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Old 04-18-2012, 07:28 AM   #2536
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Well we did get an answer to this question in the following week right after the 1Q results in the first week of the 2Q when the TBO went to even. No need to imagine it as did get those kind of results.

Blu-ray +20.9% (week 13 EO1Q) TBO +12.85%

Blu-ray +18.4% (week 14 ) TBO +0.15%

So with the same box office strength Blu-ray was still up over +18% just a couple points lower than what it was with the TBO was +13% up the week before. Not that much of an ouch.
That's because of Easter. I guess you forgot.
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Old 04-18-2012, 08:01 AM   #2537
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That's because of Easter. I guess you forgot.
Which is why it is rank stupidity to take one week and try and extrapolate that to how the market would perform over a reporting period of a quarter.

Or rather it is at least rank stupidity to expect anyone to not see the obvious flaws with that approach.
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Old 04-18-2012, 08:14 AM   #2538
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Which is why it is rank stupidity to take one week and try and extrapolate that to how the market would perform over a reporting period of a quarter.

Or rather it is at least rank stupidity to expect anyone to not see the obvious flaws with that approach.
Even without Easter, I agree you can't take one week's behavior to use as a model.
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Old 04-18-2012, 08:26 AM   #2539
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Even without Easter, I agree you can't take one week's behavior to use as a model.
Yep.

Even a 2-3 weeks is not enough to declare anything definitive. You can often see potential developing trends that way, but you need a decent reporting period to understand if there a fundamental shift in the trends.
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Old 04-18-2012, 08:55 AM   #2540
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Yep.

Even a 2-3 weeks is not enough to declare anything definitive. You can often see potential developing trends that way, but you need a decent reporting period to understand if there a fundamental shift in the trends.
We always get wild swings this time of year, with offsetting Easters and top blockbusters, and with only 13-15 weeks in the year having passed. For example, next week the 2011 sheet will have box office even and Blu-ray up 23%. Meanwhile this year after week 15 will see box office down 9.4% and Blu-ray's YoY likely falling several percentage points more from its current 18.4%. Like you say, we really need a decent period (26 weeks at least) to get enough stability to where the data doesn't jump all over the place when a weird week like this one comes in. But from what we have so far and accounting for Easter, it looks like Blu-ray is about a 15% growth format and heading downward.

Last edited by bruceames; 04-18-2012 at 09:01 AM..
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Old 04-18-2012, 09:09 AM   #2541
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We always get wild swings this time of year, with offsetting Easters and top blockbusters, and with only 13-15 weeks in the year having passed. For example, next week the 2011 sheet will have box office even and Blu-ray up 23%. Meanwhile this year after week 15 will see box office down 9.4% and Blu-ray's YoY likely falling several percentage points more from its current 18.4%. Like you say, we really need a decent period (26 weeks at least) to get enough stability to where the data doesn't jump all over the place when a weird week like this one comes in. But from what we have so far and accounting for Easter, it looks like Blu-ray is about a 15% growth format and heading downward.
That is about what I get too.

I am curious where things will be in terms of box office lead-in and YTD growth at the end of Q3.

Last year was an unusually strong Q3.
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Old 04-18-2012, 02:53 PM   #2542
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Which is why it is rank stupidity to take one week and try and extrapolate that to how the market would perform over a reporting period of a quarter.

Or rather it is at least rank stupidity to expect anyone to not see the obvious flaws with that approach.
Its not rank stupidity for me to answer your hypocritical question when we have the data to answer the question or for me or anyone else to post something you do not agree with.

Its rude and baiting for you to state that and effectively call me stupid as I'm the only one here that you were responding too. But in this case I was not trying to take one week and extend it out.

If you were not talking about me, then my apologies in advance, but I certainly took it that way when you state comments like that to people that you are disagreeing with in this thread. Since you were obviously responding to my comments on the subject that's exactly the way I and others took it.


EDIT:

That was not just a single week either, it was the cumulative 1-13 weeks or 1-14 weeks period.


I do fully understand that the weekly variations matter a lot and that the Easter week and the last two weeks of poor TBO comparisons shifted things a lot. But earlier in the 1Q the single Twilight Saga release week shifted the TBO a lot also.

I was just pointing out that you had stated earlier the hypothetical question of what Blu-ray's YoY gain would be if the the TBO was even. This week we got the answer to that to a degree as the TBO went back to even and the Blu-ray YoY gain dropped a little but still was over 18%.
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Last edited by Kosty; 04-18-2012 at 05:27 PM.. Reason: That was not just a single week either, it was the cumulative 1-13 weeks or 1-14 weeks period.
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Old 04-18-2012, 02:58 PM   #2543
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That's because of Easter. I guess you forgot.
Of course it because of Easter, but the issue of where Blu-ray YoY gain would be with an even TBO. That disparity in box office the last two weeks gave us some sort of an answer.

Of course we have to realize that Easter as well as the Twilight Saga or any other tent pole releases affect the statistics dramatically and that we will never see a pure comparison across any period that does not have complicating factors.

But the observation remains that as of the moment the TBO is about even for the year and the Blu-ray YoY still remains between 18% and 19% in the HMM statistics.

Now that is likely to drop in the next couple weeks as we see the head to head comparisons with Harry Potter 7.1 next week and the Easter 2011 comparisons vs Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol the week after, but that's where it stands at the moment.
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Old 04-18-2012, 03:11 PM   #2544
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Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
Even without Easter, I agree you can't take one week's behavior to use as a model.
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Originally Posted by PSound View Post
Yep.

Even a 2-3 weeks is not enough to declare anything definitive. You can often see potential developing trends that way, but you need a decent reporting period to understand if there a fundamental shift in the trends.
Well the first quarter in general is a relatively slow time of the year for major releases, which is why a single powerful release like the every other year Twilight Saga 1Q releases have such a distorting effect on the YoY comparisons for the past couple years.

But over time things tend to balance out. Like when we look at the next three weeks in the sequence and look at weeks 1-16 we will by that time had the Twilight Saga title and Easter for both years accounted for and a Mission Impossible release to balance things out a bit.

In every case the longer the observational period the better the trend will be over time.

Seeing that BD and DVD and OD are already higher than they were last year, regardless of the strength of release improvement is a valid observation of the 14 week period. The issue is whether or not it is likely to continue.

Looking at individual weeks or a few weeks at a time in isolation is folly. Its only useful perhaps in comparing apples to apples to some sort of matching weeks with similar releases in the past.

Its really too early to see a lot of trends and to be able to project them to the rest of the year.

But we can see what performance there was in the past upcoming comparison weeks and look at the strength of the upcoming home video releases and see some likely conditions that in this case are a bit more favorable than what we saw for last year.
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Old 04-18-2012, 03:30 PM   #2545
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We always get wild swings this time of year, with offsetting Easters and top blockbusters, and with only 13-15 weeks in the year having passed. For example, next week the 2011 sheet will have box office even and Blu-ray up 23%. Meanwhile this year after week 15 will see box office down 9.4% and Blu-ray's YoY likely falling several percentage points more from its current 18.4%. Like you say, we really need a decent period (26 weeks at least) to get enough stability to where the data doesn't jump all over the place when a weird week like this one comes in. But from what we have so far and accounting for Easter, it looks like Blu-ray is about a 15% growth format and heading downward.
I agree with most of this except perhaps with your assessment of that percentage and its likely direction after we get into week 4 of the 2Q.

There is not a lot of high performing weeks in the 2Q or early 3Q left after we get past week 3 in the 2Q (week 16).

Once we get into the week 17-37 period the better box office performance of the 2012 theatrical releases have a chance to be compared against modest performing weeks from 2011.

Blu-ray is currently at a $38 M a week average performance (see the dashed green line on the chart below). Even if that drops in the 2Q and early 3Q it still compares pretty favorably to the $23.5 M average for the twenty weeks between 17-37 on the chart below.

That gives a good chance to gain some ground for both Blu-ray (and DVD) if better releases are coming in the pipeline and we do not have any major comparison weeks in 2011 coming up in that period like we had last year when the 2Q 2010 Avatar and Alice in Wonderland drove the metrics down.

What we get at the end of the Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol vs Easter 2011 + second week of Harry Potter 7.1 week will likely serve as a sticky base floor for the metric with some inertia to stay where it is or trend upwards in the rest of the 2Q and 3Q period until September.

Last year the YoY cumulative statistic was driven sharply downward by Avatar and Alice in Wonderland in the statistics. Nothing like that will happen this year in all likelihood.





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Last edited by Kosty; 04-18-2012 at 03:39 PM..
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Old 04-18-2012, 04:01 PM   #2546
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That's because of Easter. I guess you forgot.
I don't think anyone forgot-- you just don't read posts. As I said, Easter's $10-15M boost deserves the credit for maybe 1-1.5% of the 18% growth.

Quote:
Originally Posted by PSound View Post
Which is why it is rank stupidity to take one week and try and extrapolate that to how the market would perform over a reporting period of a quarter.

Or rather it is at least rank stupidity to expect anyone to not see the obvious flaws with that approach.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
Even without Easter, I agree you can't take one week's behavior to use as a model.
It's not 1 week though. It's a cume of 14 weeks. LOL's at you two.

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It looks like Blu-ray is about a 15% growth format and heading downward.
Hey wait- I thought you can't take a 14 week cume and use it as a model- that's "rank stupidity."

Last edited by cakefoo; 04-18-2012 at 04:05 PM..
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Old 04-18-2012, 04:07 PM   #2547
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you just don't read posts.
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It's not 1 week though. It's a cume of 14 weeks. LOL's at you two.
You may want to go back and read what was stated...
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Old 04-18-2012, 04:10 PM   #2548
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You may want to go back and read what was stated...
Ok I did. I had a severe case of deja vu because I already read it. Thanks for that though!
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Old 04-18-2012, 04:15 PM   #2549
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You guys need this spoonfed?
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Old 04-18-2012, 04:18 PM   #2550
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Can you imagine how low BD Q1 sell through would have been with the same box office lead-in strength as 2011? Ouch!
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Blu-ray +18.4% (week 14 ) TBO +0.15
That is not a one week sample, that is 14-weeks totaled. Take out 10-15M for the Easter boost and you still get around +16% growth.
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