaming out as a high definition collectible item.

I really did not say that Paranormal Activity 3 over achieved here at all but I'm just commenting that its OD share is hardly unexpected based on the circumstances.
What would be an unexpected OD share that's on the low side? Five percent? Come on Kosty, sales sucked even for Blu-ray. It was only 25% of Real Steel. Obviously the exclusive window didn't help BLu-ray one bit.
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Old 02-06-2012, 09:18 PM   #1406  
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What would be an unexpected OD share that's on the low side? Five percent? Come on Kosty, sales sucked even for Blu-ray. It was only 25% of Real Steel. Obviously the exclusive window didn't help BLu-ray one bit.
What do you think the expected sales would have been for that title without the DVD delay?

I seriously don't know except that it probably sold more units than the Saw sequel did last year on Blu-ray in a similar genre.

Real Steel had a 54% Blu-ray marketshare of an SFX action genre with similar box office strength. That's a much more favorable genre for Blu-ray at this stage which horror is still a lagging genre.

The exclusive window had to help to some degree and combo disc of Parnormal Activity 3 still sold at a premium to what a DVD sku would have sold at so any additional Blu-ray sales at all meant more profits. Plus the DVD only version comes on sale in a few weeks.

If we continue to see the Blu-ray+DVD combos more and more get released before the DVD skus then we will know if its making sense and is more profitable for the studios and retailers to do it that way or else they would stop doing it instead of doing it more and more.
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Old 02-06-2012, 09:28 PM   #1407  
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What do you think the expected sales would have been for that title without the DVD delay?

I seriously don't know except that it probably sold more units than the Saw sequel did last year on Blu-ray in a similar genre.

Real Steel had a 54% Blu-ray marketshare of an SFX action genre with similar box office strength. That's a much more favorable genre for Blu-ray at this stage which horror is still a lagging genre.

The exclusive window had to help to some degree and combo disc of Parnormal Activity 3 still sold at a premium to what a DVD sku would have sold at so any additional Blu-ray sales at all meant more profits. Plus the DVD only version comes on sale in a few weeks.

If we continue to see the Blu-ray+DVD combos more and more get released before the DVD skus then we will know if its making sense and is more profitable for the studios and retailers to do it that way or else they would stop doing it instead of doing it more and more.
PA2 had twice the box office as Saw 3D, so of course it's going to sell better.

It should have sold about 1/2 of Real Steel, even without considering the exclusive window. After all, it had $104 million BO compared to $85 for Real Steel. Horror is not the worst genre for Blu-ray.

I can see no evidence that the window helped whatsoever. But then that was the case with Pirates 4. I would have thought Paramount learn from Disney's mistakes.
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Old 02-06-2012, 09:36 PM   #1408  
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PA2 had twice the box office as Saw 3D, so of course it's going to sell better.

It should have sold about 1/2 of Real Steel, even without considering the exclusive window. After all, it had $104 million BO compared to $85 for Real Steel. Horror is not the worst genre for Blu-ray.

I can see no evidence that the window helped whatsoever. But then that was the case with Pirates 4. I would have thought Paramount learn from Disney's mistakes.
I don't see how any unbiased observer can see how two different genres, in two different periods both have failed with the BD exclusive window.

The BD exclusive window hurts OD sales, without much help to BD sales. Up until this week, OD itself was looking fairly good compared to last years record loss in revenue.

Trying to prop up Blu-ray at the overall expense of Home Video sell through is a losing proposition for the studios.
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Old 02-06-2012, 09:37 PM   #1409  
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Well if we continue to see more Blu-ray+DVD combos appearing before delayed DVD only skus then it would see to indicate that studios and retailers do not share your opinion of that being a mistake or else they would not continue doing it now would they?
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Old 02-06-2012, 09:40 PM   #1410  
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Yet another week where the box office does not truly indicate the appeal of the films

Quote:


Open Season 3 masks some of the 1/30/11 BO power. It was a DTV release. Also Girl Who Kicked the Hornets Nest had a limited release in theaters. Both combined for 130k units or the equivalent of a typical a $35-45M BO release.

Paranormal Activivty 2 BD did about 140k its first week in February 2011, 27% of total PA2 sales. So the series got a bump, most likely from box office and increased Blu-ray userbase. The exclusivity didn't appear to help anything.

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