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Old 05-15-2012, 04:12 PM   #2941  
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Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
Remember Mission Impossible Ghost Protocol nothing helping from the two weeks before it and nothing much after so it was pretty much on its own and its impact was spread over two weeks with the HMM Sun-Sat revenue stats.

When the better releases start coming them will have some residual sales of the previous weeks adding on and the Sunday release week sales as well as 2nd 3rd week cascading for additional revenues as well.

Act of Valor John Carter and Sherlock Holmes weeks should be much better but even the next few weeks are an improvement.
Mission Impossible didn't hardly help the weeks following it ($25 and $22 million, respectively) , so why should something else before it help that much? Especially when it's likely to be lesser box office power stuff. $200+ BO movies don't come out that often you know.

Week 2 attrition on top titles is close to 80 percent, so it's not like there's a whole lot left to help the following week. We're talking only about 200-300k sales here, about $4-6 million perhaps? Likely much less, since those are The-Numbers figures and we all know how much they are inflated. And note that Mission week 2 wasn't even in first place anymore, owned by a title that did less than 1/3 the box office. I'm still surprised as to how little effect Mission had on the BD bottom line ($28 million? come on now), ESPECIALLY considering that it got a huge 67 percent BD week 1 share.

Last edited by bruceames; 05-15-2012 at 04:24 PM..
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Old 05-15-2012, 04:44 PM   #2942  
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Here is the same table with the (weighted) yearly totals as well. Again, notice how the top 20 revenue share as almost exactly double the overall share, and that the top 20 unit share is very consistently about 1.58 times the overall revenue share.

Therefore, according to this remarkably consistent ratio trend, for every 1.58 percent that the T20 market share rises, the overall share rises 1 percent. Doing the math then, if the OD top 20 were maxed out at 100 percent Blu-ray, then the overall BD revenue share (as reported by HMM or DEG) would still only be 63 percent.

Code:
Year	T20units TotRev	T20rev	Revenue
Q109	10.6%	7.0%	13.3%	$160
Q209	10.7%	8.5%	13.4%	$187
Q309	14.0%	9.8%	17.5%	$200
Q409	22.1%	13.0%	27.6%	$522
2009Tot	16.9%	10.7%	21.1%	$1,069

Q110	24.0%	13.7%	30.0%	$370
Q210	28.2%	17.0%	35.3%	$363
Q310	22.8%	14.7%	28.5%	$267
Q410	31.4%	20.6%	39.3%	$800
2010Tot	28.0%	17.6%	35.0%	$1,800

Q111	32.4%	19.7%	40.5%	$407
Q211	34.7%	21.7%	43.4%	$397
Q311	34.6%	24.2%	43.3%	$422
Q411	43.4%	27.0%	54.3%	$925
2011Tot	38.0%	24.1%	47.5%	$2,151

Q112	36.2%	23.8%	45.3%	$479
Q212	38.6%	22.9%	48.3%	$144

Last edited by bruceames; 05-15-2012 at 04:53 PM..
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Old 05-15-2012, 05:07 PM   #2943  
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Well last year about that time was also a $400 box office week as well so its really something that has happened before.
What week was that, and how did it turn out?
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Old 05-15-2012, 05:16 PM   #2944  
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What week was that, and how did it turn out?
There was no $400 million box office week last year around that time or anywhere close to that time. I think the one he's referring to is $305 million True Grit week (WE 6/11) that did an amazing $27.58 million HMM.
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Old 05-15-2012, 05:23 PM   #2945  
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Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
There was no $400 million box office week last year around that time or anywhere close to that time. I think the one he's referring to is $305 million True Grit week (WE 6/11) that did an amazing $27.58 million HMM.
Yep. That is what I figured.

Thanks bruce.
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Old 05-15-2012, 06:49 PM   #2946  
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Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
Mission Impossible didn't hardly help the weeks following it ($25 and $22 million, respectively) , so why should something else before it help that much? Especially when it's likely to be lesser box office power stuff. $200+ BO movies don't come out that often you know.

Week 2 attrition on top titles is close to 80 percent, so it's not like there's a whole lot left to help the following week. We're talking only about 200-300k sales here, about $4-6 million perhaps? Likely much less, since those are The-Numbers figures and we all know how much they are inflated. And note that Mission week 2 wasn't even in first place anymore, owned by a title that did less than 1/3 the box office. I'm still surprised as to how little effect Mission had on the BD bottom line ($28 million? come on now), ESPECIALLY considering that it got a huge 67 percent BD week 1 share.
The HMM stats exclude the first Sunday so they do not have as much attrition in the second week as the The-Numbers or weekly HMM reported Nielsen/Videoscan first alert marketshares and index numbers.

So there is an offset in those sources.

Mission Impossible Ghost Protocol was a island to itself with not much in front of it or behind it to add in the weekly totals. MI4 impact was spread between its first two weeks but for both of them there was not much else there to help.


But looking at the rest of 2Q there starts to have some Blu-ray favorable title each week to cascade into the next so that should start adding up in the cascade in the next few weeks or months.

Last edited by Kosty; 05-15-2012 at 07:10 PM.. Reason: screwed up the first sentence
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Old 05-15-2012, 06:54 PM   #2947  
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Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
There was no $400 million box office week last year around that time or anywhere close to that time. I think the one he's referring to is $305 million True Grit week (WE 6/11) that did an amazing $27.58 million HMM.
Yeah, that was the one I was talking about. 305.0 TBO.

It did $27.58 M, but the next week in the HMM stats did $35.21 M as it was the start of a good release sequence and had nothing to add to it that week from previous weeks and some of its first week shows up in the following weeks HMM stats as the Sunday fall its to the next week in the Sun-Sat HMM revenue period.
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Old 05-15-2012, 07:00 PM   #2948  
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Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
Here is the same table with the (weighted) yearly totals as well. Again, notice how the top 20 revenue share as almost exactly double the overall share, and that the top 20 unit share is very consistently about 1.58 times the overall revenue share.

Therefore, according to this remarkably consistent ratio trend, for every 1.58 percent that the T20 market share rises, the overall share rises 1 percent. Doing the math then, if the OD top 20 were maxed out at 100 percent Blu-ray, then the overall BD revenue share (as reported by HMM or DEG) would still only be 63 percent.

Code:
Year	T20units TotRev	T20rev	Revenue
Q109	10.6%	7.0%	13.3%	$160
Q209	10.7%	8.5%	13.4%	$187
Q309	14.0%	9.8%	17.5%	$200
Q409	22.1%	13.0%	27.6%	$522
2009Tot	16.9%	10.7%	21.1%	$1,069

Q110	24.0%	13.7%	30.0%	$370
Q210	28.2%	17.0%	35.3%	$363
Q310	22.8%	14.7%	28.5%	$267
Q410	31.4%	20.6%	39.3%	$800
2010Tot	28.0%	17.6%	35.0%	$1,800

Q111	32.4%	19.7%	40.5%	$407
Q211	34.7%	21.7%	43.4%	$397
Q311	34.6%	24.2%	43.3%	$422
Q411	43.4%	27.0%	54.3%	$925
2011Tot	38.0%	24.1%	47.5%	$2,151

Q112	36.2%	23.8%	45.3%	$479
Q212	38.6%	22.9%	48.3%	$144
Neato calculation.

But things probably will not stay linear.

As Blu-ray gains more and more new release marketshare retailers and consumers will react differently and tipping points and virtuous circles and network effects take place.

Quote:
Originally Posted by bruceames
Therefore, according to this remarkably consistent ratio trend, for every 1.58 percent that the T20 market share rises, the overall share rises 1 percent. Doing the math then, if the OD top 20 were maxed out at 100 percent Blu-ray, then the overall BD revenue share (as reported by HMM or DEG) would still only be 63 percent.
But if Blu-ray is at 100% new release marketshare and consumers are still buying Billions and Billions of older release catalog titles on DVD and adding a legacy 37% extra DVD sales on top of Blu-ray sales in that situation, no one in the industry is going to complain.

But that situation if it ever happens is still a bit in the future.
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Old 05-15-2012, 07:02 PM   #2949  
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Originally Posted by mikemorel View Post
What week was that, and how did it turn out?
Week 23 last year.

The following week with less TBO actually did better as the True Grit Sunday and second week sales cascaded and helped Battle Los Angeles in the next week revenue numbers.

Whenever we see a good release after a lull of good releases, the HMM revenue stats always are lower compared to the TBO would indicate as those kind of weeks have no help from the previous weeks and spread some of their release week sales (Sunday) to the next week in the HMM stats. True Grit was like that last year, MI4 was like that this year.

In that kind of case , the lone ranger good release just has the routine catalog sales and 5 days of sales (Tue Wed Thur Fri Sat) in that HMM revenue figure.


Last edited by Kosty; 05-15-2012 at 07:09 PM..
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Old 05-15-2012, 07:08 PM   #2950  
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The HMM stats include the first Friday so they do not have as much attrition in the second week as the The-Numbers or weekly HMM reported Nielsen/Videoscan first alert marketshares and index numbers.
Don't you mean first Sunday? Assuming you do, that's true HMM first week is only five days, but sales generally decline in an exponential fashion from the first day (especially Tuesday more because of preorders). Sunday is nowhere near 1/6 of the weekly sales because of this (IMO).

So given that, week 2 attrition even HMM weeks is still very large. The exception of course is Friday releases.
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Old 05-15-2012, 07:12 PM   #2951  
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Neato calculation.

But things probably will not stay linear.

As Blu-ray gains more and more new release marketshare retailers and consumers will react differently and tipping points and virtuous circles and network effects take place.
So in your opinion, which is going to rise faster than the current 1.58:1 ratio if they don't stay linear, the T20 share or overall?
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Old 05-15-2012, 07:17 PM   #2952  
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Don't you mean first Sunday? Assuming you do, that's true HMM first week is only five days, but sales generally decline in an exponential fashion from the first day (especially Tuesday more because of preorders). Sunday is nowhere near 1/6 of the weekly sales because of this (IMO).

So given that, week 2 attrition even HMM weeks is still very large. The exception of course is Friday releases.
Yeah, what I meant to say was that the HMM revenue stats exclude the first Sunday in the release week so they have more second week sales and less first week sales than the HMM Nielsen Videoscan first alert charts or The-Numbers weekly charts.

Quote:
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Sunday is nowhere near 1/6 of the weekly sales because of this (IMO).
Sure it is. Its always better than mid week Wed or Thurs and sometimes it a leading day for a heavily advertised featured title in the weekly ads that come out on Sumday

Sunday is an above average day of the six.

Sunday could also even be the largest sales day of the first six days if its a release on a Tuesday or Friday but its a major event featured item on the Sunday weekend flyers from Best Buy or Target.


Generally the retail sales pattern is this for most of the year for a major release:

Tuesday is highest (routine weekly buys and pre orders)
Saturday (weekend shopping)
Sunday (weekend shopping - First day of Best Buy Target and Walmart weekly circulars)
Friday (start of weekend shopping out of workweek shopping)
Wednesday (mid week)
Thursday (mid week)
Monday

When its a Friday major release the pattern is:

Friday
Saturday
Sunday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Monday

Last edited by Kosty; 05-15-2012 at 07:33 PM..
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Old 05-15-2012, 07:26 PM   #2953  
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So you're saying that week 1 sales start off strong, then take a lull, and finish up strong on Sunday? I don't think so.
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Old 05-15-2012, 07:40 PM   #2954  
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So you're saying that week 1 sales start off strong, then take a lull, and finish up strong on Sunday? I don't think so.
We are talking about the pattern for a big major tentpole releaase.

First day sales (Tuesday or Friday) are always high.

The weekend days are always higher foot traffic to retail and most physical media buys are done in conjunction with other items in the shopping basket. Once you get past Tuesday when fans really looking for the hot title making a special trip , or always are in a routine of shopping on Tuesday new release day, the higher weekend traffic days take precedence.

Most consumers do not make a special trip to the store on Tuesday to buy the latest releases week after week. They buy physical media discs on their normal shopping days in the week. Retail foot traffic is larger on the weekends than on Wed or Thurs.

Tuesday is special as consumers know it new release day at retail or Redbox kiosks.
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Old 05-15-2012, 07:45 PM   #2955  
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So you're saying that week 1 sales start off strong, then take a lull, and finish up strong on Sunday? I don't think so.
Saturday is usually better than Sunday.

Unless the title is a headliner in the Best Buy and Target or Walmart circulars.

Monday Wednesday and Thursday are generally the slowest.

Amazon plays by its own rules because of how it can change prices and make sales easily.

Really strong releases and cult ish fan based titles usually released on Friday can vary a lot.
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