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Optical (Blu-ray/DVD) and Digital (EST/UV) Sales Thread

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Old 12-30-2011, 01:49 PM   #766  
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But for those asserting that sell through is in permanent decline: Do you believe that Netflix will become the largest single source of Home Video revenue in the US for the studios?
This is a sales thread. Sales to consumers, more specifically.

Netflix doesn't sell movies. Your question is off topic for this thread.
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Old 12-30-2011, 02:07 PM   #767  
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There are some people who seem to have a very strong opinion that sell through will decline without any replacement.

I disagree with that assessment, but it does bring up an interesting scenario.


We all know OD sell through is declining rapidly, including signs up Blu-ray plateauing. The assertion of some is that no sell through model will be able to show overall sell through growth.

If that is true and the current models continue to grow, would that make Netflix become the single largest source of revenue for Home Video in the US?


Personally I don't think that is the case and that sell through will find a way to grow again. The question is how low will the bottom be as OD continues its descent.

But for those asserting that sell through is in permanent decline: Do you believe that Netflix will become the largest single source of Home Video revenue in the US for the studios?
No - other services like Amazon, Dish and FIOS are preparing their subscription video services.

Then you have the VOD/PPV portion of the HVM. That is growing and has nothing to do with Netflix or subscription video.
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Old 12-30-2011, 02:13 PM   #768  
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No - other services like Amazon, Dish and FIOS are preparing their subscription video services.

Then you have the VOD/PPV portion of the HVM. That is growing and has nothing to do with Netflix or subscription video.
So you believe those services will each individually grow larger than $3 billion a year?

If they did it would certainly be a boon to Home Video.
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Old 12-30-2011, 02:20 PM   #769  
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VOD and subscription services aren't sales. This is a sales thread.

The studios want to sell instead of rent. It's why UV was created. So we should be discussing sales, not rentals (of any kind).
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Old 12-30-2011, 03:13 PM   #770  
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So you believe those services will each individually grow larger than $3 billion a year?

If they did it would certainly be a boon to Home Video.
I believe Netflix will not be able to hold onto all of their existing SVOD subs - they will have churn once the other SVOD providers begin their plans in earnest.
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Old 12-30-2011, 03:15 PM   #771  
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I believe Netflix will not be able to hold onto all of their existing SVOD subs - they will have churn once the other SVOD providers begin their plans in earnest.
Do you think that there will be multiple SVOD subs with a mix of customers?

For example: I would pay for Netflix streaming, HBO Go and ESPN today if I could (and ESPN included MNF).
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Old 12-30-2011, 03:16 PM   #772  
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VOD and subscription services aren't sales. This is a sales thread.

The studios want to sell instead of rent. It's why UV was created. So we should be discussing sales, not rentals (of any kind).
Please stop playing Pseudo-Mod. This is a 770+ post thread. Do you really believe EVERY one of those 770+ posts is sales oriented?

And rentals are DEFINITELY affecting sales so yes - this IS an approproiate thread to discuss them.
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Old 12-30-2011, 03:20 PM   #773  
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Do you think that there will be multiple SVOD subs with a mix of customers?

For example: I would pay for Netflix streaming, HBO Go and ESPN today if I could (and ESPN included MNF).
Let's say each service was priced at $8 a month and each service had no real overlapping content. So $24 a month for the three services. That's A LOT cheaper then having a cable subscription especially when you start to add additional TV sets.
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Old 12-30-2011, 04:45 PM   #774  
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Let's say each service was priced at $8 a month and each service had no real overlapping content. So $24 a month for the three services. That's A LOT cheaper then having a cable subscription especially when you start to add additional TV sets.
It is.

I am saying that I don't expect multiple SVOD services to cannibalize much from each other unless they do share the same content. Then they would have to compete on price.

Not sure how anyone could compete with Netflix on price AND content without burning through a boatload of cash.

HBO Go is the noticeable exception, but again there is not much overlapping content so I expect both Netflix and HBO Go would do very well as SVOD services.
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Old 01-01-2012, 08:42 PM   #775  
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Does anybody know if Blu-ray has sold more players than DVD during comparable time periods?

The last DEG reports shows 33.5 million players, and according to this link, 33.0 million DVD players were sold through the first half of 2002 (which would be the same 5.25 years into its lifespan).

Another question: I would assume that 33.5 million Blu-ray players include the PS3, so does that CEA data include PS2 sales?

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Old 01-01-2012, 09:09 PM   #776  
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Default Blu-ray software sales vs. DVD

According to the DEG, DVD sold close to $12 billion in its first 5 1/2 years, while Blu-ray has sold virtually 1/2 of that: $6 billion.

The next 12 months (2003) had DVD selling $9.44 billion in sell through alone. If Blu-ray were to continue to keep 1/2 pace, it will have to sell $4.72 next year. I would say the odds are very small of that happening.

http://www.highdefforum.com/1227534-post706.html
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Old 01-01-2012, 09:33 PM   #777  
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Blu-ray won't achieve that. It's impossible unless studios kill off DVD new releases completely. But I can't see that happening as its clear they are moving on from OD.
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Old 01-01-2012, 10:01 PM   #778  
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Does anybody know if Blu-ray has sold more players than DVD during comparable time periods?

The last DEG reports shows 33.5 million players, and according to this link, 33.0 million DVD players were sold through the first half of 2002 (which would be the same 5.25 years into its lifespan).

Another question: I would assume that 33.5 million Blu-ray players include the PS3, so does that CEA data include PS2 sales?
I believe you are correct. I am very sure that any CEA and NPD figures do not include game systems (ie the PS2 or Xbox or PS3 or Xbox 360) as both the CEA and NPD separate out set top boxes from game consoles while I believe the cited DEG figures do include the PS3. Someone can confirm the DEG stats include the PS3 to be sure.

If you are asking if the CEA figures from the TheDigitalBits site include the PS2 I am quite sure they do not as they look just like the historical figures from the CEA. But that can be easily check by order of magnitude of PS2 sales in North America during those years. It should be obvious as PS2 numbers on top should affect the order of magnitude pretty clearly.

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Old 01-01-2012, 10:16 PM   #779  
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I believe you are correct. I am very sure that any CEA and NPD figures do not include game systems (ie the PS2 or Xbox or PS3 or Xbox 360) as both the CEA and NPD separate out set top boxes from game consoles while I believe the cited DEG figures do include the PS3. Someone can confirm the DEG stats include the PS3 to be sure.

If you are asking if the CEA figures from the TheDigitalBits site include the PS2 I am quite sure they do not as they look just like the historical figures from the CEA. But that can be easily check by order of magnitude of PS2 sales in North America during those years. It should be obvious as PS2 numbers on top should affect the order of magnitude pretty clearly.
Pretty odd that the PS3 is counted as a Blu-ray player, while the PS2 wasn't counted as a DVD player. They are both gaming machines + movie players. Was one used more for movies than the other?
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Old 01-01-2012, 10:22 PM   #780  
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Pretty odd that the PS3 is counted as a Blu-ray player, while the PS2 wasn't counted as a DVD player. They are both gaming machines + movie players. Was one used more for movies than the other?
DVD players were selling in large quantites. BD players haven't. They have always needed the PS3 to inflate the number of players sold. Without it, the numbers wouldn't look good at all.

Just like today, they sell lots of Combo packs.
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