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Optical (Blu-ray/DVD) and Digital (EST/UV) Sales Thread

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Old 02-04-2012, 10:37 PM   #1351  
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Originally Posted by TowerGrove View Post
Good points lee. I noticed Some of the upcoming BD players that I saw at CES will allow UV and connectivity to your home network server, etc. For downloaded titles. I also think there is a very sizable percentage of the population that has no interest or desire to stream video to their television.
Those with cable and On Demand* have been doing it for years. It's a free service included as part of your plan - at least it is with Comcast.

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*In Demand (capitalized as a trademark as iN DEMAND) is a provider of pay-per-view and subscription video-on-demand services, jointly owned by Comcast, Cox Communications, Time Warner Cable, and Bright House Networks.[1] It is the world's leading supplier of PPV and VOD programming.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IN_DEMAND
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Old 02-04-2012, 10:45 PM   #1352  
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I have not made any predictions or given any expectations or projections for 2012 at all except for saying that I think 7% or 8% growth is too pessimistic and me saying just above that I think that 40% growth is unlikely and probably too optimistic.
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Old 02-05-2012, 12:39 AM   #1353  
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Ignoring the dissertation in defense of your delusions..

You did characterize 25% YoY growth for Blu-ray for all of 2011 as pessimistic even after the single digit growth posted by Blu-ray in H1 2011.

You gave a bevy of excuses based on overly delusional interpretations of the obvious trends. Labeling as pessimistic those who pointed out that even with the specific release trends in H1, that single digit growth during that period indicated ~25% YoY growth. Indeed, it was I who stated at the beginning of 2011 that 40% seemed plausible for BD in 2011 but was not delusional enough to believe that after H1 we could expect more than ~ 25% growth on 2011. A view you characterized as pessimistic.

To call that prediction pessimistic when indeed it was optimistic is just another sign of your delusional view of BD growth.
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Old 02-05-2012, 12:39 AM   #1354  
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I have not made any predictions or given any expectations or projections for 2012 at all except for saying that I think 7% or 8% growth is too pessimistic and me saying just above that I think that 40% growth is unlikely and probably too optimistic.
From Bruce and corrected by me for the year 2000:

DVD sell-through YoY gains and total yearly sell-through revenue:

Year 3: 260%* (2000) $1.82 billion
Year 4: 131.3% $4.21 billion
Year 5: 53.2% $6.45 billion
Year 6: 46.4% $9.44 billion
Year 7: 31.9% $12.45 billion
Year 8: 8.5% $13.51 billion
Year 9: 2.8% (2006) $13.89 billion
Year 10: -3.7% $13.38 billion

* according to the DEG, 1999 DVD sell thru was $700 million.

http://www.dvdinformation.com/News/press/CES010506.htm

From Me:

2008 BD sell thru growth = 400%....$750M
2009 BD sell thru growth = 70%....$1.275B
2010 BD sell thru growth = 68%...$1.8B
2011 BD sell thru growth = 20%...$2.1B
2012 BD sell thru growth YTD= 7%...(?)

You have admitted that BD is not DVD when it comes to a level of success. So look at the data above. Every year growth goes down. It's just a question of how far down. I stand by my prediction of 10% growth for BD for 2011. It stays within historical trends and will IMO be the last year for growth for BD of any consequence.

Last edited by Lee Stewart; 02-05-2012 at 12:43 AM..
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Old 02-05-2012, 12:43 AM   #1355  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lee Stewart View Post
From Bruce:

DVD sell-through YoY gains and total yearly sell-through revenue:

Year 3: 89.6% (2000) $1.82 billion
Year 4: 131.3% $4.21 billion
Year 5: 53.2% $6.45 billion
Year 6: 46.4% $9.44 billion
Year 7: 31.9% $12.45 billion
Year 8: 8.5% $13.51 billion
Year 9: 2.8% (2006) $13.89 billion
Year 10: -3.7% $13.38 billion

From Me:

2008 BD sell thru growth = 400%....$750M
2009 BD sell thru growth = 70%....$1.275B
2010 BD sell thru growth = 68%...$1.8B
2011 BD sell thru growth = 20%...$2.1B
2012 BD sell thru growth YTD= 7%...(?)

You have admitted that BD is not DVD when it comes to a level of success. So look at the data above. Other then 2001 when DVD really exploded - every year growth goes down. It's just a question of how far down. I stand by my prediction of 10% growth for BD for 2011. It stays within historical trends and will IMO be the last year for growth for BD of any consequence.
I was thinking between 12%-16% for 2012, but am willing to modify that view up or down after H1 performance. Just like I modified it down to ~25% from 40% after BD's performance in H1. A modification that was labeled as pessimistic. I am not as delusional as some and will generally alter my predictions if new and clear trends are established.
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Old 02-05-2012, 10:23 AM   #1356  
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I've posted here since 2007 and I will continue to do so.
Oh ok. Just because of your comments towards HDF on that other forum you made toward your buddies.

Must be scary when this sub forum is getting more views/posts then the other, right? Guess plenty of people are tiring of your schtick.
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Old 02-05-2012, 10:39 AM   #1357  
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Here's a classic from February 2011:
Quote:
Explain again how consistent year to year growth on a weekly basis and billions of dollars of projected revenue and growing unit and revenue marketshare is bad? Whats your strawman or how far have you moved your gloom and doom stir the pot golpost this week?

Since you say the same thing each week and do not even bother discussing the details of each weeks releases or specifics, why do you even bother?
I guess "billions" really means "almost two".

Another gem:
Quote:
Traditionally for retailers, when a successor product starts to consistently gains 30% and growing marketshare, thats a tipping point where the new product inventory starts to displace the old items on display at brick and mortar stores. In the case of DVD and Blu-ray, we are already there for new releases and for comparable matching titles for older releases, when a Blu-ray version is available.
Blu-ray did not grow 30% last year. Guess that "tipping point" won't happen.

Last edited by GizmoDVD; 02-05-2012 at 10:42 AM..
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Old 02-05-2012, 11:19 AM   #1358  
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Originally Posted by GizmoDVD View Post
Oh ok. Just because of your comments towards HDF on that other forum you made toward your buddies.

Must be scary when this sub forum is getting more views/posts then the other, right? Guess plenty of people are tiring of your schtick.
Like people have not tired of your same old BS throughout the years.

At least I keep track of the data and make an attempt to support my point of view with some sort of evidence.

I'm just trying to add another point of view to the conversation here when I can so the amount of group think and pessimistic back slapping has some perspective.

Most of the posts and views here are the same people talking to themselves anyway.
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Old 02-05-2012, 11:23 AM   #1359  
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Originally Posted by Kosty
Explain again how consistent year to year growth on a weekly basis and billions of dollars of projected revenue and growing unit and revenue marketshare is bad? Whats your strawman or how far have you moved your gloom and doom stir the pot golpost this week?

Since you say the same thing each week and do not even bother discussing the details of each weeks releases or specifics, why do you even bother?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty
Traditionally for retailers, when a successor product starts to consistently gains 30% and growing marketshare, thats a tipping point where the new product inventory starts to displace the old items on display at brick and mortar stores. In the case of DVD and Blu-ray, we are already there for new releases and for comparable matching titles for older releases, when a Blu-ray version is available.
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Originally Posted by GizmoDVD View Post
Here's a classic from February 2011:


I guess "billions" really means "almost two".

Another gem:


Blu-ray did not grow 30% last year. Guess that "tipping point" won't happen.
In plain English I said marketshare, I did not say growth rate.

Again you just show once again your ignorance of basic retail and marketing concepts involved in consumer product management. Its a commonly accepted benchmark that once a successor product reaches 30% of sales or about half of that of the legacy product it is replacing, that a tipping point is generally reached where retailers accelerate the displacement of the older products on displace with the new generation successor product.

Consumers respond by buying more of the new stuff and network effects of a larger market size occur where the newer stuff is more readily available and a virtuous upward circle occurs for the new product.

I was talking about Blu-ray approaching or reaching that 30% threshold in revenues or units sold marketshare. Blu-ray is already over that 30% marketshare point for new release units and revenues and over that point for total OD revenues and will reach that point for total units sold in the near future.

I was not talking about YoY growth as Blu-ray has exceeded that for many years in the past and YoY growth as a ratio percentage is not related one to one with market size or magnitude of the market growth.

I was there referring to consistent Blu-ray unit market shares of new releases that were routinely over 30% of units sold. Many Blu-ray favorable genre titles now routinely sell over 50% of their units on Blu-ray and generate more revenue than the DVD sku. Overall Blu-ray revenues as well are approaching that 30% marketshare tipping point as well.

Billions does mean two billion for the past year and over five billion for the cumulative total for Blu-ray sell through.

Last edited by Kosty; 02-05-2012 at 11:38 AM..
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Old 02-05-2012, 11:35 AM   #1360  
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Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
Again you just show once again your ignorance of basic retail and marketing concepts involved in consumer product management. Its a commonly accepted benchmark that once a successor product reaches 30% of sales or about half of that of the legacy product it is replacing, that a tipping point is generally reached where retailers accelerate the displacement of the older products on displace with the new generation successor product. Consumers respond by buying more of the new stuff and network effects of a larger market size occur where the newer stuff is more readily available and a virtuous upward circle occurs for the new product.
Blu-ray has not reached 30% of DVD sales (even as DVD has fallen billions each year).

You really shouldn't bring up ignorance of basic retail and marketing concepts as it was you who claimed no Blu-ray was EVER RETURNED from a retailer for credit. We pretty much proved that to wrong over and over again which meant you were either making shit up or had/have some of the worst retail contacts in history.

Quote:
I was talking about Blu-ray approaching or reaching that 30% threshold in revenues or units sold marketshare. Blu-ray is already over that 30% marketshare point for new release units and revenues and over that point for total OD revenues and will reach that point for total units sold in the near future.
Oh, so you cherry pick the 'new releases' but ignore all the other categories where retailers actually make their money, like catalog. Little profit is made in New Releases which is already being sold for a hefty discount.

Quote:
I was not talking about YoY growth as Blu-ray has exceeded that for many years in the past and YoY growth as a ratio percentage is not related one to one with market size or magnitude of the market growth.

I was there referring to consistent Blu-ray unit market shares of new releases that were routinely over 30% of units sold. Many Blu-ray favorable genre titles now routinely sell over 50% of their units on Blu-ray and generate more revenue than the DVD sku.

Billions does mean two billion for the past year and over five billion for the cumulative total for Blu-ray sell through.
LOL. Billions now means 2 billion? Oh man. Now it's for it's entire lifespan? Wow. Keep moving that goalpost. You might just be able to call Blu-ray a "success" in 2015 which it makes enough money in it's entire lifespan as DVD did in all of 2002!
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Old 02-05-2012, 11:37 AM   #1361  
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Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
Like people have not tired of your same old BS throughout the years.

At least I keep track of the data and make an attempt to support my point of view with some sort of evidence.

I'm just trying to add another point of view to the conversation here when I can so the amount of group think and pessimistic back slapping has some perspective.

Most of the posts and views here are the same people talking to themselves anyway.
"Group think" and "pessimistic back slapping"?

Did you just attack this entire forum because some actively disagree with your delusional viewpoints?

From what I have seen, you have a negative view of any forum where you cannot effectively silence dissent. I know of no dissenting opinion that has ever been silenced here. That makes it the most open forum that I have participated it.

Your trying to point it as as closed and "group think" compared to other forums where you have effectively silenced dissenting opinion is absolutely delusional.
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Old 02-05-2012, 11:41 AM   #1362  
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Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
Like people have not tired of your same old BS throughout the years.

At least I keep track of the data and make an attempt to support my point of view with some sort of evidence.

I'm just trying to add another point of view to the conversation here when I can so the amount of group think and pessimistic back slapping has some perspective.

Most of the posts and views here are the same people talking to themselves anyway.
Your "evidence" is typically yourself as you refuse to post any information which can be verified. Its the "I'm right because I have contacts" junk. Your "Insider" knowledge has proven to be wrong year after year, so you'll have to excuse some of us who don't take you seriously. You can keep track of data all you want - does not mean your opinions are always going to be correct.

Please, the "pessimistics" were right in 2011 while you and your buddies were so far off the mark that if we were playing a game of golf, we'd hit a Birdy and you'd be, well, stuck in a sand trap swinging away.
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Old 02-05-2012, 11:43 AM   #1363  
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I certainly do not have a negative view of this forum where I have been a active poster since 2007 nor I have I been banned by any site I have participated in throughout the years.

I appreciate all perspectives even when they disagree with my own and when I disagree with comments made I feel free to express my point of view to the best of my abilities.
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Old 02-05-2012, 11:45 AM   #1364  
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"Group think" and "pessimistic back slapping"?

Did you just attack this entire forum because some actively disagree with your delusional viewpoints?

From what I have seen, you have a negative view of any forum where you cannot effectively silence dissent. I know of no dissenting opinion that has ever been silenced here. That makes it the most open forum that I have participated it.

Your trying to point it as as closed and "group think" compared to other forums where you have effectively silenced dissenting opinion is absolutely delusional.
I'm all for Kosty posting here as I enjoy his thoughts and opinions, but if he's just going to attack all of us there is not much point in responding. He does not have the upper hand here like he did on that other forum where he was immune to any type of personal attack. Perhaps we've been a bit mean to him. Let's try and see where he's going with all of this. Maybe he's just misunderstood.

But calling us "pessimistic" etc. over and over again won't fly.
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Old 02-05-2012, 11:46 AM   #1365  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
I certainly do not have a negative view of this forum where I have been a active poster since 2007 nor I have I been banned by any site I have participated in throughout the years.

I appreciate all perspectives even when they disagree with my own and when I disagree with comments made I feel free to express my point of view to the best of my abilities.
Don't worry - you'll never get banned on that other forum because doing so would likely cause them the loss of thousands of views which turn into ad revenue etc.
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