Optical (Blu-ray/DVD) and Digital (EST/UV) Sales Thread

[TowerGrove]

Originally Posted by bruceames

Maybe by "stabilizing" they mean that the decline is not accelerating anymore? Because the OD decline is very real. It has never left us except for a flat Q3 last year under very favorable YoY box office power conditions. And since the first half of last year was so bad (for that very same reason), having OD down YoY relatively less than last year during the same time, gave the illusion that things are stabilizing.

But of course during any unavoidable decline there will be fluctuations, in this case almost entirely due to the changing box office power conditions. That's why it must be taken into account when looking at the long term rate of decline. I would certainly think that no one has any delusions that OD is not going to continue to decline.

But how low will it decline? That's the question I want to know. Shouldn't we hit a bottom leveling sometime?

[morriscroy]

Originally Posted by TowerGrove

But how low will it decline? That's the question I want to know. Shouldn't we hit a bottom leveling sometime?

For past precedents, there's the bottom leveling of the vinyl lp market during the 1990's and 2000's.

Dunno if blurays will follow a similar trajectory.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by TowerGrove

But how low will it decline? That's the question I want to know. Shouldn't we hit a bottom leveling sometime?

Good question. I think the decline will be very slow and probably won't end up as irrelevant as LPs for at least 10 more years. OD still has significant advantages in every key area except for convenience and digital is nowhere near ready to take over (otherwise the decline would be much faster). But even so OD will continue to decline more due to ownership fatigue rather than something being ready to take its place. Except for TV shows, I think digital is primarily a rental model than one of ownership (which I believe will always be primarily physical), so it's growth potential is limited.

[Lee Stewart]

Originally Posted by bruceames

Good question. I think the decline will be very slow and probably won't end up as irrelevant as LPs for at least 10 more years. OD still has significant advantages in every key area except for convenience and digital is nowhere near ready to take over (otherwise the decline would be much faster). But even so OD will continue to decline more due to ownership fatigue rather than something being ready to take its place. Except for TV shows, I think digital is primarily a rental model than one of ownership (which I believe will always be primarily physical), so it's growth potential is limited.

It's the idea of ownership that is losing it's appeal. You will always have a core of those that purchase, but it continues to decline every year and will do so until it reaches some level. . . My guess - 50% of what it is today.

[TowerGrove]

Originally Posted by Lee Stewart

It's the idea of ownership that is losing it's appeal. You will always have a core of those that purchase, but it continues to decline every year and will do so until it reaches some level. . . My guess - 50% of what it is today.

I guess we will also see increases in digital sell thru as well over the next several years.

[Lee Stewart]

Originally Posted by TowerGrove

I guess we will also see increases in digital sell thru as well over the next several years.

Nott be much as long as the studios have it priced so high.

[morriscroy]

Originally Posted by Lee Stewart

It's the idea of ownership that is losing it's appeal. You will always have a core of those that purchase, but it continues to decline every year and will do so until it reaches some level. . . My guess - 50% of what it is today.

Wonder if this can be further divided into age groups.

For example, are the people who like the "idea of ownership" dying off with not enough younger people taking their places?

[TowerGrove]

Originally Posted by morriscroy

Wonder if this can be further divided into age groups.

For example, are the people who like the "idea of ownership" dying off with not enough younger people taking their places?

Probably. The younger folks don't want to own but then again they will grow up and the question will then be do they want to own as they age? I know many younger people who prefer the ownership model but can find just as many that prefer to rent.
Same goes for home ownership vs rental. Younger folks seem to want to rent. I think it's partially the economic pressures many are under right now.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by morriscroy

Wonder if this can be further divided into age groups.

For example, are the people who like the "idea of ownership" dying off with not enough younger people taking their places?

I don't know about that. I think it's more that collecting in general is a hobby for older people (partly because they have more disposable income), so the younger people will be taking their place eventually.

I think OD is highly collectible still, but that what really doesn't help is seeing the rapid turnover of formats. The idea of collecting is that you own it with the intent of using for life, but what we're seeing is that a better version usually comes out after 5-10 years. So a lot people think, what's the point unless you watch it several times over in just a few years. And that rarely happens unless you have an obsession about a particular movie or if it's for the kids who often like to watch their favorite movies over and over.

But I think most OD sales are not about consciously buying to collect but rather as impulse or convenience buys (particularly for new releases). For some people it's worth it to buy it off the shelf at $18 (and hope they watch it at least a few times) rather than worrying about returning it later. $20 and under is impulse buy price territory, so OD will continue to be fed quite well from this type of purchase.

[Lee Stewart]

Originally Posted by bruceames

I don't know about that. I think it's more that collecting in general is a hobby for older people (partly because they have more disposable income), so the younger people will be taking their place eventually.

I think OD is highly collectible still, but that what really doesn't help is seeing the rapid turnover of formats. The idea of collecting is that you own it with the intent of using for life, but what we're seeing is that a better version usually comes out after 5-10 years. So a lot people think, what's the point unless you watch it several times over in just a few years. And that rarely happens unless you have an obsession about a particular movie or if it's for the kids who often like to watch their favorite movies over and over.

But I think most OD sales are not about consciously buying to collect but rather as impulse or convenience buys (particularly for new releases). For some people it's worth it to buy it off the shelf at $18 (and hope they watch it at least a few times) rather than worrying about returning it later. $20 and under is impulse buy price territory, so OD will continue to be fed quite well from this type of purchase.

There are so many ways that people can now entertain themselves that don't require watching content from an OD. Plus you have the "impulse regret" reaction - they look at all the movies they bought and realize most of them have only been watched once.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by Lee Stewart

There are so many ways that people can now entertain themselves that don't require watching content from an OD. Plus you have the "impulse regret" reaction - they look at all the movies they bought and realize most of them have only been watched once.

That's true Lee, good point. OD purchases generally don't hold up to the test of time.

[morriscroy]

With the prices of OD quite low these days, for some individuals it is not much different than collecting baseball cards (or Pokemon cards).

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by morriscroy

With the prices of OD quite low these days, for some individuals it is not much different than collecting baseball cards (or Pokemon cards).

They have to price the catalog low to tempt people to add to their growing collection. The price gap between new release and catalog continues to grow (with new release staying constant and catalog falling).

One thing's for sure, the collectors will always be here and there not going to want to collect stuff in the cloud or on hard drives. They're going to want to collect something they can touch.

[Malanthius]

Originally Posted by bruceames

They have to price the catalog low to tempt people to add to their growing collection. The price gap between new release and catalog continues to grow (with new release staying constant and catalog falling).

One thing's for sure, the collectors will always be here and there not going to want to collect stuff in the cloud or on hard drives. They're going to want to collect something they can touch.

That's true. Question is, will there be enough collectors out there to maintain a market for physical? Can physical remain viable in the future? That would also mean Bluray is not the last physical media. I'm not so sure Bruce. People have already accepted collecting digital songs. I don't think it's too far fetched that people will also collect movies this way. At some point as long as you have that title available for you to watch when you want to watch it, you may not care. I know I'm moving in that direction myself. And I've been a collector. There are a lot of benefits to not having a physical collection. Space and convience are pretty big advantages. And if your collection is stored in the cloud, it's pretty safe. Especially form scratches and damage.

[morriscroy]

Originally Posted by Malanthius

At some point as long as you have that title available for you to watch when you want to watch it, you may not care. I know I'm moving in that direction myself.

Years ago I use to think this way when it came to movies. Through most of the 1990's and 2000's, I didn't really place much value in owning movies. As far as I was concerned in those days, movies were largely the equivalent of "throwaway" disposable pop culture. (Not much different than eating at McDonalds or reading the daily newspaper).