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Old 01-02-2012, 10:13 AM   #811  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lee Stewart View Post
From the Q3 2011 DEG Report:



If I am reading this chart correctly - about 18 million PS3s have been sold in the USA SID.

http://www.vgchartz.com/article/8845...-october-2011/

33.5 - 18 = 15.5 SAL and HTiB BD players sold SID through Q3 2011
Thanks Lee. So less than 1/2 of BD players were sold up till now than DVD players, or a ratio of 2.1:1 DVD/BD players.

In January 2009 CES they said that only 35% of the BD players were SA. 10.7 million BD + PS3 players were sold, vs. 5.4 million DVD players. Factoring out the PS3 would give 3.7 million BD SA players. So the ratio was actually less DVD back then: 1.46:1.

That means the sale of DVD players are accelerating compared to Blu-ray.
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Old 01-02-2012, 10:14 AM   #812  
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Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
Some of the things to look for next year is the base rate of routine sales for Blu-ray without any big releases in the Q1 Q2 Q3 period and how high the first couple weeks of bigger releases like Twilight: Breaking Dawn will be for Blu-ray revenues and Blu-ray revenue and unit marketshare and title marketshare.

Those are the kind of thing that will be effected by the increase in Blu-ray hardware owners and increased Blu-ray household penetration or promotional incidents like the POTC4 Disney Blu-ray combo only strategy with DVD only delay. Catalog Blu-ray sales and more inventory of Blu-ray titles should also be a result of a larger Blu-ray ownership base.
So there is not gonna be any big releases in the first 3 quarters of the year. Huh? You know this how?
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Old 01-02-2012, 10:24 AM   #813  
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So there is not gonna be any big releases in the first 3 quarters of the year. Huh? You know this how?
I think he meant to look for what the "floor" revenue (weeks with no good releases) will be in the coming year. Of course there will be big releases in the next 3 quarters.

Last year the floor was around $20 million (although a few weeks were less than that), let's see if it goes up to $25 million this year. After all, the DVD floor was around $95 million and the average BD share is around 24% now. I think the DVD floor will drop to $80 million.

Last edited by bruceames; 01-02-2012 at 10:35 AM..
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Old 01-02-2012, 10:29 AM   #814  
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Old 01-02-2012, 10:36 AM   #815  
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Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
I think he meant to look for what the "floor" revenue (weeks with no good releases) will be in the coming year. Of course there will be big releases in the next 3 quarters.

Last year the floor was around $20 million (although a few weeks were less than that), let's see if it goes up to $25 million this year. After all, the DVD floor was around $100 million and the average BD share is around 24% now.
I don't expect the floor to go up much. The floor is what I like to call the base. It is what I saw wrong in blu-ray in 2010. I pointed it out to Kosty in his charts that the base was failing to find a bottom all the way to the 3rd quarter. This is when it was obvious there was weakness in the routine base sales.

One thing is for sure. The first couple quarters this year for comparison shouldn't be too hard as last years first two quarters sucked bigtime as far as sales went.
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Old 01-02-2012, 10:42 AM   #816  
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Originally Posted by chipvideo View Post
I don't expect the floor to go up much. The floor is what I like to call the base. It is what I saw wrong in blu-ray in 2010. I pointed it out to Kosty in his charts that the base was failing to find a bottom all the way to the 3rd quarter. This is when it was obvious there was weakness in the routine base sales.

One thing is for sure. The first couple quarters this year for comparison shouldn't be too hard as last years first two quarters sucked bigtime as far as sales went.
The 3rd quarter is typically the worst of the year, followed by Q2, Q1 and Q4. That's why you see a few Q3 weekly revenues falling below the base set in Q1-2.
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Old 01-02-2012, 10:45 AM   #817  
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One thing is for sure. The first couple quarters this year for comparison shouldn't be too hard as last years first two quarters sucked bigtime as far as sales went.
It would be pretty bad indeed if Blu-ray had modest gains in the first half of this year, considering the gains were also modest last year during that time. It should be fairly easy to improve upon Q1-2 2011, but a lot depends on what gets released.

I'm also wondering if the rate of catalog will continue to be as it was.
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Old 01-02-2012, 11:00 AM   #818  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lee Stewart View Post
From the Q3 2011 DEG Report:



If I am reading this chart correctly - about 18 million PS3s have been sold in the USA SID.

http://www.vgchartz.com/article/8845...-october-2011/

33.5 - 18 = 15.5 SAL and HTiB BD players sold SID through Q3 2011
This blog has been tracking PS3 sales pretty closely as well. Their cumulative NPD sales through November 2011:

PS3: 900,000 (Total: 18.9 million)

Game Consoles – November 2011 NPD Sales Figure Analysis

Through September it was 17.7 million

http://www.digital-digest.com/blog/D...gure-analysis/
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Old 01-02-2012, 11:15 AM   #819  
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According to this chart, about 10 million PS2 consoles were sold by summer 2002, 11.3 million by the end of September, 16 million by the end of 2002, and 22 million at EOY 2003 So if we were to include console sales, then the total would be (to end of Q3 2011, 5.25 years into launch)

DVD: 33 million SA + 10 million PS2 = 43 million

Blu-ray: 15.8 million SA + 17.7 million PS3 = 33.5 million

A ratio of 1.28:1 in favor of DVD players.

Last edited by bruceames; 01-02-2012 at 11:21 AM..
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Old 01-02-2012, 12:27 PM   #820  
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Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
According to this chart, about 10 million PS2 consoles were sold by summer 2002, 11.3 million by the end of September, 16 million by the end of 2002, and 22 million at EOY 2003 So if we were to include console sales, then the total would be (to end of Q3 2011, 5.25 years into launch)

DVD: 33 million SA + 10 million PS2 = 43 million

Blu-ray: 15.8 million SA + 17.7 million PS3 = 33.5 million

A ratio of 1.28:1 in favor of DVD players.
33.5 million is pretty good considering more than half of BD's life has been lived in the biggest economic crisis since the early 1940s.
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Old 01-02-2012, 12:40 PM   #821  
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33.5 million is pretty good considering more than half of BD's life has been lived in the biggest economic crisis since the early 1940s.
Not bad Goofnut, and now that the crisis is over, we should SA player sales jump even more in the near future, over what they would have otherwise.
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Old 01-02-2012, 01:16 PM   #822  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lee Stewart View Post
From the Q3 2011 DEG Report:



If I am reading this chart correctly - about 18 million PS3s have been sold in the USA SID.

http://www.vgchartz.com/article/8845...-october-2011/

33.5 - 18 = 15.5 SAL and HTiB BD players sold SID through Q3 2011
Its not that simple I am afraid.

Some homes have both a Blu-ray player and a PS3 and some homes have multiple Blu-ray players.

The 33 M figure was Households with a Blu-ray Player + Households with a PS3 player - Blu-ray Players that are in multiple households - Blu-ray players that are in households with a PS3 player or something like that.

It was the households that either had a Blu-ray player, a PS3, multiple Blu-ray players, a Blu-ray Player and a PS3, or multiple PS3s.

The PS3 is different for Blu-ray adoption than other gaming consoles with DVD were to DVD adoption as the PS3 was a superior Blu-ray player in its own right and for a log time was the best value for a Blu-ray player and can serve as a media hub for a household and get more secondary usage than a PS2 or other consoles did with DVD. .
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Old 01-02-2012, 01:19 PM   #823  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GizmoDVD View Post
With retailers likely trimming space allocated for OD, we will see a drop.



But BD players does not equal sales. We saw that in 2011 when more BD players entered homes and BD might be lucky enough to be up 20% over the previous year. And that 20% comes with many * as the studios played some games this year to make Blu-ray front and center (POTC4). Lots of revenue that went to BD that was not rightfully earned. I mean, we all know the tricks the studios will do, some will downplay it *cough*, but it happened.
The base rate of sales did climb as did marketshare and other metrics for Blu-ray such as the heights of some some titles's Blu-ray sales.

The overall gains were moderated because of the strength of releases.
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Old 01-02-2012, 01:22 PM   #824  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
Thanks Lee. So less than 1/2 of BD players were sold up till now than DVD players, or a ratio of 2.1:1 DVD/BD players.

In January 2009 CES they said that only 35% of the BD players were SA. 10.7 million BD + PS3 players were sold, vs. 5.4 million DVD players. Factoring out the PS3 would give 3.7 million BD SA players. So the ratio was actually less DVD back then: 1.46:1.

That means the sale of DVD players are accelerating compared to Blu-ray.
Again I wish it was that simple. Both DVD and Blu-ray and PS3 units sold often went to homes that already had one device. The DEG statistic should have an offset in there to account for multiple devices in a household so you just cannot subtract out PS3s from Blu-ray players.
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Old 01-02-2012, 01:26 PM   #825  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty
Some of the things to look for next year is the base rate of routine sales for Blu-ray without any big releases in the Q1 Q2 Q3 period and how high the first couple weeks of bigger releases like Twilight: Breaking Dawn will be for Blu-ray revenues and Blu-ray revenue and unit marketshare and title marketshare.

Those are the kind of thing that will be effected by the increase in Blu-ray hardware owners and increased Blu-ray household penetration or promotional incidents like the POTC4 Disney Blu-ray combo only strategy with DVD only delay. Catalog Blu-ray sales and more inventory of Blu-ray titles should also be a result of a larger Blu-ray ownership base.
Quote:
Originally Posted by chipvideo View Post
So there is not gonna be any big releases in the first 3 quarters of the year. Huh? You know this
how?
Of course there will be. But those come at the rate of about once a month in Q1 Q2 Q3 . But the base rate of sales should rise over last year just like it has risen over each year as the user base of Blu-ray players has expanded. When the bigger releases hit the better releases will be better performing on average than what they would have been the year before and the peaks get higher and the valley floor gets raised.

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