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Optical (Blu-ray/DVD) and Digital (EST/UV) Sales Thread

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Old 06-07-2012, 02:30 AM   #3151  
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Link here

http://consumerelectronicsdaily.com/...t-Toshiba.aspx

Quote:
Originally Posted by mikemorel View Post



Blow up of Paragraph 6:


Last edited by Kosty; 06-07-2012 at 02:34 AM..
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Old 06-07-2012, 02:38 AM   #3152  
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Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
That's right, taking a snapshot of the TBO over a 21 week period with a 1 day offset. A 1 day offset over a 147 day period is beyond trivial.

So what's the point of you mentioning the offset again?
Its a bit of a factor in any period where there is a week where there is favorable genre Blu-ray releases especially if you are taking some sort of a snapshot with your TBO observation. I was mentioning it among the factors for completeness sake.

Its not that trivial is its one six of more of the effect of a major release week for new sales where there are few major action titles in the reporting period.

Its certainly as much of a factor for Blu-ray sales that adding in the TBO of romantic comedies or children's movies in the TBO data and thinking that makes a major impact on Blu-ray sales.
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Old 06-07-2012, 02:40 AM   #3153  
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Originally Posted by Malanthius View Post
Lol. You know why... Shhhhh!

I never said it was a huge factor, just one of many.
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Old 06-07-2012, 02:52 AM   #3154  
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Nice find mike. All that confirms what my gut told me. Makes total sense. Can't wait to hear the dismissal of all this info. Although most of those guys have disappeared. Not suprised considering the state of sales numbers.
What has that to do with the sales numbers again?

That article seems perfectly accurate and that's the way I remember the primary arguments for HD DVD at the time.

I would not only not dismiss the information, I would personally confirm it as being the position of all of the HD DVD insiders and marketing and technical people I interacted with during the format war. I probably had 5,000 posts during the format war that argued those specific points as well.

The fact that the HD DVD side was willing to compromise on the physical form factor though in those talks made much of the HD DVD arguments more complicated. Interesting that the trade magazine leak complicated the talks. Accepting the Blu-ray 0.1 mm thick form factor possibly meant some complications with HD DVD simple production techniques including possible issues with combo disc production IIRC.

Seems to be spot on from the arguments from the HD DVD side that the extra capacity of Blu-ray and its potential for future growth was not worth the quicker potential of HD DVD to be fully implemented and mainstream as a DVD successor.

But once the unification talks broke down and the format war started some of those arguments became obsolete as the idea of an unified format being launched quicker and wiser was forever lost.
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Old 06-07-2012, 02:57 AM   #3155  
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Of course mikemorel would like to see someone mention that the format war or Blu-ray delayed studio distribution emphasis and that some at the studios on the digital side might mention that.

But that ignores the fact that studios still make a lot of money from physical media and consumers are still willing to pay more for something physical that something rented or bought from the digital only cloud.

Even during the format war mikemorel was less a HD DVD backer than anti Blu-ray as it was clear he thought HD DVD was the quicker path to all digital in the future. Of course that was exactly the reason many Blu-ray fans distrusted Microsoft's backing of HD DVD as well.
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Old 06-07-2012, 05:36 AM   #3156  
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But that ignores the fact that studios still make a lot of money from physical media and consumers are still willing to pay more for something physical that something rented or bought from the digital only cloud.
But the reality is . . . they don't make anywheres near as much money as they used to. And they are not shy about letting everyone know this.

You can't just point to a DEG OD sell-through number - thats a retail number. The studios don't get all that just like when you look at a box off take - that's retail too.

Nor can you use DEG OD rental revenue numbers. The lions share of that goes to the rentailers.

So in reality . . the studios aren't making "a lot" of money from physical media.

You want to know where the studios make their big money nowadays . . . licensing their films for television.
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Old 06-07-2012, 05:56 AM   #3157  
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Originally Posted by mikemorel View Post
I have to admire the guy for his obvious passion, and feel some sympathy for him too - somehow the bit about the studio execs calling him up reminded me of Sara in Requiem for a Dream.

I think much of what he says comes with the benefit of hindsight rather than any foresight he and Toshiba might have had. For one, I really don't buy that they bet and lost at least $1 billion, probably a lot more, on a format that they genuinely believed would have a lifespan of only a few years. Now if he was talking from Microsoft's perspective I'd find it more believable, but not Toshiba - they put far too much money and effort into HD DVD for it to be a stop-gap for them.

A slight case of the loser trying to re-write history? I think maybe so.

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Old 06-07-2012, 06:44 AM   #3158  
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To clarify I don't think anybody on the HD DVD side thought that the format was only going to have a lifecycle of only a few years, not even at Microsoft or I would assume mikemorel as well, even if they thought the trends to the cloud were increasing.

One argument for HD DVD was that it could be deployed quicker and mainstream faster so it could come in full force faster before cloud based options were mature.

Plus every HD DVD player had a mandated HDi capable Internet connection in its required hardware so supplemental and bonus content or studio digital rights management in the cloud could be deployed to every HD DVD user in the future.
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Old 06-07-2012, 07:27 AM   #3159  
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To clarify I don't think anybody on the HD DVD side thought that the format was only going to have a lifecycle of only a few years, not even at Microsoft or I would assume mikemorel as well, even if they thought the trends to the cloud were increasing.
He says he knew that the life expectancy of either format would be short, and goes on to say he believes the studios "lost a couple of years" establishing Blu-Ray when they could have been building the digital market. That seems to indicate he believes they should have shifted focus from disk to digital in 2010 or so at the latest.

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Originally Posted by Kosty
One argument for HD DVD was that it could be deployed quicker and mainstream faster so it could come in full force faster before cloud based options were mature.
That's an argument I've seen made too, but one that doesn't seem to have held much water.

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Originally Posted by Kosty
Plus every HD DVD player had a mandated HDi capable Internet connection in its required hardware so supplemental and bonus content or studio digital rights management in the cloud could be deployed to every HD DVD user in the future.
Useful features no doubt, but I think history has shown that they're hardly a "killer app" for HD DVD, or for Blu-Ray for that matter (when it eventually caught up).

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Old 06-07-2012, 07:37 AM   #3160  
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I think both formats were expected to be robust beyond 2010. I saw internal projections from both the HD DVD and Blu-ray sides that had both formats growing beyond 4Q 2010 under any scenario. I doubt Toshiba would have fielded HD DVD reaching early adoption in 2007 and mainstream in 2008 if they thought it would be dead or slowing by 2010.

Both HDi and BD-J have been surpassed by portable devices and common Internet wifi connections although HDi would not be as robust as BD-J has still the potential for things like second screen apps.
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Old 06-07-2012, 08:43 AM   #3161  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ray Von Geezer View Post
I have to admire the guy for his obvious passion, and feel some sympathy for him too - somehow the bit about the studio execs calling him up reminded me of Sara in Requiem for a Dream.

I think much of what he says comes with the benefit of hindsight rather than any foresight he and Toshiba might have had. For one, I really don't buy that they bet and lost at least $1 billion, probably a lot more, on a format that they genuinely believed would have a lifespan of only a few years. Now if he was talking from Microsoft's perspective I'd find it more believable, but not Toshiba - they put far too much money and effort into HD DVD for it to be a stop-gap for them.

A slight case of the loser trying to re-write history? I think maybe so.

Ray Von
History on the format war has yet to be written. There is actually so little we really know that went on. And should a book ever come out, it's likely to be somewhat biased towards one side or the other. But hopefully a lot more details, confirmed by both side, will emerge to shed light on stuff that is just speculation now.
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Old 06-07-2012, 08:57 AM   #3162  
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My post had nothing to do with sales numbers. Not sure why you are asking that question? But since you asked it seems like sales numbers are not as good ass you try to lead people who read these forums to believe. The article states "studio regret". You say you agree with the article. But I'll bet you will deny this little tid bit. That goes against everything you have been preaching here. Why in the world would any studios have regret that they didn't listen more to Toshiba at the time? Only answer is that they are dissaponted with sales as the result. I'm sure you will think of another reason and tell us what he really ment.

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What has that to do with the sales numbers again?

That article seems perfectly accurate and that's the way I remember the primary arguments for HD DVD at the time.

I would not only not dismiss the information, I would personally confirm it as being the position of all of the HD DVD insiders and marketing and technical people I interacted with during the format war. I probably had 5,000 posts during the format war that argued those specific points as well.

The fact that the HD DVD side was willing to compromise on the physical form factor though in those talks made much of the HD DVD arguments more complicated. Interesting that the trade magazine leak complicated the talks. Accepting the Blu-ray 0.1 mm thick form factor possibly meant some complications with HD DVD simple production techniques including possible issues with combo disc production IIRC.

Seems to be spot on from the arguments from the HD DVD side that the extra capacity of Blu-ray and its potential for future growth was not worth the quicker potential of HD DVD to be fully implemented and mainstream as a DVD successor.

But once the unification talks broke down and the format war started some of those arguments became obsolete as the idea of an unified format being launched quicker and wiser was forever lost.
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Old 06-07-2012, 09:04 AM   #3163  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
Its a bit of a factor in any period where there is a week where there is favorable genre Blu-ray releases especially if you are taking some sort of a snapshot with your TBO observation. I was mentioning it among the factors for completeness sake.

Its not that trivial is its one six of more of the effect of a major release week for new sales where there are few major action titles in the reporting period.
Sure, it's a bit of a factor when talking about a one week period, but the discussion over the last few days was never about a one week period. You really need to follow suit when you play your cards.

Quote:
Its certainly as much of a factor for Blu-ray sales that adding in the TBO of romantic comedies or children's movies in the TBO data and thinking that makes a major impact on Blu-ray sales.
So only the BO of the more BLu-ray favorable genres are truly representative of the impact of the TBO? Wow.

I prefer not to cherry pick which titles I count, so I include them all (well those titles over $25 million anyway, which is 90% of the TBO) That way I get a far more accurate representation of what really went on during the period in question.
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Old 06-07-2012, 09:10 AM   #3164  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
I think both formats were expected to be robust beyond 2010. I saw internal projections from both the HD DVD and Blu-ray sides that had both formats growing beyond 4Q 2010 under any scenario. I doubt Toshiba would have fielded HD DVD reaching early adoption in 2007 and mainstream in 2008 if they thought it would be dead or slowing by 2010.

Both HDi and BD-J have been surpassed by portable devices and common Internet wifi connections although HDi would not be as robust as BD-J has still the potential for things like second screen apps.
You've always told me there were NO expectations. At all! Funny to hear you say this now. I think you are starting to realize now that you can't keep dismissing all our thoughts.
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Old 06-07-2012, 09:51 AM   #3165  
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Originally Posted by Malanthius View Post
My post had nothing to do with sales numbers. Not sure why you are asking that question? But since you asked it seems like sales numbers are not as good ass you try to lead people who read these forums to believe. The article states "studio regret". You say you agree with the article. But I'll bet you will deny this little tid bit. That goes against everything you have been preaching here. Why in the world would any studios have regret that they didn't listen more to Toshiba at the time? Only answer is that they are dissaponted with sales as the result. I'm sure you will think of another reason and tell us what he really ment.
You mentioned sales numbers in your post.

Lots of people at the studios work on the digital side. But the format war nor Blu-ray has much to do with the studios not rolling out digital any faster or the fact that consumers are not willing to pay as much for cloud based things as they are for physical media.

Quote:
Nice find mike. All that confirms what my gut told me. Makes total sense. Can't wait to hear the dismissal of all this info. Although most of those guys have disappeared. Not suprised considering the state of sales numbers.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty
What has that to do with the sales numbers again?

That article seems perfectly accurate and that's the way I remember the primary arguments for HD DVD at the time.
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