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Old 06-05-2012, 04:42 PM   #3121  
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Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
That would be true if that "burst" were the norm going forward. But one doesn't get a "better idea" of where Blu-ray is going after the good weeks any more than after the bad. And for that matter that last several weeks have been pretty good. We have near par box office for the year, so I think now is a reasonable barometer of where things stand. Certainly more so than waiting to see where they are if/when the BO YoY is up 5% again.
Kosty has taken up the BD mantra . . .

"Just wait!"

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Old 06-05-2012, 06:32 PM   #3122  
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If you do not think that the genre mixes and strength have not had much impact this year, then there is not much more to say than we will see as time moves along.

You asked the question of why the delta is smaller and then you refuse to consider the obvious answer that the releases have something to do with that even with the TBO gross factor swaying back and forth.

The big differences between this year and last is Twilight Saga movie in the 1Q and one Blu-ray favorable tentpole in the 2Q so far (MI4) compared to two almost three in the 2Q last year (Tangled last week 1Q, Tron Legacy and Harry Potter 7.1)

You are asking the question and the answer is staring you in the face and you do not want to consider it as a major factor. Its hardly a mystery.

As the year goes along and better performing Blu-ray titles hit the streets and better new releases come along the cumulative numbers for Blu-ray YoY will improve as the year moves along.

The theatrical box office this year is well up and that will help DVD and Blu-ray even more with new releases and the summer releases look like they have strong potential as well.

Its just kinda premature to take a slow seasonal period like the first half of the 2Q we have seen with weaker releases and project it out through the rest of the year.
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Old 06-05-2012, 06:34 PM   #3123  
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Kosty has taken up the BD mantra . . .

"Just wait!"

Of course we have to wait and see how the better releases do later in the year and being down substantially in the 2Q TBO and release wise is not a representative sample of how the rest of the year will turn out.
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Old 06-05-2012, 09:19 PM   #3124  
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Of course we have to wait and see how the better releases do later in the year and being down substantially in the 2Q TBO and release wise is not a representative sample of how the rest of the year will turn out.
So I guess High Definition (the best you can get) and HD Audio (the best you can get) just aren't good enough to attract more buyers huh?
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Old 06-05-2012, 09:42 PM   #3125  
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Of course we have to wait and see how the better releases do later in the year and being down substantially in the 2Q TBO and release wise is not a representative sample of how the rest of the year will turn out.
And being even for the whole year box office wise isn't a fair representative sample either?
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Old 06-05-2012, 10:00 PM   #3126  
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If you do not think that the genre mixes and strength have not had much impact this year, then there is not much more to say than we will see as time moves along.
I do not think the mix of genres has had an abnormal effect. Last year at this time you were complaining the releases were skewed because of Avatar. And now this year it's because of Twilight. Every year now Blu-ray is floundering because some release is skewing the mix. It's like a broken record.

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You asked the question of why the delta is smaller and then you refuse to consider the obvious answer that the releases have something to do with that even with the TBO gross factor swaying back and forth.

The big differences between this year and last is Twilight Saga movie in the 1Q and one Blu-ray favorable tentpole in the 2Q so far (MI4) compared to two almost three in the 2Q last year (Tangled last week 1Q, Tron Legacy and Harry Potter 7.1)

You are asking the question and the answer is staring you in the face and you do not want to consider it as a major factor. Its hardly a mystery.
The delta is much smaller this quarter. Twilight was released last quarter in week 5, and box office is practically even for the year. I think it's high time to let Twilight go and stop using it as an excuse for Blu-ray's shortcomings. After all, Twilight helped boost Blu-ray's YoY AND market share MORE than it did DVD. The sooner you get that FACT into your head, the better.

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As the year goes along and better performing Blu-ray titles hit the streets and better new releases come along the cumulative numbers for Blu-ray YoY will improve as the year moves along.

The theatrical box office this year is well up and that will help DVD and Blu-ray even more with new releases and the summer releases look like they have strong potential as well.
Could be. Sounds though like you are leaning on future YoY box office improvement as a crutch for YoY Blu-ray improvement. At this early stage, it should not be coming down to that.

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Its just kinda premature to take a slow seasonal period like the first half of the 2Q we have seen with weaker releases and project it out through the rest of the year.
Nobody is projecting anything. I am simply observing the long term trend in declining growth and calling a spade a spade. If you think that trend will reverse itself, good for you, we'll see if that comes to pass. But to depend on a strong YoY box office improvement for that to happen is hoping for the wrong reasons. It would after all make next year especially difficult to measure up to (strong BO improvement is not sustainable), but I guess you'll cross that bridge when you come to it?
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Old 06-05-2012, 10:03 PM   #3127  
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And being even for the whole year box office wise isn't a fair representative sample either?
You mean last year 2011 vs 2012?

I'm just saying it too early to project right now where the end of the year will be.

I see many positive things that you like to discount in some of the other than top line numbers.

I'm not the only one that thinks that way even if I'm outnumbered at times around here.
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Old 06-05-2012, 10:10 PM   #3128  
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You mean last year 2011 vs 2012?

I'm just saying it too early to project right now where the end of the year will be.

I see many positive things that you like to discount in some of the other than top line numbers.

I'm not the only one that thinks that way even if I'm outnumbered at times around here.
Yes. TBO 2012 is $3570 million and TBO 2011 is $3622 million. Down 1.4%, statistically flat.

I would be very disappointed in you if you didn't see many positive things about Blu-ray sales. For one I can think of top 20 market share improving to a decent level where Blu-ray favorable titles routinely get over a 50% week 1 share, but after that it gets tough.
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Old 06-05-2012, 10:16 PM   #3129  
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Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
I do not think the mix of genres has had an abnormal effect. Last year at this time you were complaining the releases were skewed because of Avatar. And now this year it's because of Twilight. Every year now Blu-ray is floundering because some release is skewing the mix. It's like a broken record.
Come on now. Those are two different things. Twilight sold a lot of DVDs so it has help DVD's numbers this year and helps a bunch in explaining why DVD is doing better this year and the BD vs DVD delta is tighter.

Avatar in the 2Q comparisons last year affected the statistics a lot as any mega title in the 1Q 2Q 3Q will do so as there are less of them to go around. Tangled Tron Legacy and Harry Potter in the 2Q was better than just MI4 alone as a tentpole in firepower as well. But that will balance out over time.



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The delta is much smaller this quarter. Twilight was released last quarter in week 5, and box office is practically even for the year. I think it's high time to let Twilight go and stop using it as an excuse for Blu-ray's shortcomings. After all, Twilight helped boost Blu-ray's YoY AND market share MORE than it did DVD. The sooner you get that FACT into your head, the better.
Twilight helped sell a lot of Blu-ray but it was only a 24% BD share title and you are talking about the difference between DVD and BD here. Think. You are wondering about why DVD is doing proportionally better and you want to ignore one of the major differences between last year and this year a Twilight Saga title.

Twilight boosted Blu-ray'YoY because its a high volume title and those are rare this time of year, but it also helped DVD a bunch too.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty
As the year goes along and better performing Blu-ray titles hit the streets and better new releases come along the cumulative numbers for Blu-ray YoY will improve as the year moves along.

The theatrical box office this year is well up and that will help DVD and Blu-ray even more with new releases and the summer releases look like they have strong potential as well.
Quote:
Could be. Sounds though like you are leaning on future YoY box office improvement as a crutch for YoY Blu-ray improvement. At this early stage, it should not be coming down to that.
No crutch at all. Only a realization that Blu-ray is higher in marketshare with new releases year after year and action orientated or major new releases are going to help out Blu-ray probably more than DVD at this stage in their format life cycles.


Quote:
Nobody is projecting anything. I am simply observing the long term trend in declining growth and calling a spade a spade. If you think that trend will reverse itself, good for you, we'll see if that comes to pass. But to depend on a strong YoY box office improvement for that to happen is hoping for the wrong reasons. It would after all make next year especially difficult to measure up to (strong BO improvement is not sustainable), but I guess you'll cross that bridge when you come to it?
Blu-ray does better with new releases and with stronger titles and those happen more and more in the second half of the year than the first half.

The 2Q comparisons are being hammered by the release comparisons and that's starting to swing back a bit right now as the 2012 theatrical titles are coming into their home video windows.

2013 vs 2012 is in the future but of course a strong 2012 will make the YoY comparisons tougher next year. But this fall will grow the user base even more so things will still gain in the future.

We shall see.
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Old 06-05-2012, 10:22 PM   #3130  
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Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
Yes. TBO 2012 is $3570 million and TBO 2011 is $3622 million. Down 1.4%, statistically flat.

I would be very disappointed in you if you didn't see many positive things about Blu-ray sales. For one I can think of top 20 market share improving to a decent level where Blu-ray favorable titles routinely get over a 50% week 1 share, but after that it gets tough.
As we discussed before its also the number of high performing titles and their genre not just all the total TBO additions.

The next few weeks will not change the TBO much but will add a few Blu-ray friendly genre action releases. Lets see how things change YoY wise for Blu-ray even if the TBO change is modest based on that variable as well. I think that will prove even a better predictor than the TBO.
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Old 06-06-2012, 09:32 AM   #3131  
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Twilight helped sell a lot of Blu-ray but it was only a 24% BD share title and you are talking about the difference between DVD and BD here. Think. You are wondering about why DVD is doing proportionally better and you want to ignore one of the major differences between last year and this year a Twilight Saga title.
That 24% share is in units. Revenue-wise it's about 30% (assuming the BD costs 25% more than the DVD), which is quite a bit higher than the 23.8% overall BD share.

By the same token, it got a 70% DVD revenue share, which is lower than the prevailing 76.2% overall DVD share. So it was a drag on DVD's share.

YoY-wise is harder to gauge because we don't know what the units sold were for Twilight. But mathematically, as long as the BD revenue share of this title was higher than the overall share, it will hurt the BD share more if Twilight's revenue were removed from the equation. It's easy to prove, here's an example:

(HMM) Q1 revenue (in millions)--> 2012 vs. 2011, YoY % change:

DVD--> $1531 vs. $1639, DOWN 6.6%

BD--> $479 vs. $396, UP 20.9%

Let's make a reasonable guess that Twilight sold 6 million units across both formats. Let's say the average selling price was $22, so that's $132 million in revenue. At a 30% Blu-ray share, that $40 million for Blu-ray and $92 million for DVD. If we subtract those figures from the Q1 totals, in order to see what impact this title had on the YoY of both formats, we get:

DVD--> $1439 vs. $1639, DOWN 12.2%

BD--> $439 vs. $396, UP 10.9%

So you see, Blu-ray went from 20.9% to 10.9%, a drop of 10.0%, while DVD dropped from -6.6% to 12.2%, a fall of 5.6%.

It doesn't matter what revenue guess you use, whether it's $80 or $300 million, subtracting that out will always hurt the YoY of Blu-ray more than it will of DVD.

So once again, please spare us the Twilight excuse as to why Blu-ray is underperforming compared to DVD. It is simply and unequivocally not at all the reason. By ANY means. On the contrary, it helped BD more much than it hurt, in EVERY way.

For those that are curious, not that an example is needed, but applying that example to the change in market share, we get Blu-ray share falling from 23.8% to 23.4%, if Twilight's effect were taken out of the figures. And the higher the number subtracted out, the further that market share falls (for example, if Twilight sold $232 million in revenue, then the share drops to 23%).
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Last edited by bruceames; 06-06-2012 at 09:43 AM..
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Old 06-06-2012, 09:41 AM   #3132  
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I understand the math and get your point completely, but somehow I can't get my point across to you in a way that makes sense to you.

Let me think about it and try to make a better case so you understand what I'm trying to say.
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Old 06-06-2012, 09:49 AM   #3133  
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Blu-ray does better with new releases and with stronger titles and those happen more and more in the second half of the year than the first half.
Obviously, come on now. This has been the case for years. That's why we have year over year comparisons for revenue change instead of quarter over quarter. Do you think Blu-ray's late Q4 and Q4 performance will be judged against how well in did in the first half of this year?

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The 2Q comparisons are being hammered by the release comparisons and that's starting to swing back a bit right now as the 2012 theatrical titles are coming into their home video windows.
Again, while TBO is down this quarter, it was up last quarter. The net result is that the TBO is flat for the year. Personally I think the 21 week sample size is more representative than your 8 week sample, especially since it's for the entire year thus far and even more so since it results in a even TBO comparison. But that's just me.
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Old 06-06-2012, 10:27 AM   #3134  
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I understand the math and get your point completely, but somehow I can't get my point across to you in a way that makes sense to you.

Let me think about it and try to make a better case so you understand what I'm trying to say.
I don't know what that point could be.

Perhaps you think Twilight inspired more carry over DVD sales (other titles) than BD sales? Again, that would be relative and speculative to boot. If the carry over was more than 24% in BD's favor, then BD was helped more.

Perhaps you think that just because Twilight was not among the more favorable Blu-ray genres, then it didn't help Blu-ray as much as another equal caliber OD title would have in its place. Well of course not. If HP 7.2 were released in February and Twilight in December 2011, then the Q4 11 and Q1 12 YoY numbers would be different. But in all likelihood the net result would be similar.

Just because a top OD title is not in the most favorable Blu-ray genre does not mean Blu-ray was not favored by the sales results more than DVD. Blu-ray is a new release format. Relative to the market share, ALL top new releases favor Blu-ray over DVD (as long as the revenue share of that title exceeds the prevailing overall market share, which it invariably does now for top titles). Twilight is not an exception. Blame the studios for daring to release a top title that is not more BLu-ray friendly. That can't all be action / CGI flicks.
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Last edited by bruceames; 06-06-2012 at 10:30 AM..
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Old 06-06-2012, 10:40 AM   #3135  
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Obviously, come on now. This has been the case for years. That's why we have year over year comparisons for revenue change instead of quarter over quarter. Do you think Blu-ray's late Q4 and Q4 performance will be judged against how well in did in the first half of this year?



Again, while TBO is down this quarter, it was up last quarter. The net result is that the TBO is flat for the year. Personally I think the 21 week sample size is more representative than your 8 week sample, especially since it's for the entire year thus far and even more so since it results in a even TBO comparison. But that's just me.
You continue to think that the TBO is some sort of master factor here.

It clearly by itself does not explain the results we are seeing so that's why I am saying that other factors are having an influence in this slower seasonal time of the year.
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