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Old 05-31-2012, 08:56 PM   #3076  
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I think either format could have done the job of delivering high quality high definition movies to the home, that's why I supported HD DVD at the time as it was proven to work while Blu-ray during the format war was a hopeful work in progress.

Better encoding would have things better on even a dual layer 30 GB disc and flipper adding more on the other side could have fit more extras or another disc would be dirt cheap. 34 GB with 17GB per layer was available.

TL 51 discs would have feasible to do as well but no studio thought they were needed. 30 GB was enough to fit the main movie and extras could go on the back side or on another disc. For the few extra long movies add a disc.

AFAIK the only thing that HD DVD would have had difficulty with would be 3D movies as its an easier process with a 50 GB disc, but that could probably have been worked around as well. Who knows?
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Old 05-31-2012, 09:06 PM   #3077  
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So obviously you're not buying what Adam said about Warner not deciding until the 11th hour, right? I mean, if Warner knew HD DVD was "doomed" since November.
No, I think the issue was still in doubt until the last few days or weeks.

I think that some sort of final meeting in the last week at Warner decided the issue when they evaluated all the progress in BD50 replication yields and more capacity coming on line and had a chance to review the Christmas week holiday sales numbers of HD DVD and Blu-ray movies and hardware units sold. HD DVD was given a final chance in holiday season 4Q 2007 to break out as Blu-ray was not ready for mass market production and distribution at that moment anyway. But HD DVD only did OK, not super great.

Looking back at it I think the sales numbers for both formats were so low that that number was not a deciding factor. To me it was the improving production costs and capacity of BD50 replication that was the deciding factor and once those started improving HD DVD was doomed. I think that was the deciding factor but that it was not formally decided by Warner until just before they announced the decision before CES 2008. I do not disagree with Adam's timeline there at all.

If they could project that BD50 costs would get to acceptable levels or somewhat near DVD order of magnitude like they are now, then the economic argument for HD DVD fails.

Sony was never going to abandon Blu-ray as it was in the PS3 so the best outcome for HD DVD would be as a cheap alternative for catalog titles or a cheaper way for mass replication of releases. But that would have resulted in a dual format world. Once Blu-ray solved those BD50 production issues to the satisfaction of Warner then that undercut the case and reason for HD DVD once the format war started.

But I still think Warner was contemplating going HD DVD only up until the last couple weeks or even days before they announced their decision. At least that's what the HD DVD folks thought in Las Vegas in January 2008.

Last edited by Kosty; 05-31-2012 at 09:10 PM..
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Old 05-31-2012, 09:11 PM   #3078  
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No, I think the issue was still in doubt until the last few days or weeks.

I think that some sort of final meeting in the last week at Warner decided the issue when they evaluated all the progress in BD50 replication yields and more capacity coming on line and had a chance to review the Christmas week holiday sales numbers of HD DVD and Blu-ray movies and hardware units sold.

Looking back at it I think the sales numbers for both formats were so low that that number was not a deciding factor. To me it was the improving production costs and capacity of BD50 replication that was the deciding factor and once those started improving HD DVD was doomed.

If they could project that BD50 costs would get to acceptable levels or somewhat near DVD order of magnitude like they are now, then the economic argument for HD DVD fails.

Sony was never going to abandon Blu-ray as it was in the PS3 so the best outcome for HD DVD would be as a cheap alternative for catalog titles or a cheaper way for mass replication of releases. But that would have resulted in a dual format world. Once Blu-ray solved those BD50 production issues to the satisfaction of Warner then that undercut the case and reason for HD DVD once the format war started.

But I still think Warner was contemplating going HD DVD only up until the last couple weeks or even days before they announced their decision. At least that's what the HD DVD folks thought in Las Vegas in January 2008.
You keep going on about how it was the yields that Warner was waiting for, but you're the only one I've heard that one from. Maybe it was like Adam said, that Warner was going to go HD DVD up to the last minute before something fell through (like a deal with Fox going HD DVD at the same time). I really don't think Warner was worried long term about the yields and that it played no part in their decision. Either format would have been fine with them.
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Old 05-31-2012, 09:13 PM   #3079  
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Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
I think either format could have done the job of delivering high quality high definition movies to the home, that's why I supported HD DVD at the time as it was proven to work while Blu-ray during the format war was a hopeful work in progress.

Better encoding would have things better on even a dual layer 30 GB disc and flipper adding more on the other side could have fit more extras or another disc would be dirt cheap. 34 GB with 17GB per layer was available.

TL 51 discs would have feasible to do as well but no studio thought they were needed. 30 GB was enough to fit the main movie and extras could go on the back side or on another disc. For the few extra long movies add a disc.

AFAIK the only thing that HD DVD would have had difficulty with would be 3D movies as its an easier process with a 50 GB disc, but that could probably have been worked around as well. Who knows?
No current studios supporting HD DVD at the time were interested in 51GB Discs. Warner was happy enough to release movies using VC1 (which they still do off and on). Universal didn't seem to care and Paramount never had any issues. Even today Warners encodes are notoriously low (in size).

Disney was the one who wanted a bigger disc and I'm sure if they signed on the HD DVD camp would have made in a reality. Just like we never thought BD replication would get fixed back then. We're once again talking about a format that ceased all development in January 2008.

3D could have been a work around. New discs etc. Owners are required to buy new 3D Capable BD players anyway so who cares if they were not compatible with existing HD DVD decks. Buy a new one! Blu-ray has gone through so many spec changes over the years that the bleeding edge consumer who didn't want a video game console in their HT would likely be on there 5th or 6th one by now (1.0, 1.1, 2.0, "Apps", 3D etc).
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Old 05-31-2012, 09:16 PM   #3080  
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You keep going on about how it was the yields that Warner was waiting for, but you're the only one I've heard that one from. Maybe it was like Adam said, that Warner was going to go HD DVD up to the last minute before something fell through (like a deal with Fox going HD DVD at the same time). I really don't think Warner was worried long term about the yields and that it played no part in their decision. Either format would have been fine with them.
It all comes down to money and free discs.

Only the most naive person would think there was a. No money offered and b. No other "incentive" (i.e. free discs, advertising etc.).

The formats made next to nothing in sales. $200 million to go exclusive is a ton of money. Shit, I bet if HD DVD came back today there would be a studio or two jumping at that just looking at the pathetic Blu-ray numbers. Man, gotta wonder if Warner really thought Blu-ray would be so low 4 years after they went Blu.
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Old 05-31-2012, 09:20 PM   #3081  
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No current studios supporting HD DVD at the time were interested in 51GB Discs. Warner was happy enough to release movies using VC1 (which they still do off and on). Universal didn't seem to care and Paramount never had any issues. Even today Warners encodes are notoriously low (in size).

Disney was the one who wanted a bigger disc and I'm sure if they signed on the HD DVD camp would have made in a reality. Just like we never thought BD replication would get fixed back then. We're once again talking about a format that ceased all development in January 2008.

3D could have been a work around. New discs etc. Owners are required to buy new 3D Capable BD players anyway so who cares if they were not compatible with existing HD DVD decks. Buy a new one! Blu-ray has gone through so many spec changes over the years that the bleeding edge consumer who didn't want a video game console in their HT would likely be on there 5th or 6th one by now (1.0, 1.1, 2.0, "Apps", 3D etc).
Warner's encodes were easily the lowest bitrate between them, Universal and Paramount. The irony is that their PQ was the most raved about, and that the 2 titles was the highest bitrates, the original Full Metal Jacket and Christmas Story, were arguably the two titles with the worst PQ.

Here are, in ascending order, the WB titles with the lowest video bitrate. Few (if any) of these titles are actually associated with having a substandard PQ that I know of.

10.96 Lady in the Water
12.07 Mutiny on the Bounty (1962)
12.14 Ant Bully, The
12.70 V for Vendetta
12.73 Dukes of Hazzard, The
12.73 Blood Diamond
12.88 Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire
13.07 Happy Feet
13.15 Constantine
13.35 Troy
13.39 2001 - A Space Odyssey
13.49 Gods and Generals
13.53 Terminator 3 - Rise of the Machines
13.71 Batman Begins
13.72 Firewall
13.75 Polar Express, The
13.79 Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix
13.89 TMNT
13.90 Matrix Reloaded, The
13.96 Syriana
14.06 Matrix Revolutions, The
14.09 Grand Prix
14.16 Kiss Kiss Bang Bang
14.32 Reaping, The
14.38 Lake House, The
14.69 Shining, The
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Old 05-31-2012, 09:31 PM   #3082  
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30GB in 2008. You seem to forget HD DVD is frozen in time. They were working on 51GB Discs and if they came out, what would be the problem? No lossless? Again, 2008.

What next? What else can you put on a format that died 4.5 years ago.
You guys truly were gullible. And 200gb blu rays were around the corner.

You werent here but the hddvd fanboys use to go on and on about how HDDVD was cheap to make and had awesome yields. And that low bitrate VC-1 and DD+ were indistinguishable from blu rays. Now 3-4 years into the format quality matters and theyre supposed to deal with a triple layer process for 1gb more. And the studios would have been fine waiting for this vaporware? funny!
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Old 05-31-2012, 09:34 PM   #3083  
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Originally Posted by GizmoDVD View Post
No current studios supporting HD DVD at the time were interested in 51GB Discs. Warner was happy enough to release movies using VC1 (which they still do off and on). Universal didn't seem to care and Paramount never had any issues. Even today Warners encodes are notoriously low (in size).

Disney was the one who wanted a bigger disc and I'm sure if they signed on the HD DVD camp would have made in a reality. Just like we never thought BD replication would get fixed back then. We're once again talking about a format that ceased all development in January 2008.

3D could have been a work around. New discs etc. Owners are required to buy new 3D Capable BD players anyway so who cares if they were not compatible with existing HD DVD decks. Buy a new one! Blu-ray has gone through so many spec changes over the years that the bleeding edge consumer who didn't want a video game console in their HT would likely be on there 5th or 6th one by now (1.0, 1.1, 2.0, "Apps", 3D etc).
The test triple layer HD DVD discs Toshiba made were specifically aimed at gaining Disney's support. No other studio requested them at all.

No doubt that HD DVD would have gotten better over time but it did not have as much room to grow as Blu-ray did.
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Old 05-31-2012, 09:41 PM   #3084  
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You keep going on about how it was the yields that Warner was waiting for, but you're the only one I've heard that one from. Maybe it was like Adam said, that Warner was going to go HD DVD up to the last minute before something fell through (like a deal with Fox going HD DVD at the same time). I really don't think Warner was worried long term about the yields and that it played no part in their decision. Either format would have been fine with them.
Well it was the major argument the HD DVD side was making to Warner and when it was no longer valid it make the case for HD DVD weaker.

It was true that Warner did not want to go HD DVD only without Fox as well and there was hope at the time that Fox was coming along to HD DVD as well at least by being dual format.

A lot of the HD DVD people thought the reason Warner decided against HD DVD was that Sony offered Warner more money and additional subsidies for Blu-ray replication and marketing expenses as well as straight cash, but AFAIK that has never been proven.
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Old 05-31-2012, 09:48 PM   #3085  
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Originally Posted by GizmoDVD View Post
It all comes down to money and free discs.

Only the most naive person would think there was a. No money offered and b. No other "incentive" (i.e. free discs, advertising etc.).

The formats made next to nothing in sales. $200 million to go exclusive is a ton of money.
I think that as a minimum Warner got a deal for cut rate replication at Sony DADC even though they were with Cinram at the time and so,e marketing support. AFAIK the $200 M was never confirmed.

Warner was more interested in the long term than the short term.



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Shit, I bet if HD DVD came back today there would be a studio or two jumping at that just looking at the pathetic Blu-ray numbers. Man, gotta wonder if Warner really thought Blu-ray would be so low 4 years after they went Blu.
I know that through 2010 Blu-ray did more than what either HD DVD or Blu-ray was projected to do combined in every scenario that HD DVD folks used or that they saw that the BDA was giving to the studios.
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Old 05-31-2012, 09:50 PM   #3086  
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I know that through 2010 Blu-ray did more than what either HD DVD or Blu-ray was projected to do combined in every scenario that HD DVD folks used or that they saw that the BDA was giving to the studios.
Your hyperbole is really running full throttle today.
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Old 05-31-2012, 10:31 PM   #3087  
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30GB in 2008. You seem to forget HD DVD is frozen in time. They were working on 51GB Discs and if they came out, what would be the problem? No lossless? Again, 2008.

What next? What else can you put on a format that died 4.5 years ago.
Quote:
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The test triple layer HD DVD discs Toshiba made were specifically aimed at gaining Disney's support. No other studio requested them at all.

No doubt that HD DVD would have gotten better over time but it did not have as much room to grow as Blu-ray did.
Amir squashed the rumors of TL51 at AVS at the time and recently did so again over at Home Theater Forum.

http://www.hometheaterforum.com/t/30...0#post_3932108

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And the really funny thing is that the only thing that really ended up being "science fiction" was those triple layer HD DVDs
A rumor of which that I consistently put down as not in the cards. Shame to see you not point that out.
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Old 05-31-2012, 11:29 PM   #3088  
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Amir squashed the rumors of TL51 at AVS at the time and recently did so again over at Home Theater Forum.

http://www.hometheaterforum.com/t/30...0#post_3932108
Looks like Amir didn't know everything about the HD DVD 51 G disc . . .

November 15, 2007 DVD Forum Approvals

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Approval of
DVD Specifications for High Density Read-Only Disc [HD DVD-ROM (51G)] Part 1 Physical Specifications, Version 2.0
http://www.dvdforum.org/40scmtg-resolution.htm
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Old 05-31-2012, 11:35 PM   #3089  
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Amir squashed the rumors of TL51 at AVS at the time and recently did so again over at Home Theater Forum.

http://www.hometheaterforum.com/t/30...0#post_3932108
I do not see anything there that contradicts that Toshiba was working on triple layer discs and that they were meant to entice Disney, but even Disney did not want them. It was deemed not necessary at the time by any studios as the main movie would fit on a dual layer 30 GB disc and another disc could easily be used for extras.

There is a difference between them being technologically feasible and making good business sense to be used.
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Old 05-31-2012, 11:36 PM   #3090  
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The test triple layer HD DVD discs Toshiba made were specifically aimed at gaining Disney's support. No other studio requested them at all.

No doubt that HD DVD would have gotten better over time but it did not have as much room to grow as Blu-ray did.
And here we are, almost 6 years after the intro of BD and what "growth" has BD shown as far as technical specs?

1. Still 50GB ROM dual layer max
2. No change in the max bit rate
3. No Deep Color

The only change they made is 3D BD and all they do is spin the disc at 2X speed.

If you are going to sell something Kosty . . . you better have more than just Snake Oil to peddle.
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