High Def Forum - Your High Definition Community & High Definition Resource

Go Back   High Def Forum - Your High Definition Community & High Definition Resource >
Rules HDTV Forum Gallery LINK TO US! RSS - High Def Forum AddThis Feed Button AddThis Social Bookmark Button Groups

High Definition Media A place to discuss BD and UHD Content from physical and digital media

Like Tree260Likes

Optical (Blu-ray/DVD) and Digital (EST/UV) Sales Thread

Reply
AddThis Social Bookmark Button
 
Thread Tools
Old 02-04-2012, 09:57 AM   #1306  
Super Moderator
Thread Starter
 
bruceames's Avatar
 

Join Date: May 2006
Location: Novato, CA
Posts: 17,128
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Malanthius View Post
Thanks Bruce! And thanks for the input Lee. I apologize for my sometimes simple explanations. I'm not the sharpest tool in the shed when it comes to these graphs and charts. So I may not explain or get across what in trying to as well as some of you. but it also doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out how poorly Bluray is doing compared to its predisessors.

Kosty plays games with words. He says things like its mathematicly impossible for a format to increase as the volume gets larger? Well tell us something that's actually relevant to the debate. We all know that! But looking at the growth DVD did compared to how much money it was bringing in? It just proves my point. You can say Bluray is a great success. But when you compare it to past formats and what they did? You see that it's actually not really a success. I think it's actually more of a failure for the studios. Although I doubt any would actually come out and say it. I don't think many Yugo car salesmen ever talked bad about thier cars to potential buyers either.
I think he meant that it's harder to have the same YoY increase on a bigger number as on a smaller number. For example, in the early years Blu-ray more than doubled their previous year sales. It would be very difficult, if not impossible, to continue to double their sales every year.

In normal growth cycles, the YoY change starts out high and gradually tapers off before starting its decline. In Blu-ray's case, the decline in YoY growth has been very steep, much more than it was with DVD.
bruceames is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-04-2012, 11:08 AM   #1307  
Muscle Cars Forever!
 
Lee Stewart's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 47,456
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
Does anyone have OD data for 1997 and 1998? I'd like to include those years in the table as well. Also I'd like to make another table incorporating the VHS data.
http://www.dvdinformation.com/News/index.cfm
Lee Stewart is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 02-04-2012, 11:34 AM   #1308  
High Definition is the definition of life.
 

Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 1,749
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Malanthius View Post
Kosty plays games with words. He says things like its mathematicly impossible for a format to increase as the volume gets larger?
If he said that, he is wrong. It is highly improbably as it requires acceleration of growth which eventually is impossible to attain. Not mathematically, but economically (there is not an unlimited amount of consumer dollars in the chain).


DVD itself saw an increase in it's performance growth after it's $1.8 billion dollar year, from 89.6% in 2000 to 131.3% in 2001.

So we have direct precedence of increase percentage gain after a $1.8 billion year, and DVD had a higher bar to jump due to the higher percentage growth strength of it's $1.8 billion (89.6% growth) year.
PSound is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-04-2012, 11:56 AM   #1309  
Home Theater Enthusiast
 
Kosty's Avatar
 

Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 5,063
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Malanthius View Post
Thanks Bruce! And thanks for the input Lee. I apologize for my sometimes simple explanations. I'm not the sharpest tool in the shed when it comes to these graphs and charts. So I may not explain or get across what in trying to as well as some of you. but it also doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out how poorly Bluray is doing compared to its predisessors.

Kosty plays games with words. He says things like its mathematicly impossible for a format to increase as the volume gets larger? Well tell us something that's actually relevant to the debate. We all know that! But looking at the growth DVD did compared to how much money it was bringing in? It just proves my point. You can say Bluray is a great success. But when you compare it to past formats and what they did? You see that it's actually not really a success. I think it's actually more of a failure for the studios. Although I doubt any would actually come out and say it. I don't think many Yugo car salesmen ever talked bad about thier cars to potential buyers either.
So once again you want to compare Blu-ray to DVD. Sure that's reasonable to do that comparison, but its not reasonable to declare Blu-ray a failure because it did not fully duplicate DVD's once in a lifetime success as one of the most successful consumer products of all time.

Success or failure of a product can be judged on if it is making money, which Blu-ray undeniably is even with its current magnitude. Success or failure of a product introduction can also be judged by what the situation would be and the profits made if the product did not exist.

Even though Blu-ray is not as large of success as DVD it, few things are, it is still a successful mainstream mass market product that is making more money for the studios and retailers than any other digital successor to DVD. Just because Blu-ray is not DVD does not make it a failure as you continue to assert.
Kosty is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-04-2012, 11:57 AM   #1310  
High Definition is the definition of life.
 
GizmoDVD's Avatar
 

Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,114
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
So once again you want to compare Blu-ray to DVD. Sure that's reasonable to do that comparison, but its not reasonable to declare Blu-ray a failure because it did not fully duplicate DVD's once in a lifetime success as one of the most successful consumer products of all time.

Success or failure of a product can be judged on if it is making money, which Blu-ray undeniably is even with its current magnitude. Success or failure of a product introduction can also be judged by what the situation would be and the profits made if the product did not exist.

Even though Blu-ray is not as large of success as DVD it, few things are, it is still a successful mainstream mass market product that is making more money for the studios and retailers than any other digital successor to DVD. Just because Blu-ray is not DVD does not make it a failure as you continue to assert.
Blu-ray is nearly 6 years old. 2 billion for the past two years is pretty damn bad split between many studios. I know you'll never get it, so there is no point is even trying.
GizmoDVD is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-04-2012, 11:58 AM   #1311  
Steelbook Addict
 
chipvideo's Avatar
 

Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 678
Default

Blu-ray only grew about $350 million for this year. That is the least amount of dollar gain since the end of the format war. That is pretty freaking sad!!!

The dollar gains should be going up, not going down. That is the sign a peak is near. All the big catalog titles have been put out. Not much left. Indy is all that is left for big catalog. That should come out this fall durring the peak of blu-ray.

So let me get this strait Kosty. YOu think that the studios and backers of blu-ray thought that blu-ray would only ever get to be 1/5th of dvd's success. Really? Thats what its looking to end up like.
chipvideo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-04-2012, 12:08 PM   #1312  
Home Theater Enthusiast
 
Kosty's Avatar
 

Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 5,063
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Malanthius View Post
Kosty plays games with words. He says things like its mathematicly impossible for a format to increase as the volume gets larger? Well tell us something that's actually relevant to the debate. We all know that!
I did not say that. For a period it certainly is possible.

For some products that are large enough as the S curve adoption pattern occurs and adoption increases percentages can increase.

But once a product reaches a large enough level of adoption or household penetration its almost impossible for early adoption growth rates to be sustained as there is less room for market penetration. Rates of 100% growth or 50% growth are almost impossible for any consumer product to sustain for long if they are mass market successes as you just run out of potential new adopters.

Its always easier to gain percentage growth when the year before is smaller so the math always inexorably tends to lower growth percentages over time except for the few times in a product life cycle where the adoption explodes upward. But Blu-ray has had such a steady sustained growth that it would run out of potential households to probably have that huge adoption spike that DVD shown.

Blu-ray will never be DVD as there are more alternatives available now than to just have all consumers do a one to one upgrade from the previous product to the old product to the new one.
Kosty is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-04-2012, 12:16 PM   #1313  
Home Theater Enthusiast
 
Kosty's Avatar
 

Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 5,063
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
I think he meant that it's harder to have the same YoY increase on a bigger number as on a smaller number. For example, in the early years Blu-ray more than doubled their previous year sales. It would be very difficult, if not impossible, to continue to double their sales every year.

In normal growth cycles, the YoY change starts out high and gradually tapers off before starting its decline. In Blu-ray's case, the decline in YoY growth has been very steep, much more than it was with DVD.
Thanks, that's what I meant.

It will be interesting to see what the growth for Blu-ray will be this year.

Blu-ray's decline in revenue growth was dramatically impacted by the weaker box office strength in 2011 compared to 2010. Also the lower ASP was lower so more units sold did not translate as much into revenue gains.

But a better judge of Blu-ray's market growth and consumer demand and consumer adoption trending is units sold for both Blu-ray players and Blu-ray software.

We will soon have the data for units sold for all of 2010 and 2011 on a week by week basis and cumulative for both years and for 2012.

Units sold is a purer showing of the market adoption curve as its not impacted as revenues are by the average selling price of the units sold.

Of course we also have the complicating factors of product mix changes and things like combo packs that make things messy as well.
Kosty is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-04-2012, 12:21 PM   #1314  
Home Theater Enthusiast
 
Kosty's Avatar
 

Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 5,063
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by PSound View Post
If he said that, he is wrong. It is highly improbably as it requires acceleration of growth which eventually is impossible to attain. Not mathematically, but economically (there is not an unlimited amount of consumer dollars in the chain).


DVD itself saw an increase in it's performance growth after it's $1.8 billion dollar year, from 89.6% in 2000 to 131.3% in 2001.

So we have direct precedence of increase percentage gain after a $1.8 billion year, and DVD had a higher bar to jump due to the higher percentage growth strength of it's $1.8 billion (89.6% growth) year.
I agree with that. DVD and some other products do show that. But in most of those cases, not only are prices not as variable in those growth years but the scale of adoption is not as high as DVD is in magnitude and the possible universe of potential owners is never approached.

DVD is a unusual product success as it reached a huge level of adoption quickly to most households. Few products exhibit any where DVDs level of success.

No one is arguing here that Blu-ray has or ever will reach DVDs level of success in those metrics. Its a different world now in the second decade of the 21st century that DVD had to grow in 15 years ago.
Kosty is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-04-2012, 12:31 PM   #1315  
Home Theater Enthusiast
 
Kosty's Avatar
 

Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 5,063
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by chipvideo View Post
Blu-ray only grew about $350 million for this year. That is the least amount of dollar gain since the end of the format war. That is pretty freaking sad!!!

The dollar gains should be going up, not going down. That is the sign a peak is near. All the big catalog titles have been put out. Not much left. Indy is all that is left for big catalog. That should come out this fall durring the peak of blu-ray.

So let me get this strait Kosty. YOu think that the studios and backers of blu-ray thought that blu-ray would only ever get to be 1/5th of dvd's success. Really? Thats what its looking to end up like.
Its your assumption that Blu-ray will peak this year or next at those levels. If it does then I think that would be below some expectations.

But it has not happened yet as as usual I think you are too pessimistic in your assumptions that Blu-ray would peak at 1/5th of DVD.

But as I have said to you numerous time, all the non public and public projections I ever saw during the format war from either the HD DVD or Blu-ray side went only through the end of 2010 and Blu-ray by itself had exceeded those projections.

A lot more catalog titles are yet to be released and the entire slate of released Blu-ray inventory is available as proxy new releases to new owners of the format. As the user base expands routine catalog and older release sales for Blu-ray will incrementally grow over time.

Between 2010 and 2011 there was a large price drop in the average selling price of Blu-ray units sold that moderated the gains in units sold in being translated into revenue gains. That's in addition to your now routine ignoring of the strength of new releases.

It will be interesting to see how 2012 will turn out in Blu-ray revenue gains and unit gains compared to 2010 2011 and 2012.
Kosty is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-04-2012, 12:36 PM   #1316  
Home Theater Enthusiast
 
Kosty's Avatar
 

Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 5,063
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by GizmoDVD View Post
Blu-ray is nearly 6 years old. 2 billion for the past two years is pretty damn bad split between many studios. I know you'll never get it, so there is no point is even trying.
We'll see eventually how 2012 and later years turn out.

$2 billion dollars for software on shiny plastic discs that cost a small amount to produce with large profit per unit sold is a lot of money even if its less than DVDs revenue stream. For example its a lot more that studios are getting from other digital alternatives or say from Redbox.

Billions of dollars in annual revenue is more than most major brand name consumer product lines in North America. You just cannot forget the scale of things we are talking about here.

As a high margin high profit product Blu-ray is still generating a lot of profit for the studios and retailers than other formats exceed EST which is still tiny compared to DVD and BD. Blu-ray is doing better than other digital replacements for DVD as well.

One other thing to consider. The larger amounts of revenues generated by DVD or rental alternatives are often made with lower priced unit transactions that are low margin and low price and low profit.

Blu-ray as a higher priced more premium higher margin product packs a lot of profit per transaction so even at $2 billion and growing in revenues it generates more profit than other formats and rental alternatives would do at the same level of sales.

Last edited by Kosty; 02-04-2012 at 12:51 PM..
Kosty is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-04-2012, 12:37 PM   #1317  
High Definition is the definition of life.
 

Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 1,749
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
Between 2010 and 2011 there was a large price drop in the average selling price of Blu-ray units sold that moderated the gains in units sold in being translated into revenue gains.
But that is exactly the opposite of what you stated/predicted would happen in 2011.

You stated that relative pricing stability would occur in 2011. Indeed, you used that to project stronger Q4 growth in 2011 when faced with the very weak single digit growth of Blu-ray in H1 2011.


You repeatedly attacked those with dissenting opinion as pessimistic. Indeed, you continue to do that today (and yesterday and the day before....).

Can you man up and state that you were wrong. Wrong in your predictions and wrong to call people pessimistic who absolutely nailed the actual growth of BD in 2011.

Please, no 5 paragraph response. Just man up and state you were wrong then to call people pessimistic when they were correct in their projections while yours were wildly inaccurate.
PSound is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-04-2012, 12:49 PM   #1318  
High Definition is the definition of life.
 
GizmoDVD's Avatar
 

Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,114
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by PSound View Post
But that is exactly the opposite of what you stated/predicted would happen in 2011.

You stated that relative pricing stability would occur in 2011. Indeed, you used that to project stronger Q4 growth in 2011 when faced with the very weak single digit growth of Blu-ray in H1 2011.


You repeatedly attacked those with dissenting opinion as pessimistic. Indeed, you continue to do that today (and yesterday and the day before....).

Can you man up and state that you were wrong. Wrong in your predictions and wrong to call people pessimistic who absolutely nailed the actual growth of BD in 2011.

Please, no 5 paragraph response. Just man up and state you were wrong then to call people pessimistic when they were correct in their projections while yours were wildly inaccurate.
He won't.

Best Buy ws practically giving away Blu-rays for 2-3 weeks with their $5 coupon promotion and Blu-rays week to week gains were incredibly tiny.

It's time to face facts. We were right and he was wrong.
GizmoDVD is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-04-2012, 01:16 PM   #1319  
Home Theater Enthusiast
 
Kosty's Avatar
 

Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 5,063
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty
Between 2010 and 2011 there was a large price drop in the average selling price of Blu-ray units sold that moderated the gains in units sold in being translated into revenue gains.

Quote:
Originally Posted by PSound View Post
But that is exactly the opposite of what you stated/predicted would happen in 2011.

You stated that relative pricing stability would occur in 2011. Indeed, you used that to project stronger Q4 growth in 2011 when faced with the very weak single digit growth of Blu-ray in H1 2011.
That is not true. I certainly stated that it was a major factor in 2011 until we got to the point in the year that caught up to the 4Q 2010 price drops that any unit gains in the earlier part of the year would not translate directly into as much revenue gains as the discounted lower 4Q 2010 price points for new releases meant less revenues per units sold.

I stated that once we got into the late 3Q of 2011 and the 4Q of 2011 the price drops that occurred in late 4Q 2010 would age out of the equation. It was a factor in the revenue percentages that occurred through the first 1Q 2Q and 3Q of 2011.

In the last month of the 3Q and in the first half of the 4Q that is what occurred. The 4Q 2010 price drops in ASP became less of a factor and unit sales growth in the 3Q 2011 and first half of 4Q 2011 more directly translated into revenue gains. That's one factor in why we saw 58% YoY revenue gains in the 3Q period.

But from the middle of November 2011 on, as you and I both observed, the box office strength disparity shifted back in favor of 2010 and less units were sold in late November and December 2011 to overwhelm that effect of closer price points. Retailers also discounted prices on Black Friday and for before Christmas for catalog titles more than for new releases.



Quote:
You repeatedly attacked those with dissenting opinion as pessimistic. Indeed, you continue to do that today (and yesterday and the day before....).
Its hardly an "attack" to note that someone is more pessimistic than others.

Quote:
Can you man up and state that you were wrong. Wrong in your predictions and wrong to call people pessimistic who absolutely nailed the actual growth of BD in 2011.
Where did I ever state that anyone's predictions were wrong? I think some may be overstating their prescience when they were less than clear on "predicting" but I also think that some predictions were made that were based on some other pessimistic assumptions that did not happen and were close only because the box office disparity was greater than anticipated for all of 2011 over 2010.


Quote:
Please, no 5 paragraph response. Just man up and state you were wrong then to call people pessimistic when they were correct in their projections while yours were wildly inaccurate.
I generally do not make predictions or projections. But its not wrong to note that people are more pessimistic than others even if some comments end up being close to what happened.

What "predictions" of mine ended up being wildly inaccurate again?

The only one I remember ever making was one I heavily qualified as not being a prediction as it was being made even before we got the end of 2010 data and that's hardly a prediction. IIRC it was even talking about DEG data that AV was talking about which included rental income.

I think its fair to state that I projected that the stronger summer releases and earlier September tent pole releases and the strong catalog titles like Star Wars would greatly increase the percentage gains for Blu-ray in the second half of the year. We both also saw that the box office strength disparity would switch in favor of 2010 once again when Twilight: New Moon hit in December and the December 2010 releases were stronger than the December 2011 ones were.

The only other "predictions" I really made was in the 4Q revenue polls which most of the gang here did not participate in making guesses in.

Last edited by Kosty; 02-04-2012 at 01:20 PM..
Kosty is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-04-2012, 01:22 PM   #1320  
Home Theater Enthusiast
 
Kosty's Avatar
 

Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 5,063
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by GizmoDVD View Post
He won't.

Best Buy ws practically giving away Blu-rays for 2-3 weeks with their $5 coupon promotion and Blu-rays week to week gains were incredibly tiny.

It's time to face facts. We were right and he was wrong.
Of course Best Buy had low price points for Blu-ray catalog titles on some holiday weeks and as routine bargain Blu-ray titles in their product mix.
Kosty is offline   Reply With Quote
Sponsored Links
Go Back   High Def Forum - Your High Definition Community & High Definition Resource >
AddThis Social Bookmark Button
Reply

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off



All times are GMT -6. The time now is 03:17 PM.



Copyright ©2000 - 2020, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright 2004 - 2018, MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands