High Def Forum - Your High Definition Community & High Definition Resource

Go Back   High Def Forum - Your High Definition Community & High Definition Resource >
Rules HDTV Forum Gallery LINK TO US! RSS - High Def Forum AddThis Feed Button AddThis Social Bookmark Button Groups

High Definition Media A place to discuss BD and UHD Content from physical and digital media

Like Tree259Likes

Optical (Blu-ray/DVD) and Digital (EST/UV) Sales Thread

Reply
AddThis Social Bookmark Button
 
Thread Tools
Old 01-10-2012, 10:08 AM   #976  
High Definition is the definition of life.
 

Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 1,749
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by chipvideo View Post
Not a good year for the format. I really want to see them breakout the numbers with sales and rentals.
I think that is going to be critical.

I am particularly curious about how/where streaming got counted and what disc rentals looked like for the full year.
PSound is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-10-2012, 10:10 AM   #977  
Steelbook Addict
 
chipvideo's Avatar
 

Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 678
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by PSound View Post
I think that is going to be critical.

I am particularly curious about how/where streaming got counted and what disc rentals looked like for the full year.
I expected rental income to be flat because of the continued closures of Block Buster and the rise of the rental kiosks.

With that said I wonder what the YOY growth for Blu-ray was with rentals. 17% or less?
chipvideo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-10-2012, 10:17 AM   #978  
High Definition is the definition of life.
 

Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 1,749
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by chipvideo View Post
I expected rental income to be flat because of the continued closures of Block Buster and the rise of the rental kiosks.
Me too.

But I am thinking that in addition to ODs massive drop in sales, we may also be seeing a pretty significant drop in OD rentals.

Last year VOD was what pushed growth for rentals. And it was unclear how Netflix revenue was accounted for last year. If it was split between OD and VOD, then both will be down this year as a result. If was all OD, then OD rental could be down sharply in Q4 and the first half of 2012 greatly negatively affected for OD rental.
PSound is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-10-2012, 10:20 AM   #979  
High Definition is the definition of life.
 

Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 509
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by PSound View Post
Last year VOD was what pushed growth for rentals.
This year it isn't. With horribly low 7% growth from 2010. I guess VOD is peaking, which is weird, cause I've been told tablets and such are selling like hotcakes...all of those tablets offer VOD rentals.

To only get 7% growth is a failure for the industry.
bombsnizzle is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-10-2012, 10:50 AM   #980  
High Definition is the definition of life.
 
Malanthius's Avatar
 

Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 843
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by bombsnizzle View Post
Like single digit growth for EST?

Single. digit. growth.

Even more alarming is how none of you have yet to acknowledge EST sales being slowed to single digit growth.

You keep bypassing the information, as if it doesn't exist, because you don't want to discuss negative EST news.

You only want to discuss negative bluray news.

Which is quite biased and cowardly IMO.
Let's discuss it then. EST sales suck. Yes they do. But then they were not created to replace the collapse of the DVD market. That was Blurays job. That's where the marketing went to. Not EST. physical was the meat and potatoes for the industry. Not EST. so really who gives a shit? Only the ones that don't like hearing about Blurays failure to save the physical market. Naturally the focus is going to be on Bluray.

Hey the automotive market is down! Let's talk about motorcycle sales everyone! Stop talking about cars! Talk about motorcycles because I love cars! <<< that's you BTW.
Malanthius is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-10-2012, 11:00 AM   #981  
High Definition is the definition of life.
 

Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 509
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Malanthius View Post
Let's discuss it then. EST sales suck. Yes they do. But then they were not created to replace the collapse of the DVD market. That was Blurays job. That's where the marketing went to. Not EST. physical was the meat and potatoes for the industry. Not EST. so really who gives a shit? Only the ones that don't like hearing about Blurays failure to save the physical market. Naturally the focus is going to be on Bluray.
Actually anything created after DVD was intended to replace the older technology (DVD) in some form. Thats...kind of the point of new technology.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Malanthius View Post
Hey the automotive market is down! Let's talk about motorcycle sales everyone! Stop talking about cars! Talk about motorcycles because I love cars! <<< that's you BTW.
No. You talk about everything because everything exists and tries to contribute. In 2011, in terms of growth, EST was less than bluray. Both had less growth than in 2011. EST is available on more devices, and comprises both HD and SD content. Bluray players are backwards compatible with DVD. There are tens of little caveats and distinctions to make. Things aren't as simple as you like to make them.
bombsnizzle is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-10-2012, 11:00 AM   #982  
Steelbook Addict
 
chipvideo's Avatar
 

Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 678
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by PSound View Post
Me too.

But I am thinking that in addition to ODs massive drop in sales, we may also be seeing a pretty significant drop in OD rentals.

Last year VOD was what pushed growth for rentals. And it was unclear how Netflix revenue was accounted for last year. If it was split between OD and VOD, then both will be down this year as a result. If was all OD, then OD rental could be down sharply in Q4 and the first half of 2012 greatly negatively affected for OD rental.
So is the deg not breaking out rentals of physical? They trying to hide everything now?
chipvideo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-10-2012, 11:18 AM   #983  
High Definition is the definition of life.
 

Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 1,749
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by chipvideo View Post
So is the deg not breaking out rentals of physical? They trying to hide everything now?
We will see.

If they continue how they have reported recently, we should get the consumer spending chart which will show B&M and kiosk rental specifics, as well as the split between physical subscription and streaming subscription.

My guess is that when we compare the data from end of Q3 and end of 2010 to the 2011 EOY data, that subscription streaming is going to be a primary catalyst for growth in Q4 2011.

Indeed, we might even see Total Rental (excluding VOD) be negative comparing Q4 unless the DEG significantly revises 2010 Q4 rental numbers.
PSound is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-10-2012, 12:01 PM   #984  
Muscle Cars Forever!
 
Lee Stewart's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 47,283
Default

Quote:
While overall spending on packaged media and digital delivery was down 2% for the year to an estimated $18.04 billion, down from $18.43 billion in 2010, a 20% jump in Blu-ray spending and a 51% jump in digital spending point to a sustained recovery for the industry, DEG reported.
Quote:
Annual spending on Blu-ray software hit $2 billion for the first time, and Blu-ray players are now in nearly 40 million homes, a 38% rise from 2010. Electronic sellthrough spending was up 9% for the year, while VOD saw a 7% rise. 3D Blu-ray Disc unit sales were up sixfold year-over-year.
Quote:
Total consumer spending on packaged media, Blu-ray and DVD, slipped slightly more than 13% to $8.95 billion from $10.52 billion in 2010. Rental spending (packaged media only) was down 3% to $7.54 billion from $7.6 billion the previous year, with a 28.8% drop in brick-and-mortar rental activity offset by a 31% uptick in the kiosk rental business, mostly Redbox vending machines.
Quote:
But those declines are to be expected, observers say, as consumers transition to digital delivery, mostly streaming. Overall spending on digital delivery rose 51% to nearly $3.42 billion, up from $2.26 billion in 2010. The largest chunk of that went to VOD ($1.87 billion) and the new category of subscription streaming ($993.6 million), while electronic sellthrough remained a nonstarter at $553.7 million.
http://www.homemediamagazine.com/mar...ift-2011-26070
Lee Stewart is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-10-2012, 12:19 PM   #985  
High Definition is the definition of life.
 

Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 509
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lee Stewart View Post
The largest chunk of that went to VOD ($1.87 billion) and the new category of subscription streaming ($993.6 million), while electronic sellthrough remained a nonstarter at $553.7 million.
http://www.homemediamagazine.com/mar...ift-2011-26070
DEG reported $683M EST in 2010.

And now $553.7M for EST in 2011?

So -$129.3M for EST in 2011? But yet 9% growth? Um...huh?

So apparently EST in 2010 was really about $508M, because otherwise that 9% growth is bullshit.

So the downward revision that satisfies 9% EST growth for 2011 is that instead of $683M in 2010...it was really $508M. Clearly a mere miscalculation of $175M. Only like, you know, a 25% miscalculation. That's all.

So...do we still trust DEG?

Last edited by bombsnizzle; 01-10-2012 at 12:25 PM..
bombsnizzle is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-10-2012, 12:21 PM   #986  
Steelbook Addict
 
chipvideo's Avatar
 

Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 678
Default

So packaged media sales are down $1.5 billion. I expect more layoffs in Hollywood.

I also expect studios to spend less on restoring movies to put on blu-ray. Oh well. Too bad.

At least I have gaming which just keeps on getting better every year as far as quality goes. Can't wait for the next generation of gaming. Bring it on!!!

Last edited by chipvideo; 01-10-2012 at 12:24 PM..
chipvideo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-10-2012, 12:33 PM   #987  
Super Moderator
Thread Starter
 
bruceames's Avatar
 

Join Date: May 2006
Location: Novato, CA
Posts: 17,126
Default

So when are going to see the actual DEG report? I want to see that table that they've started publishing this year. Also, I'm getting dizzy from all these revisions. Now last year's $18.8 billion is $18.4 billion? Seems like a revision history chart is almost as essential as the actual reports themselves.

And down only 2% because they added in nearly $1 billion in subscription streaming is ridiculous. For my own purposes, I'm going to ignore the streaming revenue and consider just what they had been including all along (sales and rentals).

Apples to apples, home entertainment (sales + rental) revenue is actually down 7.5%. $17.05 billion this year (no subscription streaming) vs. $18.43 last year. At least that makes mathematical sense.

Last edited by bruceames; 01-10-2012 at 12:39 PM..
bruceames is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-10-2012, 12:45 PM   #988  
High Definition is the definition of life.
 

Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 1,749
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
So when are going to see the actual DEG report? I want to see that table that they've started publishing this year. Also, I'm getting dizzy from all these revisions. Now last year's $18.8 billion is $18.4 billion? Seems like a revision history chart is almost as essential as the actual reports themselves.

And down only 2% because they added in nearly $1 billion in subscription streaming is ridiculous. For my own purposes, I'm going to ignore the streaming revenue and consider just what they had been including all along (sales and rentals).
The subscription streaming revenue is all they have.

They stated that "consumer spending" was up 1% in H2. That is despite OD sell through being down some $440 million in H2 and it certainly looks like OD rental was down in H2. It was already down ~ $35 million in Q3 before the impact that Netflix accounting was sure to have on Q4.

VOD and EST made up some of that, but likely not more than $100 million in H2.

That means that they absolutely need the subscription streaming revenue for H2 to not be down drastically. $993.6 million in for the year (and remember that the DEG did not start splitting that out until Q3). Which means that was all likely calculated as coming in H2.

Without subscription streaming, the DEG and the industry have nearly a billion dollar hole in H2 alone.
PSound is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-10-2012, 12:48 PM   #989  
Steelbook Addict
 
chipvideo's Avatar
 

Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 678
Default

So they are adding in streaming as revenue now. That needs an astertic as it is not the way we count home video revenue. That would be like adding in cable tv to the revenue. They are trying to hide the fall in Hollywood IMO.
chipvideo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-10-2012, 12:52 PM   #990  
High Definition is the definition of life.
 

Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 1,749
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by chipvideo View Post
So they are adding in streaming as revenue now. That needs an astertic as it is not the way we count home video revenue. That would be like adding in cable tv to the revenue. They are trying to hide the fall in Hollywood IMO.
I expect them to continue the trend.

If HBO Go goes OTT, they will add that revenue too!
PSound is offline   Reply With Quote
Sponsored Links
Go Back   High Def Forum - Your High Definition Community & High Definition Resource >
AddThis Social Bookmark Button
Reply

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off



All times are GMT -6. The time now is 12:46 PM.



Copyright ©2000 - 2019, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright 2004 - 2018, MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands