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Optical (Blu-ray/DVD) and Digital (EST/UV) Sales Thread

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Old 02-04-2012, 06:17 PM   #1336  
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Windowing - making EST available before OD.
At a reasonable price. If it's too expensive, few will bite.
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Old 02-04-2012, 06:51 PM   #1337  
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They were dumping product because they had too much stock of procuct that was not selling well. That is what you do when you overbought and mis-guaged the market. DUH!!!
Product mix and a variety of price points for a consumer product category had nothing to do with it at all then. Surprisingly you expect retailers not to use pricing strategies or routine inventory or sales procedures for a major mass market product. Seems rather pessimistic now doesn't it?

Lower prices on some skus does not always mean over inventory. It certainly does on occasion but retailers have long developed techniques to manage inventory of successful mass market mainstream products like Blu-ray.
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Old 02-04-2012, 06:54 PM   #1338  
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Woah, your still posting here? After your recent comments on that other forum that HDF was such a bad place to post, I'm surprised to see you post here! What happened?

Blu-ray has dropped like a rock. Last year was one of the worst growth cycles in it's history!
I've posted here since 2007 and I will continue to do so.
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Old 02-04-2012, 07:03 PM   #1339  
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At a reasonable price. If it's too expensive, few will bite.
The buying of movies is an impulse buy. The impulse to buy may be effected by the movie's availability.
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Old 02-04-2012, 07:18 PM   #1340  
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He won't.
You called it.
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Old 02-04-2012, 07:20 PM   #1341  
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As you can see from your chart, the difference in margin from BD to EST is almost the same as it is from DVD to BD. So if you want to say that the difference is "slight", then you have to say the same about the increased margin from BD versus DVD which you never do.
And that chart is gross margin from wholesaler to retail.

It does not factor in the packaging, mastering, shipping and destruction of unused discs. Or the wholesaler markup.
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Old 02-04-2012, 07:31 PM   #1342  
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And that chart is gross margin from wholesaler to retail.
It says; "estimated studio receipts per US transaction" which means how much a studio receives from either selling to a wholesaler or directly to the retailer (OD). The wholesaler then does a markup when selling to their retailer and the retailer does a markup (if they choose to) selling to consumers.

Studios also sell directly to rentailers which probably isn't covered by that chart.




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It does not factor in the packaging, mastering, shipping and destruction of unused discs. Or the wholesaler markup.
Not to be picky, but mastering really shouldn't be included. They have to create video masters no matter what. But you didn't include replication - the process that creates the ODs

Last edited by Lee Stewart; 02-04-2012 at 07:42 PM..
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Old 02-04-2012, 07:42 PM   #1343  
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It says; "estimated studio receipts per US transaction" which means how much a studio receives from either selling to a wholesaler or directly to the retailer. The wholesaler then does a markup when selling to their retailer and the retailer does a markup (if they choose to) selling to consumers.

Studios also sell directly to rentailers which probably isn't covered by that chart.



Not to be picky, but mastering really shouldn't be included. They have to create masters no matter what. But you didn't include replication - the process that creates the ODs
Correct. And mastering for digital may be more expensive if different encodes are required. Although this may be handled directly by the provider who just gets a single standard digital format that they then encode based on their service (I think I recall reading that at one point).


And yes, replication of discs (along with packaging, etc) is a variable cost that increases based on the number of units sent out.
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Old 02-04-2012, 07:58 PM   #1344  
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Correct. And mastering for digital may be more expensive if different encodes are required. Although this may be handled directly by the provider who just gets a single standard digital format that they then encode based on their service (I think I recall reading that at one point).
Studios create numerous masters for their clients. There will be one "true master" that is created from either the 35mm film elements and or the Digital Intermediate. This is done with no compression codecs. It is an OAR, 10/12bit LOG uncompressed file that takes up massive amounts of storage.

Then additional masters are created using the above depending on who is using it. For Digital Cinema, they use Motion JPEG 2000 as the compression codec. For BD, AVC or VC-1. For DVD, MPEG2 and etc. For TV, they will alter the aspect ratio from 2.40 to 1.85 if 2.40 was the OAR and that is how it is to be shown in HD or even 1.33 if shown in SD (P & S).

Some studios do it inhouse while others contract out.

Last edited by Lee Stewart; 02-04-2012 at 08:12 PM..
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Old 02-04-2012, 09:56 PM   #1345  
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Studios create numerous masters for their clients. There will be one "true master" that is created from either the 35mm film elements and or the Digital Intermediate. This is done with no compression codecs. It is an OAR, 10/12bit LOG uncompressed file that takes up massive amounts of storage.

Then additional masters are created using the above depending on who is using it. For Digital Cinema, they use Motion JPEG 2000 as the compression codec. For BD, AVC or VC-1. For DVD, MPEG2 and etc. For TV, they will alter the aspect ratio from 2.40 to 1.85 if 2.40 was the OAR and that is how it is to be shown in HD or even 1.33 if shown in SD (P & S).

Some studios do it inhouse while others contract out.
Thanks for the info Lee!
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Old 02-04-2012, 10:03 PM   #1346  
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With over 30 years of consumers buying their movies on physical media, IMO, there will be consumer resistance to buying EST simply because it requires the consumer to attach their PC to their TV for the best presentation.

Such is not the case for streaming - only requires a BD player.



Windowing - making EST available before OD.

Good points lee. I noticed Some of the upcoming BD players that I saw at CES will allow UV and connectivity to your home network server, etc. For downloaded titles. I also think there is a very sizable percentage of the population that has no interest or desire to stream video to their television.
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Old 02-04-2012, 10:06 PM   #1347  
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Product mix and a variety of price points for a consumer product category had nothing to do with it at all then. Surprisingly you expect retailers not to use pricing strategies or routine inventory or sales procedures for a major mass market product. Seems rather pessimistic now doesn't it?

Lower prices on some skus does not always mean over inventory. It certainly does on occasion but retailers have long developed techniques to manage inventory of successful mass market mainstream products like Blu-ray.
True Kosty and especially around the Holiday selling Season.
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Old 02-04-2012, 10:09 PM   #1348  
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Studios create numerous masters for their clients. There will be one "true master" that is created from either the 35mm film elements and or the Digital Intermediate. This is done with no compression codecs. It is an OAR, 10/12bit LOG uncompressed file that takes up massive amounts of storage.

Then additional masters are created using the above depending on who is using it. For Digital Cinema, they use Motion JPEG 2000 as the compression codec. For BD, AVC or VC-1. For DVD, MPEG2 and etc. For TV, they will alter the aspect ratio from 2.40 to 1.85 if 2.40 was the OAR and that is how it is to be shown in HD or even 1.33 if shown in SD (P & S).

Some studios do it inhouse while others contract out.
I guess UV CFF would fall into this as well being a common standard format.
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Old 02-04-2012, 10:14 PM   #1349  
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Its hardly an "attack" to note that someone is more pessimistic than others.
It is hardly an attack to call someone delusional for calling those who have been accurate, pessimistic.

If telling someone that predicting sub 25% BD growth for the year after H1 comes in at singles digits is "pessimistic", then I guess it is not an attack to call out someone looking for 40% growth by the end of the year (after a single digit H1) as delusional.


I believe delusional is an appropriate term and will make heavy use of it when someone is making delusion-ally high predictions and/or is having delusions with making obtuse excuses for actual performance within a given period.

Delusional. The peer to pessimistic.
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Old 02-04-2012, 10:37 PM   #1350  
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It is hardly an attack to call someone delusional for calling those who have been accurate, pessimistic.

If telling someone that predicting sub 25% BD growth for the year after H1 comes in at singles digits is "pessimistic", then I guess it is not an attack to call out someone looking for 40% growth by the end of the year (after a single digit H1) as delusional.


I believe delusional is an appropriate term and will make heavy use of it when someone is making delusion-ally high predictions and/or is having delusions with making obtuse excuses for actual performance within a given period.

Delusional. The peer to pessimistic.
Err... I never said I expect 40% growth YoY for 2012 over 2011. You are mistaking me saying that was around my expectations for 2011 over 2010 after we say 58% YoY growth for 2010 over 2009, not for the current year.

Nor did I think that 40% EOY growth was the most probable outcome after the 10% growth of 1Q and 2Q 2011. Maybe possible but still not the most probable outcome.

If I understand his claim it was that he predicted 25% growth at the beginning of the year, not after the 1H 2011 results were in at 10%. 20% to 30% was my probably range of the EOY stats in that metric at the half way mark of last year so I would have considered a 25% projection by the end of the year to be entirely reasonable and not pessimistic at all if it was done in July of 2011.

My expectations to where the end of year stats would end up were certainly changed by the mid point of last year after we saw the 1H 2011 YoY results and the impact of Avatar and Twilight and the over $800 M TBO disparity we saw by the middle of the year. I thought that those that said 10% or less was going to be the EOY 2010 YoY revenue gains were being pessimistic at the half way point, 20% was certainly more realistic, lower than my expectations a bit but hardly that far from my thoughts at the half way point. I thought that 25% was most likely but the poor late Nov and Dec 2011 release strength probably was the killer for that scenario. The HMM YoY stats did crest at 26.71% after 11/13/11 but then fell back to just over 18% by the end of the year. The DEG ended up a few points higher than that.

I think I clearly stated that I thought 40% was going to be the highest boundary for EOY 2012 and would be the highest possible benchmark it was possible to reach after the 4Q 2011 period. I hardly stated that was my prediction expectation or projection as far as I can remember. I may have considered it plausible if the second half of 4Q 2011 was as strong as the first half but that was the higher limits of what I saw as even possible not that I saw it as likely.

I really have no expectations this year and have not stated anything there except I think there is a strong possibility the YoY revenue growth rate would be over 7% that someone stated which I think is overly pessimistic.

I doubt the strength of releases in 2012 home video titles will be that much down from 2011 and I think that would be required to have so low a level of YoY revenue growth as we saw the strength of new releases was a big factor in Blu-ray's 2011 growth.

I was referring to my general thoughts of 40% being a reasonable YoY growth at the start of 2011 before we saw the 1Q and 2Q release strength TBO disparity. That was not referring to 2012 at all.

My mention there was that his 25% growth rate expectation was not much different from my 40% growth rate expectation at the start of the previous year of 2011.

I think that 40% growth rate for 2012 for Blu-ray revenues would be very optimistic and I am not predicting that at all. I suppose its within the realm of possibility for some part of the year, after all 3Q 2011 was up 58% YoY but I agree that 40% growth rate for Blu-ray revenues 2011 to 2012 would be very unexpected.

40% to me would be a very unlikely scenario for 2012 YoY growth for the entire year for Blu-ray revenues. I'm not sure I would characterize someone predicting that to be delusional, if they could make some sort of logical case for it, but I do not see that happening either this year.

I'd be really surprised to see 40% growth under any scenario I would see possible in 2012 over 2011. That would certainly be well above my expectations at this point in time.

Last edited by Kosty; 02-04-2012 at 11:00 PM..
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