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Old 06-08-2012, 02:13 PM   #3226  
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They don't?
I meant no one cares what the cumulative or total revenue estimates for the formats are mid way through a quarter, instead of the complete quarter.

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Then why did Disney choose this time of the year to implement their 28 day embargo?
To make more money. To get in line with most other studios.

Not because of some mid quarter results from other studios.
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Old 06-08-2012, 02:16 PM   #3227  
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2011 YTD had 13 $100+ titles 2012 YTD had 7.

2011 YTD had 10 $100+ titles over 33% BD marketshare, 2012 YTD had 4.
2011 YTD - number of BD homes = 31.6M+

2012 YTD - number of BD homes = 44m+
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Old 06-08-2012, 02:28 PM   #3228  
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Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
I meant no one cares what the cumulative or total revenue estimates for the formats are mid way through a quarter, instead of the complete quarter.



To make more money. To get in line with most other studios.

Not because of some mid quarter results from other studios.
I blame John Carter. I imagine they're trying to recoup as much as they can from that film, and a redbox delay for that film will probably help.
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Old 06-08-2012, 02:46 PM   #3229  
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I blame John Carter. I imagine they're trying to recoup as much as they can from that film, and a redbox delay for that film will probably help.

The loss on that film probably had them reassess things as well.

But you are right, its probably no coincidence that its starting with this release.
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Old 06-08-2012, 02:49 PM   #3230  
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When all it takes is one movie to bomb and they have to make major changes like embargos, it just goes to show you how dire and fragile the home video market is. These are very tough times for the home video market. I see nothing but more layoffs down the road AGAIN in home video. They are following the music industries blunder to a T.

They refuse to give consumers what we want. Instead they are taking away. That is one way to alienate your entire userbase.

Its all playing out just like I predicted. Nothing will change consumer behavior with migrating onto digital forms of entertainment. They are giving up physical. They are on their smartphones and ipads. Neither take OD.

You can ignore this all you want while the entire industry moves on with the transition. OH well.
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Old 06-08-2012, 03:10 PM   #3231  
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You are reading too much into it. Disney is not doing any other the other studios besides Sony has done in the rental delay front. It must be seen as having some positive effect or else the other studios would not bother to do it as well.

Of course the studios will try to favor physical sell through and EST over rental or SVOD, its much higher margin and they make more money at it.
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Old 06-08-2012, 03:30 PM   #3232  
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Originally Posted by Ray Von Geezer View Post
Ah, no. Parts were certainly tongue-in-cheek (I agree, some here take it all far too seriously for my tastes) but it comprised of earnest responses to Mike's points which I'm happy to debate with anyone, particularly if they can park their old format war trammel at the door.

I'm not sure about relating long posts with rants though, is that a cultural thing? I admit that while I can see why some find value in brevity, it's not something I'm very good at. That's why I think the "like" button is such a great idea, and with the simple addition of "dislike" and "ambivalent" buttons we could avoid having to post at all and spend our time better in the pub.

On the plus side, I do feel I've gained a better grasp of forum convention:-

Long post directly addressing points raised and not using partisan language = ranty & divisive
Short post not germane to anything and including terms such as "people like you" and "you and any other Blu-Ray consumer" = not ranty or divisive.

There's another one about comparing posts based on emotional content or something, but I've not got that yet. Is my decoder ring in the post?

Have a great weekend mate

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It's all good Ray. I just found your post a little ironic, but now I realize it was the British humor that I find often escapes me. If I had recalled that you were from over the pond as I read it, I no doubt would have perceived it in a different light.

You have a great weekend too.
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Old 06-08-2012, 03:47 PM   #3233  
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Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
2011 YTD had 13 $100+ titles 2012 YTD had 7.
Actually 2011 had 11 $100+ titles YTD, while 2012 had 8. Gnomeo & Juliet and The Green Hornet were under $100 million, while The Vow is missing from your list.

But while the $100+ titles ledger favors 2012 by an 11 to 8 count, story is much different on the $50-$100 million titles, which favor this year by a 22 to 15 margin. Furthermore the genre mix is more favorable in this category for 2012.
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Old 06-08-2012, 03:57 PM   #3234  
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Corrected


Through week ending 05/27/12.

Drama Horror and Crime now in purple. Sorted by BD share.

(Sorted by first week NV Blu-ray unit marketshare, grouped by 10% BD marketshare increments.)


2011 YTD $100 M+ releases
Code:
68.21% 172.1  Sci-Fi		Tron: Legacy


49.50%  98.8  Comedy		Green Hornet, The
45.75% 294.1  Adventure	        Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1
44.17% 104.3  Fantasy		Chronicles of Narnia, The: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader
43.23% 107.0  Drama		Black Swan
40.78% 200.8  Animation	        Tangled

39.91% 117.2  Comedy		Jackass 3
35.78% 147.9  Animation	        Megamind
36.18% 100.0  Animation         Gnomeo & Juliet
33.25% 100.5  Comedy		Due Date

27.93% 100.2  Family		Yogi Bear
26.31% 138.0  Drama		King's Speech, The
23.73% 148.4  Comedy		Little Fockers




.
vs

2012 YTD $100 M+ releases
Code:
100.00% 104.0  Horror	        Paranormal Activity 3 

 67.14% 209.4  Action		Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol

 54.57% 102.5  Crime	        Girl With the Dragon Tatoo, The

 40.28% 149.1  Animation	Puss in Boots


 29.60% 108.1  Animation	Hop
 23.92% 276.7  Adventure	Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - Part 1, The
 23.57% 125.01 Romance          The Vow 
 23.32% 130.9  Animation	Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked



.

Last edited by Kosty; 06-09-2012 at 12:51 AM..
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Old 06-08-2012, 04:03 PM   #3235  
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The Sunday offset is more of a factor when discussing a specific release week of a high volume title as HMM is reporting one day less in its revenue estimate than T-N or the NV first alert report data and Sunday is an above average sales day especially for a major title heavily advertised in the Sunday Best Buy Target and Walmart weekly circulars.

Five days vs six reporting days by itself would always be a 15% to 20% less revenues being reported even if Sunday was just the same as the other days of the week.

I'm not using that observation to 'sweep things under the rug" but you cannot deny its a factor and just ignore it either. Its nonsense to expect that different sources have the exact same magnitudes in their estimates either as it never happens that way in reality. The more important comparison is the trending over time and internal apples to apples comparisons using the same source.
The Sunday offset becomes largely irrelevant here because both the week of MI4 and the week after, were referred to. The week after MI4 was a $25 million near-floor week which saw MI4 being trounced by a $67 million BO action movie.

The week of MI4 was a $28 million week, only $6 million above the (thus far established) floor, and you're buying that 1.34 million units reported by The-Numbers. If you take 20% off of that for the Sunday offset, that you still have 1.07 units. Which at a $22 average selling prices, is $23.58 million all by itself. And for a $28 million dollar week (which starts on the Sunday prior so that Sunday IS included), that's a little too big to fit under my rug.
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Old 06-08-2012, 04:21 PM   #3236  
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I agree that many of the new DVD releases are expected to and have very small sales volumes.




I think that its a usual measure to look at but its not as predictive of the results we have seen so far as the mix of $100 M+ major releases

A Twilight Saga release was a major event this year in its statistical impact. Just like not having one last year in 1Q 2011 being compared to 1Q 2010 that had a Twilight Saga movie was also an important factor in the YoY statistics. It would be negligent not to mention it.

I never said it was not good or not great for Blu-ray.

What I did say is that it was also good for DVD in improving its YoY gains and partially explains why the delta between DVD and Blu-ray YoY is closer YTD this year.

A
You are using Twilight as the reason why the Blu-ray - DVD YoY delta is so small, or why BD is not performing as well as it should compared to DVD.

But as I have alluded to earlier with that example, That delta would be even smaller if Twilight didn't exist.


YTD: percentages are YoY gain/loss:
BD - DVD delta with Twilight: 9.1% - (-10.6%) = 19.7%

BD - DVD delta without Twilight: 2.9% - (-14.1%) = 17.0%
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Old 06-08-2012, 06:22 PM   #3237  
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Here are the list for the $50-$100 million BO titles:

2011: TBO $100+ million titles: 11 total--> $1630.5
2011: TBO $50-$100 million titles: 15 total-->$1146.9 (list shown below)
Total-->$2777.4 -->76.6% of TBO of all titles

2012 $50-$100 million BO titles YTD
Code:
share	Box office	Genre	Title
50	97.1	Comedy	Green Hornet, The
46	89.5	Comedy	Red
45	93.2	Biography	Social Network, The
43	55.0	Romance	I Am Number Four
40	92.9	Drama	Fighter, The
36	81.2	Thriller	Unstoppable
36	99.4	Animation	Gnomeo & Juliet
34	67.6	Romance	Tourist, The
32	57.7	Crime	Takers
30	58.8	Family	Secretariat
27	84.5	Horror	Paranormal Activity 2
27	70.6	Comedy	No Strings Attached
25	73.0	Comedy	Dinner For Schmucks
19	73.0	Documentary	Justin Bieber: Never Say Never
15	53.4	Romance	Life as We Know It



2011: TBO $100+ million titles: 8 total--> $1205.6
2011: TBO $50-$100 million titles:22 total-->$1507.8 (list shown below)
Total-->$2713.4 -->76.1% of TBO of all titles

2012 $50-$100 million BO titles YTD
Code:
share	Box office	Genre	Title
59	83.5	Action	Immortals
58	64.5	Drama	Chronicle
56	62.3	Action	Underworld: Awakening
54	85.1	Action	Real Steel
52	88.6	Family	Muppets, The
52	66.5	Action	Contraband
51	58.7	Adventure	Hugo
51	51.8	Action	Grey, The
50	77.2	Animation	Adventures of Tintin, The
44	75.3	Drama	Moneyball
44	54.6	Action	This Means War
40	75.7	Thriller	Contagion
40	78.0	Action	Tower Heist
37	54.3	Horror	Woman in Black, The
36	79.8	Drama	War Horse
32	80.7	Drama	Descendants, The
29	51.8	Drama	Footloose
28	74.2	Comedy	Jack and Jill
27	73.4	Family	We Bought a Zoo
23	64.0	Animation	Happy Feet Two
22	53.3	Horror	Devil Inside, The
19	54.5	Comedy	New Year's Eve
A few observations:

1) The $50-$100 million titles constitute roughly the same amount in box office power as the $100+ titles ($2837 million vs. $2654 respectively)

2) 2012 has more titles and more TBO in this group than 2011

3) 2012 has more action and other Blu-ray favorable titles, both in quantity, and by proportion.


Conclusion: If you take these titles in consideration together with the $100+ million already listed, you get a more balanced picture of the genre distribution and the relative power they had. As a whole, there appears to be no real bias in favorable genres between the two periods being compared. Therefore, the net TBO and the TBO difference between 2012 and 2011 is a very accurate indicator, and now that the YoY TBO is a wash, we can directly compare the YoY revenue performance using this simple metric without worrying about undue bias from other factors.
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Old 06-08-2012, 07:18 PM   #3238  
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Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
The loss on that film probably had them reassess things as well.

But you are right, its probably no coincidence that its starting with this release.
No they didn't:

Quote:
Walt Disney Studios Home Entertainment has begun delaying select new disc releases 28-days to kiosks, video stores and Netflix — a policy the studio started with the May 22 release of The Secret World of Arrietty, a studio representative confirmed.
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Old 06-08-2012, 07:19 PM   #3239  
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You are reading too much into it. Disney is not doing any other the other studios besides Sony has done in the rental delay front. It must be seen as having some positive effect or else the other studios would not bother to do it as well.

Of course the studios will try to favor physical sell through and EST over rental or SVOD, its much higher margin and they make more money at it.
Does Paramount have a 28 day embargo on it's new releases?

How about Summit?
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Old 06-09-2012, 12:26 AM   #3240  
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The Sunday offset becomes largely irrelevant here because both the week of MI4 and the week after, were referred to. The week after MI4 was a $25 million near-floor week which saw MI4 being trounced by a $67 million BO action movie.

The week of MI4 was a $28 million week, only $6 million above the (thus far established) floor, and you're buying that 1.34 million units reported by The-Numbers. If you take 20% off of that for the Sunday offset, that you still have 1.07 units. Which at a $22 average selling prices, is $23.58 million all by itself. And for a $28 million dollar week (which starts on the Sunday prior so that Sunday IS included), that's a little too big to fit under my rug.
Look at the other releases for those weeks. There was nothing there to contribute to the revenues for MI4 release week and the week after.

That's a relatively unusual circumstance. Previously for the year that floor or base level of sales was the normal catalog sales and older releases at something like $10 M in sales plus something like $10 M in additional sales from the subsequent weeks of previous releases.

In the MI4 release week and week after the cascading sales from preceding weeks were almost nonexistent as MI4 was the first good release in a sequence of one. The following week had nothing much either so a good portion of the reported revenues for those weeks were MI4 sales.
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