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Old 02-03-2012, 04:20 PM   #1291  
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Originally Posted by bombsnizzle View Post
2012 and yet more bluray conspiracies abound!!!

It never ends!!
Did you say conspiracy? Quick call Oliver Stone!
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Old 02-03-2012, 05:50 PM   #1292  
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Originally Posted by cakefoo View Post
The Numbers + HMM table I extrapolated shows that the weakness came from the top 20 units, immediate first week new release strength being more equal than it seemed on BO power alone, weaker second-week releases (Moneyball versus Social Network) and much weaker month-old December releases (like Inception and Despicable Me).

Theso-called "strong" box office is not as it seemed. In a year ago's favor, 3 movies (Buried Death Race 2 and Stain) combined for only $3M in box office power, yet they did 120k units total. Very efficient use of BO dollars. And on the downside for this week, $35M of the box office power was in a low budget cop drama that skewed heavily DVD with only 16% BD share.

Do not discount the importance of the second-week releases, Social Network versus Moneyball, nor the month-old December releases like Despicable Me and Twilight and Inception and Resident Evil and Salt.


I took a little time to see how you came up with this table, and noticed that you just assumed that The-Numbers and HMM ratios aligned back in early 2011. As there is no Numbers Blu-ray data going back that far, you took the DVD figures, and applied the Nielsen BD share to them to get the BD units.

But the problem with that, is from the time The-Numbers started tracking Blu-ray in May 2011, until early August, there was very little ratio alignment, or "link" between them and Nielsen First Alert. Without a reliable link, you have no Blu-ray data, even The-Numbers caliber data. On average, The-Numbers had a BD share about 20% lower, perhaps to account for a Walmart factor.

In early August, The-Numbers ratios started to be more consistent with Nielsen but we still have weeks where the alignment is off. Although once you account for that, the ratio between the titles are very similar.

The problem is that you can't assume the two sources align, especially when considering data one year apart. You can't derive Blu-ray sales figures from The-Numbers DVD estimates from one year ago because The-Numbers consistently had lower BD shares at that time.

So bottom line, your table has very little practical value, sorry to say. But thanks for the effort and hope you take no offense to my critic. And if my analysis is in error, please correct me.

That said, I agree with your premise (Mal does too BTW) and it is a very good point. It has been enlightening.

Last edited by bruceames; 02-03-2012 at 05:53 PM..
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Old 02-03-2012, 06:23 PM   #1293  
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Originally Posted by chipvideo View Post
Not only that Sony revised downward yesterday the PS3 sales projections.

They also sold less worldwide this year than last year. The xbox now has sold more worldwide this year. A complete change that hardly anyone thought possible.
The 360 beat the PS3 worldwide last year? I'll bet no one expected that.

I always figured after Blu-ray won the format war, that the PS3 would have a large advantage over the 360 because it doubles as a Blu-ray player. As such, it would be purchased more, enabling both more PS3 software and Blu-ray sales. Guess that hasn't panned out...
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Old 02-03-2012, 08:53 PM   #1294  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lee Stewart View Post
2009 BD sell thru growth = 70%

2010 BD sell thru growth = 68%

2011 BD sell thru growth = 20%

2012 BD sell thru growth YTD= 7%
I did not say the percentage growth YoY would be increasing, that's almost a mathematical certainty that it never could for a successful mass market product that reaches mainstream sales status.

But as long as the rate of sales is positive the gross sales are still growing in magnitude.

I think the 2012 YoY gains by the end of the year will be much better than 7%. They may be far better than that after Real Steel release week or probably after Twilight: Breaking Dawn Part 1 week in the near future.

Other factors have an impact on the revenue numbers as well including the box office strength and declining ASP where unit sales growth translate into less revenues.

But in any case as the previous year's gross numbers get larger year after year the percentage growth is always expected to be less as a ratio metric as a larger denominator in the equation naturally leads to a lower percentage growth number.

HD DVD for example never showed that as it died before it reached large enough mainstream status and household penetration. Since Blu-ray survived and is now large enough in sales magnitude as a successful mainstream mass market product is pretty much mathematically impossible to sustain the percentage growth it showed in earlier years when it started out and the previous year comparison numbers were smaller or even tiny.

Last edited by Kosty; 02-03-2012 at 09:01 PM..
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Old 02-03-2012, 08:55 PM   #1295  
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Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
I took a little time to see how you came up with this table, and noticed that you just assumed that The-Numbers and HMM ratios aligned back in early 2011. As there is no Numbers Blu-ray data going back that far, you took the DVD figures, and applied the Nielsen BD share to them to get the BD units.

But the problem with that, is from the time The-Numbers started tracking Blu-ray in May 2011, until early August, there was very little ratio alignment, or "link" between them and Nielsen First Alert. Without a reliable link, you have no Blu-ray data, even The-Numbers caliber data. On average, The-Numbers had a BD share about 20% lower, perhaps to account for a Walmart factor.

In early August, The-Numbers ratios started to be more consistent with Nielsen but we still have weeks where the alignment is off. Although once you account for that, the ratio between the titles are very similar.

The problem is that you can't assume the two sources align, especially when considering data one year apart. You can't derive Blu-ray sales figures from The-Numbers DVD estimates from one year ago because The-Numbers consistently had lower BD shares at that time.

So bottom line, your table has very little practical value, sorry to say. But thanks for the effort and hope you take no offense to my critic. And if my analysis is in error, please correct me.

That said, I agree with your premise (Mal does too BTW) and it is a very good point. It has been enlightening.
The ratios still were normally within 10% even at the start of the The-Numbers data for Blu-ray which would still make cakefoo's data order of magnitude correct. Which would be good enough to still make his point conclusively.
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Old 02-03-2012, 10:12 PM   #1296  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
I did not say the percentage growth YoY would be increasing, that's almost a mathematical certainty that it never could for a successful mass market product that reaches mainstream sales status.

But as long as the rate of sales is positive the gross sales are still growing in magnitude.

I think the 2012 YoY gains by the end of the year will be much better than 7%. They may be far better than that after Real Steel release week or probably after Twilight: Breaking Dawn Part 1 week in the near future.

Other factors have an impact on the revenue numbers as well including the box office strength and declining ASP where unit sales growth translate into less revenues.

But in any case as the previous year's gross numbers get larger year after year the percentage growth is always expected to be less as a ratio metric as a larger denominator in the equation naturally leads to a lower percentage growth number.

HD DVD for example never showed that as it died before it reached large enough mainstream status and household penetration. Since Blu-ray survived and is now large enough in sales magnitude as a successful mainstream mass market product is pretty much mathematically impossible to sustain the percentage growth it showed in earlier years when it started out and the previous year comparison numbers were smaller or even tiny.
What kind of YOY sell through growth did DVD enjoy up till it peaked? How about VHS? Was it mathematicly impossible for those two mass market mainstream formats as well?
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Old 02-03-2012, 10:17 PM   #1297  
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Also. It should be pretty easy to grow with Blurays shitty sales numbers compared to those other formats. Bluray is at a pathetic 2 billion. That's after 5 years! And it's slowing almost to a standstill. Think about it. It just shows that a real successful format that brings in big money can still grow. Bluray is having trouble growing with much smaller numbers.
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Old 02-03-2012, 11:46 PM   #1298  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
The ratios still were normally within 10% even at the start of the The-Numbers data for Blu-ray which would still make cakefoo's data order of magnitude correct. Which would be good enough to still make his point conclusively.
And you would be incorrect. During the first 10 week period I recorded, from May 29 through August 31, The-Numbers reported Blu-ray units, on average, 27.1% BELOW what the DVD-derived figures are (the method that cakefoo used). Here they all are, for those 10 weeks:

Code:
Date	FromDVD Blu-ray	difference	Title
7/31/11	269069	188845	-29.8%	Source Code
7/31/11	96564	71648	-25.8%	Rango
7/31/11	82110	61941	-24.6%	Limitless
7/31/11	46547	32689	-29.8%	Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows  Part 1
7/31/11	40774	25966	-36.3%	Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban
7/31/11	40594	27647	-31.9%	Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix
7/31/11	39954	26344	-34.1%	Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets
7/31/11	36484	25570	-29.9%	Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire
7/31/11	32994	24285	-26.4%	The Lincoln Lawyer
7/24/11	458721	317392	-30.8%	Rango
7/24/11	285361	199703	-30.0%	Limitless
7/24/11	72349	52941	-26.8%	The Lincoln Lawyer
7/24/11	68761	50624	-26.4%	Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows  Part 1
7/24/11	49184	35135	-28.6%	Insidious
7/24/11	49181	34977	-28.9%	Take Me Home Tonight
7/24/11	41067	30470	-25.8%	Arthur
7/24/11	36527	23455	-35.8%	Sucker Punch
7/24/11	32611	24534	-24.8%	Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
7/24/11	30358	23836	-21.5%	Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules
7/17/11	514809	352502	-31.5%	Rango
7/17/11	286064	199798	-30.2%	Insidious
7/17/11	175824	134480	-23.5%	Arthur
7/17/11	131958	97291	-26.3%	Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows  Part 1
7/17/11	88318	32501	-63.2%	Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix
7/17/11	49374	32818	-33.5%	Hall Pass
7/17/11	40597	69464	71.1%	Just Go With It
7/17/11	39788	38317	-3.7%	Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
7/10/11	104508	69464	-33.5%	Sucker Punch
7/10/11	59719	38933	-34.8%	13 Assassins
7/10/11	45828	32263	-29.6%	Battle: Los Angeles
7/10/11	42120	31474	-25.3%	Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows  Part 1
7/10/11	39692	27719	-30.2%	Tangled
7/10/11	32062	23020	-28.2%	Season of the Witch
7/10/11	31480	22459	-28.7%	Unknown
7/3/11	438544	265856	-39.4%	Sucker Punch
7/3/11	133792	97702	-27.0%	Season of the Witch
7/3/11	82167	54537	-33.6%	Battle: Los Angeles
7/3/11	57731	41820	-27.6%	Unknown
7/3/11	53474	37782	-29.3%	True Grit
7/3/11	52469	38926	-25.8%	The Adjustment Bureau
7/3/11	51959	35394	-31.9%	The Warrior's Way
7/3/11	36925	28227	-23.6%	Beastly
6/26/11	229872	122305	-46.8%	The Adjustment Bureau
6/26/11	206429	110246	-46.6%	Unknown
6/26/11	174099	91166	-47.6%	Battle: Los Angeles
6/26/11	106903	61568	-42.4%	Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules
6/26/11	99473	54634	-45.1%	True Grit
6/26/11	86164	46109	-46.5%	The Eagle
6/26/11	57867	30527	-47.2%	Cars
6/26/11	45614	25929	-43.2%	Hall Pass
6/26/11	33912	19838	-41.5%	Red Riding Hood
6/19/11	543563	375018	-31.0%	Battle: Los Angeles
6/19/11	535035	372018	-30.5%	True Grit
6/19/11	110540	87267	-21.1%	Hall Pass
6/19/11	103571	81529	-21.3%	Red Riding Hood
6/19/11	77102	61465	-20.3%	Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows  Part 1
6/19/11	48819	34689	-28.9%	Despicable Me
6/19/11	39764	32739	-17.7%	Just Go With It
6/12/11	921038	736835	-20.0%	True Grit
6/12/11	213848	188188	-12.0%	Just Go With It
6/12/11	103056	91833	-10.9%	Green Lantern: Emerald Knights
6/12/11	77653	60568	-22.0%	Sanctum
6/12/11	37604	30284	-19.5%	Drive Angry
6/12/11	33705	31831	-5.6%	True Blood: The Complete Third Season
6/12/11	31188	28589	-8.3%	Gnomeo & Juliet
6/12/11	30023	25273	-15.8%	Tron: Legacy
6/12/11	29719	27705	-6.8%	Breaking Bad: The Complete Third Season
6/5/11	208285	198557	-4.7%	True Blood: The Complete Third Season
6/5/11	124477	110338	-11.4%	Drive Angry
6/5/11	58015	52757	-9.1%	I Am Number Four
6/5/11	57729	36237	-37.2%	X-Men
6/5/11	56110	53054	-5.4%	Gnomeo & Juliet
6/5/11	46956	36376	-22.5%	X-Men Origins: Wolverine
6/5/11	34486	31332	-9.1%	Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows  Part 1
5/29/11	320846	271015	-15.5%	Gnomeo & Juliet
5/29/11	294214	241068	-18.1%	I Am Number Four
5/29/11	89312	73797	-17.4%	The Mechanic
5/29/11	53738	44555	-17.1%	Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows  Part 1
5/29/11	37566	30977	-17.5%	The Rite
5/29/11	35862	29920	-16.6%	The Green Hornet
5/29/11	35573	31926	-10.3%	Tangled
5/29/11	34102	31817	-6.7%	Justin Bieber: Never Say Never
5/29/11	32921	29243	-11.2%	No Strings Attached
5/29/11	31254	23687	-24.2%	Tron: Legacy
The second column is the DVD-derived figure, and the third column is the actual reported figure from The-Numbers. Notice how much lower the actual figures are. Quite a bit, huh? Cakefoo is using the DVD-derived figures. Of course, he had no choice, because there is no "The-Number" Blu-ray data from which to compare in early 2011. But as you can see, The-Numbers were reported very different, and much lower, figures than would be derived from simply plugging in the Nielsen share in The-Numbers Blu-ray data.

So as you can see, assuming that The-Numbers Blu-ray share would have been even ballpark close to Nielsen is grossly incorrect. And that's not even considering how BS The-Numbers data really is in the first place. Do you want me to remind you how many weeks in a row The-Numbers top 10 Blu-ray was higher than HMM?
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Old 02-03-2012, 11:52 PM   #1299  
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Originally Posted by Malanthius View Post
What kind of YOY sell through growth did DVD enjoy up till it peaked? How about VHS? Was it mathematicly impossible for those two mass market mainstream formats as well?
DVD sell-through YoY gains and total yearly sell-through revenue:

Year 3: 89.6% (2000) $1.82 billion
Year 4: 131.3% $4.21 billion
Year 5: 53.2% $6.45 billion
Year 6: 46.4% $9.44 billion
Year 7: 31.9% $12.45 billion
Year 8: 8.5% $13.51 billion
Year 9: 2.8% (2006) $13.89 billion
Year 10: -3.7% $13.38 billion

I'll have to find the VHS table and get back to you.

Here's the table. It looks like VHS sell-through spending peaked in 1997, the same year DVD came out, at $5.3 billion. Rental spending was $7.3 billion that year, and rental spending on VHS probably didn't peak until a few years later.

Code:
Year	Rental Spending	Sell-Through Spending	Total Spending
1981	$0.20 	$0.20 	$0.40 
1982	$0.30 	$0.30 	$0.60 
1983	$0.70 	$0.30 	$1.00 
1984	$1.20 	$0.40 	$1.60 
1985	$2.10 	$0.60 	$2.70 
1986	$3.00 	$0.90 	$3.90 
1987	$3.90 	$1.00 	$4.90 
1988	$4.70 	$1.70 	$6.40 
1989	$5.50 	$2.20 	$7.70 
1990	$6.30 	$2.70 	$9.00 
1991	$6.40 	$2.80 	$9.20 
1992	$7.00 	$2.90 	$9.90 
1993	$7.20 	$3.00 	$10.20 
1994	$7.50 	$4.00 	$11.50 
1995	$7.00 	$4.60 	$11.60 
1996	$7.10 	$5.20 	$12.30 
1997	$7.30 	$5.30 	$12.60 
1998	$7.60 	$5.60 	$13.20 
1999	$8.00 	$5.50 	$13.50 
2000	$8.20 	$7.30 	$15.50 
2001	$8.60 	$8.80 	$17.40 
2002	$8.40 	$10.60 	$19.00 
2003	$8.30 	$12.70 	$21.00 
2004	$7.80 	$14.10 	$21.90 
2005	$7.60 	$13.90 	$21.50 
2006	$7.50 	$13.90 	$21.40 
2007	$7.20 	$13.40 	$20.60 
2008	$6.90 	$12.40 	$19.30 
2009	$6.50 	$10.90 	$17.40 
2010	$6.20 	$10.00 	$16.20
hattip Kosty

Last edited by bruceames; 02-04-2012 at 12:04 AM..
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Old 02-04-2012, 12:18 AM   #1300  
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Thanks for that data Bruce. Very informative.

2008 BD sell thru growth = 400%....$750M

2009 BD sell thru growth = 70%....$1.275B

2010 BD sell thru growth = 68%...$1.8B

2011 BD sell thru growth = 20%...$2.1B

2012 BD sell thru growth YTD= 7%...(?)

Last edited by Lee Stewart; 02-04-2012 at 12:28 AM..
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Old 02-04-2012, 08:57 AM   #1301  
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But that still makes cakefoo's point.

First off he used the same method of calculation for both years and we know that the numbers he did calculate out are very close to what was just reported by The-Numbers in the Blu-ray Top 10 report. The same house biases would effect both years and cancel out.

But more to the point is that even if the numbers for the Top 20 units were biased high, that even makes his point even more strongly as that would mean that even less new release units were sold. Even so the calculated numbers still would be order of magnitude correct.

Some possible assumptions in your calculations of the May through July calculations are possible. Most of those titles did very modest units sold sold so the percentages of any possible error actually represent less units. Most of those titles are also more leaning DVD genres and the Nielsen Videoscan marketshare which does not include Walmart would normally be biased high.

In general the lower volume summer months would also make the calculations more volatile as the percentages would be applied against DVD estimates for more DVD leaning titles against DVD inflated Nielsen Videoscan percentages for lower volume titles.

Before we got the Blu-ray Top 10 estimates I always calculated a range based on the #1 titles DVD estimate and its Nielsen Videoscan marketshare and then calculated the other titles of the Nielsen Videoscan first alert Blu-ray Top 20 list Index numbers. Compared to the individual titles DVD estimate and NV BD unit marketshare that would give a range that would probably be more accurate.

I have been told since August the The-Number Blu-ray numbers generally have been pretty accurate and their cumulative totals even more accurate. Some exceptions have occurred for some major titles like green Lantern and Thor but were corrected in the cumulative totals for the following weeks. The revenue numbers are more inaccurate.




Quote:
Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
And you would be incorrect. During the first 10 week period I recorded, from May 29 through August 31, The-Numbers reported Blu-ray units, on average, 27.1% BELOW what the DVD-derived figures are (the method that cakefoo used). Here they all are, for those 10 weeks:

Spoiler:
Code:
Date	FromDVD Blu-ray	difference	Title
7/31/11	269069	188845	-29.8%	Source Code
7/31/11	96564	71648	-25.8%	Rango
7/31/11	82110	61941	-24.6%	Limitless
7/31/11	46547	32689	-29.8%	Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows  Part 1
7/31/11	40774	25966	-36.3%	Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban
7/31/11	40594	27647	-31.9%	Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix
7/31/11	39954	26344	-34.1%	Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets
7/31/11	36484	25570	-29.9%	Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire
7/31/11	32994	24285	-26.4%	The Lincoln Lawyer
7/24/11	458721	317392	-30.8%	Rango
7/24/11	285361	199703	-30.0%	Limitless
7/24/11	72349	52941	-26.8%	The Lincoln Lawyer
7/24/11	68761	50624	-26.4%	Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows  Part 1
7/24/11	49184	35135	-28.6%	Insidious
7/24/11	49181	34977	-28.9%	Take Me Home Tonight
7/24/11	41067	30470	-25.8%	Arthur
7/24/11	36527	23455	-35.8%	Sucker Punch
7/24/11	32611	24534	-24.8%	Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
7/24/11	30358	23836	-21.5%	Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules
7/17/11	514809	352502	-31.5%	Rango
7/17/11	286064	199798	-30.2%	Insidious
7/17/11	175824	134480	-23.5%	Arthur
7/17/11	131958	97291	-26.3%	Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows  Part 1
7/17/11	88318	32501	-63.2%	Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix
7/17/11	49374	32818	-33.5%	Hall Pass
7/17/11	40597	69464	71.1%	Just Go With It
7/17/11	39788	38317	-3.7%	Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
7/10/11	104508	69464	-33.5%	Sucker Punch
7/10/11	59719	38933	-34.8%	13 Assassins
7/10/11	45828	32263	-29.6%	Battle: Los Angeles
7/10/11	42120	31474	-25.3%	Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows  Part 1
7/10/11	39692	27719	-30.2%	Tangled
7/10/11	32062	23020	-28.2%	Season of the Witch
7/10/11	31480	22459	-28.7%	Unknown
7/3/11	438544	265856	-39.4%	Sucker Punch
7/3/11	133792	97702	-27.0%	Season of the Witch
7/3/11	82167	54537	-33.6%	Battle: Los Angeles
7/3/11	57731	41820	-27.6%	Unknown
7/3/11	53474	37782	-29.3%	True Grit
7/3/11	52469	38926	-25.8%	The Adjustment Bureau
7/3/11	51959	35394	-31.9%	The Warrior's Way
7/3/11	36925	28227	-23.6%	Beastly
6/26/11	229872	122305	-46.8%	The Adjustment Bureau
6/26/11	206429	110246	-46.6%	Unknown
6/26/11	174099	91166	-47.6%	Battle: Los Angeles
6/26/11	106903	61568	-42.4%	Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules
6/26/11	99473	54634	-45.1%	True Grit
6/26/11	86164	46109	-46.5%	The Eagle
6/26/11	57867	30527	-47.2%	Cars
6/26/11	45614	25929	-43.2%	Hall Pass
6/26/11	33912	19838	-41.5%	Red Riding Hood
6/19/11	543563	375018	-31.0%	Battle: Los Angeles
6/19/11	535035	372018	-30.5%	True Grit
6/19/11	110540	87267	-21.1%	Hall Pass
6/19/11	103571	81529	-21.3%	Red Riding Hood
6/19/11	77102	61465	-20.3%	Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows  Part 1
6/19/11	48819	34689	-28.9%	Despicable Me
6/19/11	39764	32739	-17.7%	Just Go With It
6/12/11	921038	736835	-20.0%	True Grit
6/12/11	213848	188188	-12.0%	Just Go With It
6/12/11	103056	91833	-10.9%	Green Lantern: Emerald Knights
6/12/11	77653	60568	-22.0%	Sanctum
6/12/11	37604	30284	-19.5%	Drive Angry
6/12/11	33705	31831	-5.6%	True Blood: The Complete Third Season
6/12/11	31188	28589	-8.3%	Gnomeo & Juliet
6/12/11	30023	25273	-15.8%	Tron: Legacy
6/12/11	29719	27705	-6.8%	Breaking Bad: The Complete Third Season
6/5/11	208285	198557	-4.7%	True Blood: The Complete Third Season
6/5/11	124477	110338	-11.4%	Drive Angry
6/5/11	58015	52757	-9.1%	I Am Number Four
6/5/11	57729	36237	-37.2%	X-Men
6/5/11	56110	53054	-5.4%	Gnomeo & Juliet
6/5/11	46956	36376	-22.5%	X-Men Origins: Wolverine
6/5/11	34486	31332	-9.1%	Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows  Part 1
5/29/11	320846	271015	-15.5%	Gnomeo & Juliet
5/29/11	294214	241068	-18.1%	I Am Number Four
5/29/11	89312	73797	-17.4%	The Mechanic
5/29/11	53738	44555	-17.1%	Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows  Part 1
5/29/11	37566	30977	-17.5%	The Rite
5/29/11	35862	29920	-16.6%	The Green Hornet
5/29/11	35573	31926	-10.3%	Tangled
5/29/11	34102	31817	-6.7%	Justin Bieber: Never Say Never
5/29/11	32921	29243	-11.2%	No Strings Attached
5/29/11	31254	23687	-24.2%	Tron: Legacy

The second column is the DVD-derived figure, and the third column is the actual reported figure from The-Numbers. Notice how much lower the actual figures are. Quite a bit, huh? Cakefoo is using the DVD-derived figures. Of course, he had no choice, because there is no "The-Number" Blu-ray data from which to compare in early 2011. But as you can see, The-Numbers were reported very different, and much lower, figures than would be derived from simply plugging in the Nielsen share in The-Numbers Blu-ray data.

So as you can see, assuming that The-Numbers Blu-ray share would have been even ballpark close to Nielsen is grossly incorrect. And that's not even considering how BS The-Numbers data really is in the first place. Do you want me to remind you how many weeks in a row The-Numbers top 10 Blu-ray was higher than HMM?
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Old 02-04-2012, 08:58 AM   #1302  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lee Stewart View Post
Thanks for that data Bruce. Very informative.

2008 BD sell thru growth = 400%....$750M

2009 BD sell thru growth = 70%....$1.275B

2010 BD sell thru growth = 68%...$1.8B

2011 BD sell thru growth = 20%...$2.1B

2012 BD sell thru growth YTD= 7%...(?)
Very different growth pattern for Blu-ray. The decline is much steeper, and with a much smaller revenue base.


Here's the two tables I made from the DEG data (from posts 706 and 708 in this thread), updated to show the final 2011 data.

Figures are in billions.
% BD = sell through percentage of BD vs. OD.
% rent = percentage of OD rentals (BD + DVD)

Code:
Year Total   DVDsell  DVDrent  BDsell  BDrent	% rent	% BD

1999	1.1	0.96	0.14	0.00	0.00	12.5%	0.0%
2000	2.4	1.82	0.58	0.00	0.00	24.0%	0.0%
2001	5.3	4.21	1.09	0.00	0.00	20.6%	0.0%
2002	8.6	6.45	2.15	0.00	0.00	25.0%	0.0%
2003	13.1	9.44	3.66	0.00	0.00	28.0%	0.0%
2004	16.7	12.45	4.25	0.00	0.00	25.5%	0.0%
2005	18.9	13.51	5.39	0.00	0.00	28.5%	0.0%
2006	20.2	13.89	6.29	0.02	0.00	31.1%	0.1%
2007	20.0	13.38	6.31*	0.25	0.05*	32.1%	1.8%
2008	19.3	12.48	5.92	0.63	0.27	33.0%	5.0%
2009	17.3	10.55	5.25	1.07	0.43	32.8%	9.2%
2010	16.3	8.90	5.10	1.80	0.50	34.4%  16.8%
2011	14.6	6.85	4.90*	2.15	0.77*	38.8%  24.0%
* = estimate

Code:
Year	ODsell	YoY%	DVDsell	YoY%	BDsell	YoY%	Odrent	YoY%
1999	0.96	0.0%	0.96	0.0%	0.00	0.0%	0.14	0.0%
2000	1.82	89.6%	1.82	89.6%	0.00	0.0%	0.58	314.3%
2001	4.21	131.3%	4.21	131.3%	0.00	0.0%	1.09	87.9%
2002	6.45	53.2%	6.45	53.2%	0.00	0.0%	2.15	97.2%
2003	9.44	46.4%	9.44	46.4%	0.00	0.0%	3.66	70.2%
2004	12.45	31.9%	12.45	31.9%	0.00	0.0%	4.25	16.1%
2005	13.51	8.5%	13.51	8.5%	0.00	0.0%	5.39	26.8%
2006	13.91	3.0%	13.89	2.8%	0.02	0.0%	6.29	16.7%
2007	13.63	-2.0%	13.38	-3.7%	0.25	1125.0%	6.36	1.1%
2008	13.13	-3.7%	12.48	-6.7%	0.63	152.0%	6.17	-3.0%
2009	11.62	-11.5%	10.55	-15.5%	1.07	70.0%	5.68	-7.9%
2010	10.70	-7.9%	8.90	-15.6%	1.80	68.2%	5.80	2.1%
2011	8.95	-16.4%	6.85	-23.0%	2.15	19.4%	5.67	-2.4%
Notice the 16.4% OD sell-through decline in 2011. By far the biggest ever.

Does anyone have OD data for 1997 and 1998? I'd like to include those years in the table as well. Also I'd like to make another table incorporating the VHS data.

Last edited by bruceames; 02-04-2012 at 09:02 AM..
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Old 02-04-2012, 09:17 AM   #1303  
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Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
But that still makes cakefoo's point.

First off he used the same method of calculation for both years and we know that the numbers he did calculate out are very close to what was just reported by The-Numbers in the Blu-ray Top 10 report. The same house biases would effect both years and cancel out.
But you can't use the same method for both years. You can use the DVD chart on data since August 2011, since the ratios line up pretty well with Nielsen. But before that the variation is wide, and always negative.

As I showed, the average variation was -27.1% during those 10 weeks. And since those weeks are much closer to the earlier week being compared, it's likely that earlier week being used to compare would be down by a similar amount.

For example, if we applied that -27.1% factor to Cakefoo's 2011 data, it would actually lower (by a tiny amount) than the 2012 data.

Quote:
But more to the point is that even if the numbers for the Top 20 units were biased high, that even makes his point even more strongly as that would mean that even less new release units were sold. Even so the calculated numbers still would be order of magnitude correct.
They are biased low, not high. The actual The-Numbers figures for Blu-ray are lower during that 10 week period. Only after August are they not biased (the ratios, that is).


Quote:
In general the lower volume summer months would also make the calculations more volatile as the percentages would be applied against DVD estimates for more DVD leaning titles against DVD inflated Nielsen Videoscan percentages for lower volume titles.
Those summer months are not at all much lower than the early months of the year. Perhaps 10% or so, certainly not enough to increase the 'volatility' by any appreciate amount.
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Old 02-04-2012, 09:35 AM   #1304  
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Bottom line is that you can't use the DVD tables at all for pre-August 2011, and even then you have to check to see if there actual ratios align. Sometimes they don't. And when they don't you can't use them either.

One can come up with a correction factor to make the ratios align though, as long as the Blu-ray top 10 data is available and the actual ratios themselves align fairly well with each other. That is, the deviation within the actual ratios is small. I can explain how to do that in a later post...

Last edited by bruceames; 02-04-2012 at 09:43 AM..
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Old 02-04-2012, 09:46 AM   #1305  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
DVD sell-through YoY gains and total yearly sell-through revenue:

Year 3: 89.6% (2000) $1.82 billion
Year 4: 131.3% $4.21 billion
Year 5: 53.2% $6.45 billion
Year 6: 46.4% $9.44 billion
Year 7: 31.9% $12.45 billion
Year 8: 8.5% $13.51 billion
Year 9: 2.8% (2006) $13.89 billion
Year 10: -3.7% $13.38 billion

I'll have to find the VHS table and get back to you.

Here's the table. It looks like VHS sell-through spending peaked in 1997, the same year DVD came out, at $5.3 billion. Rental spending was $7.3 billion that year, and rental spending on VHS probably didn't peak until a few years later.

Code:
Year	Rental Spending	Sell-Through Spending	Total Spending
1981	$0.20 	$0.20 	$0.40 
1982	$0.30 	$0.30 	$0.60 
1983	$0.70 	$0.30 	$1.00 
1984	$1.20 	$0.40 	$1.60 
1985	$2.10 	$0.60 	$2.70 
1986	$3.00 	$0.90 	$3.90 
1987	$3.90 	$1.00 	$4.90 
1988	$4.70 	$1.70 	$6.40 
1989	$5.50 	$2.20 	$7.70 
1990	$6.30 	$2.70 	$9.00 
1991	$6.40 	$2.80 	$9.20 
1992	$7.00 	$2.90 	$9.90 
1993	$7.20 	$3.00 	$10.20 
1994	$7.50 	$4.00 	$11.50 
1995	$7.00 	$4.60 	$11.60 
1996	$7.10 	$5.20 	$12.30 
1997	$7.30 	$5.30 	$12.60 
1998	$7.60 	$5.60 	$13.20 
1999	$8.00 	$5.50 	$13.50 
2000	$8.20 	$7.30 	$15.50 
2001	$8.60 	$8.80 	$17.40 
2002	$8.40 	$10.60 	$19.00 
2003	$8.30 	$12.70 	$21.00 
2004	$7.80 	$14.10 	$21.90 
2005	$7.60 	$13.90 	$21.50 
2006	$7.50 	$13.90 	$21.40 
2007	$7.20 	$13.40 	$20.60 
2008	$6.90 	$12.40 	$19.30 
2009	$6.50 	$10.90 	$17.40 
2010	$6.20 	$10.00 	$16.20
hattip Kosty
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lee Stewart View Post
Thanks for that data Bruce. Very informative.

2008 BD sell thru growth = 400%....$750M

2009 BD sell thru growth = 70%....$1.275B

2010 BD sell thru growth = 68%...$1.8B

2011 BD sell thru growth = 20%...$2.1B

2012 BD sell thru growth YTD= 7%...(?)
Thanks Bruce! And thanks for the input Lee. I apologize for my sometimes simple explanations. I'm not the sharpest tool in the shed when it comes to these graphs and charts. So I may not explain or get across what in trying to as well as some of you. but it also doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out how poorly Bluray is doing compared to its predisessors.

Kosty plays games with words. He says things like its mathematicly impossible for a format to increase as the volume gets larger? Well tell us something that's actually relevant to the debate. We all know that! But looking at the growth DVD did compared to how much money it was bringing in? It just proves my point. You can say Bluray is a great success. But when you compare it to past formats and what they did? You see that it's actually not really a success. I think it's actually more of a failure for the studios. Although I doubt any would actually come out and say it. I don't think many Yugo car salesmen ever talked bad about thier cars to potential buyers either.
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