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Optical (Blu-ray/DVD) and Digital (EST/UV) Sales Thread

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Old 11-08-2011, 12:25 PM   #106  
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Plus the fact that Pirates fans would want to complete their collection. It had that going for it as well. All things considered. I wonder what the excuses are on other forums? .

BTW. I never understood the love for this franchise. I wanted to like it so bad. Could never get into it. It was missing something from the very first movie. Can't put my finger on it. I do not own one copy. Saw the first two at screeners at disney as I have relitives that were involved in them. Fell asleep during the first one. eye candy for sure though. Just no substance. I need substance.
I did enjoy the first one enough for what it was (popcorn movie) to watch the second one.

Then I was done. :-)
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Old 11-08-2011, 12:51 PM   #107  
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Kosty will have tons of excuses I am sure.
I too am curious on the numbers.

If the TN has a similar unit marketshare to NV for Captain America then that would put POTC4 attrition at -76.75% from its reported first week sales.

Using 1,531,256 BD units for Captain America translates into 2,801,312 Top 20 BD units of which 154,801 would be the higher priced Jurassic Park skus.

Even with that would be between last week and the Lion King/ Fast Five release week in Top 20 BD units plus the revenues from Sunday sales of POTC the week before and the extra revenues from the price point of the Jurassic Park Trilogy.

All of that changes a bit if the TN Blu-ray unit marketshare for Captain America is off by a few percentage points as well.
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Old 11-08-2011, 01:01 PM   #108  
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The Numbers also reports Winnie The Pooh at $3,390,196, and it had almost a direct 50/50 split for DVD and BD.

Assuming revenue for DVD and BD are about equal for WTP, then Captain America will come in just under $30 million for Blu-ray.

Which again points to a week of right around $60 million for BD as I predicted when the ratios were first released.

Last edited by PSound; 11-08-2011 at 01:04 PM..
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Old 11-08-2011, 01:24 PM   #109  
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The Top 10 BD units is also very sensitive to the units estimate for Captain America this week as the#2-6 positions did substantial units. Just a 2% change in the BD marketshare for captain America results in a calculation of 1.7 Captain America BD units and 3.4 M BD Top 20 units with an amount being premium priced Jurassic Park skus.

The Top 20 BD units are very sensitive this week to the unit estimate of the leading title and in this calculation to the estimate for the Blu-ray unit marketshare for Captain America.
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Old 11-08-2011, 01:35 PM   #110  
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I wonder what the excuses are on other forums? .
Same old story.

Bad performance numbers met with "it was as expected" and "not disappointing" and still "pointing to positive in the future" blah, blah, blah.

Just like solid performance is met with "clear sign of trends", "on course", etc.


In other words... bad performance weeks (or quarters or halves) are dismissed as anomalies while good performance periods are heralded as the norm or the trend.


The truth is that any particular period or week is going to be impacted by the relative strength of releases, both new release and catalog as well as seasonal period and needs to be viewed in that light.

The only recent anomaly to that was the POTC week which significantly underperformed for OD based on the mammoth improvement in TBO in the comparison weeks. In that case, money was definitely left on the table compared to what would have occurred in the week/week comparison if a DVD had been released.


The DVD release of POTC will help in a future week, but there is zero doubt that POTC underperformed for Home Video comparison based on box office lead-in strength.


As I have pointed out before, late Q3 and early Q4 saw a plethora of unusual strength of releases in both catalog and new titles. Such that post 11/11 week will likely be down in release strength for the rest of the year.
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Old 11-08-2011, 02:44 PM   #111  
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MW3 is out now for all the gamers. Skyrim also releases this friday as well. Both huge games. Oh and the Halo HD remake comes out on next Tues. That is gonna take a toll as games come first and formost while the bd buying will take a back seat.
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Old 11-08-2011, 03:38 PM   #112  
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Same here. Don't care for the Pirates movies at all. But then Disney movies in general are geared more for kids so that probably has a lot to do with it.
Well even my kids didn't think much about them. And they were in thier early to mid teens at the time. I guess I raised them right. They would much prefer to watch one of the Indy movies or an 80s classic like 16 Candles or the Goonies. They even think the Twilight series is trash. We laugh at the horrible acting.
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Old 11-08-2011, 04:34 PM   #113  
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HMM numbers are up for week ending 10/29:

Blu-ray: $50.49M, +115.6%, 34% share
DVD: $99.66M, -11.6%

OD: $147.15M, +11.5%


Another up week for OD, but then it should be up with a huge YoY box office differential.

Blu-ray looks to be about right, but if anything a little under projections.

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/

Last edited by bruceames; 11-08-2011 at 04:50 PM..
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Old 11-08-2011, 04:37 PM   #114  
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Well even my kids didn't think much about them. And they were in thier early to mid teens at the time. I guess I raised them right. They would much prefer to watch one of the Indy movies or an 80s classic like 16 Candles or the Goonies. They even think the Twilight series is trash. We laugh at the horrible acting.
You got some smart kids. Those are nice to have. I never had any of my own but have 3 of my wife's kids living with me. I can't complain.
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Old 11-08-2011, 04:39 PM   #115  
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MW3 is out now for all the gamers. Skyrim also releases this friday as well. Both huge games. Oh and the Halo HD remake comes out on next Tues. That is gonna take a toll as games come first and formost while the bd buying will take a back seat.
I think it's been taking a toll the last several years, ever since the 360 came out. I don't think it's a coincidence that OD sales started to decline around that time. Of course, it's only a part of the reason for the decline, but significant nonetheless. As you say, there's only so much green to go around, and games aren't cheap.
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Old 11-08-2011, 04:44 PM   #116  
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I too am curious on the numbers.

If the TN has a similar unit marketshare to NV for Captain America then that would put POTC4 attrition at -76.75% from its reported first week sales.

Using 1,531,256 BD units for Captain America translates into 2,801,312 Top 20 BD units of which 154,801 would be the higher priced Jurassic Park skus.

Even with that would be between last week and the Lion King/ Fast Five release week in Top 20 BD units plus the revenues from Sunday sales of POTC the week before and the extra revenues from the price point of the Jurassic Park Trilogy.

All of that changes a bit if the TN Blu-ray unit marketshare for Captain America is off by a few percentage points as well.
I was thinking about 1.5 milion for CA, based on a normal attrition for POTC4. It looks like that will turn out to be the case, except the attrition being even worse for Pirates 4. Now with HMM reporting only $50 million for that week, it bears out that it wasn't as strong a seller as Pirates. Nor it should have been, given one was exclusive and the other wasn't.
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Old 11-08-2011, 04:54 PM   #117  
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It looks like BLu-ray is trending toward a 35% share for the quarter. The average share for the first 3 quarters was just over 20%. The format always makes it market share jumps in Q4 and then it remains relatively flat until the next 4th quarter. The main reason for this is because Blu-ray is highly dependent on top 20 sales, which typically do a much better share, and the best movies are released in that quarter. The average share for the first 3 quarters was around 35%, but so far it's well over 50% and probably closer to 60%.

It will be interesting to see the effect this latest jump has on the DVD attrition rate and on OD performance.
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Old 11-08-2011, 04:54 PM   #118  
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Looks like I was $10 million too high!

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Old 11-08-2011, 04:59 PM   #119  
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The Numbers also reports Winnie The Pooh at $3,390,196, and it had almost a direct 50/50 split for DVD and BD.

Assuming revenue for DVD and BD are about equal for WTP, then Captain America will come in just under $30 million for Blu-ray.

Which again points to a week of right around $60 million for BD as I predicted when the ratios were first released.
Your HMM prediction was optimistic by about $10 million.
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Old 11-08-2011, 05:43 PM   #120  
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Your HMM prediction was optimistic by about $10 million.
Yep.

I really didn't think it would be that low this week. Not with the second week of POTC4 and Captain America.

Next week will probably be a dip both in revenue and comparisons, followed by a jump due to HP 7 pt 2.


After that is when things will get interesting and less predictable.
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