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Optical (Blu-ray/DVD) and Digital (EST/UV) Sales Thread

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Old 12-29-2011, 12:37 AM   #736  
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So there is a bd combo pack selling for less than the dvd only version?
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Old 12-29-2011, 12:37 AM   #737  
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Yeah, but the title drops out of the top 20 after the first month or so. How can you keep track of its share over a longer period unless you have access to a deeper list than the top 20? And if anything goes back into the top 20 later it's because of a sale.

Why do you think the Q4 samples are skewed? Is it normal for Q4 BD title market share to dive after week 1?
I can ask sometimes and get access to the 1-50 Top Sellers off the first alert list and I have asked for data on some prominent titles. I sometimes see the entire first alert report from some sources that have access to it but not on a routine basis. But I sometimes can ask for historical placement of a specific title over time.

The 4Q has higher overall volumes from less highly involved consumers and DVD volumes increase substantially in units sold so that metric is a bit stressed.

But one thing does come to mind that I did not think of before. As Blu-ray household penetration has increased and more Blu-ray owners buy online or may have a rush to get the more prominent titles on release day or when preorders are processed you might have recently seen a more substantial drop off from week one to week two this fall as day 1 of sales in the first week is when pre orders get booked in the Nielsen Videoscan first alert and other stats. So if you are looking only at the first couple weeks this fall that may be something I did not see before. I would bet you that would find the BD marketshare may be more stable over time with the same patterns of occasional drops of BD share when the DVD units were placed on sale at major retail.

I'll go back and look at some recent patterns of the BD marketshare for titles for this year and see if anything has changed since I last looked at it in detail.

Did you do a recent analysis of the patterning there that I might have missed? I'd be curious to see what you saw that lead you to your conclusion there.

Last edited by Kosty; 12-29-2011 at 01:08 AM..
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Old 12-29-2011, 12:43 AM   #738  
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Ive been sayin that forever btw. That bd sales are more front loaded to online release date sales. DUH. Where you been?
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Old 12-29-2011, 01:17 AM   #739  
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Ive been sayin that forever btw. That bd sales are more front loaded to online release date sales. DUH. Where you been?
I'm sorry if I missed that in all the clutter and chaff that I sometimes have to deal with. That's certainly a valid point and it may indeed be more of a more recent factor this year. Online purchases have increased dramatically in 4Q 2010 and 4Q 2011 and online preorders are much easier online than at brick and mortar retailers where preorders for movies are less common except for marque titles. Its more of a factor for brick and mortar gaming sales for hot games.

Last year or in previous years it really was not a factor except for some pretty prominent titles. If bruceames has seen it more of a pattern now then its likely that pre orders have become more of a factor and your comments there may have some confirmation.

What was seen before was that over time the BD unit marketshare stayed with 5% of the release week with some drops when the titles were on sale for the DVD version. The general trend after the 4 week and 8 week mark was for the Blu-ray unit marketshare to slowly rise after as the DVD volumes attritied more rapidly and the Blu-ray volumes fell less steeply over time as the Blu-ray skus had a longer term steady sales tail that stayed at a higher volume while the DVD volumes dropped off a cliff at the 8 week mark.

That pattern would not be a surprise as DVD household penetration is steady or falling from universal market saturation while the Blu-ray format is steadily adding in new owners every month.

Its possible that bruceames is looking at more short term trends than I was referring to over a longer sales period and hence a bit of disagreement in our observations.

Last edited by Kosty; 12-29-2011 at 01:22 AM..
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Old 12-29-2011, 01:31 AM   #740  
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Ive been sayin that forever btw. That bd sales are more front loaded to online release date sales. DUH. Where you been?
In the land of PR spin.

Where Sunday offset explains double digit declines. And units suddenly become the relevant yardstick (despite the previous PR schtick from Q1/Q2 2011 of unit price being 'established' now and forever more).


When all is said and done. Look at the revenue numbers. Look at the trends for OD and look at the trends for BD. They tell a very clear tale.

And beware anyone who tries to downplay those trends. They are selling a story.
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Old 12-29-2011, 10:08 AM   #741  
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So there is a bd combo pack selling for less than the dvd only version?
Yep! That's how successful Blu-ray is. They are selling the Combo pack - which not only comes with the DVD, but a Blu-ray AND Digital Copy - for $3 less than the DVD.

Yep folks, Blu-ray is a huge success.
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Old 12-29-2011, 12:20 PM   #742  
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Yep! That's how successful Blu-ray is. They are selling the Combo pack - which not only comes with the DVD, but a Blu-ray AND Digital Copy - for $3 less than the DVD.

Yep folks, Blu-ray is a huge success.
They over estimated and made to many. Excess Inventory.
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Old 12-29-2011, 07:04 PM   #743  
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I think we can stop the economy is hurting blu-ray sales now. I imagine people will still blame the economy on poor uptake of blu-ray even though facts prove otherwise.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-job...215423241.html

It doesn't matter how good the economy grows. OD will keep on declining and blu-ray will hit a peak next year.
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Old 12-29-2011, 09:27 PM   #744  
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I think we can stop the economy is hurting blu-ray sales now. I imagine people will still blame the economy on poor uptake of blu-ray even though facts prove otherwise.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-job...215423241.html

It doesn't matter how good the economy grows. OD will keep on declining and blu-ray will hit a peak next year.
I suspect there will be those who will refuse to give up that reason. They have held onto it for so long, it will be like giving up an arm or a leg.
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Old 12-30-2011, 09:49 AM   #745  
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I suspect there will be those who will refuse to give up that reason. They have held onto it for so long, it will be like giving up an arm or a leg.
Or worse...

It's kind of sad how everything is blamed on the economy. Yet tablet sales are through the roof. Nahh, those $500+ iPads are all being used for work. No one would ever buy them for games and/or watch movies on. No, never. Why do you think we have UV? For those damn tablets (and phones). Discs are cumbersome.
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Old 12-30-2011, 09:52 AM   #746  
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Or worse...

It's kind of sad how everything is blamed on the economy. Yet tablet sales are through the roof. Nahh, those $500+ iPads are all being used for work. No one would ever buy them for games and/or watch movies on. No, never. Why do you think we have UV? For those damn tablets (and phones). Discs are cumbersome.
Some people just love to be in denial. The movie studios know this, how come some posters continue to believe otherwise.
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Old 12-30-2011, 10:00 AM   #747  
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Or worse...

It's kind of sad how everything is blamed on the economy. Yet tablet sales are through the roof. Nahh, those $500+ iPads are all being used for work. No one would ever buy them for games and/or watch movies on. No, never. Why do you think we have UV? For those damn tablets (and phones). Discs are cumbersome.
If what you say is true digital sales and rentals via iTunes etc. should be through the roof very shortly, since all of those tablets have now been opened as gifts.

So Q1 2012 should show a huge increase in digital movie sales and rentals as a result of all the tablets sold.

Was there a noticeable increase when the first ~10-15M iPads were sold in 2010? iPads should be growing the home entertainment movie sector alone given your bullishness over their apparent contribution to movie viewing.
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Old 12-30-2011, 10:03 AM   #748  
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If what you say is true digital sales and rentals via iTunes etc. should be through the roof very shortly, since all of those tablets have now been opened as gifts.

So Q1 2012 should show a huge increase in digital movie sales and rentals as a result of all the tablets sold.

Was there a noticeable increase when the first ~10M iPads were sold in 2010?
There are other ways to get movies onto iPads and such without the need for renting/buying from iTunes. Don't be such a badboy...
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Old 12-30-2011, 10:12 AM   #749  
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There are other ways to get movies onto iPads and such without the need for renting/buying from iTunes. Don't be such a badboy...
iTunes is still dominant, and since iPads attract a mass market crowd, iTunes is still #1, as the iPad is #1.

Then there is Netflix. For $7.99, Netflix isn't saving the industry.

UV currently is free with a disc purchase, and not contributing any money.

Vudu? via web browser? I don't think that is bringing in much $$ via tablets.

A lot of tablets also have their own media store. How much are they making?

With the millions of tablets sold surely we should see a noticeable increase in home video $$ coming from tablets. Is there ANY evidence of this?

It's great to sell millions of tablets, but unless you can show me they have significantly impacted home video by increasing sales/rentals, then they can be viewed as failing to significantly contribute to the home video industry.
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Old 12-30-2011, 10:17 AM   #750  
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One would think that with exploding tablet and smartphone sales, that digital sales would also start rising significantly. But I think that just goes to show that people don't want to pay for content to watch on the road, but rather on their big screen at home.
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