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Old 12-14-2011, 05:33 PM   #571  
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Interesting. I wonder if the next reporting week will be flat then. I was thinking it would be up around 20%.
If it's up, then it would only be because HMM revised last year's matching week revenue from $94 million to $77 million. The reason they did that remains unclear to me though, since HMM reported $21 million less than DEG in Q42010. So if anything, revenue should be added, not subtracted.

In any case, it's not going to be a huge YoY week for Blu-ray, IMO. Either flat or up perhaps 20% tops.
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Old 12-14-2011, 06:10 PM   #572  
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The Twilight Saga: Eclipse was released on Saturday Dec 4, 2010 but there were event release parties for Twilight fans around the country at Midnight (late Friday night - Saturday early morning). Normal 24 hour stores like Walmart Supercenters did high volume of that title.

Like Harry Potter the Twilight series has its own unique circumstances and does not act like a normal release.
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Old 12-14-2011, 06:22 PM   #573  
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So now the spin is that releases matter (when hiding weakness in Q1), except when they don't (looking forward to Q4 from Q1), until they do (pimping summer box office numbers) until they don't because they are unique (spinning current negative trends).

...until next weeks numbers come out.


Then it will be something else.


Kinda amazing how no matter what actually happens, it's always sunny in OD/BD land. Gotta give the PR machine credit!
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Old 12-15-2011, 12:05 AM   #574  
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Nielsen First Alert ratios are up. Blu-ray shares are:

Hangover 2: 100.0
Cowboy & Aliens: 72.32
The Help: 61.4
The Smurfs: 28.26

From there the ratios fall pretty quickly (next title has an 18, then 14, then 10, etc.), so there's not a lot of depth.

Considering the "average" (last 3 titles) week 2 attrition of Friday releases (40%), The Smurfs, having only been reported 355k BD units in week 1, would give it only 213k in week 2. If that's close, then Hangover 2 did only about 800k and the top 3 titles together sold about as much as Cars 2 did by itself, or maybe 200k more. Cars 2 week came in at only $54 million, so from those Nielsen ratios and Smurfs week 1 vs week 2, it wouldn't appear that next week will do a whole lot more than that, other than the fact that more xmas sales are added in. I'm guessing about $75 million, but I'm expecting it to be high, just because I have been lately.

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/top...k-ended-121111

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/top...k-ended-121111

The Help was the top selling OD title, but was only #3 on the Blu-ray top 20 because it had only a 24% share, which oddly enough is only 1% more than what the chick flick Twilight: Eclipse did last year.

Last edited by bruceames; 12-15-2011 at 12:08 AM..
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Old 12-15-2011, 01:02 AM   #575  
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Nielsen First Alert ratios are up. Blu-ray shares are:

Hangover 2: 100.0
Cowboy & Aliens: 72.32
The Help: 61.4
The Smurfs: 28.26

From there the ratios fall pretty quickly (next title has an 18, then 14, then 10, etc.), so there's not a lot of depth.

Considering the "average" (last 3 titles) week 2 attrition of Friday releases (40%), The Smurfs, having only been reported 355k BD units in week 1, would give it only 213k in week 2. If that's close, then Hangover 2 did only about 800k and the top 3 titles together sold about as much as Cars 2 did by itself, or maybe 200k more. Cars 2 week came in at only $54 million, so from those Nielsen ratios and Smurfs week 1 vs week 2, it wouldn't appear that next week will do a whole lot more than that, other than the fact that more xmas sales are added in. I'm guessing about $75 million, but I'm expecting it to be high, just because I have been lately.

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/top...k-ended-121111

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/top...k-ended-121111

The Help was the top selling OD title, but was only #3 on the Blu-ray top 20 because it had only a 24% share, which oddly enough is only 1% more than what the chick flick Twilight: Eclipse did last year.
Thanks for the analysis.

Will be interesting to see if YoY continues its decline.
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Old 12-15-2011, 07:36 AM   #576  
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If it's up, then it would only be because HMM revised last year's matching week revenue from $94 million to $77 million. The reason they did that remains unclear to me though, since HMM reported $21 million less than DEG in Q42010. So if anything, revenue should be added, not subtracted.

In any case, it's not going to be a huge YoY week for Blu-ray, IMO. Either flat or up perhaps 20% tops.
So that is two downward adjustments in a row in Dec 2010, right? $68.2M to $57.7M on 12/5/2010 and $94.7M to $77.2M on 12/12/2010.

That is a $28M downward adjustment in 2010 blu-ray numbers, even though HMM blu-ray revenues were well under DEG in Q4 2010.
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Old 12-15-2011, 09:35 AM   #577  
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So that is two downward adjustments in a row in Dec 2010, right? $68.2M to $57.7M on 12/5/2010 and $94.7M to $77.2M on 12/12/2010.

That is a $28M downward adjustment in 2010 blu-ray numbers, even though HMM blu-ray revenues were well under DEG in Q4 2010.

That's right, and it makes no sense. Could be that they were adjusting for the one day offset, (since the week ends on a Saturday now and around this time last year they went with the Sun-Sat period), or perhaps the DEG will be revising downward their Q42010 in the next report. Kosty said he knew about and posted the revisions in January, so go figure.

But I think it more likely has to do with the time shift back one day. Remember that HMM reports weekly, and we add up the 13 weeks that correspond closest with the calendar quarterly period. If they started the offset last December, then that would mean that one of those 13 weeks had only six days. Perhaps they took it out of two different weeks, or maybe it was just the week they took out the $17 million. In any case, a day has to be lost somewhere and adjusted accordingly.

Last edited by bruceames; 12-15-2011 at 09:42 AM..
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Old 12-15-2011, 11:31 AM   #578  
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But I think it more likely has to do with the time shift back one day. Remember that HMM reports weekly, and we add up the 13 weeks that correspond closest with the calendar quarterly period. If they started the offset last December, then that would mean that one of those 13 weeks had only six days. Perhaps they took it out of two different weeks, or maybe it was just the week they took out the $17 million. In any case, a day has to be lost somewhere and adjusted accordingly.
Or maybe it is simply HMM putting their thumb on the scale.
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Old 12-15-2011, 08:19 PM   #579  
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Here is a comparison summary of the $10 million plus box office titles for Q1 2012.

Q1 2012 Inventory may be incomplete and some of them don't have release dates yet (other than the month).

Code:
Date____	TBO2012	TBO2011	HMM2011
			
Total____	1538.3	2116.5	394.25
			
1/29/2012	_____	201.2	29.16
1/22/2012	_____	60.7	23.64
1/15/2012	_____	143.3	26.98
1/8/2012	_____	157.7	29.4
January__	626.9	562.9	109.18
			
2/26/2012	_____	258	30.61
2/19/2012	_____	86.2	28.69
2/12/2012	_____	224	26.66
2/5/2012	_____	23	27.18
February__	506.4	591.2	113.14
			
4/1/2012	_____	300.9	47.95
3/25/2012	_____	218	25.33
3/18/2012	_____	154.2	26.14
3/11/2012	_____	177	30.85
3/4/2012	_____	112.3	41.66
March____	405	962.4	171.93



Q1 2012 releases with over $10 million box office.
Code:
Release        	Boxoffice	Title
1/10/2012	25.1	Killer Elite
1/10/2012	14	What's Your Number?
1/17/2012	40.1	Ides of March
1/17/2012	33	Courageous
1/17/2012	28	Abduction
1/24/2012	83.4	Real Steel
1/24/2012	34.8	50/50
1/31/2012	34.6	Drive
1/31/2012	21.3	Dream House
1/31/2012	16.9	Thing
January_	103.4	Paranormal Activity 3

February	246.9	Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1
February	139.5	Puss in Boots
February	51	Footloose
February	35.9	In Time
February	20.1	Three Musketeers
February	13	Rum Diary

March___	108	Hop
March___	75.7	Immortals
March___	64.2	Jack and Jill
March___	56.4	Muppets
March___	32.6	J. Edgar
March___	25.3	Arthur Christmas
March___	25.1	Hugo
March___	17.7	Descendents


.





Q1 2011 releases with over $10 million box office.

Code:
Release Boxoffice	Title
1/4/11	73.0	Dinner For Schmucks
1/4/11	41.0	Last Exorcism, The
1/4/11	26.6	Machete
1/4/11	13.3	Case 39
1/11/11	93.2	Social Network, The
1/11/11	25.1	Alpha and Omega
1/11/11	25.0	Piranha
1/18/11	57.7	Takers
1/25/11	89.5	Red
1/25/11	58.8	Secretariat
1/25/11	45.7	Saw 3D

2/1/11	12.1	Let Me In
2/8/11	84.5	Paranormal Activity 2
2/8/11	53.4	Life as We Know It
2/8/11	37.7	For Colored Girls
2/8/11	25.7	You Again
2/8/11	14.7	My Soul to Take
2/15/11	81.2	Unstoppable
2/22/11	100.5	Due Date
2/25/11	147.9	Megamind

3/1/11	39.0	Burlesque
3/1/11	32.4	Love and Other Drugs
3/1/11	23.1	Faster
3/1/11	17.6	127 Hours
3/8/11	117.2	Jackass 3
3/8/11	31.0	Morning Glory
3/8/11	21.1	Next Three Days, The
3/15/11	92.9	Fighter, The
3/15/11	32.7	Hereafter
3/15/11	27.8	Switch, The
3/22/11	100.2	Yogi Bear
3/22/11	67.6	Tourist, The
3/22/11	30.2	How Do You Know
3/22/11	21.4	Skyline
3/29/11	200.8	Tangled
3/29/11	107.0	Black Swan

Last edited by bruceames; 12-15-2011 at 08:26 PM..
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Old 12-15-2011, 08:24 PM   #580  
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So it looks favorible for blu-ray going into the first quarter of the year then. I would hope so. This year was just dreadful for the first quarter. It would be almost impossible for blu-ray to not do much better, but IMO the 2nd half of the year is gonna be very unforgiving.
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Old 12-15-2011, 08:29 PM   #581  
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So it looks favorible for blu-ray going into the first quarter of the year then. I would hope so. This year was just dreadful for the first quarter. It would be almost impossible for blu-ray to not do much better, but IMO the 2nd half of the year is gonna be very unforgiving.
Actually the known inventory of Q1 titles for 2012 is $578 million less than in 2011, although January looks like a slight improvement. That's why I think it's probably incomplete (particularly March), and I'll update the list with any new titles or firm release dates.
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Old 12-17-2011, 08:51 PM   #582  
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Does any one know how The Hangover II and Cowboys & Aliens are #2 and #1 on the Rentrak RENTAL charts if they don't appear at Netflix or Redbox until January 3rd?

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-relea...135668368.html


Quote:
About Home Video Essentials®
Home Video Essentials is Rentrak's exclusive rental point-of-sale (POS) tracking system, which calculates title-level performance via rental transactions on over 65,000 DVD and video game properties in the brick‑and‑mortar, by-mail/online subscription and kiosk channels across North America. Rentrak is the world's largest processor of rental data, measuring in excess of one billion transactions each year from more than 5,000 storefronts,over 40,000 kiosks and over 24 million by-mail/online disc rental subscriberswithin 72 hours after the close of each business week. Clients are able to identify consumer trends, quantify performance, and benchmark findings against the broader business sector.
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Old 12-18-2011, 11:48 AM   #583  
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Does any one know how The Hangover II and Cowboys & Aliens are #2 and #1 on the Rentrak RENTAL charts if they don't appear at Netflix or Redbox until January 3rd?

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-relea...135668368.html
They did not show up on the HMM Rental charts for the week as part of the Nielsen Videoscan first alert set for the week ending 12/11/11 as one would expect because of the 28 day delay.

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/top...k-ended-121111

It seems that it is some sort of mistake in the data from Rentrak that was some sort of faulty projection and mistake in the rental availability dates. Only other possible explanation is that they are accounting for Blockbuster or other smaller rental chains going around the studio 28 day distribution and buying rental copies directly from retail stores for rental uses. Seems unlikely that would put them on the top of the chart and the Rentrak rental chart there does say week one of release.

You are right it seems very odd.
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Old 12-18-2011, 12:33 PM   #584  
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Quote:

About Home Video Essentials®
Home Video Essentials is Rentrak's exclusive rental point-of-sale (POS) tracking system, which calculates title-level performance via rental transactions on over 65,000 DVD and video game properties in the brick‑and‑mortar, by-mail/online subscription and kiosk channels across North America. Rentrak is the world's largest processor of rental data, measuring in excess of one billion transactions each year from more than 5,000 storefronts, over 40,000 kiosks and over 24 million by-mail/online disc rental subscribers within 72 hours after the close of each business week. Clients are able to identify consumer trends, quantify performance, and benchmark findings against the broader business sector.
The only other thing I can think of is that Rentrak has deeper coverage of Redbox Kiosks so if for some reason either paying more to get those titles in earlier or buying them at retail they may have captured something the other report missed. But that does not seem to be the case here as Redbox online says they are not availablel yet.

The Redbox site says The Hangover II and Cowboys and Aliens are available Jan 3 2012 so its not from Redbox sales.

I agree though it seems strange.
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Old 12-20-2011, 02:15 PM   #585  
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Just did some quick back of the napkin calculations based on The Numbers DVD revenue report, and it looks like the Top 5 BD titles for the 11/11 week did about $47 million in revenue.
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