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Old 06-08-2012, 09:57 AM   #3211  
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Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
Blu-ray's YoY growth trends are more sensitive to the strength of new release variation than DVD now because DVD is more and more riding on catalog sales as a base while Blu-ray's success in gaining high marketshare of new releases means it is more sensitive when those releases are stronger.
DVD's base consists of much more than just catalog. But frankly its catalog sales have dried up compared to 8-10 years ago. DVD still releases far more new-to-format catalog than does Blu-ray (close to 3x more) but much of it is on-demand titles that are burned to disc, so sales of those titles are going to be modest.


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The gross TBO metric is not the major variable here, but you seem fixated on it.
I'm using both the performance of the $25 million plus list of titles to verify that the genre mix and BO distribution is not more favorable to one year over the other, and then using TBO as the measuring stick once I've established that the mixes of both years are comparably strong. What are you using?
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Blu-ray has been as high as +33% in that cumulative metric after Twilight Saga and has increased after major releases as well. The last time the TBO went to even Blu-ray was much higher in the YoY cumulative gain so there is not of correlation between the total TBO number and the total revenue numbers at this time of the year.
Oh I see. You're still fixated on Twilight. That title was great for Blu-ray I agree.

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Old 06-08-2012, 10:00 AM   #3212  
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Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
Lee didn't ask for The-Numbers BS data. Did you notice they reported MORE revenue by MI4 than HMM did for the entire week?

He is right though. It looks like the title sold poorly relative to its box office. HMM reported only $28 million the week of its release and $25 million the week after. Those are really piss poor totals for a release of that magnitude. So much so, they are even below average for the quarter which has seen BO down 20%, and well below the average for the year.

As for the T20 charts, in week 1, MI4 had no competition so of course it's going to get a strong result. The #2 title wasn't even a new release! In week two another of those sub-$100 million titles you don't feel is worth mentioning, buried it in the #2 position, getting only 58% of the units as the #1 title (Contraband).

Besides, if MI4 did so well and is so BLu-ray favorable to boot (a week 1 67% share) then why is the delta between Blu-ray and DVD YoY so small this quarter? A lingering "Twilight" effect?
That was indeed the reported numbers but you fail to note that it was a lot less the week before ($52 M TBO) as well so nothing from the previous weeks much helped the MI4 release numbers. MI4 was pretty much by its lonesome each week.

Its only a poor assumption that assumes all of the MI4 revenues should be in the HMM Sun-Sat week and that it should be larger building off some unknown base of sales.

Some of MI4 release week Nielsen Videoscan units fall into the second week of its sales and those numbers were't that large either because nothing big was released in that week either and it had only a modest $67 M TBO as well.

MI4 was the only significant release in a span of 3 or 4 weeks so its specific impact got hidden somewhat in the reported weekly revenue numbers.
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Old 06-08-2012, 10:09 AM   #3213  
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You mean you were holding back? I guess it's true that the old format war feelings run deep. Over at the HTF "reunion", they had to reenact the ban on format war talk because people were arguing like it happened just yesterday.
No, the inner angst thing was a joke (I gotta use smileys more)

"I didn't fight that war, I wasn't even there man!"

A bit of background - HD DVD barely launched over here in backwards Blighty (though LoveFilm still have a few for rent). I have an interest in the subject, mainly because it's my hobby, plus you need to have to participate in places like this, and I've seen enough of the ugliness some of you guys regularly display to know feelings still run deep. As far as having a horse in the race though, nah, and I don't have any baggage with any of you guys who did.

I don't think there was anything in my posts that would be particularly unreasonable to anyone who didn't automatically assume that I have to be batting for a "side". It was the same at HDF, though it did seem a little less confrontational here for a while, and maybe that's always going to be the problem with the sites where you vets hang out, you're always looking for reds/blus under the bed?

As far as who I "gang" for, at the risk of sounding like a ponce I've transcended your puny Earthling distribution methods My media server and elegant sufficiency of (fully legal) movies etc means that DVDs, Blu-Rays, digital copies and streaming are all just different buttons on my remotes. I guess that should actually make me "pro digital", except I'm also "pro quality"

I'm still confused about your comparison of emotional content between Mike and mine's posts though? Do we have an emo meter I don't know about? Are Clerics coming to get me, do I need to brush up on my gun-kata?

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Old 06-08-2012, 10:13 AM   #3214  
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That was indeed the reported numbers but you fail to note that it was a lot less the week before ($52 M TBO) as well so nothing from the previous weeks much helped the MI4 release numbers. MI4 was pretty much by its lonesome each week.

Its only a poor assumption that assumes all of the MI4 revenues should be in the HMM Sun-Sat week and that it should be larger building off some unknown base of sales.

Some of MI4 release week Nielsen Videoscan units fall into the second week of its sales and those numbers were't that large either because nothing big was released in that week either and it had only a modest $67 M TBO as well.

MI4 was the only significant release in a span of 3 or 4 weeks so its specific impact got hidden somewhat in the reported weekly revenue numbers.
It was a poor assumption by you that by posting The-Numbers data for MI4, it would add more credibility to your argument.

And again, you're leaning on that Sunday offset much too hard. You're only hurting yourself when you get into the habit of sweeping any discrepancies or unexplainable events under that rug, no matter how implausible they may be.
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Old 06-08-2012, 10:17 AM   #3215  
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Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
Lee didn't ask for The-Numbers BS data. Did you notice they reported MORE revenue by MI4 than HMM did for the entire week?

He is right though. It looks like the title sold poorly relative to its box office. HMM reported only $28 million the week of its release and $25 million the week after. Those are really piss poor totals for a release of that magnitude. So much so, they are even below average for the quarter which has seen BO down 20%, and well below the average for the year.

As for the T20 charts, in week 1, MI4 had no competition so of course it's going to get a strong result. The #2 title wasn't even a new release! In week two another of those sub-$100 million titles you don't feel is worth mentioning, buried it in the #2 position, getting only 58% of the units as the #1 title (Contraband).

Besides, if MI4 did so well and is so BLu-ray favorable to boot (a week 1 67% share) then why is the delta between Blu-ray and DVD YoY so small this quarter? A lingering "Twilight" effect?
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Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
There was not a lot released the weeks before MI4 nor the weeks after so much of the reported Blu-ray revenues for those weeks we solely the result of that title's revenues as there was no significant revenues coming in from previous recent releases.
If the HMM weekly Sun-Sat first five days of MI4 weekly sales estimate the sole reason that you feel Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol underperformed then that's a flawed argument that again does not consider the other variables that affect the weekly statistical estimates.
So did Best Buy Walmart and Amazon quit selling all their blu-rays they have in stock?

Man the excuses from you are so weak. Talking to you is like talking to a box of rocks.
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Old 06-08-2012, 10:20 AM   #3216  
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No, the inner angst thing was a joke (I gotta use smileys more)

"I didn't fight that war, I wasn't even there man!"

A bit of background - HD DVD barely launched over here in backwards Blighty (though LoveFilm still have a few for rent). I have an interest in the subject, mainly because it's my hobby, plus you need to have to participate in places like this, and I've seen enough of the ugliness some of you guys regularly display to know feelings still run deep. As far as having a horse in the race though, nah, and I don't have any baggage with any of you guys who did.

I don't think there was anything in my posts that would be particularly unreasonable to anyone who didn't automatically assume that I have to be batting for a "side". It was the same at HDF, though it did seem a little less confrontational here for a while, and maybe that's always going to be the problem with the sites where you vets hang out, you're always looking for reds/blus under the bed?

As far as who I "gang" for, at the risk of sounding like a ponce I've transcended your puny Earthling distribution methods My media server and elegant sufficiency of (fully legal) movies etc means that DVDs, Blu-Rays, digital copies and streaming are all just different buttons on my remotes. I guess that should actually make me "pro digital", except I'm also "pro quality"

I'm still confused about your comparison of emotional content between Mike and mine's posts though? Do we have an emo meter I don't know about? Are Clerics coming to get me, do I need to brush up on my gun-kata?

Ray Von
So that long rant was just an act? OK man, it's cool, whatever. We can always use some comic relief over here.
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Old 06-08-2012, 12:44 PM   #3217  
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So that long rant was just an act? OK man, it's cool, whatever. We can always use some comic relief over here.
Ah, no. Parts were certainly tongue-in-cheek (I agree, some here take it all far too seriously for my tastes) but it comprised of earnest responses to Mike's points which I'm happy to debate with anyone, particularly if they can park their old format war trammel at the door.

I'm not sure about relating long posts with rants though, is that a cultural thing? I admit that while I can see why some find value in brevity, it's not something I'm very good at. That's why I think the "like" button is such a great idea, and with the simple addition of "dislike" and "ambivalent" buttons we could avoid having to post at all and spend our time better in the pub.

On the plus side, I do feel I've gained a better grasp of forum convention:-

Long post directly addressing points raised and not using partisan language = ranty & divisive
Short post not germane to anything and including terms such as "people like you" and "you and any other Blu-Ray consumer" = not ranty or divisive.

There's another one about comparing posts based on emotional content or something, but I've not got that yet. Is my decoder ring in the post?

Have a great weekend mate

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Old 06-08-2012, 01:11 PM   #3218  
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It was a poor assumption by you that by posting The-Numbers data for MI4, it would add more credibility to your argument.
I posted it because I was responding to Lee Stewart's specific request.

Lee was complaining that I did not post any unit sales or revenue data for the title when I posted the Nielsen Video charts.

T-N data is the only public by title estimates we have. by that measure its first week's performance was in line with their magnitudes for other major releases.


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UNITS SOLD! BD S-T DOLLARS GENERATED!

Not some % on a chart
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And again, you're leaning on that Sunday offset much too hard. You're only hurting yourself when you get into the habit of sweeping any discrepancies or unexplainable events under that rug, no matter how implausible they may be.
The Sunday offset is more of a factor when discussing a specific release week of a high volume title as HMM is reporting one day less in its revenue estimate than T-N or the NV first alert report data and Sunday is an above average sales day especially for a major title heavily advertised in the Sunday Best Buy Target and Walmart weekly circulars.

Five days vs six reporting days by itself would always be a 15% to 20% less revenues being reported even if Sunday was just the same as the other days of the week.

I'm not using that observation to 'sweep things under the rug" but you cannot deny its a factor and just ignore it either. Its nonsense to expect that different sources have the exact same magnitudes in their estimates either as it never happens that way in reality. The more important comparison is the trending over time and internal apples to apples comparisons using the same source.

Last edited by Kosty; 06-08-2012 at 01:40 PM..
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Old 06-08-2012, 01:24 PM   #3219  
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duplicate post

Last edited by Kosty; 06-08-2012 at 01:40 PM..
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Old 06-08-2012, 01:25 PM   #3220  
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So did Best Buy Walmart and Amazon quit selling all their blu-rays they have in stock?

Man the excuses from you are so weak. Talking to you is like talking to a box of rocks.
That's OK. Sometimes I feel I'm talking to a wall here myself.

Except I don't get quite as emotionally involved as this poor guy.

Spoiler:


Why you continue to categorize any discussion of the variables that affect the observed results as "excuses" is beyond this poor mortal's perception. No one in the industry cares about mid quarter results anyway.

Last edited by Kosty; 06-08-2012 at 01:29 PM..
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Old 06-08-2012, 01:57 PM   #3221  
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DVD's base consists of much more than just catalog. But frankly its catalog sales have dried up compared to 8-10 years ago. DVD still releases far more new-to-format catalog than does Blu-ray (close to 3x more) but much of it is on-demand titles that are burned to disc, so sales of those titles are going to be modest.
I agree that many of the new DVD releases are expected to and have very small sales volumes.




Quote:
I'm using both the performance of the $25 million plus list of titles to verify that the genre mix and BO distribution is not more favorable to one year over the other, and then using TBO as the measuring stick once I've established that the mixes of both years are comparably strong. What are you using?
I think that its a usual measure to look at but its not as predictive of the results we have seen so far as the mix of $100 M+ major releases

Quote:
Oh I see. You're still fixated on Twilight.
A Twilight Saga release was a major event this year in its statistical impact. Just like not having one last year in 1Q 2011 being compared to 1Q 2010 that had a Twilight Saga movie was also an important factor in the YoY statistics. It would be negligent not to mention it.

Quote:
That title was great for Blu-ray I agree.
I never said it was not good or not great for Blu-ray.

What I did say is that it was also good for DVD in improving its YoY gains and partially explains why the delta between DVD and Blu-ray YoY is closer YTD this year.

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Old 06-08-2012, 02:02 PM   #3222  
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Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
There was not a lot released the weeks before MI4 nor the weeks after so much of the reported Blu-ray revenues for those weeks we solely the result of that title's revenues as there was no significant revenues coming in from previous recent releases.

If the HMM weekly Sun-Sat first five days of MI4 weekly sales estimate the sole reason that you feel Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol underperformed then that's a flawed argument that again does not consider the other variables that affect the weekly statistical estimates.
Bah . . . . more BS and excuses. MI4 was the only major release that week. It had the market all it itself.

And it under performed. It didn't do what other movies in that genre and BO take range have done. And you know it. You just refuse to admit it, that's all.

Must be tough sitting through these past few weeks, looking at the data and seeing your "precious" isn't making much headway in either growth or marketshare.

Well, we all know how you deal with that . . . "Up is up!" and "just wait till Q4!"
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Old 06-08-2012, 02:05 PM   #3223  
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Updated table with 2012 and 2012 first week Blu-ray marketshare added as suggested by bruceames.

Through week ending 05/27/12.

Drama Horror and Crime now in purple. Sorted by BD share.

(Sorted by first week NV Blu-ray unit marketshare, grouped by 10% BD marketshare increments.)


2011 YTD $100 M+ releases
Code:
68.21% 172.1  Sci-Fi		Tron: Legacy


49.50%  97.1  Comedy		Green Hornet, The
45.75% 294.1  Adventure	        Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1
44.17% 104.3  Fantasy		Chronicles of Narnia, The: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader
43.23% 107.0  Drama		Black Swan
40.78% 200.8  Animation	        Tangled

39.91% 117.2  Comedy		Jackass 3
35.78% 147.9  Animation	        Megamind
36.18% 100.0  Animation         Gnomeo & Juliet
33.25% 100.5  Comedy		Due Date

27.93% 100.2  Family		Yogi Bear
26.31% 138.0  Drama		King's Speech, The
23.73% 148.4  Comedy		Little Fockers




.
vs

2012 YTD $100 M+ releases
Code:
100.00% 104.0  Horror	        Paranormal Activity 3 

 67.14% 209.4  Action		Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol

 54.57% 102.5  Crime	        Girl With the Dragon Tatoo, The

 40.28% 149.1  Animation	Puss in Boots


 29.60% 108.1  Animation	Hop
 23.92% 276.7  Adventure	Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - Part 1, The
 23.57% 125.01 Romance          The Vow 
 23.32% 130.9  Animation	Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked



.
hat tip to bruceames for thinking of adding the first week BD marketshare instead of just general genre sort

Last edited by Kosty; 06-08-2012 at 03:57 PM..
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Old 06-08-2012, 02:08 PM   #3224  
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Why you continue to categorize any discussion of the variables that affect the observed results as "excuses" is beyond this poor mortal's perception. No one in the industry cares about mid quarter results anyway.
They don't? Then why did Disney choose this time of the year to implement their 28 day embargo?
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Old 06-08-2012, 02:09 PM   #3225  
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2011 YTD had 13 $100+ titles 2012 YTD had 7.

2011 YTD had 10 $100+ titles over 33% BD marketshare, 2012 YTD had 4.
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