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Optical (Blu-ray/DVD) and Digital (EST/UV) Sales Thread

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Old 01-04-2012, 07:01 PM   #901  
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Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
I think you are misreading something there.

HMM is still reporting that DVD revenues for the new revised matching 2010 week was $443.55 M a revision of only a tiny $1.17 M.

The Blu-ray figures for that matching week were revised slightly upward from $109.27 M to $111.08 M which makes the Blu-ray YoY gain slightly smaller.




The new DVD week this year for 12/24/11 was $368.59 M.

The revised figures are :

12/25/2010 OD $554.63

12/24/2011 OD $482.11
You're right, I was reading the $368.59 figure as last year's DVD total. Thanks for the correction.

Nevertheless, the DVD revisions for Q4 and for 2011 as a whole have been downwards by about 10%, which was the main point I was trying to make.
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Old 01-04-2012, 07:07 PM   #902  
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4 of of the last 6 weeks in the high volume holiday sales period had significant box office strength disparities in favor of 2010.

That is also a factor as well.

The total yearly total box office disparity is still -853.3 million in favor of 2010 through 51/52 weeks down -7.96%.

We are both tracking Blu-ray revenues at about 19% up in the cumulative weekly YoY HMM tracking statistics.
The box office strength affects sales no differently in the high volume weeks as in any other time of year. The difference in the high volume weeks is purely seasonal sales.

For example HP7.2 likely would have sold just as many units in April as it did in November. A little checking in historical sales on individual titles, with similar box office power, will bear that out.

Box office in Q4 has been down only 5.2% when you consider all 12 weeks.

And box office since Q1 has been flat.
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Old 01-04-2012, 07:11 PM   #903  
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During 2011 as a whole Blu-ray continued to increase its share of the physical disc market, as volume sales rose 18.4% year on year to 15.3 million units, producing a total value of 222.8 million, which is 13% of all physical disc sales.
Thanks for the article Mike.

So it looks like things have slowed down across the pond as well. BD up 18.4% YoY for 2011 has a familiar ring to it. It's 18.7% here according to HMM.

Still BD has a relatively small market share over there: 13% vs. 23.2% in the U.S. Not a good sign to have both growth and market share in the teens.
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Old 01-04-2012, 07:39 PM   #904  
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Thanks for the article Mike.

So it looks like things have slowed down across the pond as well. BD up 18.4% YoY for 2011 has a familiar ring to it. It's 18.7% here according to HMM.

Still BD has a relatively small market share over there: 13% vs. 23.2% in the U.S. Not a good sign to have both growth and market share in the teens.
Blu-ray adoption is about a year behind the US in the British and European markets.
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Old 01-04-2012, 07:44 PM   #905  
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Blu-ray adoption is about a year behind the US in the British and European markets.
Yeah I know. That's why I find it odd that the growth slowdown has already caught up with the U.S. 18.4% growth being a year behind the adoption curve is not very encouraging.

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Growth was seen in the value of Blu-ray, up 26.9% last month, while the nation’s favourite format, DVD, proved very much in demand throughout December, taking 87% share of physical disc sales worth 410.1 million, a rise in value of 6.0% on December 2010
Also I find it odd that DVD grew by 6% in December while Blu-ray grew only 26.9%. One would figure that if DVD is up, then Blu-ray should be way up. DVD still rules there and it looks to stay that way for a long time to come.

Last edited by bruceames; 01-04-2012 at 07:52 PM..
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Old 01-04-2012, 07:46 PM   #906  
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Vudu is distinct in that they have a fine offering and are exhibiting a solid growth trajectory.

EST is still in its infancy, and it would be foolish to ignore growth trends from an offering that is best of breed in quality and often times in pricing.
It made $21M on selling movies in 9 months in 2011. Vudu is on tens of millions of PS3s and bluray players and TVs.

As shown above bluray made over 5 times what Vudu made in 9 months in just one week, also as best in breed in quality. 5x times more in one week than in 9 whole months.

Vudu has been selling movies since 2008. How is it an infant?

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Old 01-04-2012, 07:57 PM   #907  
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Nielsen Top 20 sellers are up for the week ending 1/1/12, and the thing that immediately jumps out at you are the abnormally high BD shares on about 1/2 the titles. I remember the BD versions of those titles being on sale and especially cheap compared to the DVD, which in a few cases was $3 more than the Blu-ray.

So in any event, the results of those promotion are plainly evident, and so it looks like Blu-ray will be up next week in HMM, maybe by quite a bit.

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/top...k-ended-010112

Last edited by bruceames; 01-04-2012 at 08:00 PM..
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Old 01-04-2012, 08:35 PM   #908  
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Thats obvious with the price of the bd/dvd being cheaper than the bare bones dvd. Its like going shopping for a VW and they say "hey for $5K less you can have that same VW and a Porsche added in for free."
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Old 01-04-2012, 09:37 PM   #909  
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Thats obvious with the price of the bd/dvd being cheaper than the bare bones dvd. Its like going shopping for a VW and they say "hey for $5K less you can have that same VW and a Porsche added in for free."
It's pretty clear both Fox and Paramount overproduced their films and had to cut a deal to move that stock fast. Guess they thought they would move more units with all those new buyers...
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Old 01-04-2012, 11:01 PM   #910  
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Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
Nielsen Top 20 sellers are up for the week ending 1/1/12, and the thing that immediately jumps out at you are the abnormally high BD shares on about 1/2 the titles. I remember the BD versions of those titles being on sale and especially cheap compared to the DVD, which in a few cases was $3 more than the Blu-ray.

So in any event, the results of those promotion are plainly evident, and so it looks like Blu-ray will be up next week in HMM, maybe by quite a bit.

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/top...k-ended-010112
It will be interesting if that moves the watermark up for OD, or if this is simply more negative cannibalization for BD.
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Old 01-04-2012, 11:35 PM   #911  
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IT sounds to me that dvd will have a horendous week ending 31. Makes sense too. Selling bd's at a loss much cheaper than the dvd only version is a no brainer for individuals and companeis that rent OD. DVD is gonna be down Massive IMO. It will drag the entire OD with it.

The last thing that is on a persons list after opening their new ipad or tablet durring Christmas is buying a new movie on OD. They are concerned with what their first app is gonna be.
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Old 01-05-2012, 09:38 AM   #912  
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It made $21M on selling movies in 9 months in 2011. Vudu is on tens of millions of PS3s and bluray players and TVs.

As shown above bluray made over 5 times what Vudu made in 9 months in just one week, also as best in breed in quality. 5x times more in one week than in 9 whole months.

Vudu has been selling movies since 2008. How is it an infant?
It's infant because it isn't being promoted and never has been promoted the way DVD and Bluray are. I thought everyone knew this? Not hard to figure out. As physical continues its decline I expect we will see more of a push and advertising for VOD and streaming.
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Old 01-05-2012, 09:47 AM   #913  
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Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
The box office strength affects sales no differently in the high volume weeks as in any other time of year. The difference in the high volume weeks is purely seasonal sales.

For example HP7.2 likely would have sold just as many units in April as it did in November. A little checking in historical sales on individual titles, with similar box office power, will bear that out.

Box office in Q4 has been down only 5.2% when you consider all 12 weeks.

And box office since Q1 has been flat.
Was there not up and down years in the box office for DVD? There must have been. How did it affect that format? Oh wait! DVD actually had incredible growth.
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Old 01-05-2012, 09:52 AM   #914  
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It's infant because it isn't being promoted and never has been promoted the way DVD and Bluray are. I thought everyone knew this? Not hard to figure out. As physical continues its decline I expect we will see more of a push and advertising for VOD and streaming.
Indeed.

It goes even further than that. Even today, I still do not have a mechanism to spend EST dollars and get cross-industry support.

It is coming, but it is not here yet. If you think BD did poorly this year, can you imagine how bad it would be if there were multiple BD-like options? With incompatible discs/players from a variety of individual vendors?

I think the studios would be lucky to see even 20% of the already weak sell through revenue they saw from BD in 2011.
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Old 01-05-2012, 10:20 AM   #915  
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It's infant because it isn't being promoted and never has been promoted the way DVD and Bluray are. I thought everyone knew this? Not hard to figure out. As physical continues its decline I expect we will see more of a push and advertising for VOD and streaming.
I see tons of Netflix and "rent now on VOD - before Netflix and Redbox" commercials. I've seen them for years.

Vudu is advertised at Walmart. Do many people shop at Walmart?

The fact is Vudu has been selling movies since 2008. For some perspective - 2008 is the same year the format war ended. 2008 is the first year of mainstream Netflix streaming. 2008 is the first year iTunes added videos. Is bluray an infant? Netflix streaming? iTunes?

Vudu is on what 20M+ PS3s? And now about 30M xboxs? In addition to bluray players and TVs? And they even have an iOS app too right? I hear those iPads are quite popular...

Millions and millions of devices serve Vudu to people - and yet they sold $21M worth of videos in the first 9 months of 2011. There is no way that is good, even for a supposed "infant" that just happens to be on tens of millions of devices.
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