High Def Forum - Your High Definition Community & High Definition Resource

Go Back   High Def Forum - Your High Definition Community & High Definition Resource >
Rules HDTV Forum Gallery LINK TO US! RSS - High Def Forum AddThis Feed Button AddThis Social Bookmark Button Groups

High Definition Media A place to discuss BD and UHD Content from physical and digital media

Like Tree259Likes

Optical (Blu-ray/DVD) and Digital (EST/UV) Sales Thread

Reply
AddThis Social Bookmark Button
 
Thread Tools
Old 01-03-2012, 07:49 PM   #856  
Super Moderator
Thread Starter
 
bruceames's Avatar
 

Join Date: May 2006
Location: Novato, CA
Posts: 17,126
Default

Blu-ray YoY fell from 22% to 19.9% just from the results of this one week.

Next week YoY should be even worse than -10%, so it looks like the final HMM YoY will be around 17% or so. That would put the DEG estimate at about 20% YoY gain.

Last edited by bruceames; 01-03-2012 at 07:53 PM..
bruceames is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-03-2012, 07:53 PM   #857  
Super Moderator
Thread Starter
 
bruceames's Avatar
 

Join Date: May 2006
Location: Novato, CA
Posts: 17,126
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by PSound View Post
The PR spin has been consistent in that things always look better in the future (see list of 'PR flavor of the week' below), and then when the numbers don't meet expectations of the PR folks, then the list of excuses (see list of PR 'clean-up in aisle Blu' below) comes out to explain why the current disappointing numbers are still further signs that all is OK and the best is yet to come.


PR Flavor of the week (or, why things will look better in coming weeks)
  • Price Stability in BD is now set and Q4 will show that(AKA H1 2011 PR Flavor)
  • Units Matter (AKA - Holy Shit! Prices Declined again in Q4 2011)
  • Box Office Matters (AKA Q1 PR Flavor or 'OMG AVATAR MESSED IT ALL UP - WAH!!)
  • Box Office Doesn't Matter and Seasonality Will Win The Day (AKA Early Q4 Realization that BD had blown it's BD Wad in Late Q3 / Early Q4)
  • Box Office Matters Again (Late Q4 PR Spin Looking Ahead to.... It Doesn't Matter It Will Just Get Better - Trust Me)

Clean-up on Aisle Blu List
  • See PR Flavor of the week List Above


It has been a long year with plenty of spin so I am sure I may have missed something. Please feel free to add to the list.
I agree that there has been plenty of spin on why Blu-ray is underperforming. If next week doesn't break $90 million (and there's a good chance of that happening), then I can't see how you could say it's been a good year for Blu-ray, when the best week of the year was $20 million less than last year's best week.
bruceames is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-03-2012, 07:58 PM   #858  
High Definition is the definition of life.
 

Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 1,749
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
I agree that there has been plenty of spin on why Blu-ray is underperforming. If next week doesn't break $90 million (and there's a good chance of that happening), then I can't see how you could say it's been a good year for Blu-ray, when the best week of the year was $20 million less than last year's best week.
I guarantee you it will be spun as not surprising.... as not disappointing... and as a sign for greater things to come.

The actual results have done NOTHING to change that consistent PR spin. Indeed, the numbers have very little to do with those doing the PR push around everything being peachy keen for BD growth.
PSound is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-03-2012, 08:16 PM   #859  
Steelbook Addict
 
chipvideo's Avatar
 

Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 678
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by mikemorel View Post
Looks like blu-ray has shown an overall decline in YoY sales since week ending 11/19.
Yep. We called it. We knew it was gonna be bad for the holiday shopping season for blu-ray. A 50% jump in homes with blu-ray over last year and we go negative for the biggest shopping season in over 3 years. That is bucking the trend the wrong direction.

It tells me that consumers have said enough is enough with buying crap from the studios. Overpriced crap is overpriced crap.

I expect next year growth to be half of this year and then half again the following year. Basically 10% growth next year and then flat 5% growth the following year. The 5% is within margin of error so next year is basically the peak IMO while going sideways for a couple years then starting a decline as everyone moves onto the next big format.
chipvideo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-03-2012, 08:20 PM   #860  
Steelbook Addict
 
chipvideo's Avatar
 

Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 678
Default

So I guess that Star Wars is the only other title besides Avatar that has sold at least $100 Million on blu-ray. That was the whole reason for the big YOY % for the 3rd quarter.
chipvideo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-03-2012, 08:22 PM   #861  
Steelbook Addict
 
chipvideo's Avatar
 

Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 678
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
Blu-ray YoY fell from 22% to 19.9% just from the results of this one week.

Next week YoY should be even worse than -10%, so it looks like the final HMM YoY will be around 17% or so. That would put the DEG estimate at about 20% YoY gain.
Yep. We saw this one comming months ago. The format is only growing with the laggards that are renting instead of buying now. Thats just the way its gonna be. Consumers have gotten smart and decided they can buy an ipad or kindle and have all their free time using those instead of buying movies on a disc.

Sony is also gonna have a hard time with their new portable console as well. They are going up against tablets and smartphones. The hot thing is tablets and smartphones. Thats where we are spending all our money. Heck every two years you get to upgrade to the latest and greatest phone for $199 and its sold at a huge loss.

That another thing. The value you get out of a $199 smartphone these days are oustanding. Cant believe how good the camera has gotten on those things. It does everything else practically. I can't wait til my 2 years is up and I can upgrade to the windows 8 phone this fall.
chipvideo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-03-2012, 08:27 PM   #862  
Super Moderator
Thread Starter
 
bruceames's Avatar
 

Join Date: May 2006
Location: Novato, CA
Posts: 17,126
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by chipvideo View Post
Yep. We saw this one comming months ago. The format is only growing with the laggards that are renting instead of buying now. Thats just the way its gonna be. Consumers have gotten smart and decided they can buy an ipad or kindle and have all their free time using those instead of buying movies on a disc.
It's been a really bad year for OD sell-through. It's going to be down close to 15%, which would be an all time record for YoY decline.

That's why it's both comical and sad to read spin articles like "The Year of the Turnaround". Good grief...
bruceames is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-03-2012, 08:27 PM   #863  
High Definition is the definition of life.
 
Malanthius's Avatar
 

Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 843
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
Blu-ray YoY fell from 22% to 19.9% just from the results of this one week.

Next week YoY should be even worse than -10%, so it looks like the final HMM YoY will be around 17% or so. That would put the DEG estimate at about 20% YoY gain.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
I agree that there has been plenty of spin on why Blu-ray is underperforming. If next week doesn't break $90 million (and there's a good chance of that happening), then I can't see how you could say it's been a good year for Blu-ray, when the best week of the year was $20 million less than last year's best week.
Quote:
Originally Posted by PSound View Post
I guarantee you it will be spun as not surprising.... as not disappointing... and as a sign for greater things to come.

The actual results have done NOTHING to change that consistent PR spin. Indeed, the numbers have very little to do with those doing the PR push around everything being peachy keen for BD growth.
The pessimists got it right. Funny how that works out.

It's so funny. I see Mike being critisized for "only" posting the down week charts. It's funny because it's usually Lee or Mike that get to them because I guess someone was too busy or something?

Yes I expect more spin as well.
Malanthius is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-03-2012, 08:30 PM   #864  
Super Moderator
Thread Starter
 
bruceames's Avatar
 

Join Date: May 2006
Location: Novato, CA
Posts: 17,126
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by chipvideo View Post
So I guess that Star Wars is the only other title besides Avatar that has sold at least $100 Million on blu-ray. That was the whole reason for the big YOY % for the 3rd quarter.
Not sure, but I think TDK and Inception have probably sold more in revenue than Star Wars. But if you're counting just the first few months of release or so, then you're probably right. Those other titles would have had to have sold 4x to get the same revenue, and that means 4 million copies. I doubt that anything besides Avatar sold that much in the first 2 months of release.
bruceames is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-03-2012, 08:31 PM   #865  
Super Moderator
Thread Starter
 
bruceames's Avatar
 

Join Date: May 2006
Location: Novato, CA
Posts: 17,126
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Malanthius View Post
The pessimists got it right. Funny how that works out.

It's so funny. I see Mike being critisized for "only" posting the down week charts. It's funny because it's usually Lee or Mike that get to them because I guess someone was too busy or something?

Yes I expect more spin as well.
I prefer the term "realist" over pessimist (or D&Ger ), but I don't mind the nickname as long as I'm right.
bruceames is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-03-2012, 08:50 PM   #866  
High Definition is the definition of life.
 
GizmoDVD's Avatar
 

Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,114
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
I prefer the term "realist" over pessimist (or D&Ger ), but I don't mind the nickname as long as I'm right.
Man, were we ever right. This is a huge blow to the PR Camp who will no doubt be spinning the year as "Up is up!".
GizmoDVD is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-03-2012, 09:11 PM   #867  
High Definition is the definition of life.
 

Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 1,749
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by GizmoDVD View Post
Man, were we ever right. This is a huge blow to the PR Camp who will no doubt be spinning the year as "Up is up!".
Did you see that unit percentage growth! It was almost as high as projected PR camp revenue growth!



http://youtu.be/NJG75FJkjr8?t=4m17s
PSound is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-03-2012, 09:16 PM   #868  
High Definition is the definition of life.
 
GizmoDVD's Avatar
 

Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,114
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by PSound View Post
Did you see that unit percentage growth! It was almost as high as projected PR camp revenue growth!



http://youtu.be/NJG75FJkjr8?t=4m17s
Honestly, I feel really bad for some of the posters. They were pumping BD up all year, and making fun of the "doom and gloomers" but gees...we were right. Not sure what they will do. Probably regroup and start bashing HD DVD or something, but man...I really feel bad. Some of those guys had really high expectations for Blu-ray, but...it failed. There is no real way to say it. This type of growth for a format that is in year 6 (Or 4 for the folks who pretend BD didn't exist until after HD DVD) would be considered a downright failure.

I'm glad I have the movies I own. I'm sure I will buy more. I'm sure Blu-ray will continue to get pressed. But that does not change the fact that 2 billion in sales when studios have been bending over backwards to 'save' Blu-ray is beyond pathetic.

CES will bring us a ton of the usual PR reports where BD will be a "champion". We all can smell the BS, but regular consumers don't follow the numbers so they will eat it up. Little do they know that some studios are releasing so few catalog these days that one person could easily buy every Season of ER on DVD and not realize that one studio didn't even release that many catalog titles on Blu-ray in an entire year.
GizmoDVD is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-03-2012, 09:18 PM   #869  
High Definition is the definition of life.
 

Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 1,749
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by GizmoDVD View Post
Honestly, I feel really bad for some of the posters. They were pumping BD up all year, and making fun of the "doom and gloomers" but gees...we were right. Not sure what they will do. Probably regroup and start bashing HD DVD or something, but man...I really feel bad. Some of those guys had really high expectations for Blu-ray, but...it failed. There is no real way to say it. This type of growth for a format that is in year 6 (Or 4 for the folks who pretend BD didn't exist until after HD DVD) would be considered a downright failure.

I'm glad I have the movies I own. I'm sure I will buy more. I'm sure Blu-ray will continue to get pressed. But that does not change the fact that 2 billion in sales when studios have been bending over backwards to 'save' Blu-ray is beyond pathetic.

CES will bring us a ton of the usual PR reports where BD will be a "champion". We all can smell the BS, but regular consumers don't follow the numbers so they will eat it up. Little do they know that some studios are releasing so few catalog these days that one person could easily buy every Season of ER on DVD and not realize that one studio didn't even release that many catalog titles on Blu-ray in an entire year.
The latest PR strategy is to try and diss Digital when the facts of OD are presented.

It is getting near impossible to sustain the OD spin without looking like a fool. The numbers are too damning to directly discuss and dissect.
PSound is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-03-2012, 09:51 PM   #870  
High Definition is the definition of life.
 

Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 106
Default

"If next week doesn't break $90 million (and there's a good chance of that happening), then I can't see how you could say it's been a good year for Blu-ray"

There's no way Blu-ray did $90M. Box office power that week was about half what it was last year. Plus affecting the rest of the chart will be the fact that all of December is down 30%. When you look at the unit sales any week, it's obvious that releases matter. They don't matter AS much in December as they do in say September, but they definitely matter- especially when the disparity is 30-50%.

Last edited by cakefoo; 01-03-2012 at 09:55 PM..
cakefoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Sponsored Links
Go Back   High Def Forum - Your High Definition Community & High Definition Resource >
AddThis Social Bookmark Button
Reply

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off



All times are GMT -6. The time now is 05:48 PM.



Copyright ©2000 - 2019, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright 2004 - 2018, MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands