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Optical (Blu-ray/DVD) and Digital (EST/UV) Sales Thread

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Old 02-05-2012, 07:12 PM   #1381  
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Originally Posted by GizmoDVD View Post
I'm all for Kosty posting here as I enjoy his thoughts and opinions, but if he's just going to attack all of us there is not much point in responding. He does not have the upper hand here like he did on that other forum where he was immune to any type of personal attack. Perhaps we've been a bit mean to him. Let's try and see where he's going with all of this. Maybe he's just misunderstood.

But calling us "pessimistic" etc. over and over again won't fly.
I agree. It is insulting to hear him call us that over and over.

Realist is more accurate for the term.

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Old 02-05-2012, 10:11 PM   #1382  
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It sure is hard to look at the massive drop in BD growth from 2010 to 2011, combined with a record drop in OD sell through and expect anyone to view the market with anything but concern at the best and disappointment at the other end.
He makes it sound like; "Nero fiddled while Rome burned." 2011 saw a $1.37 billion drop in OD sell thru revenue. That is massive. It was bigger then the drop in 2010. That affects all retailers that sell OD. Coupled with the 48% drop in yearly growth for BD, how can anyone possibly be optomistic about BD?
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Old 02-06-2012, 07:38 AM   #1383  
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Well, since that other forum lost about half of it's regular posters (I see some are back as sock puppet accounts - for like the third time LOL), this place has been jumping. This thread especially. So it appears most of that type of discussion will just get moved on to this forum anyway. Hope you join us!
True but, I've noticed though that the other forum has more readers. At peak hours many times more. That is fine but I like to post to strike up conversation about a subject which requires others to post. Over there very few do anymore. I've been a member here since 2008 and I seem to be Hanging out here more now.
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Old 02-06-2012, 11:00 AM   #1384  
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I think what Kosty means by pessimist is one's perspective and outlook on Blu-ray, and how one interprets the sales results. That is the meaning, rather than a low prediction. Obviously someone who is behind Blu-ray as much as Kosty is will tend to look at the bright side, and as such will tend to notice more easily those that have a dimmer view, as well as have a greater number of people who have a more pessimistic view than he does.

I admire that optimism, because for me it's hard to be optimistic in the face of the steep declines in growth that Blu-ray has seen. I think we all knew that Blu-ray would never reach DVD's peak, but I think most of us expected that it would be doing better than $2 billion sell-through after five years, even when accounting for lower box office power and the economy.

Hopefully the box office power will improve this year and Blu-ray will somehow slow down this decline in growth before it peaks, because there's not that much room left for it to slow down.

Regarding DVD, some may think it doesn't matter much to Blu-ray what DVD does, but on the contrary it's very critical. Blu-ray feeds off DVD, and a sharp decline in DVD like the 23% decline of last year should mean more people are turning to Blu-ray. But that doesn't seem to be happening, as most of them are just leaving OD altogether or just renting instead of buying. And as OD is the market that Blu-ray is a part of, it is damn important that Blu-ray does more than it has to stem the decline. It has failed in that sense, as sell-through declined over 16% last year, by far a new record.
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Old 02-06-2012, 11:06 AM   #1385  
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True but, I've noticed though that the other forum has more readers. At peak hours many times more. That is fine but I like to post to strike up conversation about a subject which requires others to post. Over there very few do anymore. I've been a member here since 2008 and I seem to be Hanging out here more now.
Glad to have you around Tower.
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Old 02-06-2012, 11:12 AM   #1386  
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I am for anyone and everyone posting here.

I just don't think anyone should have have carte blanche to constantly diminish a posters viewpoint or an entire dissenting opinion by labeling it as pessimistic.

And make no doubt. That is the intent and effect of Kosty's use of the term pessimistic. To dismiss dissenting opinion rather than engage it, and the valid (and sometimes accurate) predictions and viewpoints of dissenting opinion.


So yes, I agree.... calling someone or a particular viewpoint "pessimistic" over and over again here won't fly. Everyone gets heard here. And Kosty does not get to paint an entire viewpoint or any singles posters view as not valid.
I think Kosty is just calling it like he sees it. He may come across as trying to silence dissenting opinion but that's not his intent at all. On the contrary, he welcomes it. But I agree he does use that word a lot, but it's more out of habit and certainly not meant as an insult any more than calling someone an optimist is. But as the same time I can see your guys point as well...
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Old 02-06-2012, 11:13 AM   #1387  
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I think what Kosty means by pessimist is one's perspective and outlook on Blu-ray, and how one interprets the sales results. That is the meaning, rather than a low prediction. Obviously someone who is behind Blu-ray as much as Kosty is will tend to look at the bright side, and as such will tend to notice more easily those that have a dimmer view, as well as have a greater number of people who have a more pessimistic view than he does.
I have no problem with Kosty being an optimist. Or even stating he has an optimistic view.

I do think the way he uses the term "pessimist" is specifically to dismiss posters and/or ideas.

It is obvious in his "just another typical pessimistic view" form where he dismisses a point as a delusion based on the posters point of view before even attempting to address it.

That sort of broad dismissal of viewpoints is a constant attack, and unacceptable (IMO).


I am all for Kosty pre-facing his replies with "I am more optimistic than you". That is stating his views without dismissing another view as delusional.
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Old 02-06-2012, 11:16 AM   #1388  
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I think Kosty is just calling it like he sees it. He may come across as trying to silence dissenting opinion but that's not his intent at all. On the contrary, he welcomes it. But I agree he does use that word a lot, but it's more out of habit and certainly not meant as an insult any more than calling someone an optimist is. But as the same time I can see your guys point as well...
I disagree. And I will call Kosty out on it when I see his using the term as dismissive.

Again, if he wants to preface his comments stating he is more optimistic then fine. But not when he uses the term "pessimistic" as he does, which is a way to dismiss another view as delusional based on not being as optimistic as him.


Someone does not use a phrase like "just another typical pessimistic post from you" as anything other than a way to dismiss a view or poster.
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Old 02-06-2012, 11:20 AM   #1389  
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It sure is hard to look at the massive drop in BD growth from 2010 to 2011, combined with a record drop in OD sell through and expect anyone to view the market with anything but concern at the best and disappointment at the other end.
Exactly. The concern is real and no one is thinking "thank God for Blu-ray" because Blu-ray is not saving the market.
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Old 02-06-2012, 11:36 AM   #1390  
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I disagree. And I will call Kosty out on it when I see his using the term as dismissive.

Again, if he wants to preface his comments stating he is more optimistic then fine. But not when he uses the term "pessimistic" as he does, which is a way to dismiss another view as delusional based on not being as optimistic as him.


Someone does not use a phrase like "just another typical pessimistic post from you" as anything other than a way to dismiss a view or poster.

I agree that he overuses the word, and should try to use it more sparingly. Any overuse of words or phrases has a tendency to undermine the entire message of the post, as well as offend. Hopefully he'll take note of the input here.
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Old 02-06-2012, 11:39 AM   #1391  
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Exactly. The concern is real and no one is thinking "thank God for Blu-ray" because Blu-ray is not saving the market.
Yep.

It is the difference between being able to acknowledge Blu-ray growth, while understanding the market that it is in and how the market is being impacted the various pieces in play.
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Old 02-06-2012, 12:12 PM   #1392  
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Glad to have you around Tower.
Thanks Bruce! Glad to be here!
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Old 02-06-2012, 01:04 PM   #1393  
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But all of the industry or retailer people I talk to tend to be far more optimistic or at less pessimistic on Blu-ray than many of the more active posters here. For them Blu-ray is what it is, its a successful high margin product and they are less disappointed in its sales magnitude or growth or quality than some here always seem to be.
If industry and retailer people are pessimistic toward blu-ray, I highly doubt they would confide in you (or anyone) about it.

There is absolutely no upside in doing so.

Instead, they are handing you a sales pitch, for you to parrot.
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Old 02-06-2012, 05:42 PM   #1394  
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If industry and retailer people are pessimistic toward blu-ray, I highly doubt they would confide in you (or anyone) about it.

There is absolutely no upside in doing so.

Instead, they are handing you a sales pitch, for you to parrot.
I hardly parrot everything that is said to me and I certainly understand when I am being pitched something for propaganda purposes. It happens a lot less than it happened during the format war but I get sales pitches all the time.

I comment on things I honestly believe and most of the insider contact information I share is mostly factual data or answers to questions I ask rather than something that is being pitched to me.
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Old 02-06-2012, 06:21 PM   #1395  
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I agree that he overuses the word, and should try to use it more sparingly. Any overuse of words or phrases has a tendency to undermine the entire message of the post, as well as offend. Hopefully he'll take note of the input here.


Thanks for all of the comments above.

I always try to understand everyone's point of view even when I disagree with it and I'll try to use the words more pessimistic to be more descriptive in the future than routine. But I certainly do not think someone calling me more optimistic or less pessimistic than others here is name calling or inaccurate.

Here's a bit of my perspective on why I tend to be more optimistic and positive and less pessimistic and negative on Blu-ray than some others.

I certainly take a less pessimistic point of view of Blu-ray sales and growth for many reasons and I try to express why I hold that opinion to the best of my abilities.

First off, Blu-ray has long ago exceeded the expectations I and many others had of it during the format war. Virtually all of $100 M plus box office titles now are already in Blu-ray release and thousands more Blu-ray catalog movies will be released from the studio libraries. Virtually every major studio release now comes on Blu-ray and will be so in the foreseeable future with an ever increasing marketshare.

Blu-ray is now a successful mainstream consumer product category available at all major retailers and is now large enough and successful enough to be around for many years to come as a high quality home video format for new releases and classic movies.

Even if Blu-ray never reaches DVD's level of success its still going to contribute billions of dollars of profits to retailers and the studios for many years and its a high margin successor to DVD that will still preserve much of the sell through revenue stream for many years.

I do not focus as much as some of you on Blu-ray's inability to fully cover DVD's attrition as I strongly feel that Blu-ray is not expected to by itself make up for DVDs decline as its seen as part of the answer in conjunction with other new digital and cloud based revenue streams.

Blu-ray is still the largest new high margin revenue stream with the exception of EST which is still much smaller in magnitude and both Blu-ray and DVD revenues are still huge even with DVDs decline. Its a important part of studio and retailer revenues.

I also see Blu-ray as doing best in the very important new release segment which is the highest profit source of the home video marketplace. Its not covering DVDs total attrition but much of the DVD decline is in low price point low margin low price point catalog sales that the studios gain less profit from than new releases.

I don't ever expect Blu-ray to ever be what DVD was at its peak nor do retailers or industry people I talk with. But considering the alternative of what would have happened if Blu-ray was not available as a high definition next generation DVD format, where low margin cheap rentals or unlimited subscription streaming would be the same or even greater quality than standard definition DVD.

Many people I know understand that a sustainable and growing Blu-ray revenue stream and growing marketshare that transitioned much of the new release sell through market from DVD to Blu-ray is far better than if Blu-ray had never existed.

Even at levels still below DVD , billions of dollars of Blu-ray revenue and growing marketshare still means success as a consumer product for retailers and the studios. Not to mention availability as a high quality alternative to other cloud based options to consumers.

I think a lot of people here tend to always focus on the negative for Blu-ray instead of seeing it as a consumer success because of constant comparisons to DVD or with what I feel is an unrealistic expectation or standard that Blu-ray alone was meant to replace DVD.

Blu-ray exists in a new world of consumer options for entertainment and multiple yet smaller revenue streams for the studios in the second decade of the 21st century. Cheaper rental options from Netflix and Redbox and cloud based options like Hulu Vudu etc are here and cannot be undone.

That's a different world than when DVD was at its peak.

I see those things realistically and I and others realize that Blu-ray will never be like DVD so to see others constantly dwell on the fact that Blu-ray is failing to make up for DVD's attrition by itself seems unnecessarily negative or pessimistic to me as I feel that at least now now one expects Blu-ray to ever do that by itself.

Perhaps as the years have gone by and the market and economic and technological conditions have changed, the expectations for Blu-ray have evolved throughout the years, but Blu-ray is and can certainly be seen by many, including myself as a success and a high quality alternative that will be an important part of the studio and retailer home video market for many years to come.

Blu-ray is a high margin highly profitable consumer product category that continues to grow in revenues and marketshare and is at a level that is still huge by normal retail standards of a consumer good, even if its smaller than DVD. Most consumer products are low margin and are much smaller than DVD or even Blu-ray's current size. Blu-ray does not have to be at DVDs level to be considered to be a success.

Sure, I'm a lot more optimistic than some here and I tend to post more on the positive side of things. Others that are more pessimistic than me tend to cover the more negative side of things pretty well without my help. But neither viewpoint is complete by itself and its not healthy to focus on one side or the other all the time.

Throughout the years, I have never felt shy of pointing out when I disagree with others but I always have strived to explain my point of view and why I disagree to the best of my ability and I will continue to do so in the future.

Again thanks for the above comments and for consideration of my point of view.

Last edited by Kosty; 02-06-2012 at 06:46 PM..
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