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Optical (Blu-ray/DVD) and Digital (EST/UV) Sales Thread

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Old 06-13-2012, 10:30 AM   #3256  
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So it looks like Kosty was wrong about why it was a bad quarter. Box office was only down 4.4% for that YOY comparison yet bd had it worst quarter of the year.

The reason I asked this question to begin with is this year the YOY is down and that is from an already weak comparable last year time frame. That is bad news for the format.
That was my thinking as well. Last year at this time it was about how skewed the results were due to the year before. It seems to be no different this year.
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Old 06-13-2012, 12:55 PM   #3257  
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So it looks like Kosty was wrong about why it was a bad quarter. Box office was only down 4.4% for that YOY comparison yet bd had it worst quarter of the year.

The reason I asked this question to begin with is this year the YOY is down and that is from an already weak comparable last year time frame. That is bad news for the format.
TBO is not the only factor. The comparison with major releases is also obviously a major factor as that chart clearly shows the impact of Avatar and Alice in Wonderland on the cumulative YoY metric for that period.
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Old 06-13-2012, 02:10 PM   #3258  
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Roku CEO: Blu-ray will be finished in 4 years

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The sale of Blu-ray players is going to peak this year or next, Roku CEO Anthony Wood predicted at the TV of Tomorrow show in San Francisco Wednesday.

“Will people use Blu-ray players in four years? I don’t think so,” he said, adding that the streaming performance on Blu-ray players doesn’t compare to the experience on a dedicated set-top-box like the ones his company sells. (Wood, however, didn’t rule out that there will be a Blu-ray player built into Roku’s platform at some point.)
Roku CEO does not yet realize (but soon will) that there are some very sensitive, high volume, blu-ray message board posters that will take umbrage with those remarks.
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Old 06-13-2012, 02:38 PM   #3259  
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Roku CEO: Blu-ray will be finished in 4 years

Roku CEO does not yet realize (but soon will) that there are some very sensitive, high volume, blu-ray message board posters that will take umbrage with those remarks.
That statement is almost as sig worthy as this one...

"The entertainment of the future will definitely not be on a DVD player, that technology will be completely gone within 10 years at the most." - Bill Gates (July 2004)
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Old 06-13-2012, 02:49 PM   #3260  
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Originally Posted by mikemorel View Post
Roku CEO: Blu-ray will be finished in 4 years

Roku CEO does not yet realize (but soon will) that there are some very sensitive, high volume, blu-ray message board posters that will take umbrage with those remarks.
Take umbrage, unlikely. Laugh at his stupidity, most definately
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Old 06-13-2012, 03:54 PM   #3261  
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I think the remarks by both of those guys were a combination of wishful thinking and exaggeration (for the purpose of PR). I can't believe the Roku CEO truly believes that BLu-ray will disappear in 4 years, but rather believes (or better, hopes) that Blu-ray/OD will no longer be the dominant form of HE medium in 4 years, and that digital will overtake it. That could happen, but it's unlikely.

Bill Gates could have been stoned or was joking when he said DVD would be gone in 10 years max. Or it more likely wishful thinking like the above, and exaggerated for PR effect. After all, DVD was huge in 2004.

Last edited by bruceames; 06-13-2012 at 03:58 PM..
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Old 06-13-2012, 04:20 PM   #3262  
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TBO is not the only factor. The comparison with major releases is also obviously a major factor as that chart clearly shows the impact of Avatar and Alice in Wonderland on the cumulative YoY metric for that period.
Well the TBO metric obviously does include the BO of both Avatar and Alice, so those titles are accounted for in the comparison.

It is true though that 2012 Q2 was more top heavy than in 2011, but whether top heavy titles take in more than their share of revenue (compared to the box office), is up for debate. If you use The-Numbers as a comparative source of week one sales revenue, you'll find that Avatar actually had a lower ratio of video revenue / box office than did many other lesser titles.

So it would appear that the conversion ratio (how well it does on HV relative to its box office) was actually skewed by the 3D BO revenue. This 3D BO revenue was of course accounted for as well in the TBO figures, so it could be argued the other way that the BO comparison (down 4.4%) is skewed against 2011 because of the BO "fluff" by Avatar.
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Old 06-13-2012, 04:34 PM   #3263  
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All signs are pointing for blu-ray to hit a peak this fall. The charts show it and so does the catalog release slate.

Finding Nemo
Jaws
E.T.
Indiana Jones

There is really nothing left as far as big catalog selling titles go. Those 4 are the cream of the crop.
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Old 06-13-2012, 04:53 PM   #3264  
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Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
I think the remarks by both of those guys were a combination of wishful thinking and exaggeration (for the purpose of PR). I can't believe the Roku CEO truly believes that BLu-ray will disappear in 4 years, but rather believes (or better, hopes) that Blu-ray/OD will no longer be the dominant form of HE medium in 4 years, and that digital will overtake it. That could happen, but it's unlikely.
Agreed. Though it is highly likely he knows the sales of blu-ray players over the last 5 years. He must get the reports.

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Bill Gates could have been stoned or was joking when he said DVD would be gone in 10 years max. Or it more likely wishful thinking like the above, and exaggerated for PR effect. After all, DVD was huge in 2004.
It's hilarious. I Google search for that quote, and find dozens of message board threads ranting from 2004, all linking to a single article from Yahoo News that is no longer on Yahoo's web site. Sounds like another urban legend.
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Old 06-13-2012, 05:11 PM   #3265  
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...streaming performance on Blu-ray players doesn’t compare to the experience on a dedicated set-top-box like the ones his company sells.
Is this a true statement? And if so, why?
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Old 06-13-2012, 05:12 PM   #3266  
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One thing is for sure. Apple listened and decided to go with no optical drive at all. Look at them now!!! Most valuable company in the world!!!
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Old 06-13-2012, 05:19 PM   #3267  
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Agreed. Though it is highly likely he knows the sales of blu-ray players over the last 5 years. He must get the reports.
It's hard to argue with his claim of Blu-ray player sales peaking this year or next. Depending on how you interpret the DEG report, they could have already peaked last year.

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It's hilarious. I Google search for that quote, and find dozens of message board threads ranting from 2004, all linking to a single article from Yahoo News that is no longer on Yahoo's web site. Sounds like another urban legend.
Probably along the lines of Amirm saying that BD50s were "science fiction".
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Old 06-13-2012, 05:23 PM   #3268  
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One thing is for sure. Apple listened and decided to go with no optical drive at all. Look at them now!!! Most valuable company in the world!!!
Yeah, almost too valuable. They're becoming the next Microsoft. How many more people have to sign on before the cool factor goes away?

But apple obviously has more to gain by leaving out the optical drive. As a poster above said (or maybe it was in another thread), Apple doesn't want anything to get in the way of their store software sales.
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Old 06-13-2012, 06:26 PM   #3269  
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Agreed. Though it is highly likely he knows the sales of blu-ray players over the last 5 years. He must get the reports.

It's hilarious. I Google search for that quote, and find dozens of message board threads ranting from 2004, all linking to a single article from Yahoo News that is no longer on Yahoo's web site. Sounds like another urban legend.
Plenty of references to the original source interview which was taken from the German print publication 'Bild'.

http://german.about.com/library/blmagazin01.htm

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Bild
Largest circulation newspaper in Germany, with about 4.4 million copies sold daily. Probably Germany's best Boulevardzeitung (widely circulated tabloid, sold mostly on newsstands rather than by subscription). The BamS Sunday edition (2.4 million circulation) almost fits the magazine category.
http://www.jroller.com/sumith/entry/...ill_be_dead_in

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DVDs will be dead in a decade

19 Jul Mon 2004

Bill Gates, Microsoft czar and the world's richest man, says there's no future for the DVD (digital video disc), according to a report published in the German daily Bild. The world's leading technology guru foresees the DVD technology as becoming 'obsolete in 10 years at the most.' He said that movie-watchers of the future will find the idea of buying a shiny disc with a movie stored on it 'ridiculous.' He predicted that these movie fans will instead watch films on television sets that will be able to download films and programmes via the Internet. "The entertainment of the future will definitely not be on a DVD player, that technology will be completely gone within 10 years at the most. When you consider that today we carry music and films around on silver discs and then have to insert them in computers, that is actually pretty ridiculous. These discs could end up being damaged, or simply getting lost," the Bild quoted Gates as saying. "The TV of the future will show us exactly what we want and when we want," Gates said. "It will know what we don't want our children to see. It will be able to show us a display of family photos and on a command will remove the ones with the mother-in-law in them from the display, if we want it to." Gates said that the home computer will know who we are from our voice or our face. It will know what we want to watch, our favourite programmes, or what the kids should not be allowed to see, said the Bild report. However, The Inquirer, which also reported the Gates speech, stated that Gates' predictions could at times be 'inaccurate,' and referred to him having said that there's no future in the networking novelty called the 'Internet.'

Source: Bild
Here's a German article (one of many) referring to the same interview and even states the comments were published on Tuesday which would have been July 13th, 2004 which is the same date on this article. That is evidence of fresh reporting.

http://www.schwaebische.de/home_arti...d,1170488.html

The google translation below.

Quote:
Bill Gates does not believe in the future of the DVD player

Hamburg / dpa - Microsoft CEO Bill Gates does not believe in a long future for the DVD Player. "Is this technology have at least done in ten years," said the founder of the world's largest software company of the "Bild-Zeitung" on Tuesday. "When you consider that today music or movies carry on silver discs with us or in the Computers need to plug in, which is actually ridiculous. "When should you consider that we now carry music or films on silver discs with us, or plug into the computer, which is really ridiculous." The discs may eventually scratch or lost. Instead, Gates favored the powered by Microsoft using computers at the heart of digital entertainment systems. "The TV of tomorrow will show us all just what we want - and when we want it," he said. Gates also sees good prospects for mobile devices, "mobile phone and handheld computer, known as Pocket PCs, will be able to do incredible things in the future much more for us." With cell phones you'll recall, for example, using the bar code information on the goods may or translate with a camera phone, the menu holidays abroad.
In all fairness to Bill Gates, a lot of the other potentially crazy shit he pedicted actually came true but not all by his own hand - seems Steve Jobs beat him to the punch in a few areas.

Last edited by Dave J; 06-13-2012 at 06:29 PM..
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Old 06-13-2012, 09:00 PM   #3270  
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One thing is for sure. Apple listened and decided to go with no optical drive at all. Look at them now!!! Most valuable company in the world!!!
Let's not forget they announced a new SuperDrive a few days ago. Apple still sells and makes DVD players/recorders.
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