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Old 05-15-2012, 07:58 PM   #2956  
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Just to make sure my information is current I just sent out a few emails tonight to some contacts that should know if the sales pattern I described above is accurate still especially with Blu-ray taking a greater and greater share of new release first week sales. Also if the pattern is different for major tentpoles than average titles.

I'll check with some local retail contacts tomorrow as well.
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Old 05-20-2012, 02:12 AM   #2957  
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LOL. Prove it. Expectations from studios bs. THey expected much more. You don't spend hundereds of millions on a movie to watch it flop at the home video level.

THis was a bd demo movie in every facet. PS3 crowd, Tom Cruise action.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
Just saw the data.

That's obviously on the low side of expectations for the revenue side for Blu-ray.

Expectations for the week were in the line of $28 M on the low side to around $36 M on the high side since there were no titles from previous weeks to add into the totals for this weeks revenues.

The YoY comparisons were going to be tough anyway as this was going against Easter 2011 and first full week of Harry Potter 7.1 and trailing weeks of Tangled and Tron Legacy, but the Blu-ray revenues are at the very low end of expectations.

Things to note is that this is the first week after a couple lame weeks so there was no carry over. Its also a Sat-Sun sequence in the HMM data so the MI4 Sunday sales all into the next week (while the Nielsen Videoscan and The-Numbers data does not) and the Sunday was the Best Buy promotional placement for the title that goes into next week.

HMM is estimating that about a million Blu-ray skus and 1.4 million total OD units were sold in the first week including the Sunday according to multiple sources, but of course those Sunday sales don't get booked until next week.

The thing that was unusual this week is that the sales of Blu-ray titles this week in the 26-50 slots, ie outside the Top 25 was especially low this week and a significant drop off from the week before. Not sure if the recent Easter Sunday had something to do with that.

This week the titles besides MI4 were especially low in volume and there is not a clear explanation of why that was the case. In fact the 20-25 slots this week were at 1/10th the volume of the week before which only had $23 million.

So it really seems that it was not so much that Mission Impossible Ghost Protocol sold poorly, it was that nothing much else sold much at all for either DVD or Blu-ray this week.

Some of the MI4 revenues will show up in next weeks HMM revenue numbers but will be captured by The-Numbers which includes the extra Sunday day sales, so it might take until we see next weeks numbers until we can see the full revenue effect of that title.

To be clear, these are numbers that are below my expectations. I expected something along the lines of $33-35 million in the HMM Sun-Sat week based on the Nielsen Videoscan index numbers.
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Old 05-20-2012, 02:27 AM   #2958  
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So bd is up 6.9% for the year. I guess my 10% for the whole year is still looking like a reality. Of course yet again I was being labled a doom and gloomer. Hope that bd can have a strong 2nd half to make up for the failure it has done so far this year.

The peak is this year. So easy to see.
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Old 05-20-2012, 09:02 AM   #2959  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chipvideo View Post
So bd is up 6.9% for the year. I guess my 10% for the whole year is still looking like a reality. Of course yet again I was being labled a doom and gloomer. Hope that bd can have a strong 2nd half to make up for the failure it has done so far this year.

The peak is this year. So easy to see.
Lots of year left so don't count your pessimistic chickens before they are hatched.

For that matter still a lot of 2Q left to book.

The YoY metric at this moment has been hammered in the last 6 weeks as the 2Q TBO is currently down -43.49% YoY.

As hardly any 2012 theatrical releases have hit home video yet, but the 2012 releases are way up in box office so far this year, when they start hitting homw video that factor will dramatically change. January theatrical movies are just starting to show up as home video releases.

2Q 2012 $612.27 M TBO

2Q 2011 $1083.52 M TBO

-$471.25 M TBO -43.49%

That has driven down the cumulative YoY metric so far in the 2Q dramatically.

Last year as major 2QTD releases we had Tangled (week 2) , Tron: Legacy and Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I and The Green Hornet.

This year 2QTD we have had only Mission Impossible Ghost Protocol.


Last edited by Kosty; 05-20-2012 at 11:54 AM..
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Old 05-20-2012, 09:22 AM   #2960  
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Lol, 6.9% up is for the year, not just the first 6 weeks in the 2nd quarter. And BTW, HMM has given up only the first 5 weeks of the quarter, not 6.

Sure, box office is down 43% for those 5 weeks, but Blu-ray is down 22.7% as well. One could say, hey that's no so shabby, down only about half of what the box office is, but Blu-ray is down more than even DVD is. That kinda makes you go "whoa". Especially since the top title this quarter was highly favorable to Blu-ray (in fact it got a 67% week one share). And DVD is still kicking its butt?! Wow.

But back to what Chip was saying about Blu-ray being up only 6.9% (I just had to put your "box office down 43%" in its proper perspective first). Box office for the year is down only 6.5%, less than the 8.2% it was down all last year. And Blu-ray was up 20% last year under those -8.2% box office conditions. So this year, considering it's up much less under improved box office, it is doing much worse.
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Old 05-20-2012, 11:54 AM   #2961  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
Lol, 6.9% up is for the year, not just the first 6 weeks in the 2nd quarter. And BTW, HMM has given up only the first 5 weeks of the quarter, not 6.

Sure, box office is down 43% for those 5 weeks, but Blu-ray is down 22.7% as well. One could say, hey that's no so shabby, down only about half of what the box office is, but Blu-ray is down more than even DVD is. That kinda makes you go "whoa". Especially since the top title this quarter was highly favorable to Blu-ray (in fact it got a 67% week one share). And DVD is still kicking its butt?! Wow.

But back to what Chip was saying about Blu-ray being up only 6.9% (I just had to put your "box office down 43%" in its proper perspective first). Box office for the year is down only 6.5%, less than the 8.2% it was down all last year. And Blu-ray was up 20% last year under those -8.2% box office conditions. So this year, considering it's up much less under improved box office, it is doing much worse.
He mentioned the -6.9% YoY figure first so I assumed he actually knew what he was talking about. I clearly stated that its the 2Q results that has driven down the cumulative Blu-ray YoY metric.

As I stated above, Blu-ray is way down as a result not only because of the TBO disparity but also because of the number and type or releases.

It will recover as the 2012 theatrical titles start hitting home video and we start seeing their results on the metrics.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty
Last year as major 2QTD releases we had Tangled (week 2) , Tron: Legacy and Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I and The Green Hornet.

This year 2QTD we have had only Mission Impossible Ghost Protocol.
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Old 05-20-2012, 11:58 AM   #2962  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bruceames
Lol, 6.9% up is for the year, not just the first 6 weeks in the 2nd quarter. And BTW, HMM has given up only the first 5 weeks of the quarter, not 6.
I included the chart so I understand that we only have 5 weeks of 2Q data and that 6.9% is the YoY number, so did he.

His point was 6.9% for year was horrible, my point was 6.9% for the year is a temporary situation because of the TBO and release strength and genre disparity in the 2QTD that has crushed that metric in the recent past.




Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty
The YoY metric at this moment has been hammered in the last 6 weeks as the 2Q TBO is currently down -43.49% YoY.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bruceames
Lol, 6.9% up is for the year, not just the first 6 weeks in the 2nd quarter. And BTW, HMM has given up only the first 5 weeks of the quarter, not 6.
I did not say we have 6 weeks of data in the 2Q. We only have 5 so far.

What I did say is that the YoY metric has been hammered in the last 6 weeks, which it has and that includes the last week of 1Q.

For a three week period Q1 week 13 - Q2 week 3) the TBO was down an amazing $685.52 M from last year and the last few weeks have only slightly came back. Those are the weeks were Tangled, Tron Legacy and Harry Potter 7.1 helped last year.

Code:
 
TBO change  TBOchange%        Week   Date

 -45.30	-30.14%		18	05/06/12
  67.87	   ∞		        17	04/29/12
  43.06	  22.79%		16	04/22/12
-264.57	-83.64%		15	04/15/12
-272.31	-63.63%		14	04/08/12			
			Q1	 
-148.74	-46.56%		13	04/01/12





Last edited by Kosty; 05-20-2012 at 12:26 PM..
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Old 05-20-2012, 02:49 PM   #2963  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
He mentioned the -6.9% YoY figure first so I assumed he actually knew what he was talking about. I clearly stated that its the 2Q results that has driven down the cumulative Blu-ray YoY metric.

As I stated above, Blu-ray is way down as a result not only because of the TBO disparity but also because of the number and type or releases.

It will recover as the 2012 theatrical titles start hitting home video and we start seeing their results on the metrics.

So box office down 6.5% is a "disparity"? That's not the term I remember you using when it was up more than that earlier in the year. Oh wait, you didn't mention it at all.

And what about the number of releases? How are they affecting sales? Are you saying they are down?

I don't see any evidence that the releases this year are worse for Blu-ray than last year. In fact, I see the opposite. 8 action movies (listed as action first by IMDb) have been released ($25+ BO) so far this year, vs. just one last year (Machete- at $26.6 million BO).

A small summary of the "weak" Blu-ray genres:

Comedy: 2012-->$225.1 million, 2011-->$775.7 million
Drama/Bio: 2012--> $464.8, 2011-->$533.9
Horror: 2012--> $104.0, 2011---> $171.2
Romance: 2012--> $0, 2011--> $176.9
Family/musical: 2012-->$162.0, 2011--> $198.0
Twilight: 2012--> $276.7, 2011--> $0

Total not so favorable: 2012--> $1232.6, 2011--> $1855.7


The "favorable" Blu-ray genres:

Action/Adventure/Sci-Fi/Thriller: 2012--> $779.4, 2011--> $574.4
Animation/Fantasy: 2012: $529.3, 2011--> $478.1
Crime: 2012--> $137.6, 2011--> $57.7

Total favorable: 2012-->$1446.3, 2011-->$1110.2

Total all $25+ million BO: 2012--> $2678.9, 2011--> $2965.9

Percentage favorable 2012: 54.0%

Percentage favorable 2011: 37.4%


Now I see why you didn't bother to come up with any proof to your many claims that this year has been less favorable to Blu-ray in terms of genre.



YTD 2011 releases (through 5/8/11) with $25 million box office
Code:
Adventure	294.1	Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1
Animation	200.8	Tangled
Sci-Fi	172.1	Tron: Legacy
Comedy	148.4	Little Fockers
Animation	147.9	Megamind
Drama	138.0	King's Speech, The
Comedy	117.2	Jackass 3
Drama	107.0	Black Swan
Fantasy	104.3	Chronicles of Narnia, The: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader
Comedy	100.5	Due Date
Family	100.2	Yogi Bear
Comedy	97.1	Green Hornet, The
Biography	93.2	Social Network, The
Drama	92.9	Fighter, The
Comedy	89.5	Red
Horror	84.5	Paranormal Activity 2
Thriller	81.2	Unstoppable
Comedy	73.0	Dinner For Schmucks
Romance	67.6	Tourist, The
Family	58.8	Secretariat
Crime	57.7	Takers
Romance	53.4	Life as We Know It
Comedy	48.5	Dilemma, The
Horror	45.7	Saw 3D
Comedy	42.7	Gulliver's Travels
Horror	41.0	Last Exorcism, The
Musical	39.0	Burlesque
Drama	37.7	For Colored Girls
Drama	32.7	Hereafter
Drama	32.4	Love and Other Drugs
Comedy	31.0	Morning Glory
Romance	30.2	How Do You Know
Comedy	27.8	Switch, The
Action	26.6	Machete
Romance	25.7	You Again
Animation	25.1	Alpha and Omega

YTD 2012 releases with $25 million+ box office
Code:
Adventure	276.7	Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - Part 1, The
Action	209.4	Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol
Animation	149.1	Puss in Boots
Animation	130.9	Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked
Animation	108.1	Hop
Horror	104.0	Paranormal Activity 3
Crime	102.5	Girl With the Dragon Tatoo, The
Family	88.6	Muppets, The
Action	85.1	Real Steel
Action	83.5	Immortals
Drama	80.7	Descendants, The
Drama	79.8	War Horse
Action	78.0	Tower Heist
Animation	77.2	Adventures of Tintin, The
Thriller	75.7	Contagion
Drama	75.3	Moneyball
Comedy	74.2	Jack and Jill
Family	73.4	We Bought a Zoo
Action	66.5	Contraband
Animation	64.0	Happy Feet Two
Adventure	58.7	Hugo
Comedy	54.5	New Year's Eve
Drama	51.8	Footloose
Drama	41.0	Ides of March, The
Action	37.5	In Time
Biography	37.3	J. Edgar
Crime	35.1	Drive
Comedy	35.1	Very Harold & Kumar 3D Christmas, A
Drama	35.0	50/50
Drama	34.3	Courageous
Adventure	31.8	Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
Comedy	30.9	Joyful Noise
Comedy	30.4	Sitter, The
Drama	29.6	Iron Lady
Action	28.1	Abduction
Action	25.1	Killer Elite
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Last edited by bruceames; 05-20-2012 at 02:58 PM..
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Old 05-20-2012, 02:52 PM   #2964  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
I included the chart so I understand that we only have 5 weeks of 2Q data and that 6.9% is the YoY number, so did he.

His point was 6.9% for year was horrible, my point was 6.9% for the year is a temporary situation because of the TBO and release strength and genre disparity in the 2QTD that has crushed that metric in the recent past.
The weeks before the last six were just as influential in that 6.9%, but you're right, it is a temporary percentage. It could go up or it could go down.
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Old 05-20-2012, 03:45 PM   #2965  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
The weeks before the last six were just as influential in that 6.9%, but you're right, it is a temporary percentage. It could go up or it could go down.
The YoY cumulative metric was at +27.6% 6 weeks ago.

It dropped to +6.5% a -21.1% change in the HMM stats in a three week period.

That's where we had almost an $700 M box office disparity in three weeks where three tent poles from last year were unmatched.
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Old 05-20-2012, 03:56 PM   #2966  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bruceames
So box office down 6.5% is a "disparity"? That's not the term I remember you using when it was up more than that earlier in the year. Oh wait, you didn't mention it at all.

I was not referring to the overall YTD TBO.

I was referring to the 2Q TBO and even more so including the last week of 1Q 2012.

The box office is -43.49% in the 2Q down -$471.25 million in box office strength for 5 weeks.

Its down $-620 M in the last 6 weeks in the HMM TBO stats.

That sir is a disparity.

It will also be a temporary situation that will changes as 2012 theatrical movies hit home video.
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Old 05-20-2012, 04:06 PM   #2967  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
I was not referring to the overall YTD TBO.

I was referring to the 2Q TBO and even more so including the last week of 1Q 2012.

The box office is -43.49% in the 2Q down -$471.25 million in box office strength for 5 weeks.

Its down $-620 M in the last 6 weeks in the HMM TBO stats.

That sir is a disparity.

It will also be a temporary situation that will changes as 2012 theatrical movies hit home video.
Well you should have been referring to the overall box office. After all, it was in reply to Chip's reference of Blu-ray being up 6.9% for overall 2012. I could be mistaken, but I believe Lee calls that "moving the goal posts".
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Old 05-20-2012, 04:09 PM   #2968  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
Well you should have been referring to the overall box office. After all, it was in reply to Chip's reference of Blu-ray being up 6.9% for overall 2012. I could be mistaken, but I believe Lee calls that "moving the goal posts".
Or "cherry picking"
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Old 05-20-2012, 04:35 PM   #2969  
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Thank you for that compilation above.

But its not just the number count of the releases or the total TBO, its their overall strength genre and the number of tent poles.

Here is a breakdown of the over $100 M box office titles (or close to ) from your list.

There is an obvious advantage in the comparisons there now in favor of 2011 YTD that's far more explanatory than the count you did above.

Its sorted by general Blu-ray genre favorability as defined by typical genre Blu-ray marketshare.

You have in 2011 to date not quite double, 12 to 7, titles that grossed around $100 M or more. Plus there are four Blu-ray friendly high Blu-ray marketshare titles YTD in 2011 and only two in 2012.

Obviously there is a huge advantage there for 2011 that's much more that just adding up the box office totals of all the more minor releases.

There is a lot more tentpoles released in the 2011 data and a lot more 2:1 that were high Blu-ray marketshare genres.

Drama Horror and Crime now in green.

(Sorted by relative strength of genre for Blu-ray not by first week unit marketshare.)

Code:
2011 YTD

294.1  Adventure	Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1
172.1  Sci-Fi		Tron: Legacy
138.0  Drama		King's Speech, The
107.0  Drama		Black Swan
104.3  Fantasy		Chronicles of Narnia, The: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader
 97.1  Comedy		Green Hornet, The

200.8  Animation	Tangled
147.9  Animation	Megamind
100.2  Family		Yogi Bear

148.4  Comedy		Little Fockers
117.2  Comedy		Jackass 3
100.5  Comedy		Due Date
vs

Code:
2012 YTD

209.4  Action		Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol
104.0  Horror	        Paranormal Activity 3 (100% Blu-ray)
102.5  Crime	        Girl With the Dragon Tatoo, The

149.1  Animation	Puss in Boots
130.9  Animation	Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked
108.1  Animation	Hop

276.7  Adventure	Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - Part 1, The

Last edited by Kosty; 05-20-2012 at 10:54 PM.. Reason: corrected Paranormal Activity as 100% BD marketshare drama crime now in green
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Old 05-20-2012, 04:38 PM   #2970  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
Well you should have been referring to the overall box office. After all, it was in reply to Chip's reference of Blu-ray being up 6.9% for overall 2012. I could be mistaken, but I believe Lee calls that "moving the goal posts".
I thought that I was clear that it was the recent weeks that had hammered the YoY metric.

What in the heck is unclear in this post that I was talking about the 2Q TD and last six weeks box office disparity?

I mean I even included the 2012 table with under over $250 M TBO weeks highlighted.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty


The YoY metric at this moment has been hammered in the last 6 weeks as the 2Q TBO is currently down -43.49% YoY.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
Lots of year left so don't count your pessimistic chickens before they are hatched.

For that matter still a lot of 2Q left to book.

The YoY metric at this moment has been hammered in the last 6 weeks as the 2Q TBO is currently down -43.49% YoY.

As hardly any 2012 theatrical releases have hit home video yet, but the 2012 releases are way up in box office so far this year, when they start hitting home video that factor will dramatically change. January theatrical movies are just starting to show up as home video releases.

2Q 2012 $612.27 M TBO

2Q 2011 $1083.52 M TBO

-$471.25 M TBO -43.49%

That has driven down the cumulative YoY metric so far in the 2Q dramatically.

Last year as major 2QTD releases we had Tangled (week 2) , Tron: Legacy and Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I and The Green Hornet.

This year 2QTD we have had only Mission Impossible Ghost Protocol.


Last edited by Kosty; 05-20-2012 at 04:43 PM..
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