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Old 06-07-2012, 04:57 PM   #3181  
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Originally Posted by bruceames View Post

Box office is flat. End of story. Last year you used TBO repeatedly as excuse and now you want to ignore and focus on the "intangibles" like Twilight (which I've already proved has helped Blu-ray more than DVD), unfavorable genres, a silly one day offset over a 147 measuring period, future effect of already released titles, and other excuses.
Its biased on your part to lump all those other real effects and factual variables that tend to explain more the results we see as "excuses" instead of the real world affects that have an impact on the numbers.

When you ask why you do not understand why the observed results do not track with your chosen metrics its obvious that other factors are having an impact on the results.

Its like all you want to justify in your own mind that Blu-ray is failing in some manner to meet your expectations based on the simple metrics you are choosing.

Its also not you that's making the predictions that Blu-ray will be at 10% by the end of the year, that's more so the other guys. I'm directing my comments that its way too soon to show the current results as any sort of a trend because of the other factors involved.

Again we shall see. But what I and many others see is Blu-ray looking good with new release marketshare and volumes and maintaining stable price points, with catalog titles increasing as well.

The YoY comparison mid quarter don't matter much to anyone in the industry and Blu-ray has a chance to catch up a bit and improve its pace with the new releases coming up shortly in the statistics before the 2Q data period ends.
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Old 06-07-2012, 05:00 PM   #3182  
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Originally Posted by Kosty
It seems you want to ignore those things and only look at the gross measures such as weekly or cumulative revenues that are highly release comparison dependent and want to jump to conclusions.
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It's true I am ignoring on what hasn't come out yet. I really don't have a clue right now. But I tend to focus on what has already transpired so I'm not worried about it.
I did not mean for future releases.

I meant that you are ignoring many of those factors now in the weeks we already have booked for 2012. Only looking at the YoY TBO and YoY revenues is not the full story and you are ignoring other factors.
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Old 06-07-2012, 05:04 PM   #3183  
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Blu-ray's numbers are going to be more heavily influenced by major titles and increase in total TBO numbers over time than DVD will be because of Blu-ray consistent and increasing success in new release unit and even more so new release revenue marketshare.

So the better releases coming up in the next seven months will have a larger positive impact on Blu-ray than DVD and we have seen few releases to date in the year that have had that potential to positively affect the Blu-ray numbers (Twilight and MI4).
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Old 06-07-2012, 05:09 PM   #3184  
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Its biased on your part to lump all those other real effects and factual variables that tend to explain more the results we see as "excuses" instead of the real world affects that have an impact on the numbers.

When you ask why you do not understand why the observed results do not track with your chosen metrics its obvious that other factors are having an impact on the results.

Its like all you want to justify in your own mind that Blu-ray is failing in some manner to meet your expectations based on the simple metrics you are choosing.

Its also not you that's making the predictions that Blu-ray will be at 10% by the end of the year, that's more so the other guys. I'm directing my comments that its way too soon to show the current results as any sort of a trend because of the other factors involved.

Again we shall see. But what I and many others see is Blu-ray looking good with new release marketshare and volumes and maintaining stable price points, with catalog titles increasing as well.

The YoY comparison mid quarter don't matter much to anyone in the industry and Blu-ray has a chance to catch up a bit and improve its pace with the new releases coming up shortly in the statistics before the 2Q data period ends.
Well at least I am using "metrics". I'm waiting for yours. Show me your metrics Kosty.
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Old 06-07-2012, 05:11 PM   #3185  
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Its pretty simple really.

If you are right and the slowdown in Blu-ray YoY is because of the format peaking or consumer apathy toward Blu-ray then things will not increase to the better for Blu-ray as the year goes along with or without better releases. Even a growing TBO gain won't help much.

If I am right and the slower Blu-ray performance is mostly release related in things like number of $100 M+ releases, major Blu-ray titles genre, etc....then we should see a slow but steady advance in Blu-ray between now and September and then better Blu-ray results when the action related summer releases hit the streets. Along with major new to Blu-ray studio library titles doing well.

We shall see as the weeks unfold, that's what makes following this stuff kind fun.
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Old 06-07-2012, 06:06 PM   #3186  
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Its pretty simple really.

If you are right and the slowdown in Blu-ray YoY is because of the format peaking or consumer apathy toward Blu-ray then things will not increase to the better for Blu-ray as the year goes along with or without better releases. Even a growing TBO gain won't help much.

If I am right and the slower Blu-ray performance is mostly release related in things like number of $100 M+ releases, major Blu-ray titles genre, etc....then we should see a slow but steady advance in Blu-ray between now and September and then better Blu-ray results when the action related summer releases hit the streets. Along with major new to Blu-ray studio library titles doing well.

We shall see as the weeks unfold, that's what makes following this stuff kind fun.
I don't know why Blu-ray is slowing down so fast. I just know that it is. 10 percent growth under flat BO conditions is a far cry from even last year's nosedive from 68% to 20%. At least last year you could use the excuse that BO was down 8% for the year.
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Old 06-07-2012, 06:23 PM   #3187  
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Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
I don't know why Blu-ray is slowing down so fast. I just know that it is. 10 percent growth under flat BO conditions is a far cry from even last year's nosedive from 68% to 20%. At least last year you could use the excuse that BO was down 8% for the year.
I think it's because Blurays base for new sales is drying up. Players have been cheap enough that if anyone wanted a Bluray player they would have bought one by now. The majority of the sales from here on out are going to come from people replacing a broken DVD player. And those consumers are not going to buy a lot of Bluray movies. Plus those numbers are going to be small enough to go unnoticed. Thus disc sales flatten prematurely and Bluray peaks very early with very small numbers for sales compared to a successful format like VHS or DVD. Bluray ends up being a niche product.
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Old 06-07-2012, 06:24 PM   #3188  
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I have to admire the guy for his obvious passion, and feel some sympathy for him too - somehow the bit about the studio execs calling him up reminded me of Sara in Requiem for a Dream.
Sympathy???

Toshiba has been collecting royalties on billions of DVD players, drives, and discs since 1997 (DVD6C) and now collects royalties on every blu-ray player and disc by every company and studio that sells them (through BD4C, now Premier-BD), AND collects royalties from the DVDs that are bundled in the package in order to sell the blu-rays. They are also collecting royalties as a member of AACS, and are members in the MPEG2, VC-1 and AVC/H.264 codec licensing pools.

It is comical that you feel sympathy for them, as they have profited, and will continue to profit from ALL video disc and player sales, without having to actually sell a player or disc.

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A slight case of the loser trying to re-write history? I think maybe so.
C E D is an industry newsletter. Written for industry insiders, many of whom already know, precisely and first hand, the issues Fujii is talking about. I'm pretty sure he does not feel the need to convince you, or any other blu-ray consumer, of anything.

Besides, he said that could not convince movie studios about blu-ray's problems back in the day, when billions of dollars were at stake. It stands to reason that he knows that people like you wouldn't believe him now either.

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Old 06-07-2012, 06:26 PM   #3189  
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Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
Its pretty simple really.

If you are right and the slowdown in Blu-ray YoY is because of the format peaking or consumer apathy toward Blu-ray then things will not increase to the better for Blu-ray as the year goes along with or without better releases. Even a growing TBO gain won't help much.

If I am right and the slower Blu-ray performance is mostly release related in things like number of $100 M+ releases, major Blu-ray titles genre, etc....then we should see a slow but steady advance in Blu-ray between now and September and then better Blu-ray results when the action related summer releases hit the streets. Along with major new to Blu-ray studio library titles doing well.

We shall see as the weeks unfold, that's what makes following this stuff kind fun.
The part that's complicated is getting you to recognize and admit you were wrong. Also to admit that Bluray is not the success you try so hard paint it to be.
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Old 06-07-2012, 07:03 PM   #3190  
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Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
Its biased on your part to lump all those other real effects and factual variables that tend to explain more the results we see as "excuses" instead of the real world affects that have an impact on the numbers.

When you ask why you do not understand why the observed results do not track with your chosen metrics its obvious that other factors are having an impact on the results.

Its like all you want to justify in your own mind that Blu-ray is failing in some manner to meet your expectations based on the simple metrics you are choosing.
Why in the world would you consider using all movies that have a TBO of $25 million or more . . . 90 % of all movies . . . a "simple metric?"

Oh - I know why . . . it levels the playing field, balances the scales, something that you don't want.

The last thing you want is a black and white analysis. You LIVE for shades of gray analysis. It allows you to make all kinds of excuses as to why BD is not performing at levels that your peers feel it should be and isn't.
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Old 06-07-2012, 07:26 PM   #3191  
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Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
Its pretty simple really.

If you are right and the slowdown in Blu-ray YoY is because of the format peaking or consumer apathy toward Blu-ray then things will not increase to the better for Blu-ray as the year goes along with or without better releases. Even a growing TBO gain won't help much.

If I am right and the slower Blu-ray performance is mostly release related in things like number of $100 M+ releases, major Blu-ray titles genre, etc....then we should see a slow but steady advance in Blu-ray between now and September and then better Blu-ray results when the action related summer releases hit the streets. Along with major new to Blu-ray studio library titles doing well.

We shall see as the weeks unfold, that's what makes following this stuff kind fun.
Simple huh? So explain the failure of MISSION IMPOSSIBLE: GHOST PROTOCOL on BD.

$209,397,903 BO
Tom Cruise
Action Genre
Successful series

The problem with your "you need X to sell BDs" is that it isn't a cast in concrete formula. Yet you continually bring it up like it's a blueprint for success.

Just like your statements on how much new BD player sales are going to influence BD sell-through.
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Old 06-08-2012, 04:54 AM   #3192  
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Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
I don't know why Blu-ray is slowing down so fast. I just know that it is. 10 percent growth under flat BO conditions is a far cry from even last year's nosedive from 68% to 20%. At least last year you could use the excuse that BO was down 8% for the year.
Blu-ray's YoY growth trends are more sensitive to the strength of new release variation than DVD now because DVD is more and more riding on catalog sales as a base while Blu-ray's success in gaining high marketshare of new releases means it is more sensitive when those releases are stronger.

The gross TBO metric is not the major variable here, but you seem fixated on it.

Blu-ray has been as high as +33% in that cumulative metric after Twilight Saga and has increased after major releases as well. The last time the TBO went to even Blu-ray was much higher in the YoY cumulative gain so there is not of correlation between the total TBO number and the total revenue numbers at this time of the year.

As we see more major releases hit the street we will get a better judge of the growth trends for Blu-ray for this year.
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Old 06-08-2012, 05:00 AM   #3193  
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I think it's because Blurays base for new sales is drying up. Players have been cheap enough that if anyone wanted a Bluray player they would have bought one by now. The majority of the sales from here on out are going to come from people replacing a broken DVD player. And those consumers are not going to buy a lot of Bluray movies. Plus those numbers are going to be small enough to go unnoticed. Thus disc sales flatten prematurely and Bluray peaks very early with very small numbers for sales compared to a successful format like VHS or DVD. Bluray ends up being a niche product.
There is no evidence at all to support your assertion that the majority of Blu-ray player sales will go to households that already have a Blu-ray player.


If that's the case then Blu-ray household penetration will not grow at all in the next quarterly reports we see and Blu-ray sales will as a result not rise above their current levels for the rest of the year.

Consumer electronic hardware sales are heavily concentrated in the Sep-Dec months so that's where the primary growth in the user base occurs.


Something that is selling millions of units per week and generating billions of revenues per year and is sold across major retailers in the country is not a "niche product". Nor is something that is routinely getting over 50% marketshare of major new releases.

I doubt that is going to happen but we shall see.
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Old 06-08-2012, 05:06 AM   #3194  
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Why in the world would you consider using all movies that have a TBO of $25 million or more . . . 90 % of all movies . . . a "simple metric?"

Oh - I know why . . . it levels the playing field, balances the scales, something that you don't want.

The last thing you want is a black and white analysis. You LIVE for shades of gray analysis. It allows you to make all kinds of excuses as to why BD is not performing at levels that your peers feel it should be and isn't.
Observing what is happening and explaining factors that help influence the results we see is not "excuses".

The TBO metric that bruceames was using was not just using the over $25 M titles either, it includes all titles that had a Blu-ray release. Its simplistic in that it only looks at one factor of the newly released titles uniqueness in a reporting period and ignores other factors that impact how those titles perform on home video or Blu-ray release.
'
That's why its not terribly well correlated with Blu-ray's sales performance at the moment and why the comparison between total TBO and cumulative YoY gains for Blu-ray at this instant is probably not too predictive at all of what Blu-ray will do later in the year.
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Old 06-08-2012, 05:07 AM   #3195  
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Simple huh? So explain the failure of MISSION IMPOSSIBLE: GHOST PROTOCOL on BD.

$209,397,903 BO
Tom Cruise
Action Genre
Successful series

The problem with your "you need X to sell BDs" is that it isn't a cast in concrete formula. Yet you continually bring it up like it's a blueprint for success.
How do you consider that a failure?

What estimates for the unit sales and revenues and marketshare for that title are you looking at?

Look at the Nielsen Videoscan first alert data in the next post, it clearly did well on Blu-ray.


Quote:
Just like your statements on how much new BD player sales are going to influence BD sell-through.
As Blu-ray player sales have increased Blu-ray unit sales, revenues and marketshare have increased year after year.

Last edited by Kosty; 06-08-2012 at 05:15 AM..
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