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Optical (Blu-ray/DVD) and Digital (EST/UV) Sales Thread

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Old 10-25-2011, 06:42 PM   #31  
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Agree on all points. Post 11/11 week is going to show a lot regarding OD strength.

I hope we get more consistent EST reporting once UltraViolet is finished baking.
I hope so! Thanks for the invite from the other forum PS! I notice a lot of old friends that I thought were long gone but they are here and very much still into the hobby !

(I must have been a member on this site in the past as I already have 40 posts, I dont remember this place though, must have been a dream! )

Last edited by TowerGrove; 10-26-2011 at 08:36 PM..
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Old 10-25-2011, 06:57 PM   #32  
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I hope so! Thanks for the invite from the "Other" forum PS! Its a breath of fresh air over here and I notice a lot of old friends that I thought were long gone but they are here and very much still into the hobby !

(I must have been a member on this site in the past as I already have 40 posts, I dont remember this place though, must have been a dream! )

Nice to see you posting here again Towergrove.
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Old 10-25-2011, 09:24 PM   #33  
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I hope so! Thanks for the invite from the "Other" forum PS! Its a breath of fresh air over here and I notice a lot of old friends that I thought were long gone but they are here and very much still into the hobby !

(I must have been a member on this site in the past as I already have 40 posts, I dont remember this place though, must have been a dream! )
Wonderful to see you here!
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Old 10-25-2011, 09:56 PM   #34  
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Here are the HMM vs. The-Numbers Blu-ray revenue comparisons from the last six weeks.

Code:
Totals	291.73	376.83	29.2%
Date	HMM	Numbers	difference
16-Oct	46.42	51.43	10.8%
9-Oct	73.92	102.32	38.4%
2-Oct	42.61	47.50	11.5%
25-Sep	44.91	64.63	43.9%
18-Sep	57.32	79.05	37.9%
11-Sep	26.55	31.90	20.2%
Note that despite The-Numbers site being only the top 10 revenue (HMM is total revenue), it has reported figures higher HMM for the last six weeks in a row, and by an average margin of 29.2%. So obviously they are way high and not at all reliable.

Last edited by bruceames; 10-25-2011 at 10:10 PM..
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Old 10-25-2011, 11:35 PM   #35  
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Damn!!! Those are so far off. Thanks for the data Bruce!!!
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Old 10-26-2011, 12:09 AM   #36  
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Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
Here are the HMM vs. The-Numbers Blu-ray revenue comparisons from the last six weeks.

Code:
Totals	291.73	376.83	29.2%
Date	HMM	Numbers	difference
16-Oct	46.42	51.43	10.8%
9-Oct	73.92	102.32	38.4%
2-Oct	42.61	47.50	11.5%
25-Sep	44.91	64.63	43.9%
18-Sep	57.32	79.05	37.9%
11-Sep	26.55	31.90	20.2%
Note that despite The-Numbers site being only the top 10 revenue (HMM is total revenue), it has reported figures higher HMM for the last six weeks in a row, and by an average margin of 29.2%. So obviously they are way high and not at all reliable.
It has been obvious for some time that The Numbers info was unreliable. Fortunately we can call that out now without fear of censorship for those compensated to promote false numbers.
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Old 10-26-2011, 09:01 AM   #37  
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I think if you took 1/3 off those figures from The-Numbers, it should be sufficient to eliminate most of the fudge factor. After all, the ratio of the error between the titles are all the same (they are all high by the same proportion), since Nielsen reports the first alert data before The-Numbers reports there and they generally correlate to within 1% or so. Since that site started reporting Blu-ray units and revenue, it has reported over 97% of that given by HMM, and it's climbing (of course with 6 weeks in a row over 100%. I would estimate the top 10 sales to be about 2/3 of all Blu-ray sales at most.
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Old 10-26-2011, 04:49 PM   #38  
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No surprise, but it looks like POTC won the week in sales.

Will be interesting to see at what volume!
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Old 10-26-2011, 06:07 PM   #39  
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No surprise, but it looks like POTC won the week in sales.

Will be interesting to see at what volume!

Looks like sales will be disappointing. Week 2 Green Lantern did 34% of week 1 Pirates? That's a lot. I think there's a good chance that Blu-ray will be under 100 million for the week.
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Old 10-26-2011, 08:37 PM   #40  
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The Pirates Disc was BD only correct?
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Old 10-26-2011, 08:53 PM   #41  
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Looks like sales will be disappointing. Week 2 Green Lantern did 34% of week 1 Pirates? That's a lot. I think there's a good chance that Blu-ray will be under 100 million for the week.
Green Lantern did $12 million in Blu-ray sales in it's first week (per "The Numbers" inflated estimate).

Let's say it dropped to $6 million it's second week (which would be only 50% drop off). Not sure about the revenue split, but it looks like POTC did 5:1 in unit numbers.

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/top...k-ended-102311

5 times $6 million would be a $30 million dollar opening week for OD sell through on a $241 million domestic BO film. Not sure if it will come in that low, but I would think that a VERY low total a Top 4 grossing summer action film.
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Old 10-26-2011, 08:55 PM   #42  
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The Pirates Disc was BD only correct?
Yes.

The only OD sell through revenue that POTC will get for release week is from the BD/DVD package.
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Old 10-27-2011, 07:34 AM   #43  
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Quote:
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Green Lantern did $12 million in Blu-ray sales in it's first week (per "The Numbers" inflated estimate).

Let's say it dropped to $6 million it's second week (which would be only 50% drop off). Not sure about the revenue split, but it looks like POTC did 5:1 in unit numbers.

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/top...k-ended-102311

5 times $6 million would be a $30 million dollar opening week for OD sell through on a $241 million domestic BO film. Not sure if it will come in that low, but I would think that a VERY low total a Top 4 grossing summer action film.
Green Lantern was released on a Friday, so the drop off may be slightly less, say $10 million. That would translate to $52.6 in The-Numbers numbers, which after removing the exaggeration, would be around $35 million. That's still very low, less than 1.5 million units. My guess is that we'll see a week around $80 million or so.
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Old 10-27-2011, 10:03 AM   #44  
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Green Lantern was released on a Friday, so the drop off may be slightly less, say $10 million. That would translate to $52.6 in The-Numbers numbers, which after removing the exaggeration, would be around $35 million. That's still very low, less than 1.5 million units. My guess is that we'll see a week around $80 million or so.
Looks like Disney left money on the table with this gimmick.
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Old 10-27-2011, 04:03 PM   #45  
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Looks like Disney left money on the table with this gimmick.
It looks pretty bad right now, assuming the estimate of under 2 million units sold is correct. Normally this would have sold more than double that, perhaps even 6 million or so.

But the verdict is still out until we see how well the DVD does when it gets released next month. Perhaps there are a lot of people waiting to pick that up, since there is that $20 and under mentality that a lot consumers have about buying movies. Pirates BD was $23 at the cheapest location.

It's possible a lot of copies were sold at retail to rentailers, and that would inflate the total somewhat, which would make the numbers for POTC4 seem even worse.

But having to guess, yeah I'd say the experiment was a failure.
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