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Old 11-28-2011, 08:37 PM   #301  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TowerGrove View Post
If Deathly Hollows Part 1 has brought in $81.43 million after about seven months of release. Should be expect more than that for the 2nd part?


http://www.the-numbers.com/interacti...hp?newsID=6786

EDIT: Noticed these are DVD numbers.
Yes.

HP1 week resulted in a $50.1 million HMM week vs. $54.4 for HP7.2.

HP7.1 did $294 million box office vs. $381 million for HP7.2

HP7.1 was released in April while HP7.2 was released in November.

HP7.1 week 2 was $45.83 million vs. $39.27 million for HP7.2 week 2.

Both were Friday releases, so "week 1" sales were spread out among the 2 HMM weeks.



So any way you slice it, $54.4 million is a huge disappointment.

Last edited by bruceames; 11-28-2011 at 08:43 PM..
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Old 11-28-2011, 08:38 PM   #302  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mikemorel View Post
At least I wasn't off by as much as others were.
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Old 11-28-2011, 08:50 PM   #303  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
Yes.

HP1 week resulted in a $50.1 million HMM week vs. $54.4 for HP7.2.

HP7.1 did $294 million box office vs. $381 million for HP7.2

HP7.1 was released in April while HP7.2 was released in November.

HP7.1 week 2 was $45.83 million vs. $39.27 million for HP7.2 week 2.

Both were Friday releases, so "week 1" sales were spread out among the 2 HMM weeks.



So any way you slice it, $54.4 million is a huge disappointment.
HP7.1 HMM revenue week also back in April also included the first Sunday sales of week 2 of Tron Legacy, Chronicles of Naria Dawn Treader and week 3 of Tangled which all contributed as well to the Blu-ray HMM reported revenues.

HP7.2 had the first Sunday and week 2 of Cars 2.
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Old 11-28-2011, 09:11 PM   #304  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
HP7.1 HMM revenue week also back in April also included the first Sunday sales of week 2 of Tron Legacy, Chronicles of Naria Dawn Treader and week 3 of Tangled which all contributed as well to the Blu-ray HMM reported revenues.

HP7.2 had the first Sunday and week 2 of Cars 2.
True, but HP7.2 had first Sunday sales of Cars 2, which I believe is the top title this year other than the two HP movies.
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Old 11-28-2011, 09:17 PM   #305  
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Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
Wow, HP week did only $54.22 million. That was way under even my supposedly pessimistic estimate of $70 million.

The follow up week did $39.27 million, BD up only 0.5%. It would have been negative, except for HP being a Friday release the week prior and week 2 sales helped.

Notice that DVD revenue in the latest week is still down 18% even though it's week 1 of POTC 4 for them. Barely registered a blip.

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/
OMG! That is an absolute train wreck!
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Old 11-28-2011, 09:20 PM   #306  
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Originally Posted by mikemorel View Post
Kosty predicted $90 - $99 million.

Wow.



OD is going to take a pounding in 2011.

And Blu-ray is going to show clear trending at leveling off in the next 18-24 months.
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Old 11-28-2011, 09:23 PM   #307  
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So how is this going to be spun post-mortem by those who were off by > $40 million for the week!!

We know it is going to be spun as "OK" or "not unexpected based on (insert excuse here)", but that is hard to believe when the estimates were SOOOO far off of reality.
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Old 11-28-2011, 09:38 PM   #308  
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Latest sales table, only 6 more weeks left this year.

Updated thru week ending 11/19/11
Table of Blu-ray sales (HMM and DEG)
numbers are in (revenue) millions.

Code:
2011 total  6637.43   -12.7%    5110.61   -20.0%    1526.82   25.9%    23.0%    8204.1  8569.2										
Week Date      OD     OD YoY      DVD    DVD YoY       BD    BD YoY  BD Share  TBO2011 TBO2010										

Q4 total    1158.34    -1.4%     783.08   -15.3%     375.26   49.6%    32.4%    1966.5  1680.5

46  11/19    166.84   -14.3%     127.57   -18.0%      39.27    0.5%    23.5%      41.6   359.0
45  11/12    183.17     2.5%     128.95   -12.0%      54.22   68.3%    29.6%     422.9   251.3
44  11/5     167.53   -16.8%     117.59   -22.8%      49.94    2.0%    29.8%     335.6   414.9
43  10/29    147.15    11.2%      96.66   -11.3%      50.49  115.6%    33.6%     204.5   108.7
42  10/22    156.94     9.5%      95.94   -17.1%      61.00  120.8%    38.9%     370.0    56.0
41  10/15    152.92    -2.4%     106.50   -14.1%      46.42   42.2%    30.4%     343.3   233.0
40  10/8     183.79     9.3%     109.87    -9.4%      73.92   57.7%    40.2%     248.6   257.6

Q3 DEG      1742.79    -4.0%    1320.93   -14.7%     421.86   58.0%    24.2%
Q3 total    1667.09    -4.9%    1298.39   -13.9%     368.70   49.9%    22.1%    1806.3  1609.5										

39  10/1     152.58   -14.3%     109.97   -20.4%      42.61    7.1%    27.9%     352.1   382.7
38  9/24     153.60     5.0%     108.69   -12.5%      44.91  103.6%    29.2%     169.3   112.5
37  9/17     164.69    14.0%     107.37   -14.2%      57.32  197.2%    34.8%     190.8   165.2
36  9/10     128.84     0.0%     102.29   -10.5%      26.55   82.9%    20.6%     189.3    60.3
35  9/3      119.04    -9.5%     100.87   -13.7%      18.17   23.5%    15.3%      65.6    95.1
34  8/27     109.34   -13.1%      91.74   -16.6%      17.60   11.5%    16.1%      12.6    45.3
33  8/20     124.53    -4.4%     101.11   -12.8%      23.42   63.3%    18.8%     100.8    81.2
32  8/13     122.13    -1.8%      98.44    -9.5%      23.69   51.8%    19.4%     118.0   143.9
31  8/6      139.66     1.4%     111.78    -3.6%      27.88   27.9%    20.0%     189.8   133.5
30  7/30     108.78   -18.3%      89.06   -20.2%      19.72   -8.7%    18.1%      56.8   177.2
29  7/23     120.50    -1.9%      97.25    -9.4%      23.25   49.9%    19.3%      88.3    72.7
28  7/16     118.09    -4.8%      94.88   -13.5%      23.21   61.7%    19.7%     267.8    94.7
27  7/9      105.31   -16.7%      84.94   -22.7%      20.37   22.9%    19.3%       5.1    45.2										
		
Q2 DEG      1831      -15.0%    1434      -18.8%     397       9.4%    21.7%
Q2 total    1791.55   -12.2%    1402.94   -16.7%     388.61    9.1%    21.7%    2314.8  2422.0

26  7/2      127.11   -12.3%      96.32   -21.6%      30.79   39.4%    24.2%     102.3   181.4
25  6/25     123.25    -7.7%      98.18   -12.8%      25.07   20.1%    20.3%     205.4    85.8
24  6/18     149.89   -11.2%     114.68   -17.7%      35.21   19.5%    23.5%     208.2   142.8
23  6/11     130.81   -13.6%     103.23   -18.6%      27.58   12.3%    21.1%     305.0   152.6
22  6/4      118.16   -34.1%      96.17   -32.8%      21.99  -39.1%    18.6%      15.8   386.8
21  5/28     113.83   -16.6%      91.37   -22.9%      22.46   24.9%    19.7%     154.4    87.9
20  5/21     111.98   -15.2%      91.84   -18.9%      20.14    7.2%    18.0%      99.8   185.7
19  5/14     111.02   -23.6%      90.00   -26.8%      21.02   -6.2%    18.9%     155.6   113.6
18  5/7      122.05   -25.2%      99.74   -29.5%      22.31   -7.7%    18.3%     141.5   106.1
17  4/30     106.99   -40.6%      86.94   -39.6%      20.05  -44.5%    18.7%       0.0   120.5
16  4/23     217.30    -8.3%     171.47    -0.3%      45.83  -29.4%    21.1%     187.5   841.3
15  4/16     184.50    48.7%     134.40    24.8%      50.10  205.3%    27.2%     314.8     8.1
14  4/9      174.66    21.6%     128.60     5.9%      46.06  107.5%    26.5%     424.5     9.4
										
Q1 DEG      2068      -20.0%    1661      -25.0%     407      10.0%    19.7%		
Q1 total    2020.45   -23.2%    1626.20   -28.4%     394.25    9.4%    19.5%    2116.5  2857.2

13  4/2      192.11   -36.0%     144.16   -44.6%      47.95   20.1%    25.0%     300.9   461.1
12  3/26     135.54   -49.8%     110.21   -50.9%      25.33  -44.1%    18.7%     218.0   335.6
11  3/19     138.72   -46.5%     112.58   -49.6%      26.14  -27.1%    18.8%     154.2   534.3
10  3/12     146.96   -24.4%     116.11   -30.8%      30.85   16.5%    21.0%     177.0   247.2
9   3/5      174.59    -7.2%     132.93   -15.4%      41.66   34.1%    23.9%     112.3   258.8
8   2/26     160.96     4.5%     130.35    -2.5%      30.61   50.7%    19.0%     258.0    74.9
7   2/19     172.68    -8.1%     143.99   -12.7%      28.69   25.0%    16.6%      86.2    80.1
6   2/12     172.00   -19.4%     145.34   -23.1%      26.66    8.9%    15.5%     224.0   211.0
5   2/5      158.26   -16.7%     131.08   -20.8%      27.18   11.1%    17.2%      23.0   114.6
4   1/29     151.21   -14.6%     122.05   -20.9%      29.16   27.6%    19.3%     201.2   151.6
3   1/22     131.62   -16.3%     107.98   -21.0%      23.64   14.8%    18.0%      60.7    61.0
2   1/15     135.49   -17.3%     108.51   -23.9%      26.98   27.0%    19.9%     143.3   137.8
1   1/8      150.31   -14.1%     120.91   -19.5%      29.40   18.6%    19.6%     157.7   189.2

OD = optical disc (DVD + Blu-ray)
YoY = year over year percentage change
TBO = total box office
BD = Blu-ray
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Old 11-28-2011, 09:40 PM   #309  
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So how is this going to be spun post-mortem by those who were off by > $40 million for the week!!

We know it is going to be spun as "OK" or "not unexpected based on (insert excuse here)", but that is hard to believe when the estimates were SOOOO far off of reality.
I'm sooooo looking forward to reading that. Man, lots of people were off guessing BD would do 30-40 million more than what it actually did. Wow. What a letdown. It's clear now that Blu-ray is peaking in 2012/2013 (and at a very low rate).
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Old 11-28-2011, 09:43 PM   #310  
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Originally Posted by mikemorel View Post
Kosty predicted $90 - $99 million.

Wow.



Damn. Those are some seriously sad numbers. BD would have been super-down this year if not for the numerous Scam packs, DVD Delays etc. How anyone could think these numbers are good is beyond me. And guessing 90-99 mil as optimistic? Woah.

Netflix and Apple are doing their jobs. People are fleeing discs for streaming/VOD in huge numbers...or people are just finding other things to do with their time. These are very depressing numbers. Q4 is lookin real bad.
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Old 11-28-2011, 09:43 PM   #311  
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BD with 6 weeks left is at 25.9% YoY, and given the huge box office deficit the remainder of the year (about $650 million total, or, about 30% less than last year), I see no place it can go but down.

Last year those 6 weeks did $490 million. That's an average of $81.67 million per week that Blu-ray will have to do just to break even.

Last edited by bruceames; 11-28-2011 at 09:47 PM..
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Old 11-28-2011, 09:45 PM   #312  
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I am kind of floored at just how bad those numbers are. I don't recall anyone expecting HP 7.2 release week to be sub $55 million for Blu-ray.

And if they had predicted that, they likely would have been called crazy (at best) and a pessimistic cult member (at worst).

Second week of HP 7.2 (during the peak Q4 period) at $39.27 million is almost impossible to believe.

If next week (Black Friday) is not blockbuster for BD and OD, then 2011 is going to be a very bad year for the studios in Home Video sell through.
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Old 11-28-2011, 09:47 PM   #313  
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BD with 6 weeks left is at 25.9% YoY, and given the huge box office deficit the remainder of the year (about $650 million total, or, about 30% less than last year), I see no place it can go but down.
At the beginning of the year, I thought BD would do about 40% growth this year.

At the end of H1 (with single digit BD growth), I thought that it would end up closer to 20%.

Looks like I may have been too optimistic at the beginning of the year, but right on target after the trend lines setup during the first half.
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Old 11-28-2011, 09:48 PM   #314  
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I am kind of floored at just how bad those numbers are. I don't recall anyone expecting HP 7.2 release week to be sub $55 million for Blu-ray.

And if they had predicted that, they likely would have been called crazy (at best) and a pessimistic cult member (at worst).

Second week of HP 7.2 (during the peak Q4 period) at $39.27 million is almost impossible to believe.

If next week (Black Friday) is not blockbuster for BD and OD, then 2011 is going to be a very bad year for the studios in Home Video sell through.
You nailed the crazy/pessimistic part. This has to be very depressing news for some people...and Warner. HP7.2 was as low as $10 on BF week, which likely resulted in some returns/price reductions.

BF will likely be decent enough. They sold lots of volume...but did they actually make money? $4 for Pulp Fiction and a retailer is supposed to make money off of it?
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Old 11-28-2011, 09:50 PM   #315  
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BD with 6 weeks left is at 25.9% YoY, and given the huge box office deficit the remainder of the year (about $650 million total, or, about 30% less than last year), I see no place it can go but down.

Last year those 6 weeks did $490 million. That's an average of $81.67 million per week that Blu-ray will have to do just to break even.
That 26% is also with
- 4 Week DVD Delays for retail
- 28+ Rental Delays (if not longer)
- Nearly every New Release BD being packed with a DVD and/or DC/UV.
- 3D Premium (which is supposed to be selling like hotcakes lol)
- Millions more BD players old

What the heck is going on? Is it...true? People are using their BD players for other things like playing their existing collection? Streaming Netflix? Vudu?

How will retailers respond to these numbers? A shrink in OD is clearly in the very near future.
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