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Old 06-13-2012, 11:20 PM   #3271  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chipvideo View Post
So it looks like Kosty was wrong about why it was a bad quarter. Box office was only down 4.4% for that YOY comparison yet bd had it worst quarter of the year.

The reason I asked this question to begin with is this year the YOY is down and that is from an already weak comparable last year time frame. That is bad news for the format.
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Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
Well the TBO metric obviously does include the BO of both Avatar and Alice, so those titles are accounted for in the comparison.
Of course, those titles are included in the TBO math, but you miss the point. Major tent pole titles sell more units than smaller releases. Titles that are more than $100 M are promoted more and are going to get more units sold than many other smaller titles that add up to $100 M that do not promoted and do not sell many units as all like major new releases. The TBO metric is not the only story. The total TBO is not that well correlated with home video sales performance for many reasons. Its a clue and a rough factor but over the short term its misleading.


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It is true though that 2012 Q2 was more top heavy than in 2011, but whether top heavy titles take in more than their share of revenue (compared to the box office), is up for debate. If you use The-Numbers as a comparative source of week one sales revenue, you'll find that Avatar actually had a lower ratio of video revenue / box office than did many other lesser titles.
Yep. Once you get to a certain point, like for a mega hit like Avatar or Titanic back in the day or even Twilight Saga now, a lot of the box office results is from repeat viewing by the same consumers or low involvement people wanting to see what the fuss is about.

So some of that box office performance strength over $150 or $200 has diminishing returns in its conversion to home video. The people that saw Avatar or Titanic multiple times in the theater are not going to buy multiple copies on home video.

The conversion rate for a mega hit will just be expected to be lower from box office to home video units sold and revenues generated.


Quote:
So it would appear that the conversion ratio (how well it does on HV relative to its box office) was actually skewed by the 3D BO revenue. This 3D BO revenue was of course accounted for as well in the TBO figures, so it could be argued the other way that the BO comparison (down 4.4%) is skewed against 2011 because of the BO "fluff" by Avatar.
Yep. The box office 3D premium is fat by the muscle of the box office performance as it inflates that number for TBO revenue but it does not add butts in the seats that might want to buy it n home video or really show true demand compared to a non 3D title.
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Old 06-14-2012, 04:20 AM   #3272  
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Originally Posted by mikemorel View Post
Roku CEO: Blu-ray will be finished in 4 years

Roku CEO does not yet realize (but soon will) that there are some very sensitive, high volume, blu-ray message board posters that will take umbrage with those remarks.
This was also in the article:

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However, he didn’t mention that the company missed its projected sales goal by 500,000 units.
His company misses even their own projections. I wonder if the ROKU has peaked? They were off by many many units but he didnt mention this in his interview. Smoke and mirrors? I would like to see numbers over the next several quarters. Im hearing that Netflix may be slowing to a trickle as well when it comes to new subs.

On that note im looking forward to purchasing one for my PLEX being served to our pub television.

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Old 06-14-2012, 06:00 AM   #3273  
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Originally Posted by mikemorel View Post
He might be right, but I'd say the same could easily be said about Roku.

He's likely picked Blu-Ray players because of all the different devices which bypass the need for a Roku box, it's the only one he could make such a statement about without getting laughed off the stage.

Of course no-one is likely to buy a console just for streaming, but with all those consoles already out there, plus smart TVs and Blu-Ray players, how big is their remaining market? Streaming boxes is what Roku do, and streaming boxes have never set the world alight, even before most of their functionality was available for "free", embedded in other devices.

Netflix have always known this, Vudu learned it fairly early on. I'm not sure whether the latest Apple TV has changed Apple's opinion that streaming boxes are just a hobby, it seems to have fair-to-midding sales, but I suspect they probably still view it as a bit of a ginger stepchild next to their far more successful 'i' products.

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Old 06-14-2012, 11:36 AM   #3274  
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Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
Of course, those titles are included in the TBO math, but you miss the point. Major tent pole titles sell more units than smaller releases. Titles that are more than $100 M are promoted more and are going to get more units sold than many other smaller titles that add up to $100 M that do not promoted and do not sell many units as all like major new releases. The TBO metric is not the only story. The total TBO is not that well correlated with home video sales performance for many reasons. Its a clue and a rough factor but over the short term its misleading.
22 weeks is not short term.

You are making the assumption that the box office to home video conversion ratio is significantly higher on $100 million plus titles, and I don't think that is the case. Two $50 million BO titles could outsell a single $100 million title.

Look at the HMM OD top 20 Avatar week for example. Avatar's index of course was 100, and it's BO was $745 million. The #2 title was Crazy Heart. It's index was 4.96 and its box office was $39.25 million. If you do the math, you'll find the Avatar sold 20.16 times more copies, but its box office was 18.98 times higher. That means Avatar's week 1 conversion ratio was only 6.2% higher than Crazy Heart.

There are lots of examples like this. All you have to do is compare a week where the titles are both new and one did over $100 million and the other did between $25 and $100 million. Then you compare the ratio of their indexes (sales) to the ratio of their box office.

Just picking another at random, week ending 10/30/11:

title-->index-->box office--> comparative conversion ratio (% higher or lower)
Captain America-->100-->$176.56-->-10.0%
Winnie the Pooh-->16.81-->$26.69

So Winnie the Pooh actually sold better than Captain America, relative to its box office.

So what is misleading is actually cherry picking top titles to use in lieu of the TBO indicators that we have been using this whole time.
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Old 06-14-2012, 01:33 PM   #3275  
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Here's the Blu-ray Top 4 for the week ending 06/10/12

I don't think I ever saw a distribution like that, at least not in a non holiday sales week.


Top 4 Blu-ray

Code:
100.00  John Carter	Disney	
 95.69  Act of Valor	Fox	
 86.08  Safe House	Universal	
 49.15  Journey 2: The Mysterious Island	Warner
Top 4 DVD+BD titles

Code:
60%	 100.00  John Carter
59% 	  97.75  Act of Valor
54%	  96.70  Safe House
40%	  74.95  Journey 2: The Mysterious Island






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Old 06-14-2012, 03:34 PM   #3276  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
Here's the Blu-ray Top 4 for the week ending 06/10/12

I don't think I ever saw a distribution like that, at least not in a non holiday sales week.


Top 4 Blu-ray

Code:
100.00  John Carter	Disney	
 95.69  Act of Valor	Fox	
 86.08  Safe House	Universal	
 49.15  Journey 2: The Mysterious Island	Warner
Top 4 DVD+BD titles

Code:
60%	 100.00  John Carter
59% 	  97.75  Act of Valor
54%	  96.70  Safe House
40%	  74.95  Journey 2: The Mysterious Island
Well how about that. The two $100 million plus titles that are worthy of making your list of representative titles, just got owned by two titles that didn't even break $75 million. Oops, that's not supposed to happen.
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Old 06-14-2012, 04:43 PM   #3277  
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Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
Well how about that. The two $100 million plus titles that are worthy of making your list of representative titles, just got owned by two titles that didn't even break $75 million. Oops, that's not supposed to happen.
Fancy that. You are taking exactly the wrong message from the observed results.

My point is exactly reinforced by those results and yet your own biases blind you to the obvious.

My point has been at its core is that the box office performance of titles has a pretty poor correlation to home video results and that the specific features of individual releases in genre and other factors greatly influence the home video performance.

I never stated that strong releases could outperform their box office, its just that they usually do not have as effect if they are under $100 M. Its not like they were $25 M or less titles that you are trying to add up and gain some significance from. But these are hardly minor titles and they are strong Blu-ray genres as well.

Journey 2 and Safe House will also do substantial home video sales as well. But just because in this case the Blu-ray friendly genre titles here that were $70 M titles would not have made the $100 M list does not mean that paradigm was not valid.

In this case both John Carter and Act of Valor are very favorable genre action movies for Blu-ray and John Carter in particular had the marketing campaign of a $100 M or greater tent pole. Act of Valor is a very Blu-ray friendly title as well that is an unique military action shooter that is PS3 genre friendly .

Its not surprising that they outperform their box office results and would act as normal $100 M + releases and out perform slightly Safe House. We have not seen many powerful Blu-ray friendly genre titles so far this year like them at all.

But that's exactly the point. The box office performance is only one factor of many that effect home video results yet you seem to be overly relaying out in your arguments these days.
In this specific case for these releases they are probably going to out perform their box office pedigree and do well as major action titles on Blu-ray.
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Old 06-14-2012, 04:52 PM   #3278  
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Blu-ray Share for Top 20 Sellers Week Ending 06/10/12


Just under half of all the Top 20 Sellers units sold this week were Blu-ray

48.57% Top 20 Sellers Blu-ray Marketshare.





3 titles did not have Blu-ray skus.

Code:
 Blu-ray Share for Title	Genre	Title

Blu-ray Share for Title	Genre	Title

60.24%	Sci-Fi	John Carter
58.97%	Action	Act of Valor
53.62%	Action	Safe House
39.50%	Adventure	Journey 2: The Mysterious Island
32.47%	Drama	Breaking Bad: The Complete Fourth Season
25.60%	Fantasy	True Blood: The Complete Fourth Season
34.58%	Drama	Red Tails
0.00%	Drama	Burn Notice: Season Five
27.04%	Animated	The Secret World of Arrietty
40.49%	Action	Machine Gun Preacher
90.95%	Sci-Fi	Alien Anthology
42.23%	Sci-Fi	Falling Skies: The Complete First Season
43.74%	Thriller	The Grey
28.52%	Comedy	This Means War
39.06%	Thriller	Man on a Ledge
0.00%	Drama	White Collar: The Complete Third Season
37.43%	Animated	Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa
0.00%	Comedy	Doc Martin: Series 5
39.54%	Animated	Madagascar
22.32%	Sci-Fi	Men in Black

Last edited by Kosty; 06-14-2012 at 05:03 PM..
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Old 06-14-2012, 04:54 PM   #3279  
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It was a pretty strong week for Blu-ray marketshare in general in the Nielsen Videoscan first alert report.


Blu-ray Share for Top 50 Sellers Week Ending 06/10/12





Last edited by Kosty; 06-14-2012 at 05:05 PM..
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Old 06-14-2012, 05:09 PM   #3280  
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Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
Fancy that. You are taking exactly the wrong message from the observed results.

My point is exactly reinforced by those results and yet your own biases blind you to the obvious.

My point has been at its core is that the box office performance of titles has a pretty poor correlation to home video results and that the specific features of individual releases in genre and other factors greatly influence the home video performance.

I never stated that strong releases could outperform their box office, its just that they usually do not have as effect if they are under $100 M. Its not like they were $25 M or less titles that you are trying to add up and gain some significance from. But these are hardly minor titles and they are strong Blu-ray genres as well.

Journey 2 and Safe House will also do substantial home video sales as well. But just because in this case the Blu-ray friendly genre titles here that were $70 M titles would not have made the $100 M list does not mean that paradigm was not valid.

In this case both John Carter and Act of Valor are very favorable genre action movies for Blu-ray and John Carter in particular had the marketing campaign of a $100 M or greater tent pole. Act of Valor is a very Blu-ray friendly title as well that is an unique military action shooter that is PS3 genre friendly .

Its not surprising that they outperform their box office results and would act as normal $100 M + releases and out perform slightly Safe House. We have not seen many powerful Blu-ray friendly genre titles so far this year like them at all.

But that's exactly the point. The box office performance is only one factor of many that effect home video results yet you seem to be overly relaying out in your arguments these days.
In this specific case for these releases they are probably going to out perform their box office pedigree and do well as major action titles on Blu-ray.
My point is that the TBO is far more representative of the release strength than your list of $100 million plus titles. When you get 22 weeks of data, comparative strength and genre of releases largely cancel out and you have relatively accurate measuring tool.

However, I do understand your aversion to the TBO metric when it doesn't work in your favor and your subsequent retreat to the $100 million lists. Unfortunately for you though this last chart clearly shows that it is very misleading when the under $100 million titles are not included. I think the $100 million BO metric carries a certain mystique for you, no?
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Last edited by bruceames; 06-14-2012 at 05:14 PM..
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Old 06-14-2012, 05:26 PM   #3281  
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Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
My point is that the TBO is far more representative of the release strength than your list of $100 million plus titles. When you get 22 weeks of data, comparative strength and genre of releases largely cancel out and you have relatively accurate measuring tool.

However, I do understand your aversion to the TBO metric when it doesn't work in your favor and your subsequent retreat to the $100 million lists. Unfortunately for you though this last chart clearly shows that it is very misleading when the under $100 million titles are not included. I think the $100 million BO metric carries a certain mystique for you, no?
I have no aversion to any of the data, I like it all.

Every metric tells a bit of the story.

I never said that a tracking of $100 M plus titles was all and everything that was to be said about box office performance tracking to home video sales performance.

This week proves my point that TBO tracking is only a rough guide and its the specific titles that make the difference.

Its hardly surprising that these particular $70 M titles are performing as well as $100 M+ box office titles, but they are exceptions to the rule because of their unique factors.

John Carter not only because of its genre but also its tent pole marketing campaign and Act of Valor because of its real life military heroism and military shooter stuff.

That's the first time in this year we have seen real outperforming titles like that. I never said there were not exceptions. These are two.


But they still were prominent $70 M+ titles here as well. Its not the same as you adding up tiny $10 M and less titles into a cumulative TBO metric or ignoring the fact that some titles do better than others and its not just how the cumulative TBO adds up over time.

Quote:
However, I do understand your aversion to the TBO metric when it doesn't work in your favor and your subsequent retreat to the $100 million lists
The next two weeks the cumulative TBO metric YoY will not change much at all but its probable that the Blu-ray and OD YoY revenue metrics will get noticeably better even with little to no change in the TBO.

Quote:
I think the $100 million BO metric carries a certain mystique for you, no?
Perhaps its because the studios and retailers have seen a long history of those tent pole type titles performing well above other lessor titles on home video and that's why promotional and advertising goes to support their release.z

Its also because I can also see their impact on the statistics while your total TBO metric has such a poor correlation to the actual results we see that you constantly say you are mystified on the results we see so far this year. For you to relay on using a total TBO metric as your favorable number when it explains so little that we have seen seems illogical to me as well.

Its important to observe and see what that number is but at this time of the season it simply gets overwhelmed by individual titles and their home video performance. The mix and genre of major titles as another thing to consider explains what we see a lot more.

Last edited by Kosty; 06-14-2012 at 05:33 PM..
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Old 06-14-2012, 05:38 PM   #3282  
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My point is that the TBO is far more representative of the release strength than your list of $100 million plus titles. When you get 22 weeks of data, comparative strength and genre of releases largely cancel out and you have relatively accurate measuring tool.
Its still 22 weeks with relatively few major titles in them in this slower seasonal time of the year. Its too soon for things to cancel out. For example we have seen few major Blu-ray friendly genre tentpoles so far this year.


This week and next week will start canceling that out and the YoY metrics for Blu-ray will likely start to get better in the next few weeks as well. But you will not see that in the cumulative TBO numbers as those will not change much in the weeks coming up, even though Blu-ray's stats will probably continue to rise from the floor we have seen earlier in this quarter.
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Old 06-14-2012, 05:43 PM   #3283  
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Unfortunately for you though this last chart clearly shows that it is very misleading when the under $100 million titles are not included
I'm not sure if misleading is appropriate. It still explained the results we have seen this year better than your TBO figures. The $100 M list is just one sort of the data and it obviously does not tell the whole story. Just as its misleading to include all of the tiny titles in the statistics that do not affect the home video sales as much at all either.

In this case, we seem to have exceptional $70 M titles that are leading home video sales this week and are performing like $ 100 M plus titles, but we have really not seen that at all this year. Having exceptions come up does not invalidate a way of organizing things even if its not perfect as a model.
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Old 06-14-2012, 05:56 PM   #3284  
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Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
I'm not sure if misleading is appropriate. It still explained the results we have seen this year better than your TBO figures. The $100 M list is just one sort of the data and it obviously does not tell the whole story. Just as its misleading to include all of the tiny titles in the statistics that do not affect the home video sales as much at all either.

In this case, we seem to have exceptional $70 M titles that are leading home video sales this week and are performing like $ 100 M plus titles, but we have really not seen that at all this year. Having exceptions come up does not invalidate a way of organizing things even if its not perfect as a model.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bruceames
I'm using both the performance of the $25 million plus list of titles to verify that the genre mix and BO distribution is not more favorable to one year over the other, and then using TBO as the measuring stick once I've established that the mixes of both years are comparably strong. What are you using?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty
I think that its a usual measure to look at but its not as predictive of the results we have seen so far as the mix of $100 M+ major releases
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty
You are making the assumption that the $50- $99 M titles there have the same impact on home video and Blu-ray sell through sales as the more powerful $100 M + box office titles. That may not be valid, and

I assert the more than $100 M + titles are the more important variable here as they explain the observed results better. Besides the fact that a commonly held belief in the industry especially retailers.
So when you are going to update your $100 million list that you claim is the best variable? Better than my $25+ million AND the TBO. Are you going to make an exception for John Carter?

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Old 06-14-2012, 06:02 PM   #3285  
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Its still 22 weeks with relatively few major titles in them in this slower seasonal time of the year. Its too soon for things to cancel out. For example we have seen few major Blu-ray friendly genre tentpoles so far this year.


This week and next week will start canceling that out and the YoY metrics for Blu-ray will likely start to get better in the next few weeks as well. But you will not see that in the cumulative TBO numbers as those will not change much in the weeks coming up, even though Blu-ray's stats will probably continue to rise from the floor we have seen earlier in this quarter.
So when the box office YoY is not par anymore and instead it's up, then it's canceling out? Got it.
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