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Old 11-28-2011, 09:51 PM   #316  
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At the beginning of the year, I thought BD would do about 40% growth this year.

At the end of H1 (with single digit BD growth), I thought that it would end up closer to 20%.

Looks like I may have been too optimistic at the beginning of the year, but right on target after the trend lines setup during the first half.
Looks like you're gonna be close. To get to 20% EOY, Blu-ray needs to average 6% growth the last 6 weeks. That' a tall order though given the BO deficit. I'm not optimistic, especially given the results of the last 2 weeks. I would bet it's going to be negative, now.
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Old 11-28-2011, 09:53 PM   #317  
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That 26% is also with
- 4 Week DVD Delays for retail
- 28+ Rental Delays (if not longer)
- Nearly every New Release BD being packed with a DVD and/or DC/UV.
- 3D Premium (which is supposed to be selling like hotcakes lol)
- Millions more BD players old

What the heck is going on? Is it...true? People are using their BD players for other things like playing their existing collection? Streaming Netflix? Vudu?

How will retailers respond to these numbers? A shrink in OD is clearly in the very near future.
Packing in DVDs can only help because the studios were charging the same without the DVD freebie. So sales would obviously be worse if BD had to "go it alone".
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Old 11-28-2011, 09:55 PM   #318  
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Looks like you're gonna be close. To get to 20% EOY, Blu-ray needs to average 6% growth the last 6 weeks. That' a tall order though given the BO deficit. I'm not optimistic, especially given the results of the last 2 weeks. I would bet it's going to be negative, now.
Look at the "big" titles coming out for the rest of 2011:
Kung Fu Panda 2
Cowboys and Aliens
Smurfs
The Help
Hangover II
Final Destination 5

Yeah...nothing 'huge'. All downhill after HP7.2
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Old 11-28-2011, 09:57 PM   #319  
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Packing in DVDs can only help because the studios were charging the same without the DVD freebie. So sales would obviously be worse if BD had to "go it alone".
Correct. So BD sales would likely be higher if they included a DVD as it might turn someone who would buy the DVD only SKU into buying the BD Combo SKU. Hence POTC4 (which we all now know failed).

Keep in mind, studios could have easily ommited the DVD and simply lowered the MSRP of the BD. So a lower price for you and me. But instead they pack them with additional discs that will likely never be seen (mine all end up on eBay).
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Old 11-28-2011, 09:58 PM   #320  
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That 26% is also with
- 4 Week DVD Delays for retail
- 28+ Rental Delays (if not longer)
- Nearly every New Release BD being packed with a DVD and/or DC/UV.
- 3D Premium (which is supposed to be selling like hotcakes lol)
- Millions more BD players old

What the heck is going on? Is it...true? People are using their BD players for other things like playing their existing collection? Streaming Netflix? Vudu?

How will retailers respond to these numbers? A shrink in OD is clearly in the very near future.
It is also with some major big guns from catalog being released, including the 6-disc Star Wars collection (which is probably the crown jewel in catalog).

It is also with an EXCLUSIVE BD-revenue window for a major tent-pole summer release of a ridiculously successful franchise.

And it is with the increased cannibalization of DVD sales, resulting in what looks to be a significant downturn in OD sell through revenue.

The studios could not have possibly done more to support Blu-ray, and it still looks to be limping into a mediocre year of barely topping $2 billion in sell through with a ceiling approaching!
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Old 11-28-2011, 10:00 PM   #321  
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Correct. So BD sales would likely be higher if they included a DVD as it might turn someone who would buy the DVD only SKU into buying the BD Combo SKU. Hence POTC4 (which we all now know failed).

Keep in mind, studios could have easily ommited the DVD and simply lowered the MSRP of the BD. So a lower price for you and me. But instead they pack them with additional discs that will likely never be seen (mine all end up on eBay).
Yes, but if they did that, then the street price of a Blu-ray and DVD SKU would be the same, and would hurt the perceived value of Blu-ray by making it seem it's no better than DVD.

Basically the BD combo pack has replaced the DVD 2 disc SKU that disappeared a year or so ago.
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Old 11-28-2011, 10:04 PM   #322  
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Looks like you're gonna be close. To get to 20% EOY, Blu-ray needs to average 6% growth the last 6 weeks. That' a tall order though given the BO deficit. I'm not optimistic, especially given the results of the last 2 weeks. I would bet it's going to be negative, now.
You know I previously disagreed with you on the assessment of negative BD growth in the coming weeks simply because of the cannibalization of DVD.

But now I think I might have to agree. If Harry Potter can perform so poorly, even while cannibalizing from DVD (and OD showing such significant declines), then it is very possible that we will see more than a couple of weeks of negative growth from now until the end of the year.


This is crazy to watch.
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Old 11-28-2011, 10:19 PM   #323  
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It is also with some major big guns from catalog being released, including the 6-disc Star Wars collection (which is probably the crown jewel in catalog).

It is also with an EXCLUSIVE BD-revenue window for a major tent-pole summer release of a ridiculously successful franchise.

And it is with the increased cannibalization of DVD sales, resulting in what looks to be a significant downturn in OD sell through revenue.

The studios could not have possibly done more to support Blu-ray, and it still looks to be limping into a mediocre year of barely topping $2 billion in sell through with a ceiling approaching!
The only really big guns left are:

Titanic
Indiana Jones trilogy
E.T.
Finding Nemo

Nothing else I can see would move big enough numbers to compare to a typical solid new release title (mid range of course, even Star Wars or LOTR EE can't touch a top tier title like Captain America or Cars 2).

Last edited by bruceames; 11-28-2011 at 10:22 PM..
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Old 11-28-2011, 10:21 PM   #324  
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Looks like you're gonna be close. To get to 20% EOY, Blu-ray needs to average 6% growth the last 6 weeks. That' a tall order though given the BO deficit. I'm not optimistic, especially given the results of the last 2 weeks. I would bet it's going to be negative, now.
Speaking of being optimistic or not. Did you see Kostys overzealous vote for the harry potter week? He was thinking almost double. Lowest Vote won. It all makes sense now!
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Old 11-28-2011, 10:21 PM   #325  
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You know I previously disagreed with you on the assessment of negative BD growth in the coming weeks simply because of the cannibalization of DVD.

But now I think I might have to agree. If Harry Potter can perform so poorly, even while cannibalizing from DVD (and OD showing such significant declines), then it is very possible that we will see more than a couple of weeks of negative growth from now until the end of the year.


This is crazy to watch.
True, it seems every week I'm guessing high, but now we're getting to the xmas factor, where people buy OD for gifts and who knows how much that will bring over last year.
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Old 11-28-2011, 10:29 PM   #326  
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True, it seems every week I'm guessing high, but now we're getting to the xmas factor, where people buy OD for gifts and who knows how much that will bring over last year.
With the Kindle and iPad sparking so much CE growth, I don't know if Santa can save OD this year.
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Old 11-28-2011, 10:31 PM   #327  
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True, it seems every week I'm guessing high, but now we're getting to the xmas factor, where people buy OD for gifts and who knows how much that will bring over last year.
And I thought $80 million was reasonable on the LOWER end.

$54.22 is laying a turd.

I don't know how anyone who estimated above $75 million for the week can honestly say that the performance was anything other than a train wreck.
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Old 11-28-2011, 10:34 PM   #328  
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Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
The only really big guns left are:

Titanic
Indiana Jones trilogy
E.T.
Finding Nemo

Nothing else I can see would move big enough numbers to compare to a typical solid new release title (mid range of course, even Star Wars or LOTR EE can't touch a top tier title like Captain America or Cars 2).
Titanic is hardly a big gun. If Scarface wasn't, Titanic won't be. The BD demographic won't be buying that one... (OMG IN 3D!!)

Indy...who knows. It's been delayed since 2007.

E.T. and Nemo would be average sellers. I don't see them as being huge hits.
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Old 11-28-2011, 10:36 PM   #329  
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I don't know how anyone who estimated above $75 million for the week can honestly say that the performance was anything other than a train wreck.
Well, someone is already on disaster control. The excuses will be great.
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Old 11-28-2011, 10:55 PM   #330  
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BD with 6 weeks left is at 25.9% YoY, and given the huge box office deficit the remainder of the year (about $650 million total, or, about 30% less than last year), I see no place it can go but down.

Last year those 6 weeks did $490 million. That's an average of $81.67 million per week that Blu-ray will have to do just to break even.
Looks like I will have to revise down my YOY growth for blu-ray. I expected 25%, but now it is looking more like it will end up at around 20% or less for 2011. Yikes!!!
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