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Optical (Blu-ray/DVD) and Digital (EST/UV) Sales Thread

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Old 10-22-2011, 05:02 PM   #16  
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Oh yes those would be absolutely huge. 1 million plus units first week easy on each of those. Good movies sell well on disc. Its the crap that just needs to go to the sewer. LOL.

I bet if Titanic came out say a week before thanksgiving it would sell at least 3 million first week next year.
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Old 10-22-2011, 05:26 PM   #17  
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Oh yes those would be absolutely huge. 1 million plus units first week easy on each of those. Good movies sell well on disc. Its the crap that just needs to go to the sewer. LOL.

I bet if Titanic came out say a week before thanksgiving it would sell at least 3 million first week next year.
Yeah I'm surprised Titanic hasn't come out yet. I though for sure it would get released before Star Wars. I agree it'll move a lot of units and I'd be stunned if it didn't come out next year.

Finding Nemo will do well of course, but predictable as it's a Pixar title and they always do well.

Not sure about Jaws, I know it's a great movie and a cult classic, but I don't think sales will be on par as Finding Nemo or Titanic.
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Old 10-22-2011, 06:52 PM   #18  
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Yeah I'm surprised Titanic hasn't come out yet. I though for sure it would get released before Star Wars. I agree it'll move a lot of units and I'd be stunned if it didn't come out next year.

Finding Nemo will do well of course, but predictable as it's a Pixar title and they always do well.

Not sure about Jaws, I know it's a great movie and a cult classic, but I don't think sales will be on par as Finding Nemo or Titanic.
Titanic in 3D
Jaws is something I am leary about as High def might expose the flaws in jaws.
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Old 10-22-2011, 07:14 PM   #19  
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Titanic in 3D
Jaws is something I am leary about as High def might expose the flaws in jaws.
Titanic in 3D would be awesome. I need to get a 3DTV by next year, hopefully by the time that comes out.

Jaw3D would be wild as well (I think about the promo in BTTF 2 about Jaws 17, lol).
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Old 10-22-2011, 07:54 PM   #20  
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But I do see your point in that a lot of the heavy hitters have already been released:

Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
Fast Five
Thor
X-Men: First Class

After POTC4, there's less heavy box office power remaining than what's been released already.
Yep.

My thought is that Blu-ray is looking great and will continue to look great at least through POTC, and possibly even up to when HP is released on 11/11. But then the BD wad has pretty much been shot for the rest of the year.

After that the comparisons are going to be much tougher and that will be reflected in YoY growth trends.
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Old 10-25-2011, 11:34 AM   #21  
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Latest numbers are up...
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Old 10-25-2011, 12:03 PM   #22  
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OD still down 2.37% despite a box office power improvement of 47% over last year. Blu-ray is up 42% though, but it loses significant in light of the better titles compared to last year.

I'll update the table later this evening.
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Old 10-25-2011, 12:21 PM   #23  
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Hey bruce, can you compare thenumbers with HMM. I noticed that thenumbers had bluray top 10 over $100 million for the week ending 10/15 I think. Seems awefully high. Maybe it was the week before I am not sure.

BTW I think this week with JP and some legs for Pirates is gonna be HUGE.
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Old 10-25-2011, 12:27 PM   #24  
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OD still down 2.37% despite a box office power improvement of 47% over last year. Blu-ray is up 42% though, but it loses significant in light of the better titles compared to last year.

I'll update the table later this evening.
I can't help but notice that BD growth is lagging release strength growth, even while it continues to cannibalize from DVD.

When the impact of the strong catalog releases subside and the relative strength of release shifts post 11/11, will we see flat to negative BD growth?
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Old 10-25-2011, 03:15 PM   #25  
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Hey bruce, can you compare thenumbers with HMM. I noticed that thenumbers had bluray top 10 over $100 million for the week ending 10/15 I think. Seems awefully high. Maybe it was the week before I am not sure.

BTW I think this week with JP and some legs for Pirates is gonna be HUGE.
Sure, I'll post a table comparing thenumbers vs. HMM. It's been running really high compared to HMM, and I think it's exceeded it 5 weeks in a row now. In fact, every week when there are some top titles out, thenumbers estimates are higher than HMM, so I look for that tread to continue through the end of the year. Bottom line is that obviously those estimates are either high, or HMM is way low. But since HMM has correlated very well with the DEG the last 4 quarters, that makes it almost certain thenumbers are way too high (and probably always has been). So therefore take them with a huge grain of salt, as they are perhaps 40-50% high from what I can guess.

Week 1 Pirates HMM will be out next week so that should be one of the top weeks of the year for Blu-ray. I would think over 100 million and anything less is a huge disappointment, because DVD isn't selling POTC4 until next month.
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Old 10-25-2011, 03:29 PM   #26  
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I can't help but notice that BD growth is lagging release strength growth, even while it continues to cannibalize from DVD.

When the impact of the strong catalog releases subside and the relative strength of release shifts post 11/11, will we see flat to negative BD growth?

It's really hard to say. Blu-ray has been responding well to strong YoY BO comparison, as a growing format obviously should. It hasn't done that well this year, when it's been flat or in declining BO power, as was the case in the first 6 months. For example, in Q2 BO was down less than 5% but BLu-ray's growth was still under 10%. In Q3 sales were up 50%, while box office was up 12.2%.

Q4 BO is way up so far and of course so is Blu-ray. It'll be interesting to see what the BO YoY is in the 2nd half of the quarter and how Blu-ray and OD respond. I'm more interested in optical disc performance as a whole, because one needs to see how Blu-ray's gains are affecting OD. For example, if DVD sales are plummeting twice as fast as Blu-ray is growing, and under flat YoY box office conditions (which by the end of the year, the TBO should be almost even with 2010 or slightly under), then that means that Blu-ray is catching only a fraction of DVD's attrition. The ideal scenario is Blu-ray outgrowing DVD's attrition, but that may not be realistic in this day and age. Should be interesting to watch and see how digital picks up some of the slack. Hopefully soon I can track OD vs. Digital sales and get a marketshare of digital vs. OD.
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Old 10-25-2011, 03:50 PM   #27  
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It's really hard to say. Blu-ray has been responding well to strong YoY BO comparison, as a growing format obviously should. It hasn't done that well this year, when it's been flat or in declining BO power, as was the case in the first 6 months. For example, in Q2 BO was down less than 5% but BLu-ray's growth was still under 10%. In Q3 sales were up 50%, while box office was up 12.2%.

Q4 BO is way up so far and of course so is Blu-ray. It'll be interesting to see what the BO YoY is in the 2nd half of the quarter and how Blu-ray and OD respond. I'm more interested in optical disc performance as a whole, because one needs to see how Blu-ray's gains are affecting OD. For example, if DVD sales are plummeting twice as fast as Blu-ray is growing, and under flat YoY box office conditions (which by the end of the year, the TBO should be almost even with 2010 or slightly under), then that means that Blu-ray is catching only a fraction of DVD's attrition. The ideal scenario is Blu-ray outgrowing DVD's attrition, but that may not be realistic in this day and age. Should be interesting to watch and see how digital picks up some of the slack. Hopefully soon I can track OD vs. Digital sales and get a marketshare of digital vs. OD.
Agree on all points. Post 11/11 week is going to show a lot regarding OD strength.

I hope we get more consistent EST reporting once UltraViolet is finished baking.
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Old 10-25-2011, 04:03 PM   #28  
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BTW...

I acquired UltraViolet copies of Horrible Bosses and Green Lantern (plus the add-in animated movie) for right around $3 each.

I can't imagine that is what the studios had in mind, but as long as they want to package it with each disc my guess is there will be individuals and rentailers who will be looking to make a few bucks by emailing out codes.
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Old 10-25-2011, 05:01 PM   #29  
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Sure, I'll post a table comparing thenumbers vs. HMM. It's been running really high compared to HMM, and I think it's exceeded it 5 weeks in a row now. In fact, every week when there are some top titles out, thenumbers estimates are higher than HMM, so I look for that tread to continue through the end of the year. Bottom line is that obviously those estimates are either high, or HMM is way low. But since HMM has correlated very well with the DEG the last 4 quarters, that makes it almost certain thenumbers are way too high (and probably always has been). So therefore take them with a huge grain of salt, as they are perhaps 40-50% high from what I can guess.

Week 1 Pirates HMM will be out next week so that should be one of the top weeks of the year for Blu-ray. I would think over 100 million and anything less is a huge disappointment, because DVD isn't selling POTC4 until next month.
Oh yeah. I believe it goes way over $100 million. No dvd to buy and no rental.
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Old 10-25-2011, 05:56 PM   #30  
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Here's the updated sales table.

Updated thru week ending 10/15/11
Table of Blu-ray sales (HMM and DEG)
numbers are in (revenue) millions.

Code:
2011 total  5815.80   -13.8%    4593.90   -20.4%    1271.90   22.1%    21.9%    6829.5  7379.3										
Week Date      OD     OD YoY      DVD    DVD YoY       BD    BD YoY  BD Share  TBO2011 TBO2010										

41  10/15    152.92    -2.4%     106.50   -14.1%      46.42   42.2%    30.4%     343.3   233.0
40  10/8     183.79     9.3%     109.87    -9.4%      73.92   57.7%    40.2%     248.6   257.6

Q3 total    1667.09    -4.9%    1298.39   -13.9%     368.70   49.9%    22.1%    1806.3  1609.5										

39  10/1     152.58   -14.3%     109.97   -20.4%      42.61    7.1%    27.9%     352.1   382.7
38  9/24     153.60     5.0%     108.69   -12.5%      44.91  103.6%    29.2%     169.3   112.5
37  9/17     164.69    14.0%     107.37   -14.2%      57.32  197.2%    34.8%     190.8   165.2
36  9/10     128.84     0.0%     102.29   -10.5%      26.55   82.9%    20.6%     189.3    60.3
35  9/3      119.04    -9.5%     100.87   -13.7%      18.17   23.5%    15.3%      65.6    95.1
34  8/27     109.34   -13.1%      91.74   -16.6%      17.60   11.5%    16.1%      12.6    45.3
33  8/20     124.53    -4.4%     101.11   -12.8%      23.42   63.3%    18.8%     100.8    81.2
32  8/13     122.13    -1.8%      98.44    -9.5%      23.69   51.8%    19.4%     118.0   143.9
31  8/6      139.66     1.4%     111.78    -3.6%      27.88   27.9%    20.0%     189.8   133.5
30  7/30     108.78   -18.3%      89.06   -20.2%      19.72   -8.7%    18.1%      56.8   177.2
29  7/23     120.50    -1.9%      97.25    -9.4%      23.25   49.9%    19.3%      88.3    72.7
28  7/16     118.09    -4.8%      94.88   -13.5%      23.21   61.7%    19.7%     267.8    94.7
27  7/9      105.31   -16.7%      84.94   -22.7%      20.37   22.9%    19.3%       5.1    45.2										
		
Q2 DEG      1831      -15.0%    1434      -18.8%     397       9.4%    21.7%
Q2 total    1791.55   -12.2%    1402.94   -16.7%     388.61    9.1%    21.7%    2314.8  2422.0

26  7/2      127.11   -12.3%      96.32   -21.6%      30.79   39.4%    24.2%     102.3   181.4
25  6/25     123.25    -7.7%      98.18   -12.8%      25.07   20.1%    20.3%     205.4    85.8
24  6/18     149.89   -11.2%     114.68   -17.7%      35.21   19.5%    23.5%     208.2   142.8
23  6/11     130.81   -13.6%     103.23   -18.6%      27.58   12.3%    21.1%     305.0   152.6
22  6/4      118.16   -34.1%      96.17   -32.8%      21.99  -39.1%    18.6%      15.8   386.8
21  5/28     113.83   -16.6%      91.37   -22.9%      22.46   24.9%    19.7%     154.4    87.9
20  5/21     111.98   -15.2%      91.84   -18.9%      20.14    7.2%    18.0%      99.8   185.7
19  5/14     111.02   -23.6%      90.00   -26.8%      21.02   -6.2%    18.9%     155.6   113.6
18  5/7      122.05   -25.2%      99.74   -29.5%      22.31   -7.7%    18.3%     141.5   106.1
17  4/30     106.99   -40.6%      86.94   -39.6%      20.05  -44.5%    18.7%       0.0   120.5
16  4/23     217.30    -8.3%     171.47    -0.3%      45.83  -29.4%    21.1%     187.5   841.3
15  4/16     184.50    48.7%     134.40    24.8%      50.10  205.3%    27.2%     314.8     8.1
14  4/9      174.66    21.6%     128.60     5.9%      46.06  107.5%    26.5%     424.5     9.4
										
Q1 DEG      2068      -20.0%    1661      -25.0%     407      10.0%    19.7%		
Q1 total    2020.45   -23.2%    1626.20   -28.4%     394.25    9.4%    19.5%    2116.5  2857.2

13  4/2      192.11   -36.0%     144.16   -44.6%      47.95   20.1%    25.0%     300.9   461.1
12  3/26     135.54   -49.8%     110.21   -50.9%      25.33  -44.1%    18.7%     218.0   335.6
11  3/19     138.72   -46.5%     112.58   -49.6%      26.14  -27.1%    18.8%     154.2   534.3
10  3/12     146.96   -24.4%     116.11   -30.8%      30.85   16.5%    21.0%     177.0   247.2
9   3/5      174.59    -7.2%     132.93   -15.4%      41.66   34.1%    23.9%     112.3   258.8
8   2/26     160.96     4.5%     130.35    -2.5%      30.61   50.7%    19.0%     258.0    74.9
7   2/19     172.68    -8.1%     143.99   -12.7%      28.69   25.0%    16.6%      86.2    80.1
6   2/12     172.00   -19.4%     145.34   -23.1%      26.66    8.9%    15.5%     224.0   211.0
5   2/5      158.26   -16.7%     131.08   -20.8%      27.18   11.1%    17.2%      23.0   114.6
4   1/29     151.21   -14.6%     122.05   -20.9%      29.16   27.6%    19.3%     201.2   151.6
3   1/22     131.62   -16.3%     107.98   -21.0%      23.64   14.8%    18.0%      60.7    61.0
2   1/15     135.49   -17.3%     108.51   -23.9%      26.98   27.0%    19.9%     143.3   137.8
1   1/8      150.31   -14.1%     120.91   -19.5%      29.40   18.6%    19.6%     157.7   189.2

OD = optical disc (DVD + Blu-ray)
YoY = year over year percentage change
TBO = total box office
BD = Blu-ray
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