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Optical (Blu-ray/DVD) and Digital (EST/UV) Sales Thread

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Old 11-08-2011, 06:01 PM   #121  
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Originally Posted by PSound View Post
Looks like I was $10 million too high!

Well I would have been off by more than that if I had guessed. I was thinking around $65-70 million.

Pretty low considering week 2 of POTC4, Jurassic Park and the high expectations of Captain America. Jurassic Park looks like it did less than 1/3 of Star Wars.
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Old 11-08-2011, 07:10 PM   #122  
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You got some smart kids. Those are nice to have. I never had any of my own but have 3 of my wife's kids living with me. I can't complain.
That's cool. At least you can be there for your wife's kids. I am proud. Daughter was class president 4 years in a row. Both great well rounded good hearted kids. Couldn't ask for anything more. Some of thier favorite movies are.

Meatballs
My Bodyguard
Poseidon Adventure
Indiana Jones all but prefer 1 and 2
16 candles
Breakfast Club
Pretty in pink
Red Dawn
Weird Science

They have said " they just don't make very many good movies anymore" haha I have to agree! There are exceptions of course.
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Old 11-08-2011, 09:35 PM   #123  
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That's cool. At least you can be there for your wife's kids. I am proud. Daughter was class president 4 years in a row. Both great well rounded good hearted kids. Couldn't ask for anything more. Some of thier favorite movies are.

Meatballs
My Bodyguard
Poseidon Adventure
Indiana Jones all but prefer 1 and 2
16 candles
Breakfast Club
Pretty in pink
Red Dawn
Weird Science

They have said " they just don't make very many good movies anymore" haha I have to agree! There are exceptions of course.
I have to agree with your kids. Most of the good new movies are not made in the U.S. anymore. What I find tiresome about Hollywood movies is that they keep increasing the level of exaggeration in action/adventure movies. It's like watching a Tex Avery cartoon anymore, except it's not funny
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Old 11-08-2011, 09:47 PM   #124  
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Updated thru week ending 10/29/11
Table of Blu-ray sales (HMM and DEG)
numbers are in (revenue) millions.

Code:
2011 total  6119.89   -12.9%     4736.5   -20.1%    1383.39   26.6%    22.6%    7404.0  7544.0										
Week Date      OD     OD YoY      DVD    DVD YoY       BD    BD YoY  BD Share  TBO2011 TBO2010										

Q4 total     640.80     6.1%     408.97   -13.0%     231.83   77.6%    36.0%    1166.4   655.3

43  10/22    147.15    11.2%      96.66   -11.3%      50.49  115.6%    33.6%     204.5   108.7
42  10/22    156.94     9.5%      95.94   -17.1%      61.00  120.8%    38.9%     370.0    56.0
41  10/15    152.92    -2.4%     106.50   -14.1%      46.42   42.2%    30.4%     343.3   233.0
40  10/8     183.79     9.3%     109.87    -9.4%      73.92   57.7%    40.2%     248.6   257.6

Q3 DEG      1742.79    -4.0%    1320.93   -14.7%     421.86   58.0%    24.2%
Q3 total    1667.09    -4.9%    1298.39   -13.9%     368.70   49.9%    22.1%    1806.3  1609.5										

39  10/1     152.58   -14.3%     109.97   -20.4%      42.61    7.1%    27.9%     352.1   382.7
38  9/24     153.60     5.0%     108.69   -12.5%      44.91  103.6%    29.2%     169.3   112.5
37  9/17     164.69    14.0%     107.37   -14.2%      57.32  197.2%    34.8%     190.8   165.2
36  9/10     128.84     0.0%     102.29   -10.5%      26.55   82.9%    20.6%     189.3    60.3
35  9/3      119.04    -9.5%     100.87   -13.7%      18.17   23.5%    15.3%      65.6    95.1
34  8/27     109.34   -13.1%      91.74   -16.6%      17.60   11.5%    16.1%      12.6    45.3
33  8/20     124.53    -4.4%     101.11   -12.8%      23.42   63.3%    18.8%     100.8    81.2
32  8/13     122.13    -1.8%      98.44    -9.5%      23.69   51.8%    19.4%     118.0   143.9
31  8/6      139.66     1.4%     111.78    -3.6%      27.88   27.9%    20.0%     189.8   133.5
30  7/30     108.78   -18.3%      89.06   -20.2%      19.72   -8.7%    18.1%      56.8   177.2
29  7/23     120.50    -1.9%      97.25    -9.4%      23.25   49.9%    19.3%      88.3    72.7
28  7/16     118.09    -4.8%      94.88   -13.5%      23.21   61.7%    19.7%     267.8    94.7
27  7/9      105.31   -16.7%      84.94   -22.7%      20.37   22.9%    19.3%       5.1    45.2										
		
Q2 DEG      1831      -15.0%    1434      -18.8%     397       9.4%    21.7%
Q2 total    1791.55   -12.2%    1402.94   -16.7%     388.61    9.1%    21.7%    2314.8  2422.0

26  7/2      127.11   -12.3%      96.32   -21.6%      30.79   39.4%    24.2%     102.3   181.4
25  6/25     123.25    -7.7%      98.18   -12.8%      25.07   20.1%    20.3%     205.4    85.8
24  6/18     149.89   -11.2%     114.68   -17.7%      35.21   19.5%    23.5%     208.2   142.8
23  6/11     130.81   -13.6%     103.23   -18.6%      27.58   12.3%    21.1%     305.0   152.6
22  6/4      118.16   -34.1%      96.17   -32.8%      21.99  -39.1%    18.6%      15.8   386.8
21  5/28     113.83   -16.6%      91.37   -22.9%      22.46   24.9%    19.7%     154.4    87.9
20  5/21     111.98   -15.2%      91.84   -18.9%      20.14    7.2%    18.0%      99.8   185.7
19  5/14     111.02   -23.6%      90.00   -26.8%      21.02   -6.2%    18.9%     155.6   113.6
18  5/7      122.05   -25.2%      99.74   -29.5%      22.31   -7.7%    18.3%     141.5   106.1
17  4/30     106.99   -40.6%      86.94   -39.6%      20.05  -44.5%    18.7%       0.0   120.5
16  4/23     217.30    -8.3%     171.47    -0.3%      45.83  -29.4%    21.1%     187.5   841.3
15  4/16     184.50    48.7%     134.40    24.8%      50.10  205.3%    27.2%     314.8     8.1
14  4/9      174.66    21.6%     128.60     5.9%      46.06  107.5%    26.5%     424.5     9.4
										
Q1 DEG      2068      -20.0%    1661      -25.0%     407      10.0%    19.7%		
Q1 total    2020.45   -23.2%    1626.20   -28.4%     394.25    9.4%    19.5%    2116.5  2857.2

13  4/2      192.11   -36.0%     144.16   -44.6%      47.95   20.1%    25.0%     300.9   461.1
12  3/26     135.54   -49.8%     110.21   -50.9%      25.33  -44.1%    18.7%     218.0   335.6
11  3/19     138.72   -46.5%     112.58   -49.6%      26.14  -27.1%    18.8%     154.2   534.3
10  3/12     146.96   -24.4%     116.11   -30.8%      30.85   16.5%    21.0%     177.0   247.2
9   3/5      174.59    -7.2%     132.93   -15.4%      41.66   34.1%    23.9%     112.3   258.8
8   2/26     160.96     4.5%     130.35    -2.5%      30.61   50.7%    19.0%     258.0    74.9
7   2/19     172.68    -8.1%     143.99   -12.7%      28.69   25.0%    16.6%      86.2    80.1
6   2/12     172.00   -19.4%     145.34   -23.1%      26.66    8.9%    15.5%     224.0   211.0
5   2/5      158.26   -16.7%     131.08   -20.8%      27.18   11.1%    17.2%      23.0   114.6
4   1/29     151.21   -14.6%     122.05   -20.9%      29.16   27.6%    19.3%     201.2   151.6
3   1/22     131.62   -16.3%     107.98   -21.0%      23.64   14.8%    18.0%      60.7    61.0
2   1/15     135.49   -17.3%     108.51   -23.9%      26.98   27.0%    19.9%     143.3   137.8
1   1/8      150.31   -14.1%     120.91   -19.5%      29.40   18.6%    19.6%     157.7   189.2

OD = optical disc (DVD + Blu-ray)
YoY = year over year percentage change
TBO = total box office
BD = Blu-ray

Last edited by bruceames; 11-08-2011 at 10:23 PM..
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Old 11-08-2011, 09:53 PM   #125  
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With TBO getting close to flat YoY, BD is up 26.6%.

That is well below the 40% I was thinking at the beginning of the year, and my guess is it might end the year at right around 25%.
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Old 11-08-2011, 10:05 PM   #126  
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Quote:
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With TBO getting close to flat YoY, BD is up 26.6%.

That is well below the 40% I was thinking at the beginning of the year, and my guess is it might end the year at right around 25%.
Sounds about right. The last 9 weeks TBO will be minus $700 million or so, which should result in much more modest growth. I'm equally interested in how DVD responds to the upcoming drought. OD has been buoyed the last few months by very high YoY box office, so when that goes the other way then so might OD's numbers in equal proportion.
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Old 11-08-2011, 10:08 PM   #127  
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Sounds about right. The last 9 weeks TBO will be minus $700 million or so, which should result in much more modest growth. I'm equally interested in how DVD responds to the upcoming drought. OD has been buoyed the last few months by very high YoY box office, so when that goes the other way then so might OD's numbers in equal proportion.
What was the YOY BO change for todays weekly numbers?
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Old 11-08-2011, 10:12 PM   #128  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
HMM numbers are up for week ending 10/29:

Blu-ray: $50.49M, +115.6%, 34% share
DVD: $99.66M, -11.6%

OD: $147.15M, +11.5%


Another up week for OD, but then it should be up with a huge YoY box office differential.

Blu-ray looks to be about right, but if anything a little under projections.

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/
There was a typo on the web chart for DVD revenues. It should be $96.66 M


Now corrected:


Last edited by Kosty; 11-08-2011 at 11:19 PM..
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Old 11-08-2011, 10:18 PM   #129  
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What was the YOY BO change for todays weekly numbers?
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Old 11-08-2011, 10:22 PM   #130  
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Well that paints a different picture altogether. A PS3 demo title going up against a chic flick that sucked.
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Old 11-08-2011, 10:25 PM   #131  
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Quote:
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There was a typo on the web chart for DVD revenues. It should be $96.66 M
Fixed. Thanks for pointing that out.
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Old 11-08-2011, 10:31 PM   #132  
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Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
Sounds about right. The last 9 weeks TBO will be minus $700 million or so, which should result in much more modest growth. I'm equally interested in how DVD responds to the upcoming drought. OD has been buoyed the last few months by very high YoY box office, so when that goes the other way then so might OD's numbers in equal proportion.
I consider 25% to be right at the point where we should see the clear flattening of the s-curve.

We will know more after H1 of next year, but I could actually imagine a 2012 Q3 with BD either being flat or down depending on the release cycle for the summer movies.
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Old 11-08-2011, 10:33 PM   #133  
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Well that paints a different picture altogether. A PS3 demo title going up against a chic flick that sucked.
And if you look at Q4 as a whole YoY.

2010 TBO: 655.3
2011 TBO: 1166.4

And that does not factor in the relatively strong catalog releases so far.
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Old 11-08-2011, 11:37 PM   #134  
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And if you look at Q4 as a whole YoY.

2010 TBO: 655.3
2011 TBO: 1166.4

And that does not factor in the relatively strong catalog releases so far.
IMO what happened is COD happened. The studios decided to get the majority of their flagship titles out before COD hit today. Studio execs always said they had to release their titles around the big video games. Heck COD keeps on breaking records every year for entertainment day launches.
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Old 11-09-2011, 07:23 PM   #135  
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The latest Nielsen First Alert DVD top 20 sales are up, for week ending 11/6. Note in the chart that 3D sales are being isolated out for the first time. Cars 2 had a 17% 3D share, which is for OD. Since Blu-ray had a 47% share for the title, then the 3D share of the Blu-ray SKUs is 17/47 = 36.1%. That's pretty high considering the low adoption rate of 3D so far. The high percentage can only be explained in that there were a lot of future-proof sales, which is understandable considering that at about only $5 more, the 3D SKU represents the best value (and especially so with Disney titles that also include the digital copy and more special features as an exclusive to the 3D sku).

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/top...k-ended-110611

In the BLu-ray chart, note that Captain America was only 18.8% of what Cars 2 did. It looks like either Cars 2 either did much better than CA, or that CA tanked in week 2(or a combination of both).

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/top...k-ended-110611

Last edited by bruceames; 11-09-2011 at 07:26 PM..
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