High Def Forum - Your High Definition Community & High Definition Resource

Go Back   High Def Forum - Your High Definition Community & High Definition Resource >
Rules HDTV Forum Gallery LINK TO US! RSS - High Def Forum AddThis Feed Button AddThis Social Bookmark Button Groups

High Definition Media A place to discuss BD and UHD Content from physical and digital media

Like Tree255Likes

Optical (Blu-ray/DVD) and Digital (EST/UV) Sales Thread

Reply
AddThis Social Bookmark Button
 
Thread Tools
Old 11-06-2011, 07:48 PM   #91  
High Definition is the definition of life.
 
Malanthius's Avatar
 

Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 843
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by chipvideo View Post
I think Rise of the Planet of the Apes will do big.
Same here. Great movie and respectable addition to one of my favorite movie lines. You forget you are watching CGI apes.
Malanthius is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-06-2011, 07:51 PM   #92  
High Definition is the definition of life.
 
Malanthius's Avatar
 

Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 843
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by PSound View Post
Yes.

And I agree with your other post.

Blu-ray growth post 11/11 is going to depend deeply on longer tail new release performance and Blu-ray cannibalization of DVD.

I am less confident of the cannibalization rate for the rest of Q4 after the horrendous performance of POTC with the exclusive BD window. I do expect the cannibalization to continue and for BD's growth to be fueled by the continued decline of DVD, but the POTC 4 numbers indicates to me that consumers are going to drive that trend at their own pace.

At this point, that pace means that Blu-ray will continually be growing into an overall declining market.


I mentioned this before, but as Blu-ray hits the >50% market share point then you can judge BD on it's ability to grow the OD market.
Great point. Bluray is close to shooting it's virtual wad so to speak. After Star Wars and Jurrasic Park? What other big catalog releases are there? Just Indiana Jones really. Bluray has sucked big time in catalog sales. Too bad really.
Malanthius is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-06-2011, 08:10 PM   #93  
High Definition is the definition of life.
 

Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 1,749
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Malanthius View Post
Great point. Bluray is close to shooting it's virtual wad so to speak. After Star Wars and Jurrasic Park? What other big catalog releases are there? Just Indiana Jones really. Bluray has sucked big time in catalog sales. Too bad really.
Yep.

Blu-ray really pulled out some big guns, both in catalog and summer releases, in late Q3 and early Q4.

What happens after 11/11 week will be the story for the year. If Blu-ray can post the same growth in did in late Q3 and the early Q4, then the year will be salvaged and there might be more room left in the middle of the s-curve.

If it drops down to ~ 20% (or less) post 11/11 week, then we can probably start to see where the BD ceiling will be.
PSound is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-06-2011, 11:32 PM   #94  
High Definition is the definition of life.
 
Malanthius's Avatar
 

Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 843
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by PSound View Post
Yep.

Blu-ray really pulled out some big guns, both in catalog and summer releases, in late Q3 and early Q4.

What happens after 11/11 week will be the story for the year. If Blu-ray can post the same growth in did in late Q3 and the early Q4, then the year will be salvaged and there might be more room left in the middle of the s-curve.

If it drops down to ~ 20% (or less) post 11/11 week, then we can probably start to see where the BD ceiling will be.
that's the way I see it as well. I think 2012 may be the last year we see positive YOY growth. Who knows. Maybe 2013 will squeeze out a single digit year? But even if. It looks like Bluray is going to fall way short of even VHS. Ill be amazed to see that.
Malanthius is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-07-2011, 12:58 AM   #95  
Steelbook Addict
 
chipvideo's Avatar
 

Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 678
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Malanthius View Post
that's the way I see it as well. I think 2012 may be the last year we see positive YOY growth. Who knows. Maybe 2013 will squeeze out a single digit year? But even if. It looks like Bluray is going to fall way short of even VHS. Ill be amazed to see that.
Hopfully blu-ray will get good support for the next 10 years. It might take that long for some of the great 80's movies.
chipvideo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-07-2011, 10:07 PM   #96  
Super Moderator
Thread Starter
 
bruceames's Avatar
 

Join Date: May 2006
Location: Novato, CA
Posts: 17,125
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Malanthius View Post
that's the way I see it as well. I think 2012 may be the last year we see positive YOY growth. Who knows. Maybe 2013 will squeeze out a single digit year? But even if. It looks like Bluray is going to fall way short of even VHS. Ill be amazed to see that.
That sounds about right. Probably 1-2 years more of growth and then a steady decline. The studios are pulling out of the stops to prop up Blu-ray growth as it is. Offering combo pack with a digital copy for around the same price single disc new release DVDs were back during the same period in its life cycle (2002). A lot of bang for your buck, and now catalog Blu-rays are dirt cheap. Heck a lot of them come out at 10 bucks and work their way down from there.
bruceames is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-07-2011, 10:13 PM   #97  
Super Moderator
Thread Starter
 
bruceames's Avatar
 

Join Date: May 2006
Location: Novato, CA
Posts: 17,125
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by chipvideo View Post
Hopfully blu-ray will get good support for the next 10 years. It might take that long for some of the great 80's movies.
It probably will. Blu-ray has been releasing catalog so far at only 1/3 the rate DVD was during comparable times in the lifespan. This year though catalog has picked up and has run of 1/2 of what DVD did during 2002. So it goes without saying that at the current pace it's going to take 2-3 times longer for Blu-ray to output what DVD did. And to make matters worse, Blu-ray has 9 more years of movies to release than DVD did. So it's going to be a recurring theme to most, that Blu-ray is taking forever to release some of their favorite movies.
bruceames is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-08-2011, 11:02 AM   #98  
Super Moderator
Thread Starter
 
bruceames's Avatar
 

Join Date: May 2006
Location: Novato, CA
Posts: 17,125
Default

The-Numbers reported 726k copies of Captain America DVD being sold, which would translate to 1.54 million Blu-ray, if the Nielsen BD ratio of 68% share is applied. So that would be less than Pirates 4 (Of course, The-Numbers units are high, but proportionally they probably usable to compare one set of high numbers to another.) It was believed by some that Captain America would sell over 2 million on Blu-ray and perhaps over 3 million.

That would make POTC4 at 401k, which is a big drop from 1.71 million the week before. We'll see what they post officially for the BD releases soon, and if they'll top HMM for the 8th week in a row.

Last edited by bruceames; 11-08-2011 at 11:06 AM..
bruceames is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-08-2011, 11:14 AM   #99  
High Definition is the definition of life.
 

Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 1,749
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
The-Numbers reported 726k copies of Captain America DVD being sold, which would translate to 1.54 million Blu-ray, if the Nielsen BD ratio of 68% share is applied. So that would be less than Pirates 4 (Of course, The-Numbers units are high, but proportionally they probably usable to compare one set of high numbers to another.) It was believed by some that Captain America would sell over 2 million on Blu-ray and perhaps over 3 million.

That would make POTC4 at 401k, which is a big drop from 1.71 million the week before. We'll see what they post officially for the BD releases soon, and if they'll top HMM for the 8th week in a row.
WoW!

Reality can be a bitch sometimes. Those are rough numbers, even before you apply the 30% Numbers fudge factor.
PSound is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-08-2011, 11:16 AM   #100  
High Definition is the definition of life.
 

Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 1,749
Default

Despite the recent hype, that would mean Captain America sold LESS than POTC4 on BD.
PSound is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-08-2011, 11:22 AM   #101  
Super Moderator
Thread Starter
 
bruceames's Avatar
 

Join Date: May 2006
Location: Novato, CA
Posts: 17,125
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by PSound View Post
Despite the recent hype, that would mean Captain America sold LESS than POTC4 on BD.
Yes, that would be the case if The-Numbers ratio of BDVD is close to Nielsen, which it should be. But seriously, POTC4 should be higher than Captain America, because it was a BD exclusive.
bruceames is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-08-2011, 11:42 AM   #102  
High Definition is the definition of life.
 

Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 1,749
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
Yes, that would be the case if The-Numbers ratio of BDVD is close to Nielsen, which it should be. But seriously, POTC4 should be higher than Captain America, because it was a BD exclusive.
Oh.. I agree that POTC should do higher than CA both because of the BD exclusive and the difference in TBO.

I was just talking about the hype from the OD promo machine stating CA was looking higher than POTC.
PSound is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-08-2011, 11:56 AM   #103  
High Definition is the definition of life.
 
Malanthius's Avatar
 

Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 843
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by PSound View Post
Oh.. I agree that POTC should do higher than CA both because of the BD exclusive and the difference in TBO.

I was just talking about the hype from the OD promo machine stating CA was looking higher than POTC.
Plus the fact that Pirates fans would want to complete their collection. It had that going for it as well. All things considered. I wonder what the excuses are on other forums? .

BTW. I never understood the love for this franchise. I wanted to like it so bad. Could never get into it. It was missing something from the very first movie. Can't put my finger on it. I do not own one copy. Saw the first two at screeners at disney as I have relitives that were involved in them. Fell asleep during the first one. eye candy for sure though. Just no substance. I need substance.
Malanthius is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-08-2011, 12:14 PM   #104  
Steelbook Addict
 
chipvideo's Avatar
 

Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 678
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by PSound View Post
Oh.. I agree that POTC should do higher than CA both because of the BD exclusive and the difference in TBO.

I was just talking about the hype from the OD promo machine stating CA was looking higher than POTC.
Kosty will have tons of excuses I am sure.
chipvideo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-08-2011, 12:17 PM   #105  
Super Moderator
Thread Starter
 
bruceames's Avatar
 

Join Date: May 2006
Location: Novato, CA
Posts: 17,125
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Malanthius View Post
Plus the fact that Pirates fans would want to complete their collection. It had that going for it as well. All things considered. I wonder what the excuses are on other forums? .

BTW. I never understood the love for this franchise. I wanted to like it so bad. Could never get into it. It was missing something from the very first movie. Can't put my finger on it. I do not own one copy. Saw the first two at screeners at disney as I have relitives that were involved in them. Fell asleep during the first one. eye candy for sure though. Just no substance. I need substance.

Same here. Don't care for the Pirates movies at all. But then Disney movies in general are geared more for kids so that probably has a lot to do with it.
bruceames is offline   Reply With Quote
Sponsored Links
Go Back   High Def Forum - Your High Definition Community & High Definition Resource >
AddThis Social Bookmark Button
Reply

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off



All times are GMT -6. The time now is 12:45 PM.



Copyright ©2000 - 2019, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright 2004 - 2018, MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands