Optical (Blu-ray/DVD) and Digital (EST/UV) Sales Thread

[TowerGrove]

Warner Blu Ray quotes on sales recently...

http://www.highdefforum.com/showthre...92#post1227792

[chipvideo]

Originally Posted by GizmoDVD

Oh gees. If HP 7.2 jumped up that means everything else was pretty low.

Another bad week for Blu-ray

Wouldn't surprise me to see it down 15% for the week.

[GizmoDVD]

Originally Posted by chipvideo

Wouldn't surprise me to see it down 15% for the week.

Dolphin Tale was #3? Oh gees. People actually bought that film? Seemed like the perfect rental.

[TowerGrove]

Originally Posted by GizmoDVD

Oh gees. If HP 7.2 jumped up that means everything else was pretty low.

Another bad week for Blu-ray

Unless there was a mad rush for Harry Potter around the holiday:

[GizmoDVD]

Originally Posted by TowerGrove

Unless there was a mad rush for Harry Potter around the holiday:

Must have been. Wonder if the 3D sales helped since this was $15/$17 several times.

[bruceames]

HP 7.2 was on sale everywhere, so no surprise it was #1 in week with no new strong releases.

Look at how much the Blu-ray market share has fallen for some of those titles.

Hangover 2: 44% --> 33% ---> 27%
Kung Fu Panda 2: 36% --> 21%
Planet of the Apes: 49% --> 37%

Those are really low BD shares for those types of titles. I guess when push comes to shove, at crunch time, Xmas week, consumers still chose DVD.

That's probably why Panda 2 and Apes BDs are discounted so heavily this week, while the DVD is not. The BDs underperformed so badly that the retailers have a ton of excess stock.

[GizmoDVD]

But we were told by the PR Pound Puppies that BD holds it's % week after week! What in the world...

[Kosty]

Originally Posted by Kosty

I have been told that both the studios and retailers liked the front loading further into September and its a strategy we will likely see repeated next year.

Originally Posted by GizmoDVD

Link to said proof? Or is this simply your opinion?

Not my opinion but that of others.

It was personal contacts so there is no links. But we will see in the end of year statements and commentary from DEG for the end of year statistics if it is mentioned.

Of course, the proof of whether those comments were accurate enough will be seen if the strategy is repeated next year and if we see more releases earlier in September 2012 as we just saw in Sep 2012.

But it seems to make sense to bruceames as well as I so it seamed reasonable to me.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by GizmoDVD

But we were told by the PR Pound Puppies that BD holds it's % week after week! What in the world...

They don't hold their share at all. They go down...unless there's a sale that's exclusive to the BD of course. I suspect it's because of the preorders like Chip said. The Blu-ray demographic is more of a day one buying crowd.

[Kosty]

Originally Posted by GizmoDVD

But we were told by the PR Pound Puppies that BD holds it's % week after week! What in the world...

Over the long term it generally does (Q1-Q3) with the exceptions of the weeks when the title is sale discounted at a major retailer for the DVD version or in the higher volume 4Q and holiday sale weeks like this one where the DVD volumes are exceptionally high in volumes.

[Kosty]

Originally Posted by bruceames

They don't hold their share at all. They go down...unless there's a sale that's exclusive to the BD of course. I suspect it's because of the preorders like Chip said. The Blu-ray demographic is more of a day one buying crowd.

Through last year I keep up a chart with the BD marketshares over time from the NV first alert statistics.

In the Q1 Q2 Q3 period the Blu-ray markertshares for titles hold quite steady with occasional spikes for DVD. It breaks someone in the 4Q in the last couple months where overall DVD volumes increase seasonally.

If you are only looking at recent 4Q data you are looking at a skewed sample. Some titles may vary but its pretty consistent.

If you have recent data give me the link so I can look at it if you think the pattern shows otherwise as I'm willing to see evidence to the contrary.

[chipvideo]

Originally Posted by Kosty

Over the long term it generally does (Q1-Q3) with the exceptions of the weeks when the title is sale discounted at a major retailer for the DVD version or in the higher volume 4Q and holiday sale weeks like this one where the DVD volumes are exceptionally high in volumes.

You just got proven wrong by Bruce. Lets see some data to back up your OPINION.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by Kosty

Through last year I keep up a chart with the BD marketshares over time from the NV first alert statistics.

In the Q1 Q2 Q3 period the Blu-ray markertshares for titles hold quite steady with occasional spikes for DVD. It breaks someone in the 4Q in the last couple months where overall DVD volumes increase seasonally.

If you are only looking at recent 4Q data you are looking at a skewed sample. Some titles may vary but its pretty consistent.

If you have recent data give me the link so I can look at it if you think the pattern shows otherwise as I'm willing to see evidence to the contrary.

Yeah, but the title drops out of the top 20 after the first month or so. How can you keep track of its share over a longer period unless you have access to a deeper list than the top 20? And if anything goes back into the top 20 later it's because of a sale.

Why do you think the Q4 samples are skewed? Is it normal for Q4 BD title market share to dive after week 1?

[bruceames]

I'll have to check out the behavior of more titles from earlier periods, but like anybody else I only have access to top 20 data, so it would be only the first few weeks or so.

[PSound]

Originally Posted by GizmoDVD

But we were told by the PR Pound Puppies that BD holds it's % week after week! What in the world...

We were also told by the same sources that BD pricing would be stable in 2011 and that increased unit sales (from a larger installed BD base) would directly result in significant revenue increase.

Indeed, The Kosty stated that predictions from realistic folks for ~ 20% BD revenue growth was "pessimistic".

Now unit numbers are being pushed because BD software did NOT hold its price and is combo packs are being discounted below the price of DVD only sets.


It is a constant PR tap dance to deflect and hide the truth. Anyone actually looking at the numbers can see the issues and the weakness in BD software.

I could see some claiming ignorance. But in very specific cases, it is not ignorance. It is an attempt to hide the truth with PR speak, deflection and silencing of dissenting opinion.