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Optical (Blu-ray/DVD) and Digital (EST/UV) Sales Thread

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Old 11-28-2011, 04:38 PM   #286
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Originally Posted by GizmoDVD View Post
So people who wanted the DVD paid more money to get it plus a disc they would never watch? Doubtful. Disney lost tens of millions. It's brutal.
It is a pretty hard stretch to look at POTCs pedigree and box office and not see that money was left on the table. Granted there are a few who will try very hard to spin it that way as even poor results cannot be publicly acknowledged due to paid PR influence in the information chain (Home Media Magazine).


If Disney had to offer explanation for Toy Story 3s performance (calling the conversion rate sobering), I can only imagine what the view of POTC 4s performance is.

Last edited by PSound; 11-28-2011 at 06:10 PM..
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Old 11-28-2011, 05:41 PM   #287
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Disney did not have to offer an explanation of Toy Story 3's performance there as those comments you were referring to were made before the title was even released last year. No one is disputing that theatrical conversion rates are down from when DVD was at its peak even allowing for the 3D box office revenue premium which complicates newer release conversion rate comparisons.
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Old 11-28-2011, 05:49 PM   #288
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Disney was talking about performance from even 3 years ago, which was off of DVDs peak.

The decline in new release conversion rate has not stemmed YoY. That is why major studios are laying people off in Home Video, and adjusting the cost structure of their films.

No amount of PR changes those facts.
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Old 11-28-2011, 06:11 PM   #289
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Cars 2 sold over 3.5 million units in week 1 and did $50 million less in box office than Pirates 4, which did less than 1/2 of that in first week BD sales. If you add the estimated 200k DVD sales in week one, then you're still looking at only 1.9 million units, or about only 55% of what Cars 2 did in unit volume. If you factor in revenue share then it would still be under 60% of what Cars 2 did. That's terrible for a Franchise that's as well known as POTC is. POTC 3 did nearly 8.5 million DVD units + unknown BD units in week 1.

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Old 11-28-2011, 07:25 PM   #290
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Pirates 4 DVD didn't do so well, only 17% of HP7.2 week 2 sales overall. The DVD did take 82% of sales, which would be expected, but given normal HP attrition (considering it was a Friday release), perhaps only about 200k units were sold (inflated TN units of course).
Heh. Heh. Heh. I called this one from 10 miles away, on many occasions, since way back in June.

I said - "forcing an overwhelming majority of the population to purchase blu-ray (when they haven't chosen to do so after five years) may have inadvertant, negative consequences."

And... "But it will have unintended, negative consequences if it happens again and again. It may unintentionally hasten the end of optical disc sales. Or drive down prices. Forcing consumer adoption of a new format when less than 20% have adopted after 5 years has never been done before, AFAIK."

"It's not arrogance, it's commom sense". Disney should have listened...


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If the DVD were released the same time as the BD combo, sales probably would have been 3-4 times that much. Of course, some sales were gained by BD due to the window, but one wonders how many? After all, BD sales weren't all that impressive even without accounting for it being exclusive, selling less than Cars 4 and barely more than Captain America.

Looks like a lot of money was left on the table.
Everybody poster here knew it would end badly...Except one, of course.

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Cars 2 sold over 3.5 million units in week 1 and did $50 million less in box office than Pirates 4, which did less than 1/2 of that in first week BD sales. If you add the estimated 200k DVD sales in week one, then you're still looking at only 1.9 million units, or about only 55% of what Cars 2 did in unit volume. If you factor in revenue share then it would still be under 60% of what Cars 2 did. That's terrible for a Franchise that's as well known as POTC is. POTC 3 did nearly 8.5 million DVD units + unknown BD units in week 1.
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Old 11-28-2011, 07:40 PM   #291
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End of Q3 domestic streaming subs was 21.45 million.

End of Q4 projections are for 20-21.5 million.


On the DVD-by-mail side:

End of Q3 DVD-by-mail subs was 13.93 million.

End of Q4 projections are for 10.3 - 11.3 million.

Doesnt the 21.45 Million also include those who subscribe to both dvd and stream together? If not how many subscribe to both at the same time?
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Old 11-28-2011, 07:44 PM   #292
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Top 20 Nielsen ratios are up at HMM for week ending 11/20.

Pirates 4 DVD didn't do so well, only 17% of HP7.2 week 2 sales overall. The DVD did take 82% of sales, which would be expected, but given normal HP attrition (considering it was a Friday release), perhaps only about 200k units were sold (inflated TN units of course).

If the DVD were released the same time as the BD combo, sales probably would have been 3-4 times that much. Of course, some sales were gained by BD due to the window, but one wonders how many? After all, BD sales weren't all that impressive even without accounting for it being exclusive, selling less than Cars 4 and barely more than Captain America.

Looks like a lot of money was left on the table.

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/top...k-ended-112011

Yes they should have sold both at the same time. I wonder if they learned their lesson?
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Old 11-28-2011, 07:47 PM   #293
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Wow, HP week did only $54.22 million. That was way under even my supposedly pessimistic estimate of $70 million.

The follow up week did $39.27 million, BD up only 0.5%. It would have been negative, except for HP being a Friday release the week prior and week 2 sales helped.

Notice that DVD revenue in the latest week is still down 18% even though it's week 1 of POTC 4 for them. Barely registered a blip.

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/

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Old 11-28-2011, 08:01 PM   #294
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Wow, HP week did only $54.22 million. That was way under even my supposedly pessimistic estimate of $70 million.

The follow up week did $39.27 million, BD up only 0.5%. It would have been negative, except for HP being a Friday release the week prior and week 2 sales helped.

Notice that DVD revenue in the latest week is still down 18% even though it's week 1 of POTC 4 for them. Barely registered a blip.

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/
I should mention that it was 68.3% higher (up) than last hear.
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Old 11-28-2011, 08:05 PM   #295
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We do not even have any unit estimates yet for the DVD release.

The DVD release also has Black Friday and the rest of the holiday season to generate sales as well to the cost conscious DVD only buyers and retailers have the opportunity to discount it further to increase revenues. The entire holiday season sales period was clearly a part of the Disney strategy for the release as well as the Blu-ray promotional aspect of it that Disney gains from that you always want to ignore. That was an important part of the calculation as delaying the DVD only release obviously had a Blu-ray promotional component to it as well.

How many millions will Disney gain from increased family adoption of Blu-ray during the holiday season?

The BD+DVD skus were sold at a premium non discounted price so less units would generate more revenue than discounted DVDs at retail.

Other titles like Harry Potter seem to be selling well so the consumer preference for the specific title of POTC4 also seems to have something to do with its performance as well.
Did it Kosty? The earnings released for that week seem low??
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Old 11-28-2011, 08:05 PM   #296
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I should mention that it was 68.3% higher (up) than last hear.
That's true (thanks for pointing that out ), but it should have been more considering it was going up against "Grown Ups" from last year (or about 68% more in box office power among new releases)

Supposedly HP7.2 is going to be the biggest selling title of the year, and it results in only a $54 million week and $39 million follow up?
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Old 11-28-2011, 08:12 PM   #297
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I estimated $70 million because The-Numbers had $102.4 million just for the top 10. So TN is higher by over 88%. Wow, their "data" (guesses) just gets more outlandish as time goes on. Kinda like how Tom & Jerry evolved when Tex Avery came along.
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Old 11-28-2011, 08:13 PM   #298
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Did it Kosty? The earnings released for that week seem low??
Kosty predicted $90 - $99 million.

Wow.



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Old 11-28-2011, 08:16 PM   #299
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I estimated $70 million because The-Numbers had $102.4 million just for the top 10. So TN is higher by over 88%. Wow, their "data" (guesses) just gets more outlandish as time goes on.
If Deathly Hollows Part 1 has brought in $81.43 million after about seven months of release. Should be expect more than that for the 2nd part?

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Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 1 rose to fourth place with 282,000 units / $1.83 million for the week giving it totals of 6.09 million units / $81.43 million after about seven months of release. At the moment, it is the second best selling DVD of the year. It has a shot at top spot, but Part 2 should overtake it shortly.
http://www.the-numbers.com/interacti...hp?newsID=6786

EDIT: Noticed these are DVD numbers.
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Old 11-28-2011, 08:16 PM   #300
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Last time I saw someone estimate total weekly blu-ray sales based on a single title estimate of DVD units from "the Numbers" and Nielsen percentages, he was off by $30 million.

Not saying I doubt $80 million. Seems about right. Could very well be. Just sayin' is all.
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