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Old 06-07-2012, 10:04 AM   #3166  
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Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
Sure, it's a bit of a factor when talking about a one week period, but the discussion over the last few days was never about a one week period. You really need to follow suit when you play your cards.
Be consistent in your arguments. You were the one bringing up the closing to even TBO and that's a moment in the last week or so so its a relevant factor.

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Originally Posted by Kosty
Its certainly as much of a factor for Blu-ray sales that adding in the TBO of romantic comedies or children's movies in the TBO data and thinking that makes a major impact on Blu-ray sales.
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So only the BO of the more BLu-ray favorable genres are truly representative of the impact of the TBO? Wow.
That's distorting what I said. I never said only.

The strength of the Blu-ray favorable releases is clearly a better correlative factor to the Blu-ray sales statistics than box office strength that's in the overall cumulative TBO total from non favorable genres to Blu-ray like romantic comedies and other things with lower BD share.



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I prefer not to cherry pick which titles I count, so I include them all (well those titles over $25 million anyway, which is 90% of the TBO) That way I get a far more accurate representation of what really went on during the period in question.
Its also distorting and non predictive. You just cannot ignore that some titles have more impact than others and its simplistic to just add up all the tiny numbers together. Then you wonder why it does not match the observed results.

The total TBO is an important metric to follow to be sure but you cannot ignore other considerations, such as major tentpoles or genre.

All are factors to consider and observing them as part of the analysis is not "cherry picking" especially if some of those factors explain the observations better than your simple all inclusive gross metrics.


Over time the total TBO metric will converge with those other factors as more and more releases occur in the year and things even out.

But this early in the year with less major titles in release as is seasonally expected the mix and genre and performance of the more powerful titles unique factors have an outside impact on the statistics that is not fully captured by just adding up all the box office numbers for probably hundreds of releases.

Its just not representative and probably very predictive at all of what we are likely to see as the year goes along.

It also explains why you see things like a closer DVD to Blu-ray performance gap that seems to mystify you except in some hint that you thinks its Blu-ray adoption slowing in a rush this year, contrary to the increasing marketshare of all new release genres across the board.

Again we shall see the trends clearer as time moves along.
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Old 06-07-2012, 10:19 AM   #3167  
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Be consistent in your arguments. You were the one bringing up the closing to even TBO and that's a moment in the last week or so so its a relevant factor.
I have been consistent. I mentioned the TBO for the whole year. Never once did I mention the TBO difference for just the last week.

So, explain to me how this one day offset is a relavent factor in a 147 day period? You are really reaching Kosty. I know things are bad but when you reach like this it makes me think you are desperate.
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Old 06-07-2012, 10:45 AM   #3168  
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That's distorting what I said. I never said only.

The strength of the Blu-ray favorable releases is clearly a better correlative factor to the Blu-ray sales statistics than box office strength that's in the overall cumulative TBO total from non favorable genres to Blu-ray like romantic comedies and other things with lower BD share.
Fair enough, but you did imply that the BO of the more favorable Blu-ray genres are more representative, and you just confirmed that above.

However that's not really true. The TBO includes all genres and the true effect is somewhere in the middle. Besides, we are comparing mixed genres from last year to mixed genres to this year. Cherry pick all you want but it's really misleading to state that the box office of Blu-ray favorable genres is more representative of the TBO, because it is an extreme. Comedy and family is the other extreme.
One extreme is not more representative that the other, thus they both need to be included in the pool to get an average and most accurate representation.


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Its also distorting and non predictive. You just cannot ignore that some titles have more impact than others and its simplistic to just add up all the tiny numbers together. Then you wonder why it does not match the observed results.

The total TBO is an important metric to follow to be sure but you cannot ignore other considerations, such as major tentpoles or genre.
Some titles have more, others have less. But by focusing on primarily the "more", just end up with a distorted viewpoint. I prefer not to go there and focus on the forest and not just the bigger trees.

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All are factors to consider and observing them as part of the analysis is not "cherry picking" especially if some of those factors explain the observations better than your simple all inclusive gross metrics.
Yes it is cherry picking. My "all inclusive gross metrics" includes the good and the bad (as far as genre favorable or high-low BO titles is concerned). How you think focusing only on the top titles is more representative than focusing on the whole group is beyond me.

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Over time the total TBO metric will converge with those other factors as more and more releases occur in the year and things even out.
Things have evened out. TBO is even for the year. Your claim that the genre mix is more favorable to BLu-ray this year than last is false. Perhaps what you mean by "evened out" is when the TBO is back up 5-10% YoY like it was in the first quarter?

Last edited by bruceames; 06-07-2012 at 11:01 AM..
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Old 06-07-2012, 10:56 AM   #3169  
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But this early in the year with less major titles in release as is seasonally expected the mix and genre and performance of the more powerful titles unique factors have an outside impact on the statistics that is not fully captured by just adding up all the box office numbers for probably hundreds of releases.

Its just not representative and probably very predictive at all of what we are likely to see as the year goes along.
"This early" in the year? Come on now, we have data for 21 weeks. That's over 40% of the year. Of course it's not going to be representative of the entire year, because we don't know what going to happen the rest of the year.

But it IS representative of the first 21 weeks of the year, because that's what happened. You can always say "it's not representative" for such and such time in the future. You can say last years data is not representative of this year, which is true. You can say in January, when the year-end DEG report comes out, that the 2012 data is not representative of what will happen in 2013. Blu-ray growth has been on a consistent downward curve the last two years and you keep saying "it's not representative" (except for Q3 last year, I'll give you that).

If you want to predict the future then go right ahead. I don't know what that is, so the only guide I can base any guess on is on current and historical growth trends. You seem to think they won't continue on the same path, that's cool. However I have no reason to think they won't.

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It also explains why you see things like a closer DVD to Blu-ray performance gap that seems to mystify you except in some hint that you thinks its Blu-ray adoption slowing in a rush this year, contrary to the increasing marketshare of all new release genres across the board.

Again we shall see the trends clearer as time moves along.
It is a mystery to me. The gap is much much smaller this quarter too.
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Old 06-07-2012, 11:51 AM   #3170  
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Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
I have been consistent. I mentioned the TBO for the whole year. Never once did I mention the TBO difference for just the last week.

So, explain to me how this one day offset is a relavent factor in a 147 day period? You are really reaching Kosty. I know things are bad but when you reach like this it makes me think you are desperate.
You mentioned the point that the TBO was close to even at this point in time, that's a momentary situation.

Its only a modest relevant factor when you are tying it to the TBO being almost even at this point. At this snapshot point.

Its obviously less of a factor for longer periods of time.

For a snapshot the TBO is leading the impact on revenues from the cascading revenue effect on subsequent weeks as well as that offset of a weekend day for the latest week. I stated that clearly above.

I'm not desperate at all but it seems you are stubborn to accept any factors that you are not fixated blindly upon as your favorite metrics of the moment.

The TBO impact is not all fully felt on the release week its spread out as well.
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Old 06-07-2012, 11:54 AM   #3171  
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Things have evened out. TBO is even for the year. Your claim that the genre mix is more favorable to BLu-ray this year than last is false. Perhaps what you mean by "evened out" is when the TBO is back up 5-10% YoY like it was in the first quarter?
Its a poor assumption that TBO or major new releases and the impact on the sales statistics happen at the same time. There is a future impact on subsequent weeks so when the TBO is changing its impact will not be fully felt for a few weeks.
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Old 06-07-2012, 12:06 PM   #3172  
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"This early" in the year? Come on now, we have data for 21 weeks. That's over 40% of the year. Of course it's not going to be representative of the entire year, because we don't know what going to happen the rest of the year.

Its not 40% of the sales volume for the year as the 4Q is substantially higher volumes.



Quote:
But it IS representative of the first 21 weeks of the year, because that's what happened. You can always say "it's not representative" for such and such time in the future. You can say last years data is not representative of this year, which is true. You can say in January, when the year-end DEG report comes out, that the 2012 data is not representative of what will happen in 2013. Blu-ray growth has been on a consistent downward curve the last two years and you keep saying "it's not representative" (except for Q3 last year, I'll give you that).
Blu-ray's growth has been increasing in marketshare revenues and unit sales. Its only the rate of the increase of growth that has slowed and we both know the box office being down last year was a large factor in the statistics.

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If you want to predict the future then go right ahead. I don't know what that is, so the only guide I can base any guess on is on current and historical growth trends. You seem to think they won't continue on the same path, that's cool. However I have no reason to think they won't.
We shall see. But I see factors that you want to ignore in the weekly data and longer term trends.

You seem focused only on the top line numbers and YoY comparisons and you ignore other adoption metrics like marketshare of titles and unit sales growth when you only focus on the total format revenues.

That's not the full story.

I see the amount of major Blu-ray favorable releases and better performing 2012 theatrical titles yet to hit the street and a promising summer release slate and titles like The Hunger Games and The Avengers as well as product mix factors and see that's its likely that things will continue to improve in the cumulative metrics.

It seems you want to ignore those things and only look at the gross measures such as weekly or cumulative revenues that are highly release comparison dependent and want to jump to conclusions.

It may be 21/52 weeks of data 40% of the calendar weeks but not 40% by any stretch of the seasonal volumes for the year. Right now that figure is dominated by the performance of a handful of unique tentpole titles as it is every year at this time.



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It is a mystery to me. The gap is much much smaller this quarter too.
Its a mystery to you because you do not want to consider the impact of other factors other than the ones you want to focus upon. Its not a mystery to me at all.

The gap was larger in the 1Q partially because of the volumes of the Twilight Saga moved. The gap is smaller in the 2Q partially because Mission Impossible 4 and some other recent titles had higher Blu-ray marketshares with above average volumes.
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Old 06-07-2012, 01:24 PM   #3173  
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I have to admire the guy for his obvious passion, and feel some sympathy for him too - somehow the bit about the studio execs calling him up reminded me of Sara in Requiem for a Dream.

I think much of what he says comes with the benefit of hindsight rather than any foresight he and Toshiba might have had. For one, I really don't buy that they bet and lost at least $1 billion, probably a lot more, on a format that they genuinely believed would have a lifespan of only a few years. Now if he was talking from Microsoft's perspective I'd find it more believable, but not Toshiba - they put far too much money and effort into HD DVD for it to be a stop-gap for them.

A slight case of the loser trying to re-write history? I think maybe so.

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I thought the same thing while reading it.
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Old 06-07-2012, 03:38 PM   #3174  
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You mentioned the point that the TBO was close to even at this point in time, that's a momentary situation.
That's an astute observation. If I didn't know any better, I would have thought that it would be a permanent situation.

Obviously it's momentary, jeez. The point is, we have a snapshot of how Blu-ray (and DVD) is doing under even TBO conditions. A snapshot of it under even conditions would be certainly more reliable than under uneven box office, as the release bias is minimized and we see how the formats are doing without any "help" or under disadvantageous conditions.
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Old 06-07-2012, 03:41 PM   #3175  
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Its a poor assumption that TBO or major new releases and the impact on the sales statistics happen at the same time. There is a future impact on subsequent weeks so when the TBO is changing its impact will not be fully felt for a few weeks.
Oh come on now. Week 2 attrition is around 70 to 80% and it gets worse from then on. The BO impact of a title is primarily felt on week 1.
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Old 06-07-2012, 03:59 PM   #3176  
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Its not 40% of the sales volume for the year as the 4Q is substantially higher volumes.
Ok, so it's not. Revenue-wise it's probably around 33%, which is definitely not insignificant.



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Blu-ray's growth has been increasing in marketshare revenues and unit sales. Its only the rate of the increase of growth that has slowed and we both know the box office being down last year was a large factor in the statistics.
Blu-ray's growth in market share has been very steady and very linear. However it's been very slow considering it's a new format. If you consider Blu-ray to be just a supplementary format to go alongside of DVD, then I guess it's doing OK marketshare-wise.

But this year the marketshare growth has slowed. The YoY growth has been slowing for about 2 years now.


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We shall see. But I see factors that you want to ignore in the weekly data and longer term trends.

You seem focused only on the top line numbers and YoY comparisons and you ignore other adoption metrics like marketshare of titles and unit sales growth when you only focus on the total format revenues.

That's not the full story.
I know what the market share growth is on T20 titles as well as the marketshare growth on all titles.

Show me your metrics Kosty. All I'm seeing from you are a list of $100+ plus box office titles in different colors.

On the other hand I am providing solid summary data that encompasses everything. I don't cherry pick. You are the one that's ignoring most of the BO effect.

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I see the amount of major Blu-ray favorable releases and better performing 2012 theatrical titles yet to hit the street and a promising summer release slate and titles like The Hunger Games and The Avengers as well as product mix factors and see that's its likely that things will continue to improve in the cumulative metrics.
Cool. And those titles will be compared to those of last year. Your point?

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It seems you want to ignore those things and only look at the gross measures such as weekly or cumulative revenues that are highly release comparison dependent and want to jump to conclusions.
It's true I am ignoring on what hasn't come out yet. I really don't have a clue right now. But I tend to focus on what has already transpired so I'm not worried about it.



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Its a mystery to you because you do not want to consider the impact of other factors other than the ones you want to focus upon. Its not a mystery to me at all.

The gap was larger in the 1Q partially because of the volumes of the Twilight Saga moved. The gap is smaller in the 2Q partially because Mission Impossible 4 and some other recent titles had higher Blu-ray marketshares with above average volumes.
What other factors? Unless you can quantify something for me, I'm going to chalk up your "analysis" to biased speculation.

Box office is flat. End of story. Last year you used TBO repeatedly as excuse and now you want to ignore and focus on the "intangibles" like Twilight (which I've already proved has helped Blu-ray more than DVD), unfavorable genres, a silly one day offset over a 147 measuring period, future effect of already released titles, and other excuses.
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Old 06-07-2012, 04:26 PM   #3177  
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Oh come on now. Week 2 attrition is around 70 to 80% and it gets worse from then on. The BO impact of a title is primarily felt on week 1.
Part of that release week in the Nielsen Videscan (Rentrak T-N etc) data is the Sunday for the release week which falls into the next week in the Sat-Sun HMM revenue stats.

Its also more significant than a catalog title for three weeks afterward up to eight weeks after release where it then falls off into the masses.
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Old 06-07-2012, 04:29 PM   #3178  
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That's an astute observation. If I didn't know any better, I would have thought that it would be a permanent situation.

Obviously it's momentary, jeez. The point is, we have a snapshot of how Blu-ray (and DVD) is doing under even TBO conditions. A snapshot of it under even conditions would be certainly more reliable than under uneven box office, as the release bias is minimized and we see how the formats are doing without any "help" or under disadvantageous conditions.
Its better of course to be close in the TBO but its still just one factor of many in these generally seasonally slow months.

Over time the TBO factor will be more correlated with home video performance like in entire quarters or the entire year, but now its still correlated much less significantly with the sales numbers as single titles or events can have a larger impact in this lower volume period. Its a clue not much than that at the moment.
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Old 06-07-2012, 04:32 PM   #3179  
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.The next three weeks worth of data will leave the TBO not that much changed YoY but will have a number of action releases that should have good Blu-ray marketshare. So just comparing right now with that day three weeks after those releases check in will have a similar TBO but probably better numbers for Blu-ray.
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Old 06-07-2012, 04:47 PM   #3180  
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TBO EOY 2011 9.936 B

TBO EOY 2010 10.820 B




Current TBO through week #21 is 3.604 B

36.2% of TBO EOY 2011

33.3% of TBO EOY 2010


That's not even accounting for the higher 4Q holiday catalog sales volumes.





2011 EOY BD (HMM reported) $2001.42 M

2011 EOY BD (DEG reported) $2150.00 M


2011 YTD BD (through week 21) $647.23 M (including early 2Q tentpoles)

32.3% of EOY BD (HMM)
30.1% of EOY BD (DEG)
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