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Old 02-03-2012, 11:00 AM   #1276  
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According to the DEG, the number of BD playback devices sold in Q4 2011 was the same as Q4 2010.

But Kosty says that NPD and the CEA say more.

It's a case of selective evidence. We use the DEG numbers as a benchmark . . . unless it falls short of some yardstick that will prop up your argument, then you are supposed ignore the DEG data and get to use the data that supports your argument.
I often get data and sources that are not published on the web with a ready link.

There is a different time frame as well. The NPD data there is the nine week holiday sales season starting in November.

Blu-ray units did not go up by much in that period, but they did go up according to the NPD sales report data. Its the revenues generated by those sales that went down around 14% because the ASP went down by 25% YoY.

I can't post those slides openly though. Maybe I can figure out a way to show it in some form.
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Old 02-03-2012, 11:36 AM   #1277  
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I often get data and sources that are not published on the web with a ready link.

There is a different time frame as well. The NPD data there is the nine week holiday sales season starting in November.

Blu-ray units did not go up by much in that period, but they did go up according to the NPD sales report data. Its the revenues generated by those sales that went down around 14% because the ASP went down by 25% YoY.

I can't post those slides openly though. Maybe I can figure out a way to show it in some form.
Oh - I see now. For the 9 week period that the NPD/CEA is counting, BD PBDs were up YOY. But the bottom line is, for the entire Q4, YOY, sales of BD PBDs were the same . . . now I got it.
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Old 02-03-2012, 11:39 AM   #1278  
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Why do a 9 week report? Isn't quarterly (or yearly) reports the norm?
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Old 02-03-2012, 11:44 AM   #1279  
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Why do a 9 week report? Isn't quarterly (or yearly) reports the norm?
Sure - except when the report tells you that no growth was made. Then you look for the time period that will show growth. And you use that instead.

Remember when we used to get the DVD/BD player sales for the Black Friday week? Did you see one for 2011? I didn't.
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Old 02-03-2012, 11:45 AM   #1280  
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Yes I do. It was in the tables presented by NPD and the CEA at CES 2012 and distributed to me and others. But the actual slide is proprietary and I can't post it openly. Units for Blu-ray players went up and the NPD report was in revenues generated, not units for that figure.

In the article it only makes sense if you understand its referring to revenues in that holiday period.
I call BS.
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Old 02-03-2012, 11:48 AM   #1281  
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Sure - except when the report tells you that no growth was made. Then you look for the time period that will show growth. And you use that instead.

Remember when we used to get the DVD/BD player sales for the Black Friday week? Did you see one for 2011? I didn't.
I get it. Just by doing a odd time period report (which is only 4 weeks short of a quarterly report), it shows that it was necessary in order to show growth. The first 4 weeks in the quarter must have been bad, especially considering the last 9 weeks are higher volume weeks.
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Old 02-03-2012, 12:48 PM   #1282  
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Quote:
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I often get data and sources that are not published on the web with a ready link.
...

I can't post those slides openly though. Maybe I can figure out a way to show it in some form.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
Blu-ray units did not go up by much in that period, but they did go up according to the NPD sales report data.

But the actual slide is proprietary and I can't post it openly.
If blu-ray player sales were up, then the information would not be "proprietary". The BDA would be shouting from the highest rooftops. Andy Parsons would be dancing the jig.

I call BS as well. The fact that you are not even telling us how much the "slides" show blu-ray player sales increasing speaks volumes about your honesty here.
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Old 02-03-2012, 01:08 PM   #1283  
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If blu-ray player sales were up, then the information would not be "proprietary". The BDA would be shouting from the highest rooftops. Andy Parsons would be dancing the jig.

I call BS as well. The fact that you are not even telling us how much the "slides" show blu-ray player sales increasing speaks volumes about your honesty here.
2012 and yet more bluray conspiracies abound!!!

It never ends!!
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Old 02-03-2012, 01:49 PM   #1284  
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Why do a 9 week report? Isn't quarterly (or yearly) reports the norm?
Its what NPD does every year for the holiday seasonal report that starts on November first and goes through the nine weeks ending on the week after Christmas. They make the same report every year.
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Old 02-03-2012, 01:52 PM   #1285  
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I get it. Just by doing a odd time period report (which is only 4 weeks short of a quarterly report), it shows that it was necessary in order to show growth. The first 4 weeks in the quarter must have been bad, especially considering the last 9 weeks are higher volume weeks.
That's not why its a nine week report. Its done that way every year by NPD to fully cover the holiday season. Blu-ray is just one of the many consumer electronic items covered.
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Old 02-03-2012, 02:05 PM   #1286  
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If blu-ray player sales were up, then the information would not be "proprietary". The BDA would be shouting from the highest rooftops. Andy Parsons would be dancing the jig.

I call BS as well. The fact that you are not even telling us how much the "slides" show blu-ray player sales increasing speaks volumes about your honesty here.
It was from the January 10th, 2012 NPD presentation titled "Santa on Strike? No Just a Little Bit Pickier This Year."

Blu-ray sales were only slightly up in terms of units sold over the 9 week holiday period covered by the NPD. By my eyes the slide shows about 8% up for Blu-ray units, 25% for Average Selling Price and that results in about -15% down in terms of revenues generated during the period.

Both Stephen Baker of NPD and Shawn Dubravac. from the CEA told me personally that Blu-ray player units and revenues were slightly better than they anticipated for the holiday period and better than they expected for all of 2011. They also mentioned it was where they expected for Blu-ray's life cycle and that they both saw that optical disc players would be around for many years to come.

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Old 02-03-2012, 02:58 PM   #1287  
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It was from the January 10th, 2012 NPD presentation titled "Santa on Strike? No Just a Little Bit Pickier This Year."

Blu-ray sales were only slightly up in terms of units sold over the 9 week holiday period covered by the NPD. By my eyes the slide shows about 8% up for Blu-ray units, 25% for Average Selling Price and that results in about -15% down in terms of revenues generated during the period.

Both Stephen Baker of NPD and Shawn Dubravac. from the CEA told me personally that Blu-ray player units and revenues were slightly better than they anticipated for the holiday period and better than they expected for all of 2011. They also mentioned it was where they expected for Blu-ray's life cycle and that they both saw that optical disc players would be around for many years to come.

Let me get this straight. And I believe you BTW FWIW. Slightly better than they expected at 8% growth? This is with player prices at an all time low! So thier expectations were not very high for player sales growth. That seems to me they are expecting it to level off very soon. Sounds like they didn't expect much growth at all. Those numbers sound horrible!
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Old 02-03-2012, 03:05 PM   #1288  
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Not only that Sony revised downward yesterday the PS3 sales projections.

They also sold less worldwide this year than last year. The xbox now has sold more worldwide this year. A complete change that hardly anyone thought possible.
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Old 02-03-2012, 03:13 PM   #1289  
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Let me get this straight. And I believe you BTW FWIW. Slightly better than they expected at 8% growth? This is with player prices at an all time low! So thier expectations were not very high for player sales growth. That seems to me they are expecting it to level off very soon. Sounds like they didn't expect much growth at all. Those numbers sound horrible!
They said that Blu-ray player unit sales and revenues were better than expected for 2011 and for the holiday season for this point in its lifecycle. 4Q 2010 was a large jump in unit sales as the price points dropped to mass market price points and it was always anticipated that the 4Q gains this year would be more modest as 4Q 2010 was already high. The overall 2011 sales rate was higher for Blu-ray players for both units and revenues than the holiday to holiday comparison.

They both made a point in stating that comments that optical disc is going away anytime soon are nonsense as Blu-ray will be around for a long time and that having streaming applications in most Blu-ray players now make them a great consumer value and will ensure increasing Blu-ray sales and a larger Blu-ray hardware ownership base for some years to come.
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Old 02-03-2012, 04:09 PM   #1290  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
They said that Blu-ray player unit sales and revenues were better than expected for 2011 and for the holiday season for this point in its lifecycle. 4Q 2010 was a large jump in unit sales as the price points dropped to mass market price points and it was always anticipated that the 4Q gains this year would be more modest as 4Q 2010 was already high. The overall 2011 sales rate was higher for Blu-ray players for both units and revenues than the holiday to holiday comparison.

They both made a point in stating that comments that optical disc is going away anytime soon are nonsense as Blu-ray will be around for a long time and that having streaming applications in most Blu-ray players now make them a great consumer value and will ensure increasing Blu-ray sales and a larger Blu-ray hardware ownership base for some years to come.
2009 BD sell thru growth = 70%

2010 BD sell thru growth = 68%

2011 BD sell thru growth = 20%

2012 BD sell thru growth YTD= 7%
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