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Old 12-27-2011, 03:35 PM   #706  
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Default DEG OD stats since 1999

Some of them are derived, particularly the rental data. Most of the rental data is from a combination of the Year End 2007 and 2010 reports. The 2007 data shows the ratios between sell through and rental, while the 2010 report has the revised DVD figures.

The purpose was to glean as accurate a rental vs sell through info as possible, in order to see where that ratio is going over time. The answer is up: This latest year should see OD rental close to 40% of the total.

Notice also that OD rental has not fallen nearly as much as sell through has, from a peak of $6.36 billion in 2007, to $5.80 billion last year: a drop of 8.8%

Finally, the 2011 data are projections. But with only 3 weeks to go, they should be reasonably close. Let me know of any errors.

Figures are in billions.
% BD = sell through percentage of BD vs. OD.
% rent = percentage of OD rentals (BD + DVD)

Code:
Year Total   DVDsell  DVDrent  BDsell  BDrent	% rent	% BD

1999	1.1	0.96	0.14	0.00	0.00	12.5%	0.0%
2000	2.4	1.82	0.58	0.00	0.00	24.0%	0.0%
2001	5.3	4.21	1.09	0.00	0.00	20.6%	0.0%
2002	8.6	6.45	2.15	0.00	0.00	25.0%	0.0%
2003	13.1	9.44	3.66	0.00	0.00	28.0%	0.0%
2004	16.7	12.45	4.25	0.00	0.00	25.5%	0.0%
2005	18.9	13.51	5.39	0.00	0.00	28.5%	0.0%
2006	20.2	13.89	6.29	0.02	0.00	31.1%	0.1%
2007	20.0	13.38	6.31	0.25	0.05	32.1%	1.8%
2008	19.3	12.48	5.92	0.63	0.27	33.0%	5.0%
2009	17.3	10.55	5.25	1.07	0.43	32.8%	9.2%
2010	16.3	8.90	5.10	1.80	0.50	34.4%	16.8%
2011	15.0	6.90	5.00	2.20	0.70	38.0%	24.2%

Last edited by bruceames; 01-06-2012 at 09:32 PM..
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Old 12-27-2011, 03:57 PM   #707  
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Won't be too long until rental exceeds sales. Shows that consumers are smart. They figure it out. The greedy studios have hard times ahead. Time for them to lower the sales prices. That should be a wakeup call to them. I am really surprised that more insiders haven't gotten the pink slip. They need to get the new generation in and out with the old.

Prices have to come down as demand for other entertainment has devalued movies greatly. The internet is an unlimited entertainment time waster that the stuidos are competing with directly.
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Old 12-27-2011, 05:28 PM   #708  
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Here is another table, showing the same data in percentage YoY gain. Notice that OD sell through is on track to have its worst YoY decline ever (-15% YoY and -34.6% since its peak in 2006), and that OD rental revenue has actually been up the last 2 years.



Code:
Year	ODsell	YoY%	DVDsell	YoY%	BDsell	YoY%	Odrent	YoY%
1999	0.96	0.0%	0.96	0.0%	0.00	0.0%	0.14	0.0%
2000	1.82	89.6%	1.82	89.6%	0.00	0.0%	0.58	314.3%
2001	4.21	131.3%	4.21	131.3%	0.00	0.0%	1.09	87.9%
2002	6.45	53.2%	6.45	53.2%	0.00	0.0%	2.15	97.2%
2003	9.44	46.4%	9.44	46.4%	0.00	0.0%	3.66	70.2%
2004	12.45	31.9%	12.45	31.9%	0.00	0.0%	4.25	16.1%
2005	13.51	8.5%	13.51	8.5%	0.00	0.0%	5.39	26.8%
2006	13.91	3.0%	13.89	2.8%	0.02	0.0%	6.29	16.7%
2007	13.63	-2.0%	13.38	-3.7%	0.25	1125.0%	6.36	1.1%
2008	13.13	-3.7%	12.48	-6.7%	0.63	152.0%	6.17	-3.0%
2009	11.62	-11.5%	10.55	-15.5%	1.07	70.0%	5.68	-7.9%
2010	10.70	-7.9%	8.90	-15.6%	1.80	68.2%	5.80	2.1%
2011	9.10	-15.0%	6.90	-22.5%	2.20	22.2%	5.90	1.7%

Last edited by bruceames; 12-27-2011 at 07:14 PM..
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Old 12-27-2011, 05:51 PM   #709  
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Good info!

I wonder how the shift in how the DEG accounts for Netflix revenue will impact that both for Q4 and especially in 2012.
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Old 12-27-2011, 10:31 PM   #710  
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The-Numbers DVD units for week ending 12/18 are up, and using those and the Nielsen ratios, the Blu-ray unit sales for the top 20 don't look so good. According to them, Panda 2 and Rise of the Planet of the Apes barely sold a combined million copies. That's $342 million in favorable genre box office power selling 1.06 million copies. Also, the top 20 total units sold is only 70% of the week before. Not at all a good indicator of a $100 million week.

Last edited by bruceames; 12-27-2011 at 10:38 PM..
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Old 12-27-2011, 10:53 PM   #711  
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Speaking of favorable box office genre, Q4 this year definitely enjoyed a more favorable mix than Q4 2010. Some info from Kosty regarding this:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
(Updated 9/19/11)

2011 vs 2010 $100 M+ Box Office sorted by Blu-ray Genre Performance


Obviously a lot more strong performing superhero or action films this year and more strong performing animation films last year compared for the releases that will show up in the 4Q holiday sales season.

Code:
$377,088,000  Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
$351,303,000  Transformers: Dark of the Moon		
$240,124,000  Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides	
$209,802,420  Fast Five
$180,955,000  Thor
$174,300,000  Captain America: The First Avenger    
$171,618,406  Rise of the Planet of the Apes

$144,723,842  X-Men: First Class
$126,865,000  Super 8
$114,327,624  Green Lantern
+$98,836,716+ Cowboys vs. Aliens

$188,585,000  Cars 2
$164,262,000  Kung Fu Panda 2
$137,551,000  The Smurfs

$253,027,043  The Hangover Part II
$168,751,540  Bridesmaids
$147,365,000  The Help
$113,781,000  Horrible Bosses
+$97,900,000+ Bad Teacher

Code:

$312,433,331  Iron Man 2  
$292,568,851  Inception  

$131,772,187  The Last Airbender               
$118,311,368  Salt	
$105,487,148  Robin Hood		
$103,068,524  The Expendables	
 $90,759,676  Prince of Persia: Sands of Time	

$415,004,880  Toy Story 3                               
$251,203,225  Despicable Me                               
$238,736,787  Shrek Forever After                         	
$217,581,231  How to Train Your Dragon                    

$300,531,751  Twilight Saga: Eclipse   
$176,591,618  The Karate Kid                            
$162,001,186  Grown Ups	
$119,219,978  The Other Guys 		
 $95,347,692  Sex and the City 2		


 
As you can see, nearly double, or $1 billion more, in the most favorable (blue) box office genre mix. So even though Q4 box office power for this quarter will end up down slightly YoY (-5.9%), the mix of titles definitely favored this year.
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Old 12-28-2011, 01:37 AM   #712  
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Nice work and cool chart, its appreciated.

I have a couple questions though.

What information are you using to split off the Blu-ray sell through and rental income between the reported years?

Also what information are you basing the estimate for Blu-ray rental income upon? Are you just taking and extending the trend for BD rentals to 2011?

At first glance it looks order of magnitude correct to me, but I'll check it against my best historical data I have as well as soon as I can.


Quote:
Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
Some of them are derived, particularly the rental data. Most of the rental data is from a combination of the Year End 2007 and 2010 reports. The 2007 data shows the ratios between sell through and rental, while the 2010 report has the revised DVD figures.

The purpose was to glean as accurate a rental vs sell through info as possible, in order to see where that ratio is going over time. The answer is up: This latest year should see OD rental close to 40% of the total.

Notice also that OD rental has not fallen nearly as much as sell through has, from a peak of $6.36 billion in 2007, to $5.80 billion last year: a drop of 8.8%

Finally, the 2011 data are projections. But with only 3 weeks to go, they should be reasonably close. Let me know of any errors.

Figures are in billions.
% BD = sell through percentage of BD vs. OD.
% rent = percentage of OD rentals (BD + DVD)

Code:
Year Total   DVDsell  DVDrent  BDsell  BDrent	% rent	% BD

1999	1.1	0.96	0.14	0.00	0.00	12.5%	0.0%
2000	2.4	1.82	0.58	0.00	0.00	24.0%	0.0%
2001	5.3	4.21	1.09	0.00	0.00	20.6%	0.0%
2002	8.6	6.45	2.15	0.00	0.00	25.0%	0.0%
2003	13.1	9.44	3.66	0.00	0.00	28.0%	0.0%
2004	16.7	12.45	4.25	0.00	0.00	25.5%	0.0%
2005	18.9	13.51	5.39	0.00	0.00	28.5%	0.0%
2006	20.2	13.89	6.29	0.02	0.00	31.1%	0.1%
2007	20.0	13.38	6.31	0.25	0.05	32.1%	1.8%
2008	19.3	12.48	5.92	0.63	0.27	33.0%	5.0%
2009	17.3	10.55	5.25	1.07	0.43	32.8%	9.2%
2010	16.3	8.90	5.10	1.80	0.70	35.6%	16.8%
2011	15.0	6.90	5.00	2.20	0.90	39.9%	24.2%

Quote:
Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
Here is another table, showing the same data in percentage YoY gain. Notice that OD sell through is on track to have its worst YoY decline ever (-15% YoY and -34.6% since its peak in 2006), and that OD rental revenue has actually been up the last 2 years.



Code:
Year	ODsell	YoY%	DVDsell	YoY%	BDsell	YoY%	Odrent	YoY%
1999	0.96	0.0%	0.96	0.0%	0.00	0.0%	0.14	0.0%
2000	1.82	89.6%	1.82	89.6%	0.00	0.0%	0.58	314.3%
2001	4.21	131.3%	4.21	131.3%	0.00	0.0%	1.09	87.9%
2002	6.45	53.2%	6.45	53.2%	0.00	0.0%	2.15	97.2%
2003	9.44	46.4%	9.44	46.4%	0.00	0.0%	3.66	70.2%
2004	12.45	31.9%	12.45	31.9%	0.00	0.0%	4.25	16.1%
2005	13.51	8.5%	13.51	8.5%	0.00	0.0%	5.39	26.8%
2006	13.91	3.0%	13.89	2.8%	0.02	0.0%	6.29	16.7%
2007	13.63	-2.0%	13.38	-3.7%	0.25	1125.0%	6.36	1.1%
2008	13.13	-3.7%	12.48	-6.7%	0.63	152.0%	6.17	-3.0%
2009	11.62	-11.5%	10.55	-15.5%	1.07	70.0%	5.68	-7.9%
2010	10.70	-7.9%	8.90	-15.6%	1.80	68.2%	5.80	2.1%
2011	9.10	-15.0%	6.90	-22.5%	2.20	22.2%	5.90	1.7%
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Old 12-28-2011, 02:03 AM   #713  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
Speaking of favorable box office genre, Q4 this year definitely enjoyed a more favorable mix than Q4 2010. Some info from Kosty regarding this:



As you can see, nearly double, or $1 billion more, in the most favorable (blue) box office genre mix. So even though Q4 box office power for this quarter will end up down slightly YoY (-5.9%), the mix of titles definitely favored this year.

Those were all the summer releases that were in the mix and some of the favorable genre ones showed up in the 3Q in September so not all were in the 4Q

X-Men: First Class ($145M) Thor ($181M) and Transformers DOTM ($352M) were all 3Q 2011 releases. They contributed to the 58% YoY DEG gain in the 3Q for Blu-ray.

But the early 4Q was definitely better in genre mix and TBO for Blu-ray this year but since mid November the overall TBO has been favor of last year.


Sep 3Q 2011
Code:
Release  WEdata   Box Office  Title

09/09/11*09/11/11 $144,723,842    X-Men: First Class (Friday release)
09/13/11 09/18/11 $180,955,000    Thor
09/16/11*09/18/11 Major Catalog   Star Wars Saga (Friday release)
09/20/11 09/25/11 Major Catalog   Dumbo 
09/20/11 09/25/11 $168,941,635    Bridesmaids
09/30/11*10/02/11 $352,361,000    Transformers: Dark of the Moon (Friday release)	
.

Last edited by Kosty; 12-28-2011 at 02:11 AM..
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Old 12-28-2011, 10:07 AM   #714  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
Nice work and cool chart, its appreciated.

I have a couple questions though.

What information are you using to split off the Blu-ray sell through and rental income between the reported years?
The 1999-2007 data was from 2 sources as I already explained.
Quote:
Most of the rental data is from a combination of the Year End 2007 and 2010 reports. The 2007 data shows the ratios between sell through and rental, while the 2010 report has the revised DVD figures.
The 2007 year-end DEG report shows the actual rental splits, but I couldn't use that data directly, because the overall DVD revenue was revised downwards in the 2010 year-end report. So I use the ratios between sell through and rental given in the 2007 report, and applied them to the 2010 DVD revenue. It's all one can do really, and although it's possible or even likely that the revisions affected one revenue stream more than the other, the results should be reasonably close enough to be considered usable. The 2008-2010 data was from a mixture of DEG reports that I used to get DVD revenue, which was already in my Excel spreadsheet. I don't recall all of that now, but your welcome to verify anything to see if anything needs to be adjusted one way or the other.

Quote:
Also what information are you basing the estimate for Blu-ray rental income upon? Are you just taking and extending the trend for BD rentals to 2011?
2007 BD rental I just guessed, but since only $300 million in total revenue was from that year, the individual sellthrough/rental portions shouldn't be off by more than $20 million either way. 2008-2010 were taken from the DEG reports and 2011 is an estimate as well, as I had already mentioned.

Quote:
At first glance it looks order of magnitude correct to me, but I'll check it against my best historical data I have as well as soon as I can.
I would appreciate that.
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Old 12-28-2011, 10:18 AM   #715  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
Those were all the summer releases that were in the mix and some of the favorable genre ones showed up in the 3Q in September so not all were in the 4Q

X-Men: First Class ($145M) Thor ($181M) and Transformers DOTM ($352M) were all 3Q 2011 releases. They contributed to the 58% YoY DEG gain in the 3Q for Blu-ray.

But the early 4Q was definitely better in genre mix and TBO for Blu-ray this year but since mid November the overall TBO has been favor of last year.


Sep 3Q 2011
Code:
Release  WEdata   Box Office  Title

09/09/11*09/11/11 $144,723,842    X-Men: First Class (Friday release)
09/13/11 09/18/11 $180,955,000    Thor
09/16/11*09/18/11 Major Catalog   Star Wars Saga (Friday release)
09/20/11 09/25/11 Major Catalog   Dumbo 
09/20/11 09/25/11 $168,941,635    Bridesmaids
09/30/11*10/02/11 $352,361,000    Transformers: Dark of the Moon (Friday release)	
.



There were 3 "blue" titles in that 2010 list that were released in September as well. The main difference seems to be the Star Wars release, as well as stronger box office power for Q3 2011 as a whole (up 12.2%). Star Wars alone probably accounted for $70-80 million in revenue, which by the way would be most of that 58% YoY gain.

$312,433,331 Iron Man 2
$105,487,148 Robin Hood
$90,759,676 Prince of Persia: Sands of Time

I actually think the front loading, if it was a strategy, was a good one. It sure doesn't hurt sales of those titles individually, since they appear to sell what they should sell, no matter what time of the year it is. And spreading out the blockbusters throughout the quarter instead of cramming them into the last six weeks of the year means that they won't interfere so much with the gift giving dollar.

So all in all I think if anything, sales would have been worse if they were lined up like they were last year.

Last edited by bruceames; 12-28-2011 at 10:24 AM..
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Old 12-28-2011, 11:57 AM   #716  
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Thank you for the explanation.

That seems to be reasonable to me and the figures seem order of magnitude correct.

Quote:
Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
The 1999-2007 data was from 2 sources as I already explained.


The 2007 year-end DEG report shows the actual rental splits, but I couldn't use that data directly, because the overall DVD revenue was revised downwards in the 2010 year-end report. So I use the ratios between sell through and rental given in the 2007 report, and applied them to the 2010 DVD revenue. It's all one can do really, and although it's possible or even likely that the revisions affected one revenue stream more than the other, the results should be reasonably close enough to be considered usable. The 2008-2010 data was from a mixture of DEG reports that I used to get DVD revenue, which was already in my Excel spreadsheet. I don't recall all of that now, but your welcome to verify anything to see if anything needs to be adjusted one way or the other.



2007 BD rental I just guessed, but since only $300 million in total revenue was from that year, the individual sellthrough/rental portions shouldn't be off by more than $20 million either way. 2008-2010 were taken from the DEG reports and 2011 is an estimate as well, as I had already mentioned.



I would appreciate that.
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Old 12-28-2011, 11:59 AM   #717  
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I have been told that both the studios and retailers liked the front loading further into September and its a strategy we will likely see repeated next year.

Quote:
Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
There were 3 "blue" titles in that 2010 list that were released in September as well. The main difference seems to be the Star Wars release, as well as stronger box office power for Q3 2011 as a whole (up 12.2%). Star Wars alone probably accounted for $70-80 million in revenue, which by the way would be most of that 58% YoY gain.

$312,433,331 Iron Man 2
$105,487,148 Robin Hood
$90,759,676 Prince of Persia: Sands of Time

I actually think the front loading, if it was a strategy, was a good one. It sure doesn't hurt sales of those titles individually, since they appear to sell what they should sell, no matter what time of the year it is. And spreading out the blockbusters throughout the quarter instead of cramming them into the last six weeks of the year means that they won't interfere so much with the gift giving dollar.

So all in all I think if anything, sales would have been worse if they were lined up like they were last year.
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Old 12-28-2011, 12:26 PM   #718  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
I have been told that both the studios and retailers liked the front loading further into September and its a strategy we will likely see repeated next year.
Link to said proof? Or is this simply your opinion?
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Old 12-28-2011, 09:00 PM   #719  
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Nielsen VideoScan First Alert sales chart the week ended Dec. 25.

Quote:
VideoScan’s dedicated Blu-ray Disc sales chart saw Warner’s stalwart seller Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows — Part 2 jump back to No. 1 in its seventh week in release. The Potter Blu-ray tally barely edged out Apes, which dropped a spot to No. 2, and Dolphin Tale, which debuted at No. 3. The Hangover Part II finished slightly further back at No. 4.

Potter Blu-rays accounted for 40% of the title’s overall disc sales, compared with 37% for Apes, 30% for Dolphin Tale and 27% for Hangover Part II.
http://www.homemediamagazine.com/res...hangover-25978
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Old 12-28-2011, 09:33 PM   #720  
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Oh gees. If HP 7.2 jumped up that means everything else was pretty low.

Another bad week for Blu-ray
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