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Old 11-28-2011, 11:01 PM   #331  
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Speaking of being optimistic or not. Did you see Kostys overzealous vote for the harry potter week? He was thinking almost double. Lowest Vote won. It all makes sense now!
This is what happens when you believe thenumbers and cs trowbridge.
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Old 11-28-2011, 11:07 PM   #332  
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With the Kindle and iPad sparking so much CE growth, I don't know if Santa can save OD this year.
With that much in new revenue streams, something's gotta give. I don't think OD will be excluded from the massive siphoning of dollars those two items are going to cause.
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Old 11-28-2011, 11:12 PM   #333  
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With that much in new revenue streams, something's gotta give. I don't think OD will be excluded from the massive siphoning of dollars those two items are going to cause.
Especially since we know games ARE having a good Q4 due to some extraordinary releases.
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Old 11-28-2011, 11:14 PM   #334  
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With that much in new revenue streams, something's gotta give. I don't think OD will be excluded from the massive siphoning of dollars those two items are going to cause.
Tablets are only going to get more and more popular. Toddlers can use them they are so easy. Instant win.
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Old 11-28-2011, 11:17 PM   #335  
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Looks like I will have to revise down my YOY growth for blu-ray. I expected 25%, but now it is looking more like it will end up at around 20% or less for 2011. Yikes!!!
To maintain the 25% it is now, Blu-ray would have to average over $100 million the next 6 weeks. Not likely.

To reach the 40% growth some were expecting, Blu-ray would need to average $143 million the last 6 weeks. Impossible.
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Old 11-28-2011, 11:22 PM   #336  
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Tablets are only going to get more and more popular. Toddlers can use them they are so easy. Instant win.
Toddlers could probably get the hang of them easier than I could.

I'll stick with my android. I have it wifi hotspot enabled and if I need to type something longer than 2 sentences I'll do it on the laptop (or on my desktop if I'm at home.

I just need to have a decent sized keyboard to type decently, but the real problem is that I use the dvorak keyboard layout and I don't think those are available on the tablets AFAIK.
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Old 11-28-2011, 11:25 PM   #337  
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Especially since we know games ARE having a good Q4 due to some extraordinary releases.

So Ipad and Kindle cleaning house and gaming having a great Q4. Not gonna be a whole lot of green left for OD presents.
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Old 11-28-2011, 11:40 PM   #338  
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So Ipad and Kindle cleaning house and gaming having a great Q4. Not gonna be a whole lot of green left for OD presents.
Seems that way.
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Old 11-29-2011, 12:09 AM   #339  
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Toddlers could probably get the hang of them easier than I could.
My 2 year old nephew was having a blast showing me her iPad on Thanksgiving. She knew multi-touch gestures and was swiping to other apps when I asked her. I was pretty blown away.
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Old 11-29-2011, 12:31 AM   #340  
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http://www.fool.com/investing/high-g...-50-years.aspx

This says it all.

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The Most Disruptive Product of the Past 50 Years

By Eric Bleeker and Jeremy Phillips | More Articles
November 28, 2011 | Comments (0)


The following video is part of our "Motley Fool Conversations" series, in which Motley Fool senior technology analyst Eric Bleeker and chief technology officer Jeremy Phillips discuss emerging trends in technology.

In today's edition, Jeremy and Eric look at a study showing that the iPad is now the most desired product for both kids and people over 13. Although tablets, especially those not made by Apple, might not have lived up to expectations in 2011, their disruptive potential remains enormous. With buyers spending more on tablets than on LCD televisions, the devices have the potential to revolutionize not only gaming and computing, but also how media is consumed. Services such as the Internet might have more overall influence, but as a product, the group of industries the tablet can disrupt looms large in today's technology landscape.
Make sure to play the video attatched. Very informative and 100% accurate.
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Old 11-29-2011, 12:52 AM   #341  
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To maintain the 25% it is now, Blu-ray would have to average over $100 million the next 6 weeks. Not likely.

To reach the 40% growth some were expecting, Blu-ray would need to average $143 million the last 6 weeks. Impossible.
The remaining weeks in 2010 weeks 8-13 HMM had reported as $478.21 M or just under $80 M per week. Blu-ray would have to sustain about a 25% growth YoY in those weeks to maintain 25% growth rate for the year. Blu-ray is currently about 50% up YoY in the 4Q and ended up in the 3Q 50% in the HMM YoY statistics and 58% in the DEG statistics.

HMM was also at the end of the 3Q running 8% under the DEG statistics and if that carries through in the 4Q then a lower growth rate in the HMM statistics would equate to a higher DEG reported YoY growth number as well.

Of course the remaining 4Q weeks have a higher box office strength for 2010 over 2011 in the last 6 weeks but that does not matter as much in the higher volume Black Friday through Christmas shopping season. Increased Blu-ray hardware sales and a larger user base of Blu-ray owners will be a factor as well in the next six weeks as well as retailer support for the Blu-ray format.

Should be interesting.
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Old 11-29-2011, 01:05 AM   #342  
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To maintain the 25% it is now, Blu-ray would have to average over $100 million the next 6 weeks. Not likely.
Currently Blu-ray is up about 25% YoY in the HMM revenue statistics.

Last year HMM reported the last 6 weeks as Blu-ray revenues:

83.80
57.70
77.20
99.00
109.27
51.24

Its likely that Black Friday and the two weeks before Christmas will be over $100 M this year so that 25% goal would depend on how the other three weeks performed and how much over the Black Friday and Christmas weeks were.

We will probably get a better idea when we get the Black Friday Sun-Sat results.
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Old 11-29-2011, 09:19 AM   #343  
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The remaining weeks in 2010 weeks 8-13 HMM had reported as $478.21 M or just under $80 M per week. Blu-ray would have to sustain about a 25% growth YoY in those weeks to maintain 25% growth rate for the year. Blu-ray is currently about 50% up YoY in the 4Q and ended up in the 3Q 50% in the HMM YoY statistics and 58% in the DEG statistics.
Q3 and YTD Q4 is also up $483 million in box office lead-in over 2010.

And that does not include the very significant catalog releases during that time, including all 6 Star Wars movies (which is arguably the most valuable catalog series) and Jurassic Park.

It also does not directly factor in the Blu-ray REVENUE ONLY period for POTC 4, the #4 movie of the year - the $241 million domestic grossing Disney summer tent pole, of a wildly successful franchise.


The studios basically shot their wad in support of BD in 2011, and we are looking at very mediocre growth. That is also during a time when we are likely to see OD slink its way even further down the toilet.

And the year is not over yet. I would not be surprised at this point for BD to slink back to H1 level growth for the rest of the year, and OD to get hammered in the remaining weeks.

No amount of PR spin is going to cover up the impact of that lost revenue for the studios. And I know there will be plenty of PR spin coming over the next few weeks.
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Old 11-29-2011, 09:40 AM   #344  
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Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
Currently Blu-ray is up about 25% YoY in the HMM revenue statistics.

Last year HMM reported the last 6 weeks as Blu-ray revenues:

83.80
57.70
77.20
99.00
109.27
51.24

Its likely that Black Friday and the two weeks before Christmas will be over $100 M this year so that 25% goal would depend on how the other three weeks performed and how much over the Black Friday and Christmas weeks were.

We will probably get a better idea when we get the Black Friday Sun-Sat results.
These are the results I have. I checked the archives of the ones where are figures differ and they do match up. I did make a mistake though by grabbing the wrong set of weeks, so actually they add up to $505.87 million, rather than $490 million. So that would drive up the aformentioned requirements to reach 25% and 40% $2-3 million more per week.

83.48 (11/28)
68.16
94.72
99
109.27
51.24

It's possible that BF and xmas sales will keep the last 6 weeks from going negative, but those types of sales are still a minority of revenue compared to what new release sales typically bring in (maybe 40% or so). So box office difference will still matter very much. After all BF and xmas are being compared to last year, which by your own account was very strong.
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Old 11-29-2011, 09:41 AM   #345  
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But BD does not have any big hitters coming out in 2011. Unless people think Kung Fu Panda 2 and Smurfs will be huge sellers (hint - they won't).
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